Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Zach Charbonnet was Seattle's goal-line back but he's out for the season after getting hurt last week, and Kenneth Walker blew up after he left with three TDs. This seems light as I'm pretty sure the Rams aren't going to keep Seattle out of the end zone. The former Sparty Walker should be extremely busy on Sunday.
Our first 24.5 on the board and will take it -- our model has the Pats with 21 points on Sunday in Denver. It will be cold but otherwise looks decent weather-wise. That league-leading Broncos pass-rush may cause Drake Maye some major problems as he has been sacked 10 times in these playoffs and fumbled six times. The Pats haven't played on the road in a month, so I could see a few pre-snap penalties due to noise. And clearly the Broncos will be playing a slow-it-down game, we'd think, with Jarrett Stidham under center.
Pretty darn good price on the Rams' Kyren Williams considering he had 13 total TDs during the regular season. Chicago isn't all that good against the run, and I tend to think the Rams run more than usual simply due to the bitterly cold conditions and possible snow on Sunday night. And if Williams doesn't find the end zone, pretty good chance my Bears win and that trade-off is just fine by me. Just have to hope Blake Corum doesn't vulture one at the goal line assuming L.A. gets there at least once. Williams had a TD catch last week at the Panthers.
With Nico Collins out, Christian Kirk should be the primary downfield threat for CJ Stroud and Kirk blew up in the WC win in Pittsburgh with 144 yards on nine targets and that was with Collins playing a chunk of that game before leaving with a concussion. Our model has Kirk at 45 yards -- he had a 46-yard catch vs. the Steelers. The Pats may not have Pro Bowl corner Christian Gonzalez.
Last 45.5 on our board. The weather looks pretty good if chilly in Seattle. Neither regular-season game came close to reaching this total, and I sure don't trust Sam Darnold to be very good in a playoff game. Seattle has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense and is rested. The Niners are sans George Kittle, hurt in the upset in Philly last weekend. Brock Purdy is 2-3 vs. Mike Macdonald-coached teams (even when he was a DC in Baltimore) and averaging only 18.4 PPG in those. In his past five against the NFL's top-three scoring defenses including playoffs, Purdy's teams are averaging only 15.6 PPG.
Second game in six days for the Bills and second in 23 days for the Broncos. Buffalo got pretty battered in that Jacksonville loss with safety Jordan Poyer and WR Gabe Davis already ruled out for this one. Denver is only the second No. 1 seed ever to be an underdog in the Divisional Round. The first one was victorious (Eagles). Buffalo's No. 1 rush offense was largely held in check by the Jaguars. The Broncos ranked No. 2 vs. the run.
Last 46 on our board so I'll grab it. Weather shouldn't be a huge factor but it's still a warm-weather, indoor club playing outside in January. And Jim Harbaugh no doubt will want to run, run, run and win with ball control and defense. Keep Drake Maye off the field. Maye could have some butterflies in his first postseason start as well. The Chargers haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 11.
What an incredible Ravens-Steelers finale holy cow. Guess we have to deal with Aaron Rodgers one more week at least. I want to grab the hook on this Saturday game while it's there because I think this is too high even if the Panthers might be one of the worst playoff teams in modern history. Short week for L.A. and it lost in Charlotte, 31-28, in Week 13. Kinda doubt the Rams lose again but certainly believe the Cats can hang within 10.
This is largely a "I'm gonna watch it so may as well have a rooting interest" play because I couldn't care less about either team and can't say I feel mega-strongly. Well, I'd love the Ravens to send Aaron Rodgers into an ayahuasca-based retirement (please go away, but I am sure some network would try to hire him), so the best scenario I suppose would be a Baltimore 3-point win. The Steelers do get TJ Watt back, and the Ravens apparently have a bit of a bug going around -- that's happening all over the sporting place now. Lamar Jackson rarely plays well in Pittsburgh. An obviously unlikely tie works just as well for the Steelers in terms of winning the division.
I recently posted on CBS Sports and our Discord Channel the Week 18 incentives, and Tony Pollard is probably my No. 1 guy. He needs 66 yards rushing to get a $250K bonus and has rushed for at least 85 in four straight. I fully expect him to get to 67 and then get pulled, but hey we gotta try it. He also has another $250K coming for two TDs but can't say I love that.
I am a little jaded at the Bucs because I worked at the Tampa Tribune forever. Ran the desk during their first Super Bowl. True story: You see those newspapers the SB winners hold up right after? WE WIN or whatever? I invented that. Well, I was told to. We were the first. Honest to God. 2001. Giants-Ravens in Tampa. I remember my boss saying make it memorable so we can market the paper, and am like how am I supposed to do that not knowing who wins? Guess I did (pic of a ring and the Lombardi). Suppose that's my legacy.
With Seattle winning at Carolina and if the Niners beat the Bears tonight, which I believe happens, then the playoff-bound Rams have squat to play for Monday as they would be eliminated from NFC West contention. So you'd think Sean McVay, the guy who never plays his starters in the preseason, would definitely take that into account. Matthew Stafford could just sit the last two games and likely still wins the MVP.
So I will just be honest here that I don't give my Bears much shot. But I also didn't in Philadelphia and then last week in the most incredible comeback in franchise history. I think good things are coming in 2026. But they are not winning at red-hot SF after all these crazy comebacks. It will take a toll. And if certain things go right earlier (which might) they already would have the division. I am so enjoying this season but I also have asked my health provider about a pacemaker. And I'm in my 40s (possibly). The Saw guy responded anyways. ...
Joey Bosa is one sack from a $250K bonus and he probably sits Week 18 if the Bills are locked into their seed, which they very well might be. I'm sure $250K to Joey Bosa is like nickels in his couch cushions, whereas I'd probably go on a worldwide bender for a month. Well, maybe 10 years ago. Now I'd likely just buy yarn or something lame. Certainly Jalen Hurts is not easy to sack, but that we don't even need a full one is nice. Although if I'm Joey B. and closing in on Hurts and a teammate is too, I'm clipping said teammate to get that solo sack.