Matt's Picks (6 Live)
Arizona has topped this in every home game this season. The Los Angeles defense has been shaky on the road at times, including last week's shock 31-28 loss at Carolina. Two defensive starters are either questionable or doubtful. Certainly possible the Rams get up big and just go prevent defense. Our model has the Cards at 19 points, and most of our books have this TT at 19.5.
I was just looking at our model's favorite props plays for Sunday -- which if you join the SportsLine Discord channel and then my sub-channel, I share all these charts -- and Denver's RJ Harvey is the second-favorite RB for an anytime TD with a 73% shot of scoring. Only Jonathan Taylor at 78% is higher, but he's priced -230. And if Harvey does score, that's great for me regarding the final week of the Fantasy regular season. Although I might tank/play scrubs to avoid what might be the best team in our league in the first round of the playoffs. Hello Tyrod Taylor at QB.
Pittsburgh is getting smashed on the ground of late, and Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards and two scores last time he saw the Steelers in January's WC game. Lamar Jackson isn't really running these days as he battles numerous injuries. Honestly thought this would be near -200.
The smart play is definitely Dallas +3.5. I've never been accused of being smart. And I need the Lions to win for all my buddies being there tonight. So yeah, I definitely make picks for personal reasons other than stats-related sometimes. I was ready to play Dallas if Amon-Ra St. Brown and all those Lions O-Linemen were out, but they are all playing. Honestly surprised on ASB. Just can't trust Dallas away even if looking miles better lately. Probably a Detroit 3-point win so Cowboys +3.5 bettors win at a better price. Let's all win. But I can't do that number on the road.
Believe I know more about the Bears than most people alive. Not saying I'm the biggest/most knowledgeable fan ever, but between that and how I betting track them so much. Top 10. I give them almost no chance here barring turnovers/random TDs, etc. And that's fine. They got the big win last Sunday, need to focus on next week vs. the stupid Packers and are obliterated by injury on defense even with a couple of guys back. Five-day turnaround at an angry Eagles team? I really don't think this goes well. I will not only happily eat this $100 if I'm SU wrong, I will find some sort of Bear and/or Eagle non-profit animal habitation place and donate $50 to each if so. May push.
Joe Burrow will return but surely be a bit rusty (and probably not super mobile), and he won't have Tee Higgins. Star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson remains out on defense. And these defenses couldn't be more different. Baltimore has won five straight and has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense in that span. Cincinnati is allowing 32.7 PPG this season, third-worst by a team in the Super Bowl Era. Last 6.5 on our board, although maybe the Burrow news makes a few more appear.
I grew up watching the Lions on Turkey Day and it's their biggest home game of the year annually. Both teams are a bit beaten up on a mega-short turnaround. Green Bay QB Jordan Love reportedly has the same injury Baker Mayfield has but is playing through it. Love handed off with his right hand exclusively against the Vikings because of that left shoulder injury. One big hit there. I'm not that concerned with Detroit's play on Sunday as it pretty clearly was overlooking the Giants. And it will be early awaiting payback for a Week 1 loss at Lambeau. All those questionable Lions O-Linemen are active. Matthew Golden and Quay Walker are not for Green Bay.
Atlanta sure looks like one of those quit teams under a lame-duck coach rather like the Giants. Kirk Cousins resembles age 87, not 37, and that pains me to say as he's a west Michigander and Sparty. "You like that!" No Drake London, either. A couple of defensive regulars landed on IR Saturday. This is screaming "tank the rest of the way" and we fire our coach on Black Monday situation. The Saints are clearly awful -- perhaps not quite Pelicans bad; sorry for you NOLA folks as it's such a fun town -- but out of a bye and rookie QB Tyler Shough has shown some modest promise.
If the Cowboys have any shot, and I think they do have one, they certainly have to score at least 23 points. And they generally have been lights out offensively at home other than a puzzling MNF loss to Arizona in Week 9. The Philly defense has looked fabulous of late, no doubt about it, but I think a few circumstances (indoor team outdoors, struggling Packers) played into that. Dallas is averaging the most PPG (29.6) overall in NFL history by a team with a losing record through 10 games. The game total Over is 6-1 in their past seven. Our model has Dallas right at 23. If Brandon Aubrey doesn't miss a kick, and he rarely does even from 60+, then I think OK.