Not recognizing the Chargers’ splits when Joe Alt is active/inactive earlier this season cost us, but wising up to it started paying off. With Alt now out for the season, Los Angeles is in a bad way protecting Justin Herbert – on Sunday night against an attacking Pittsburgh defense that, coupled with in Jalen Ramsey’s repositioning, sent Daniel Jones to hell last week. The turnovers are unlikely to come in bunches again in L.A., but the Steelers should be able to play a steady game and extend drives as there will be little pressure from the Chargers on Aaron Rodgers. Wait until kickoff, if needed, to get the hook (+3.5), but +3 is still a solid play at -105 or better.

DraftKings. Similarly to how we targeted Alec Pierce against the Steelers, I like the Chargers deep threat, Quentin Johnston in this matchup. The Steelers run single-high safety looks at the third highest rate. Johnston leads the Chargers in receiving yards against single-high coverage, despite missing one game. Overall, the Steelers pass funnel defense has allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers (196 per game). And this is a line that Johnston has cleared in five of eight games. I’d bet this up to over 46.5 receiving yards.

The total seems suspiciously low. Both of these teams played in games that went over 45 in each of their past 3, yet with 81% of the bets on the Over, the total hasn’t really budged. I expect defenses to be key in this one. The Chargers offensive production drops off without LT Joe Alt. The Steelers went with more two-high safety looks last week, and moved Jalen Ramsey around which seemed to be an effective switch. The Chargers defense ranks 12th in defensive passing DVOA, and should be able to limit Pittsburgh’s explosive plays. I see this being a 23-20 type of game.

Last week against the Colts strong O-line, Highsmith had 4 QB pressures and 2 sacks. The Chargers are without LT Joe Alt & RT Bobby Hart, so I expect Watt & Highsmith to wreak havoc all night. Considering the matchup and Highsmith’s performance last week, getting +136 for half a sack seems like value.

Mike Tomlin as an underdog… need I say more? 65-35-3 ATS, and 32-14-1 ATS when playing as a dog against an opponent with a better record. The Chargers offensive line is in shambles, and the loss of LT Joe Alt can’t be understated. LA is 15-5 SU when Alt starts, but 2-5 without him. They will also be without RT Bobby Hart. Pittsburgh’s defense is starting to wake up, and T.J Watt & company could make it a long night for Justin Herbert.

Quentin Johnston hasn’t had a monster game lately but this could be one. The Steelers play a high rate of man coverage, which is where Johnston excels. Go Over and play this up to 43.5.

The LA Chargers have four different targets that have gone off this season with Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey. Instead of it detracting value in the prop market I believe it presents value. Quentin Johnston after putting up a donut in Thursday Night football against the Vikings, bounced back with fifty three yards against the Titans. He also had forty four yards on just two catches against the Steelers defense a season ago, a game that Justin Herbert was hurt in. Take Johnston over on his receiver yards.

Defensively speaking, the Steelers had their best game last week vs the Indianapolis Colts. We saw sacks, TFLs, turnovers and key stops in big moments. And that was against one of the better offensive lines in the AFC. Fast forward to this matchup vs a retooled offensive line that's missing two of its best players on the unit. Not good news for the Bolts.

Don't be surprised if this one sounds like a Steelers home game on Sunday night at SoFi Stadium...Pittsburgh fans are everywhere and have packed SoFi before to make it sound like Acrisure Stadium West. Lots of Myron Cope's Terrible Towels will be waving on Sunday night. Though his recent record as an underdog has tailed off a bit, Mike Tomlin reminded last week vs. Indy to never count his side out, as the Steelers, putting an unsightly loss to the Packers in the rear-view mirror, took down the hot Colts 27-20. Aaron Rodgers reminded that he's not done yet, with an efficient 25 for 35 effort thru the air, and the defense was at its disruptive best, forcing a big 6 Indy turnovers. Play Steelers

Unfortunately the injury bug has bitten LA hard and their hopes of going far in the playoffs are over. Without Joe Alt and Rashan Slater, 3rd and 4th string offensive lineman are being asked to protect Justin Herbert - who has become the most pressured QB in the league as a result. The adjustments the Steelers made on defense last week should carry over here. I made the Chargers a 1-point favorite, so getting the full field goal is quite the bargain in my opinion. Finally, this stadium will be overwhelmingly filled with Steelers fans - and that doesn't hurt our cause either.

In games when Chargers OT Joe Alt has played wire-to-wire, they average seven points per game more than when he hasn't. Alt's second stint on the injury list that began this week is the tip of the iceberg. OT Rashawn Salter was lost for good in preseason, and two other O-linemen are iffy. QB Justin Herbert has absorbed the most hits and third-most sacks in the league. He should brace for more. His opposite, Aaron Rodgers, has been sharp of late, but Pittsburgh has not faced many defenses as nasty as the Chargers' (third fewest pass yards, sixth fewest total yards yielded.) It could be no shootout at the L.A. corral.

The Chargers offensive line took another blow with Joe Alt's injury, but it had some offensive success in the weeks Alt missed, with Justin Herbert carving up the Dolphins and Colts. While the Steelers' pass rush could be an issue, I'm not sure they'll be able to cover all the weapons Herbert has at his disposal. I'm more intrigued by the matchup on the other side, where the Chargers defense has looked excellent the last two weeks against the Vikings and Titans. The Steelers offense got 10 points on short fields last week in the upset of Indy, and I'll trust Herbert to protect the ball better than Daniel Jones did last week. Three is probably the right number here.

Justin Herbert has cleared this number in 7 of 9 games, including five times when playing indoors. He's averaging 43.2 rushing yards per game indoors this season. With a banged-up offensive line, Herbert is expected to use his legs quite often to avoid the Steelers' pass rush. The only quarterbacks that Pittsburgh has faced who is considered elusive is Justin Fields and Drake Maye, who had 48 and 45 rushing yards respectively. The Steelers haven't had to contend with a running quarterback until now, but that is likely to change in this game. The crowd should be pro-Steelers, which will fuel Herbert's performance.

The Chargers are again dealing with a slew of injuries at offensive tackle, as Joe Alt is out for an extended period of time again and surprisingly solid fill-in Bobby Hart may also not play here. That lowers the Chargers' offensive ceiling against a Steelers defense with talent on the edge. The Steelers offense was again boosted by a ridiculous number of takeaways against the Colts, putting together just three drives longer than 23 yards but adding 10 points on short fields. The Chargers defense has allowed just one TD in its last two games, with the Titans' total boosted by a pick-six and punt return TD, so Under is the way I want to play in their games against non-elite offenses.