Can the Cards get to 17 vs. Seattle? ...

Can the Vikings score 20 in Chicago? ...

If the Lions have any shot tonight, and I think they do, then they surely have to get to at least 24. The last time the teams played, even 44 wouldn't have been enough to beat the Bills. Our model has Detroit with 27 points. Buffalo's defense left much to be desired last week in Houston. All of our other books have this listed 24.5 so right in the sweet spot would be swell.

A scoreless draw between these Bears rivals would be nice, but the Packers already are kinda thin without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs. Top tight end Tucker Kraft says he will play but how much off a major injury? And he's unhappy about his contract. Not making this play, though, if it was JJ McCarthy still as the Minny starter under center, but Kyler Murray should be a pretty substantial upgrade. Just get the ball plenty to Justin Jefferson, and we should be good.

No Brock Bowers is not ideal for the Raiders and it knocked this down a bit, but that Miami roster is so anonymous outside of Malik Willis and De'Von Achane. Kirk Cousins should at least be competent under center for Vegas, and the two defenses don't look close from a talent perspective. Not sure I can name five Miami defenders. Somewhat doubt the Fins win a 2026 road game, and I might not get another reasonable price against them away. The Raiders might be staring at 0-7 if they are upset.

You don't give a guy $52 million in free agency and then not give him the ball at the goal line. Louisiana native Travis Etienne is the unquestioned new No. 1 in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara is old, banged up and will have a minor role apparently. This is trending as potentially the highest-scoring game of Sunday. Between rushing and receiving, the model gives Etienne a 66% shot of finding the end zone.

I'm not very high on Pittsburgh this season and would love to see Aaron Rodgers go out at 3-14 or something. But the Falcons already are down their top two pass-rushers due to injury or suspension in James Pearce and Jalon Walker. Rodgers is still capable enough to do damage with time. Rodgers seeks a 13th Week 1 win, which would tie Peyton Manning for second-most all-time. Zero faith in Atlanta QB Tua Tagovailoa, who is well under .500 ATS on the road from his Miami days. The Falcons are 0-7-1 SU all-time on the road at the Steelers, tied for the third-most road games without a win by one team vs another in NFL history.

Poor Jets fans, feel sorry for you. Just a wayward franchise. Hire a defensive-minded head coach ahead of last season in Aaron Glenn and then allow the second-most points in the league. I believe Tennessee will take a modest leap in Year 2 under QB Cam Ward, but I might be Canes biased. Ward's skill-position talent looks much better with the wideout additions of first-rounder Carnell Tate (popular OROY bet) and free-agent Wan'Dale Robinson. Seemingly smart hire by new head coach Robert Saleh at OC in ex-Giants HC Brian Daboll. The Titans might get 14 alone off returning Geno Smith INTs. Model has 29 Titans points. Great. Throw all this out if Titans backup Mitch Trubisky's feet cross the white line once short of mop-up.

Might be the lowest we get Christian McCaffrey on this prop all season so might as well. Kyren Williams is about 20 cents cheaper for the Rams but he has to worry about Blake Corum. McCaffrey doesn't have to worry about anyone other than a game-ending injury. That was such a bummer about Wednesday's opener. McCaffrey would make history tonight with a TD catch, passing Marshall Faulk for the most career by a tailback in the Super Bowl era. The model basically gives him a 69% shot of scoring combined. That's -223 on the ML.

Do I think the Pats are good? Sure, but are you aware by one metric they had the NFL's easiest schedule last year this century? And they got punked in the Super Bowl by Seattle. The reigning SB champs usually win this Kickoff Game -- and the Hawks can tie a franchise record with their 11th straight win overall. No Tre'Veyon Henderson takes away one home-run threat for New England. Kept holding out for a stray -2.5 with Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori ruled out officially, but no dice.

OK I got the 4 I was waiting on (21-17, etc. at least push). The Ravens were cash cows under John Harbaugh in the preseason. Do they just turn that off under new coach Jesse Minter? I have no idea, hence the half-unit, which I'm spinning from the Bills cash earlier today.

This won't be a typical preseason game for the Bills because they will christen the new Highmark Stadium on Saturday against Carolina, and Josh Allen will play a couple of series apparently. The Panthers do have the edge of a game under their belts and beat Arizona last Thursday but otherwise had been a terrible preseason bet the past few years. It's the Buffalo head coaching debut of Joe Brady, and new HCs generally tend to try and instill a winning culture immediately even in a meaningless game.

The Titans will be playing Mitch Trubisky some tonight. Do I need any other reason to take the Niners? I'm not still bitter over Mitch's Bears tenure (thanks to Caleb and I mostly blame Nagy anyways), but at least nowadays I'm glad they didn't take Deshaun Watson instead. Fairly surprised the 49ers are getting nearly a TD at home -- I'm going to go ahead and add the half-point. Tennessee will play its starters a bit and the Niners won't but still. The Titans are traveling across country for a nothing game even if coach Robert Saleh is an ex-Niners defensive coordinator.

Last time I saw Carson Beck in action, I nearly broke my hand slamming a table when he threw the game-clinching pick in the national title game for the Canes against Indiana. The third-round Arizona rookie will start Thursday's Hall of Fame Game exhibition opener opposite Carolina's Kenny Pickett. But it should be mostly Haynes King for the Panthers. I'd prefer Beck and Kedon Slovis for Arizona. Plus, the Cards are trying to build a winning culture under new coach Mike LaFleur, while Carolina has gone 1-5 combined in the two previous preseasons under Dave Canales. He might be in the "don't care" category with Andy Reid, Sean McVay and some others.

Honestly may not even watch the Super Bowl as I just don't care about either of these teams and I surely don't care about Bad Bunny at halftime. I'm sure the Notebook or something Hugh Grant is on as oppo programing on Feb. 8. It is an outdoor game so maybe we get some elements in Santa Clara. But giving Mike Macdonald two weeks to prepare for sack- and fumble-prone Drake Maye makes me think Seattle will keep that New England offense in check. That offense did very little in the AFC title game. And I'm sure the Pats' defense will have some surprises for Sam Darnold, too. Last 46.5 on our board. Our model has 44 points. Sagarin has 45.2.