Derrick Henry had two TDs last time he faced Pittsburgh. ...

The smart play is definitely Dallas +3.5. I've never been accused of being smart. And I need the Lions to win for all my buddies being there tonight. So yeah, I definitely make picks for personal reasons other than stats-related sometimes. I was ready to play Dallas if Amon-Ra St. Brown and all those Lions O-Linemen were out, but they are all playing. Honestly surprised on ASB. Just can't trust Dallas away even if looking miles better lately. Probably a Detroit 3-point win so Cowboys +3.5 bettors win at a better price. Let's all win. But I can't do that number on the road.

Believe I know more about the Bears than most people alive. Not saying I'm the biggest/most knowledgeable fan ever, but between that and how I betting track them so much. Top 10. I give them almost no chance here barring turnovers/random TDs, etc. And that's fine. They got the big win last Sunday, need to focus on next week vs. the stupid Packers and are obliterated by injury on defense even with a couple of guys back. Five-day turnaround at an angry Eagles team? I really don't think this goes well. I will not only happily eat this $100 if I'm SU wrong, I will find some sort of Bear and/or Eagle non-profit animal habitation place and donate $50 to each if so. May push.

Joe Burrow will return but surely be a bit rusty (and probably not super mobile), and he won't have Tee Higgins. Star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson remains out on defense. And these defenses couldn't be more different. Baltimore has won five straight and has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense in that span. Cincinnati is allowing 32.7 PPG this season, third-worst by a team in the Super Bowl Era. Last 6.5 on our board, although maybe the Burrow news makes a few more appear.

I grew up watching the Lions on Turkey Day and it's their biggest home game of the year annually. Both teams are a bit beaten up on a mega-short turnaround. Green Bay QB Jordan Love reportedly has the same injury Baker Mayfield has but is playing through it. Love handed off with his right hand exclusively against the Vikings because of that left shoulder injury. One big hit there. I'm not that concerned with Detroit's play on Sunday as it pretty clearly was overlooking the Giants. And it will be early awaiting payback for a Week 1 loss at Lambeau. All those questionable Lions O-Linemen are active. Matthew Golden and Quay Walker are not for Green Bay.

Atlanta sure looks like one of those quit teams under a lame-duck coach rather like the Giants. Kirk Cousins resembles age 87, not 37, and that pains me to say as he's a west Michigander and Sparty. "You like that!" No Drake London, either. A couple of defensive regulars landed on IR Saturday. This is screaming "tank the rest of the way" and we fire our coach on Black Monday situation. The Saints are clearly awful -- perhaps not quite Pelicans bad; sorry for you NOLA folks as it's such a fun town -- but out of a bye and rookie QB Tyler Shough has shown some modest promise.

If the Cowboys have any shot, and I think they do have one, they certainly have to score at least 23 points. And they generally have been lights out offensively at home other than a puzzling MNF loss to Arizona in Week 9. The Philly defense has looked fabulous of late, no doubt about it, but I think a few circumstances (indoor team outdoors, struggling Packers) played into that. Dallas is averaging the most PPG (29.6) overall in NFL history by a team with a losing record through 10 games. The game total Over is 6-1 in their past seven. Our model has Dallas right at 23. If Brandon Aubrey doesn't miss a kick, and he rarely does even from 60+, then I think OK.

33.5 is quite the number. The Lions may well get there against a banged-up New York defense -- but also keep in mind the Lions have the quickest turnaround game in the NFL this season with the early Thanksgiving kick. So you'd think if they get up, say, 27-3, that Dan Campbell might metaphorically call off the dogs/lions and ideally kick a couple of field goals (to land on 33) to save some energy for that big divisional matchup against Green Bay. I wouldn't go any lower than this and our model has the Motor City Kitties at 32 points. It's not easy scoring 34 points in the NFL and why only a handful of teams have averaged at least that many in a season.

Like to think I am very professional in everything I do here, but this is absolutely a homer pick and I'll just admit it right out of the gate. This is the Bears' season in my mind. You have to scrape by here because you are gonna lose Black Friday in Philly and then probably the next week in Green Bay. So to get to 10 wins and most likely a playoff spot, this is a must. And, again, pardon my unprofessionalism but I despise Aaron Rodgers more than Danica Patrick, Shailene Woodley or his own family does. No way was I not fading him in his likely last trip to Soldier Field. If that chicken even plays (Favre would). Yeah, I'm still bitter :)

Tyrell Shavers was a huge beneficiary of Keon Coleman's absence on Sunday and now we are hearing scuttlebutt that Coleman might be scratched again. That would be interesting considering Buffalo already is super short-handed in pass-catchers with the like of Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman all out. In games where he has at least one catch this year, Shavers has topped this in four of the five. Houston will focus mostly on stopping Khalil Shakir. Our model has Shavers at 30 yards.

Three of the best SL NFL experts are on either Houston + or Under. And if they are right, and I think they might be, then the Bills almost surely are not scoring at least 26 points on a short road week. Josh Allen has been not good in two career starts in Houston, including last year when he went 9-for-30 passing in a walk-off loss. Our model has Buffalo at 24 points, and I hope that's the ceiling barring some special teams/defensive nonsense. The Texans have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in seven straight and fewer than 20 points in seven of 10 games overall. They have the NFL's best defense. And facing a terrible run defense (i.e. chew clock).

This is truly a shock number to me; completely a helmet/public number. If Patrick Mahomes and Mr. Taylor Swift played for the Colts and not the mega-popular Chiefs, this is not remotely +4.5. And they may well cover but I'm sure jumping now that we add the hook for a possible win on 27-23 or the like. Although I doubt that many points are scored. But that's even better for us; lower scoring, more likely to cover this.

Brock Purdy will be back, Ricky Pearsall probably will be for the Niners and Marvin Harrison Jr. is out for Arizona. I'm actually not sure 2025 Brock Purdy is better than 2025 Mac Jones and that's probably why this spread hasn't really moved with the Purdy news. Just seems like Arizona has quit -- if you read Wednesday's premium newsletter for subscribers, I went into some detail (and odds futures) on the Cards. Me playing a road ML team in the NFL ... checking my pulse. No stroke yet. Just feels like the season for the Niners.

I win either way. Either my Bears pull the upset or we obviously cash. Don't rule out a Bears win but not seeing it as they have been digging too many holes and needing superhero Caleb Williams in the final two minutes to rescue; why not run the two-minute offense the entire game if it works so well? I'm assuming Ben Johnson knows football better than I so will have to trust him. Quite sure I'm the smartest Bears Matt guy, but being ahead of the Nagys and the Eberflus' (Eberflii?) of the world isn't exactly a strong selling point. Let's not hire another Matt head coach shall we? Unless it's me. Hey, I led our college intramural team to a title as a player/coach.

If you join my Discord sub-room you get some really cool "inside baseball" stuff. I am certainly not ever going to speak for the model creator -- I feel like I am in the movie Labyrinth now with David Bowie -- but as far as I know, I have never seen a +money TD favorite that it has. By that I mean, the model has De'Von Achane at 1.2 TDs. I'm not saying it hasn't had another guy with a projection over a TD but I don't recall seeing it. This reminds me of the whole LaDainian Tomlinson/Shaun Alexander retro best-fantasy back in like the early 2000s. That was truly a running back Golden Corral bonanza. And I for sure still do the GC. #unlimitedtaters