The Seahawks’ utter dominance of the 49ers and their defense only allowing 6.33 ppg over the last three games make them legitimate favorites, but the Rams have proven to be their equal over two prior meetings. Los Angeles is an underdog due to the game location and a couple late hiccups, but there is a massive experience and trust edge at coach and QB, and the weaponry at the boundaries is superior. Sam Darnold is 1-4 against the Rams since the start of last season. In those games, he’s thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 16 times. L.A. is not only the play getting points, it is worth a sprinkle straight up at +120 or better.

Kyren Williams has 48 receiving yards on seven targets in two playoff games. Seattle has given up an average of 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Counting the postseason, Williams has cleared this prop total in five straight. The Seahawks possess an elite run defense. Look for Matthew Stafford to trust his veteran running back to move the chains as a receiver.

FanDuel. Matthews Stafford is coming off consecutive 42 pass attempt performances, and I see him poised for similar volume against the Seahawks. Seattle’s run defense ranks first in DVOA (per FTN) - and it doesn’t take much as is for the Rams to go pass heavy, as they rank third in neutral gamescript pass rate (61%, per Roto Viz). And the Seahawks are not a ball-control heavy offense, allowing their opponents 62.5 offensive plays per game (12th most). I expect Sean McVay to lean on his MVP candidate quarterback in this one. I’d bet this up to over 36.5.

When you add up the miles along the Rams journey to this championship game, they've played a ton of football in the last two weeks. Seattle's defense is playing its best and even without Zach Charbonnet in the backfield, Kenneth Walker should be more than capable to handle that extra workload. Look for Seattle's energy to outpace Los Angeles.

As regular-season meetings had a combined score of Rams 58 - Seahawks 57, both games decided on the final play, it's worth noting of the 127 or so minutes (including OT) these teams played this season, Seattle led for only about 23 of those...the Rams mostly went wire-to-wire in both meetings. Matthew Stafford won't be surprised by anything Seattle does after passed for 457 yards on December 18 at Seattle, when Rams special teams blunders proved costly (as in other defeats this season). If LA has remedied those, Stafford can outpitch Sam Darnold, who tossed 6 picks across the pair of reg-season meetings, and didn't need to do much last week vs. the Niners when staked to an early 17-0 lead. Play Rams on ML

When the Rams went to Seattle in Week 16 and scored 30 points in regulation, they did not have Kevin Dotson, Davante Adams nor Tyler Higbee. All are back for the league's top offense. Weather won't be a factor in Seattle, so I like the Rams to score at least 23. The Seahawks possess an elite defense but it's one Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can solve.

Let's start with Seattle's No. 1 league ranking in defense, yet this game draws a higher-than-average total. L.A. owns the most prolific offense, but it has slumped in recent weeks. Plus, in conference title matchups, the side with the top defense has downed the best offense's team outright in four straight. As stellar as Rams QB Matt Stafford has been, his kyptonite is pressure, and the Seahawks' D turns up the heat on QBs. On the flip side, QB Sam Darnold has performed well below the league norm since Week 11. There will be no handoffs to injured RB Zach Charbonnet. Seattle's OTs are so banged up that three missed practice this week. Lastly, the Under has ruled in 10 of the last 14 faceoffs.

Stafford has struggled a bit on the road in the playoffs, but he gets a familair matchup against the Seahawks and a TD number that he has smashed pretty much all regular season (11 games in a row with 2+ passing TDs or more prior to the playoffs). I'm not as worried about the finger injury as some and I also think this prop is game script proof, as the Rams have learned the hard way that they need to keep the pedal down for all 4 quarters against the Seahawks.

The Rams and Seahawks split their two games this season, with only 3 points separating them, but when I look at the championship game, I have to side with the Rams. It comes down to the Rams having the better head coach, quarterback, receivers, and offensive line. You can give Seattle the edge on defense and special teams, but that defense gave up 581 yards to the Rams in the last meeting, Dec. 18th. With this game being so pivotal, I feel better about betting Matt Stafford than Sam Darnold. Stafford just feels right; Darnold is missing something. The Rams had the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging 392 yards a game while scoring an NFL-best 30.1 points per game.

Tyler Higbee is over this receiving yardage total in all three games since he’s returned from injury (91-45-27). As we saw last week in Chicago, all it takes is one catch to well exceed this number. In the Week 16 matchup between the Rams and Seahawks, L.A. tight ends caught 7 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. Jake Tonges had 5 for 59 against them last week before being hurt early in the second half. With Seattle’s attention on slowing Puka Nacua, expect the Rams tight ends to have success once again.

Sam Darnold hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in his last three games and is dealing with an injured oblique. Throwing deep might be an issue with this injury, so the biggest concern here is a run after the catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rashid Shaheed. Expect Seattle to lean on Kenneth Walker III and not allow Darnold to do the heavy lifting. With Darnold’ injury, if the Seahawks are in chase mode, would they consider inserting Drew Lock late in the game to take shots down the field? Either way, I think Seattle’s starting QB doesn’t complete a pass longer than 30 yards this week.

The Seahawks enter this game without Zach Charbonnet, a TD machine in 2025 who had six of the team's nine rushing scores from 1 or 2 yards out. Kenneth Walker had two such scores, and the other went to tight end AJ Barner, who is the rusher in the team's tush push formation. Barner has gotten positive yardage on 10 of his 11 carries (including playoffs), and with no Charbonnet, it's more likely Barner will get his name called near the goal line or in a key short-yardage situation. The juice makes the Over the underdog here, but I'd make it the favorite so I like the value we're getting.

Will Walker be the lead back? Yes. Will he be the only back? I doubt it. In two years as head coach, Mike Macdonald's Seahawks have played three games where one running back has had 20-plus carries. Plus, the game script for Walker to receive that much work totally depends on whether or not the Rams put points up, which is something they've done against the Seahawks twice already, especially in Week 16. I would imagine Sean McVay has made it a point to focus on Walker, thus limiting his efficiency and in turn forcing the Seahawks to go in another direction on offense. The oddsmakers know that the public will be on the overs for Walker, and they've accounted for it with big lines.

Zach Charbonnet was Seattle's goal-line back but he's out for the season after getting hurt last week, and Kenneth Walker blew up after he left with three TDs. This seems light as I'm pretty sure the Rams aren't going to keep Seattle out of the end zone. The former Sparty Walker should be extremely busy on Sunday.

I have felt the Rams are the better team all season. They have slipped a bit the last few weeks but I believe they put forth their A game here on Sunday. My numbers make them a 1-point favorite - and I love teasing them up to +8.5 with Denver up to +10.5. I do believe both underdogs win outright this weekend. With Seattle looking dominant recently and LA looking beatable, we may be catching a bit of value in this line. It is telling that it hasn't gone to 3. Rams vs Broncos for SuperBowl 60 in Santa Clara.

Last week, Kyren Williams played 63% of the snaps and had 25 touches. In Week 16, when these two teams met, Williams had 70% of the snaps. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I think Sean McVay will continue to give Williams more snaps and touches. Williams was tied for 3rd with the number of carries inside the 5-yard line (18) among all running backs. We are getting a plus money price for a running back that gets a majority of the touches and high-value touches. I understand it's because of the defensive matchup. But Williams had a touchdown in Week 11 against the Seahawks. I like this price for him to find the endzone again Sunday.

DraftKings. AJ Barner stayed under this line in 13 of 18 games this season. Running 82% of his routes off of the offensive line, Barner’s average depth of target is 5.3 yards, with only nine of his 63 targets traveling more than nine air yards. He did haul in a deep target against the Rams in Week 16 - his only target for more than 20 yards since Week 7. That catch was one of only four completions of 17+ yards allowed to an in-line tight end this season by Los Angeles. The Rams allowed the seventh lowest yards per reception (8.5) and eleventh lowest yards per target (6.9) to in-line pass catchers this season (per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 15.5.

Seahawks tight end AJ Barner was not targeted last week, but this is a great matchup for him. He had 10 catches and four catches in the two meetings with the Rams, drawing a total of 17 targets. The Rams have given up 23 receptions to opposing tight ends over the past three games. While Seattle rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo could be activated from IR for this game, I still like Barner to make at least three grabs.

Kenneth Walker will be carrying the load for the Seahawks this Sunday in the NFC, however this is a huge combination line for the veteran RB. While Walker should see some additional touches, he’s facing a stout Rams run defense that finished 6th in Success Rate and 12th in EPA allowed per rush. I’ve been impressed with the Rams run defense in the playoffs.

The Seahawks offense didn't get tested much last week as Sam Darnold completed just 12 passes in a 35-point win. That shouldn't be the case in Rams-Seahawks, Part 3. The Seahawks' recent defensive dominance has led to depressed numbers for Smith-Njigba and dropped this line below where it should be. He reached 90+ yards in 13 of 15 games to open the season, seeing triple-digit lines during that stretch. The Rams allow 150.8 yards per game to WRs and Smith-Njigba should see the lion's share of that production en route to his first 90-yard game since the last Rams matchup. If the Seahawks defense doesn't shut down the league's top scoring offense completely, Smith-Njigba is going to get the volume needed to get over here.

DraftKings at -107. Kenneth Walker has cleared this line in seven of eleven games since the Seahawks Week 9 bye. This, of course, is despite an almost 50/50 route share split with Zach Charbonnet. With the latter back out for the season, I expect Walker to take on a bigger role, which should include more pass plays. It’s a great matchup for him, as the Rams allowed the fifth most receiving yards to running backs in the regular season (38 yards per game), with an opposing back clearing this line in nine of their last eleven games. This includes Walker’s 64-yard and 44-yard performances (Charbonnet with six total targets and 32 yards as well). I’d bet this up to over 20.5.

Dating back to 2024, Sam Darnold has faced the Rams four times. His teams are 1-3 in those games, with the one win being a large blown lead by Los Angeles and won on a two-point conversion (in December 2025). He’s thrown six interceptions against L.A. already this season and is once again likely not to be 100% on Sunday with an oblique injury. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown an interception against Seattle this season (5 TDs, 0 INTs). Though Stafford hasn’t been at his best this postseason, I can’t possibly pick Darnold over him in a big game. In yet another playoff thriller, Los Angeles moves on to the Super Bowl for the second time in five seasons. Rams 27, Seahawks 23.