Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Really feels like the books truly disrespect the Broncos weekly. I would say that fortune seems to be smiling on them in every close game -- like the Bears, to be honest -- and that's usually not super-sustainable. Jacksonville seems to be peaking. I do wish it would be snowing and freezing cold in Denver for a Florida team in town, but the Jags own maybe one quality away win (San Francisco). The Broncos could clinch the AFC West and conference's top seed with a win and some other results going their way. I might have worried in past years about them looking ahead a bit to a Christmas game in Kansas City, but the Chiefs are no longer relevant this year.
Raise your hand if you have been a Bears fan since can remember and missed the greatest comeback win in franchise history live. I'm just still in utter disbelief about all of it. Am I dead in a cornfield in Iowa? Will say that now I do understand why many senior citizens record stuff and delay watching sports for like an hour or two to skip through commercials on FF. The game went by much faster. This feels like one of the biggest letdown/trap games in NFL history honestly. Why would the Chiefs care one iota? Just deflation, holmes, after being eliminated last week and the Patrick Mahomes injury. Think Jackson Mahomes is at QB today; that buffoon might be better than Gardner Minshew.
Carolina's Rico Dowdle has seven total touchdowns this season, one shy of earning a $250K bonus for an eighth. You don't think his coaches and teammates know that and want to get it ASAP? Dowdle isn't making a bundle this year on a one-year deal. I will share in the Discord room at some point an excellent CBS Sports research document showing all relevant contract incentives that could be hit in Week 16. The Bucs have allowed 16 rushing TDs, among the most in the NFL.
Yeah after watching SportsCenter -- which is about unwatchable at this point; I'd rather have a root canal without anesthetic than watch that 5 p.m. High Five version -- guess we have to go Under with winds and rain. Not that I was unaware but sometimes you kinda have to see the conditions for yourself. And surely no Davante Adams for L.A. These teams combined for 40 points in ideal indoor conditions in LA earlier in the year. I don't care who wins other than if it helps the Bears; I'd much rather avoid Matthew Stafford and face Sam Darnold (DUH!) in the playoffs. Shoot, I'd rather avoid Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar version) and prefer to face Sam Darnold is what I think of Mr. Ghosts.
This is already ticking up and if De'Von Achane is ruled out for Miami, it surely will land north of -200. So let's take it now. Achane has been a huge reason the Fins have won four straight, rushing for at least 160 yards as a team in each. Will the Steelers really blow their huge Week 14 win in Baltimore for control of the AFC North by giving this one away? Miami has lost 13 straight games with game-time temperatures under 40 degrees and also 13 in a row on the road vs. teams entering with winning records. Both are the longest active losing streaks in the NFL.
I'm smashing everything under on Indy this week. Hey, if Philip Rivers can get up off his baby-making couch and light up a terrific defense on the road, I am completely fine losing this. I just can't believe that is a possibility short of some backdoor nonsense. And yes, an offshore book has a prop on Over Rivers' longest completion yardage vs. number of kids (10.5). Also an O/U of how many will be there: 4.5. Not sure how that is graded (major max limit) but I still love it.
Hopefully the Rams beat the daylights out of the Lions as that only helps the Bears, and Matthew Stafford surely will be fired up to face his former club again. But it's just not that easy to score 32 points in an NFL game. Only 25 clubs in history averaged at least that many in a season according to Grok. Or Gronk, whatever. Probably same trustworthiness. The model has Los Angeles at 27. About what I'm thinking. 30 is fine. so is 31. I wouldn't go lower.
I just posted the model sims in my sub-room on Discord and once again it has RJ Harvey quite high up on the anytime TD list -- and this seems like a crazy generous number. Yeah the Packers are pretty good defensively, but Harvey can score as a runner or receiver. He has found paydirt in two straight. Just don't get hurt. Need you next week in the Fantasy playoffs (I got a bye, much to my own surprise).
12.5 ... not sure I've seen a lower team total all season. And it makes some sense with Brady Cook set to become the first Jets undrafted rookie quarterback to start a game since J.J. Jones in 1975 when he spelled Joe Namath for a game (I honestly was not aware Namath was still a Jet at that point and I've never in my life heard of J.J. Jones; I'm sure he hasn't heard of me either). The Jets can throw caution to the wind because they aren't playing for anything. Just start chukking bombs and see what sticks. They can't get to 13? Our model has 17. And if we get a special teams or defensive TD then I think we cash for sure.
This game utterly terrifies me as a Bears fan because I can see Myles Garrett going all Charles Martin on Caleb Williams -- a la Jim McMahon in 1986 -- and set the franchise back years. I do think it's an ugly slugfest especially with the weather: Forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 10 degrees, with wind chills around -10 and some wind. It's expected to be one of the coldest games in Soldier Field history. I grew up in the Midwest. Playing football in the snow is fun. Playing in bitter cold with no snow is decidedly unfun. 20-17 or something like that works for me, but we might be looking at White Sox 6, Guardians 3.
Arizona has topped this in every home game this season. The Los Angeles defense has been shaky on the road at times, including last week's shock 31-28 loss at Carolina. Two defensive starters are either questionable or doubtful. Certainly possible the Rams get up big and just go prevent defense. Our model has the Cards at 19 points, and most of our books have this TT at 19.5.
I was just looking at our model's favorite props plays for Sunday -- which if you join the SportsLine Discord channel and then my sub-channel, I share all these charts -- and Denver's RJ Harvey is the second-favorite RB for an anytime TD with a 73% shot of scoring. Only Jonathan Taylor at 78% is higher, but he's priced -230. And if Harvey does score, that's great for me regarding the final week of the Fantasy regular season. Although I might tank/play scrubs to avoid what might be the best team in our league in the first round of the playoffs. Hello Tyrod Taylor at QB.
Pittsburgh is getting smashed on the ground of late, and Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards and two scores last time he saw the Steelers in January's WC game. Lamar Jackson isn't really running these days as he battles numerous injuries. Honestly thought this would be near -200.