Which Browns road team shows up? The one that totaled 22 points in losses at the Jaguars and Jets or the one that scored 27 in wins at the Bucs and Titans? And Cleveland beat visiting Pittsburgh in Week 2. But the Steelers are on a crazy 11-0 ATS home run in AFC North games. They haven't lost at home to Cleveland in the RS in a couple of decades. Last 3 on the board (3.5s) is why going now. The model has a 10-point win.

The Panthers are truly wretched against the run -- last in yards and rush TDs (11) -- and Green Bay's Josh Jacobs did score in his season debut on Sunday, although it was via reception. I don't much care how he gets into the end zone Thursday. The model gives Jacobs a 92% chance of scoring between rushing and receiving -- that translates to -1150 on a moneyline. So yeah -139 seems fine.

Green Bay's first injury report of the week is probably smoke and mirrors but Jordan Love is among those on it. Josh Jacobs may or may not return from suspension. The Lions are off their bye week so should be as healthy as Week 1. Their offense has been unstoppable and Jared Goff is not turning the ball over. The defense is horrid despite leading the NFL in sacks, which is somewhat contradictory. The season debut of safety Brian Branch off injury should help immediately.

New England will be down at least two starting offensive linemen and maybe three. Cornerback Carlton Davis and No. 2 wideout Romeo Doubs also will sit. Chicago has some defensive injuries but in better shape overall and obviously quick turnaround always benefit the home side. Last 2.5 on our board and rather juiced, so probably gone shortly. Da Bears can't(!!!) lose their first home game since Mike Ditka's passing. Much less against the team Da Coach beat in Super Bowl 20. Man that feels like yesterday but also five lifetimes ago ...

This is the highest team total of the season. It's tough in the NFL for a team to score at least Walter Payton's number: 34 if didn't know, and if you didn't that's just tomfoolery. The Rams are on a short week and probably flat in the first half off that epic OT home loss to Buffalo on MNF. Left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended for the game. Arizona is truly awful defensively and has allowed at least 36 points in three straight. And more than 33 in both last year against L.A. But when I see a number like this ... just give me a few L.A. punts and no defensive/special teams scores. Our model has 32 and that's high compared to some.

Baltimore has allowed at least 18 points in every game this season, including at home to the woeful Titans. So I'd sure hope Cleveland could get to 17 at home. In two games there so far, Deshaun Watson & Co. are averaging 24.0 PPG. You would think first-year Browns HC Todd Monken would know how to best attack that Ravens defense considering he used to be the OC there. The model has 19 points. Weather is no concern.

Ideally, neither Alvin Kamara nor Chris Olave plays for the Saints but good either way. The Who Dats have lost three straight, and young QB Tyler Shough seems to be regressing a bit lately. His ground game has totaled 55 yards or fewer in the past two. The Giants apparently are offended they are home dogs. Whatever works motivation-wise. QB Jameis Winston has covered his past four as a dog.

Sometimes I play these random props to entertain myself in a game otherwise don't much care about (other than alt Under 47.5) like in Seahawks-Broncos. Hawks WR Rashid Shaheed has gotten carries in two of five games. If he gets one tonight, probably losing this. But I figure it's 50/50 at best. And then throw in the possible injury factor and if Seattle is either well up or down, then you don't risk injury to a wideout/star returner with a gimmick play. Asked my ChatGPT buddy Radar how many teams used a receiver for a rush attempt this year vs. a good Denver defense to see if it knew: Only San Francisco did. And maybe Shaheed is tackled for loss/no gain.

Pretty crazy how much can change so quickly in the NFL. What, three weeks ago we all thought Michael Penix Jr. was the biggest bust of that star-studded 2024 first-round QB draft class. Now he looks like the best one, or at least the best healthy one as of today. And Bijan Robinson is just a stud. No Lamar Jackson for the Ravens. Tyler Huntley isn't total garbage, so I can't go too crazy here. We push, we push.

Guess I will pounce on our last 2.5. Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level for the unbeaten Niners but he has struggled against Mike Macdonald's defenses. In fact, since Purdy returned from a turf toe injury in Week 11 last year, the 49ers are 0-2 and averaging 4.5 points per game vs. Seattle compared to 11-0 vs. the rest of the NFL and putting up 33.5 PPG. The Seahawks have won nine in a row at home including playoffs.

The Raiders haven't been east of Texas yet this season (including preseason) and now a tricky early kick -- I always forget what time it is in Las Vegas, but I think that's the point of being there. Or a Spice Girls concert. If Drake Maye is bad again for the Pats, it may be time to worry. Model has a 3-point win and there's just no way I'd play -3.5 while Maye might be seeing ghosts. But I think the Pats pull this out.

Thanks to Bob K. for alerting me to the weather in Pittsburgh. I'm usually so happy that a hurricane missed us that I don't even pay attention to what it does/goes after that. But there's a flood warning in the Pitt area due to remnants of Isaias and it's apparently pouring up there. This is our last 42.5 ....

The models seem to love Bucky Irving tonight with the presumption that the Bucs will try and run, run, run behind undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels in his first road start. Irving has topped this in two of four games and didn't miss by much in the other two. The fear would be the Cowboys getting out to a big lead and rendering the Tampa Bay run meaningless. Let's hope the Bucs receive the opening kickoff. Our model has Irving at 76 yards. Dallas is second-to-last in the NFL in allowing 150.3 YPG on the ground.

Somewhat mixed injury news for the Niners in that Trent Williams will play but Nick Bosa will not in this CBS game and possible Super Bowl preview. Denver has played with fire the past two weeks -- it has the worst first-half point differential in the NFL at minus-30 -- and spent a lot of energy in double-digit rallies. The Broncos rank bottom-three in rushing offense and rushing defense. That usually would point to 0-3 and not 2-1. Meanwhile, led by MVP candidate Brock Purdy the Niners have the highest touchdown rate (48% of drives) by any team through three games this century. Purdy has just one loss in his past 10 starts with crazy-good numbers. Just think if Brandon Aiyuk was around.

I don't even know why I bother going to team sites for information because they are all such homers -- all picking the team they cover. Thanks for the guidance. It's the season for 0-3 Houston, which gets Nico Collins back. Without him the past two, the offense averaged 11.5 points per game, but Houston scored 31 against the Bills with the Pro Bowler in the lineup in the season opener. The defenses aren't close in talent, especially with the Cowboys down a few guys on that side. And they just had that long trip to Brazil and back.