Arkansas is a 15-point favorite over Hawaii in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in Portland, but I'm more interested in the over in this game than the side. I made the game 169, and the send-out was 161, and it's down to 158.5, making it an automatic play. Hawaii won the Big West Tournament and finished 24-8 on the season while scoring 79.6 points a game. Arkansas allows 80 points a game and scores 89.9 points a game while shooting 50% from the field. I expect both teams to score plenty and get over this total.
Arkansas deployed a seven-man rotation through the grind of an SEC Tournament that it won, with one game going to overtime. The Razorbacks are a threat to reach the Sweet 16, at least, but might need time to find their legs after an exhausting weekend. Hawai'i is no slouch defensively, with a No. 43 adjusted efficiency rating, and can keep a lid on the scoring. Earlier this season, the Rainbow Warriors threw a scare into other Power Five members, losing by a point to Oregon and by seven to Arizona State. They enter on a wave of six outright wins in the last seven games, capped by an upset of top seed UC-Irvine in the Big West finals.
Hawaii has impressive size that should be able to keep Arkansas off the boards and away from the rim, turning the Hogs into a shooting team. That's not ideal in a quick turnaround from cutting down nets in Nashville on Sunday to tipping it off in Portland on Thursday afternoon, where normally you'd want to rely on easy buckets to get into the flow of the game. And while Hawaii has size, its ball-handlers could be overwhelmed by Arkansas' athleticism on defense. Both teams playing with tempo on the year has this total above 160, but with empty possessions in the forecast the edge is to the under.
