Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-5
ATS8-9
O/U9-8-0
FINAL SCORE
13
-
30
Miami
Dolphins
MIA
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-9
ATS8-9
O/U9-8-0
Last 5 ATS
11-5
Win /Loss
7-9
8-9
Spread
8-9
9-8-0
Over / Under
9-8-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Washington is not playing in Saturday's preseason game against the Giants, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.
Willis is not in uniform for Saturday's preseason game against the Giants, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
Achane is not in uniform for Saturday's preseason game against the Giants, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.
Bell (lower body) will not participate in Saturday's preseason game against the Browns, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
Coleman (right foot/toe) isn't expected to play in Saturday's preseason game, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
Shakir (undisclosed) won't play in Saturday's preseason game against Cleveland, Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News reports.
Allen will sit for Saturday's preseason game against the Browns, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Bell (lower body) was present for Thursday's practice but was limited to side work, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.
Hawes drew some praise from Josh Allen for his pass-catching skills Thursday, Alex Brasky of SI.com reports.
Brents (undisclosed) is trending in the right direction but did not participate in full-team drills against the Giants on Thursday, Alain Poupart of SI.com reports.
DraftKings. I’ll take a stab on Greg Dulcich, coming off a five-catch game for 49 yards last week. With Tanner Conner released, and Julian Hill questionable to play, I see Dulcich having a nice role for the Dolphins today. The Bills stingy numbers against tight-ends on paper is more of a product of who they’ve played - they rank 18th in DVOA against the position (per FTN). Dulcich should step into the Darren Waller role (and Jonny Smith last season) for a Fins offense that’s in need of playmaking outside of Jaylen Waddles and De’Von Achane. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
The Dolphins come into this game as heavy underdogs, but I don't see them abandoning the run even if they're down big. Achane has reached 67 rush yards in four straight despite two of those games being blowout losses, and aside from a game against Carolina where the team got whatever it wanted in the pass game, he's hit 62 rush yards in every game since the first matchup with Buffalo in Week 3. The Bills give up the eighth most rush yards per game to RBs in the league, and they're still dealing with injury issues up the middle. I'll trust Achane to continue his streak going over this number.
The Dolphins were competitive with the Bills in their first meeting this season, with both Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle scoring TDs. Still, they lost that game by 10 and gave up 31 points. Miami's struggling defense will be without DE Chop Robinson, veteran DB Rasul Douglas is 'doubtful' to play, and LB Jaelan Phillips was traded away. The Bills seem to be entering top form after routing the Panthers 40-9, and then holding Patrick Mahomes to 15/34, 0 TD/1 INT the following week in a 28-21 win over their nemesis. Buffalo by double digits.
Rousseau had a quiet start to the season, but is starting to heat up. He has recorded sacks in 3 of the last 4 games, and is coming off his best performance of the season against the Chiefs last week. Rousseau is from Florida and went to college at Miami University, so this could be a nice homecoming game for him. In 9 games against the Dolphins over his career, Rousseau has 6.5 sacks. Buffalo's pass rush is starting to get home, so I like Rousseau to record at least half a sack at plus odds.
RB James Cook has been the engine for this Bills offensive attack. How he goes, so does the offense and he's been balling consistently this season. Miami has played better collectively as of late, but with the recent departures at the trade deadline, they are not as deep as their divisional counterparts to keep up.
Cook has gone over this total in six of eight games this season, including Week 3 vs. Miami when he put up 108 yards on 19 carries. The Dolphins allow 119 yards per game to running backs - third most in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Cook on Sunday in a game where the Bills should be playing from ahead in the second half.
In their first matchup, James Cook rushed for 108 yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins in September. Cook has cleared this rushing line in six of his eight games this season. And the Dolphins have given up the 3rd most rushing yards to running backs this season. In a likely positive game script, I like Cook to soar past this line again on Sunday.
I usually like to target plus money touchdowns, but I like this price for De'Von Achane to find the endzone against the Bills on Sunday. The Bills' run defense has been bad all season, and they give up the 2nd most rushing touchdowns to running backs (10). Of course, for an Anytime TD bet, Achane can get there on the ground or through the air. He has seven total touchdowns this season. And with a great matchup on Sunday, I look for him to score another touchdown.
The stock could not be much higher on Buffalo after beating KC and it could not be much lower on Miami after being beaten down by the Ravens. It will be hot and humid in Miami, making matters worse for the Bills. Defensively, they are without Ed Oliver and AJ Epenesa up front and they are in that bad situation of home dog that won outright, going into the role of road favorite. Dolphins are on extra rest and know their coach is a dead man walking. They show up for him here in a division matchup and stay inside the over-inflated number.
De'Von Achane has found the end zone seven times in the Dolphins' nine games so far this season, an insanely impressive number considering how meh the Miami offense has been so far this year. More importantly for our purposes here, the Dolphins are a massive home underdog and should be throwing a bunch, with plenty of designed and dump offs coming Achane's way. Four of his seven scores have come from Tua in the pass game, and while this number is a little juicy, it's much cheaper than the rest of the market and still an extremely fair price for a guy should probably be closer to -150 to score against Buffalo this weekend. Ollie Gordon being questionable is just a cherry on top.
The Bills are flying high after beating the Chiefs once again in the regular season, and this seems like a good time to fade them in a letdown spot against a team they're "supposed" to dominate. The Dolphins have had three ugly offensive performances this season but also four games of 27+ points, including a season-high 34 against a solid Falcons defense on the road two weeks ago. I like buying low on them off a dud where they have extra rest after playing Thursday in a spot where they can feed De'Von Achane to attack a beat-up Bills defensive line and keep the game within reach. Bills are obviously the better team but my line on this game is 7.5, not 9.5.
DraftKings. This is quite the low line for Dalton Kincaid, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Dolphins rank 30th in DVOA against tight-ends, having allowed one to clear this line in all but one game this season (the tight-end averse Panthers). This includes a 66-yard performance from Kincaid back in Week 3, when he lead the Bills in targets, receptions and yards. Yes, the spread favors a run-heavy script for the Bills, but at 12.5 yards per target, and the Dolphins allowing 8.9 to the position, we don’t need much volume from the third-year tight-end. I’d bet this up to over 36.5 yards.
Dalton Kincaid just ripped the Chiefs for six catches, 101 yards and a touchdown. When he faced the Dolphins earlier this season, he caught five of six targets for 66 yards and a score. Miami has been getting routinely shredded by opposing tight ends, giving up the fifth-most yards per game (68.2) to the position. The Dolphins just gave up nine targets, seven catches, 105 yards and three TDs to Baltimore.
