Does it make sense to fade a team that has cost us repeatedly and comes from behind to win or tighten games weekly? Probably not. Here’s the thing: This Bears defense is not good. The Rams should score at will. Chicago looks poised to pick apart the weak Los Angeles secondary, so this may fly over the total (49) despite the weather, which is likely much ado about nothing. This sets up similarly to 49ers-Bears (42-38) and Rams-Lions (41-34). L.A. got the poison out of its system against Carolina and should do well (look at its team total). The Rams have been the NFL’s best team most of 2025. Chicago’s magic finally runs out at the end of a stellar Year 1 under Ben Johnson.

In the wild card round, Rome Odunze returned for his first action since November 28th. He made just two catches but had the key fourth down catch for 27 yards that gave the Bears life. Even with the weather conditions expect the Bears to need the passing game to have success or even playing from behind. Take Odunze's over for a second straight week.

Davante Adams missed the last two games of the regular season as precaution with a hamstring injury. The veteran showed his importance with matching a season high 13 targets against the Panthers. Look for Stafford to continue to look his way in a cold weather environment game in Chicago where Adams is familiar from his Packers days. Take his over.

I believe the weather story has become overblown here. Stafford spent the majority of his career in the NFC North. The temperatures will affect everyone and the Rams are the far superior team. They let Carolina get too close last week and they won't here. The Bears defense is a bottom 10 unit in the league. If they cannot force turnovers, they get picked apart, and that is what the Rams will do. Just as the magic finally wore off for the 49'ers, it will do so here too for the pull another rabbit out of my hat Chicago Bears. Lay the points. LA wins by double-digits.. just as my numbers say so as my stats crunch spits out Rams by 10.

FanDuel (60+ at -118). Kyren Williams has cleared the 60-yard mark in 14/18 games. Despite the Blake Corum emergence since the Week 8 bye, Williams has maintained pace with his counterpart, at 5.1 yards per carry, and a 59% carry and rush yard share. He’ll face the Bears who rank 28th in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Chicago allowed 104 running back rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in the regular season. However, those numbers jump up to 120 yards and 5.2 YPC across seven contests when linebacker TJ Edwards (IR) doesn’t play the full game, and Tremaine Edwards does. The weather should be conducive to running, and I have Williams projected around 70 yards. I’d bet this up to over 64.5.

A lot being made of the expected chill likely to dip into the single digits Sunday at Solider Field. Yet the last time the Rams played in somewhat-similar arctic conditions last January at Philadelphia, the scoreline hit 50 points. Matthew Stafford, in particular, hasn't seemed overly bothered by the Rams' infrequent cold-weather games, and LA scorelines in succession since November 30 are 59 (vs. Carolina), 62 (vs. Arizona), 75 (vs. Detroit), 75 again (vs. Seattle in OT), 51 (vs. Atlanta), 57 (vs. Arizona), and 65 in the Wild Card round (vs. Carolina again). The Bears can reciprocate, as Caleb Williams has been able to rally Chicago since Halloween, most recently last week's fightback vs. Green Bay (31-27) that reached 58 total points. Play Rams-Bears Over

Much being made of the expected chill at Soldier Field, similar conditions which confronted the Rams at Philadelphia last January. Still, what we more expect as a factor is the recent LA results on the road, which beginning November 30 at Carolina have featured four harrowing games, three of those losses to the Panthers, Seahawks, and Falcons. Uncharacteristic, perhaps, but Matthew Stafford did make mistakes in the losses that proved costly. The Bears present a compelling underdog case because of their never-say-die mantra exemplified by 2nd-year QB Caleb Williams, author of several comebacks this season including last week from 18 down to corral the Packers. There's also room in this number for the Rams to win but not cover. Play Bears

Puka Nacua has 11 receiving and two rushing touchdowns this season, including one of each last week at Carolina. The Rams have given him five carries in the past two games, both must-win situations. He also has received double-digit targets in six straight games. Look for Nacua to get in the end zone at least once Sunday in Chicago.

Props to anyone who grabbed the original Under of 51.5. As the weather forecast grew clearer, the number quickly plummeted by three points. Still, it's worth the risk. The wind chill is expected to make it feel like single digits, and gusts are predicted that can foul up passing and placekicking. Chicago prefers to run the ball, thus protecting the sometime erratic QB Caleb Williams, and the Rams might mimic the Bears by calling more carries because, well, they hail from tropical SoCal and completing passes could prove challenging. Three of Chicago's last four regular season games generated 34, 32 (in regulation) and 35 points. The elements hint at another outcome beneath this total.

I wrote up Davante Adams ATD last week, and he did not score, unfortunately. But I'm going back to the bet because of the player, the matchup, and the price. As I mentioned last week, Adams had the most touchdowns of any wide receiver this season, three more, actually (14). And he only played 14 games. While he did not score in his first playoff game with the Rams, I believe he will this week. The Bears gave up the 3rd most touchdowns to receivers this season (20). So we have the receiver with the most touchdowns this season against the team that gave up the 3rd most touchdowns to receivers. And the price is still only -118? Sign me up!

The Bears feel like they're playing with house money, but this team is wide open to win the title if it can beat the Rams. Injuries at left tackle and linebacker for Chicago are a problem, but Matthew Stafford is also dealing with a finger injury that seemed to affect his accuracy against the Panthers, and rolling out in extremely cold weather Sunday isn't going to help things. The Bears are the type of team I'd design to upset the Rams with a turnover-rich defense and an offense with diverse pass-game weapons. Home 'dogs of 4+ points are now 10-0 ATS in the playoffs over the last 50 years, so if this line closes at four, I want to be on Chicago.

I went over this number last week and it cashed with Blake Corum finishing with 11 carries. Corum has now gone over this total in five of his last six games. The only time he didn't was against Atlanta when he left early with an injury. In the Bears last four games, they gave up 26, 23, 27 and 21 carries to opposing running backs. Corum and Kyren Williams are rotating series and I expect both backs to be a factor again with freezing temperatures and high winds expected Sunday night. Bet up to 10.5.

Pretty darn good price on the Rams' Kyren Williams considering he had 13 total TDs during the regular season. Chicago isn't all that good against the run, and I tend to think the Rams run more than usual simply due to the bitterly cold conditions and possible snow on Sunday night. And if Williams doesn't find the end zone, pretty good chance my Bears win and that trade-off is just fine by me. Just have to hope Blake Corum doesn't vulture one at the goal line assuming L.A. gets there at least once. Williams had a TD catch last week at the Panthers.

The Rams have cleared this total in seven of their last eight games. Their best offensive lineman, Kevin Dotson, and field-stretching tight end, Terrance Ferguson, have a good chance to return from injury Sunday. Matthew Stafford is a full go despite a minor sprain of his right index finger; he leads the NFL in explosive pass plays. Over the past three games, the Bears have given up 6.4 yards per play. They just lost their best linebacker, T.J. Edwards, to a serious leg injury. While the forecast calls for bitter cold, the wind won't be too bad. That's a huge benefit to the high-flying Rams.

With the frigid temperatures expected in Chicago this weekend, expect the Rams passing game to not be as effective as it has been all season. It doesn't mean that they won't be productive, but it won't be as sharp. That'll allow the Bears to steal a few possessions away and make this one tougher for the Rams to comeback from on the road.

The Bears are coming off a massive win in Ben Johnson's first year, but the defense did not cover itself in glory, allowing four different Packers receivers to score touchdowns. That's after the team allowed 20 receiving TDs to WRs in the regular season, tied for third worst in the league. Nacua is a target monster in the Rams offense, and he's scored in four straight games with eight total TDs in his last six weeks. I prefer playing him to Davante Adams in this matchup but both figure to have a good shot at scoring.

It’s going to be freezing in Chicago on Sunday, well that actually might be an understatement. I’ve never been in any weather colder than 25 degrees wind chill, so I can’t imagine what negative temperatures feel like including gusty winds. How miserable. That certainly doesn’t favor Matthew Stafford, who’s played the majority of his career games indoors or in mild weather. Expect Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to get a lot of work, while the Rams defense will force Caleb Williams into two big mistakes. On a normal day, this game might fly over, but not in these conditions. Rams 24, Bears 19.

This is a monster over to take on a Tuesday, but we don't care. There was some buy back on it that got it down to a half point or so and we'll take advantage. Weather might be a concern (low temps, medium winds) but I'm not worried about that against a Bears secondary that can be gotten. Just look at Jordan Love's numbers in the Packers loss to Chicago last week. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is the king of the second half surge, so even if the Rams pile up points early, they won't be able to take their foot off the gas and Williams will move the ball against a suspect secondary in the second half and maybe the first as well.

Colston Loveland has become Caleb Williams' go-to target late in the season and in the Wildcard round. Since Week 16 through the Wildcard game, Loveland has 26% target share and is averaging 88 receiving yards per game. I stayed away from Loveland in the Wildcard round due to what I thought was a difficult matchup against the Packers. He had eight catches for 147 yards. In a must-win playoff game, I'm going back to Loveland to go over this line. I'll likely ladder his line up to 80+ receiving yards.

This is a huge number for Colston Loveland who has been very good inside of a crowded Bears pass catching group. Loveland has failed to eclipse 55 yards in 11/16 regular season games. Rome Odunze returned to Chicago’s lineup giving Caleb Williams numerous options. Loveland has gobbled up 38 targets in his last three games and that is not sustainable. The Rams are also very good in coverage, particularly defending Tight Ends having allowed the 7th fewest yards despite surrendering the 14th most targets to the position. While Loveland is certainly emerging as a strong target this is a chunky line for almost any Tight End and I believe the Rams will look to take him away.