I want in on the Ravens party. This line is headed to -4/-4.5 on most other books, and I think for good reason. Baltimore seems poised to hit the accelerator on their season, and reemerge as contenders in the AFC. Vikings DC Brian Flores is aggressive with his blitz attack, but Lamar Jackson has a 79% completion percentage against the blitz, good for #1 in the NFL in that category. I still have plenty of doubts about Vikings QB J.J McCarthy, especially against a Ravens defense that is finally starting to play well. If not for a surprising road upset over the Lions (who are quietly having some offensive issues), Minnesota would probably be +6/7 dogs here. Ravens flock.

This play requires a bit of blind faith in the Ravens, but with Lamar Jackson back under center, Baltimore stands a chance to cover even if its defense reverts to the unit it had been most of the season. The Ravens have gotten much healthier, though, and the Vikings enter a bit overvalued, having picked up a rare, strange road win over the Lions. Minnesota has been seriously poor against the run, so Baltimore might be able to thrive with a low-risk offensive game plan. This line becomes a bit more dicey at -4.5, but anything in between is fine.

Baltimore had extra time to prepare for J.J. McCarthy after the Lions seemed unprepared for his skillset. The Ravens typically start fast against NFC opponents. They rank first in explosive rush percentage while the Vikings rank 22nd in giving them up. I prefer the first half to avoid a late backdoor Minnesota cover. You can find this -2.5 bet under -130 at multiple books.

Now that Lamar Jackson is back under Center, the offense for the Ravens is back to its explosive and dynamic ways. What has been the real revelation during this two game winning streak, has been their defensive efforts. It'll be the defense in this game that'll help them win on the road and also cover this spread.

It could be argued that JJ McCarthy's absence prior to last week had something to do with the Vikings rollercoaster, and JJ did lead the win at the Lions in his return to the lineup last week. Though McCarthy also laid a big egg earlier in the season vs. the Falcons, and in essence is a rookie who has only a few NFL starts under his belt, after spending all of last season on the injured list following knee surgery. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson is back for the Ravens and looked good (4 TDP) in his return game last week at Miami, but also back is the Baltimore defense, allowing only 13 ppg the pas three, a big improvement from earlier this season. Play Ravens-Vikings Under

DraftKings. I’m back on Derrick Henry and his rush attempts prop this week. The bruiser has cleared this line in three straight games, and seems to be back in form with quarterback Lamar Jackson back in action. The Vikings have allowed the third most running back rush attempts this season, and have lost the time of possession battle in all three games started by JJ McCarthy. I’m ok with this at over 17.5 attempts (at plus odds, to win 0.8 units).

Amid the flurry of stats that overwhelm us each week, we see one every now and then that cannot be ignored. Lamar Jackson on the road: 32-16-2 ATS. The QB relishes his travels. Baltimore’s defense has flipped the script. In the first five games, it yielded an average of 35.4 points. In the last three: 13 ppg. This week’s acquisition of edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones from the semi-tanking Jets only brings it up a notch. Jones has amassed 19 QB pressures and 4.5 sacks, four in the last four games. Let’s not forget this marks just the fourth start by Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. While he is inspiring considerable huzzahs, he threw in one clunker and his passer rating was modest in all three outings.

We are getting a discount on the Ravens because of what kind of start they got off to. Now healthy and every game is a back against the wall situation. Minnesota is not very good and they're getting love in the market because they won a division game on the road. Fine, it happens but let's remember, JJ McCarthy threw for just 143 yards and Aaron Jones is banged up at RB. Lamar Jackson has crushed NFC teams in his career. Baltimore has extra rest. 3.5 or 4 is cheap because most of the numbers on the Ravens don't reflect a completely healthy unit. They are also very familiar with the Brian Flores defensive style from when he was on the staff with the Steelers.

Zay Flowers is having a strong season as the clear focal points of the Ravens passing attack and has delivered strong efficiency. The Ravens were definitely happy to see Lamar Jackson return to the lineup, however this could be a tough matchup for Flowers specifically. The Vikings have a good pass defense which is backed up by 8th in EPA and 6th in Success Rate. However what makes this matchup interesting is Minnesota has been a significant run funnel this season, we know Baltimore does not need to be invited to deploy a run heavy gameplan. The Vikings also double team at the highest rate in the league, which could certainly lead to decreased volume for Flowers specifically as he is the clear first option.

Jefferson is still one of the best receivers in football and he's catching plus money against a Ravens defense that is suddenly getting a lot of respect after turning the corner the last few weeks in terms of points allowed. And while I think that's legit, especially because we saw them do it last year, this total is still massive, which means we're expecting a lot of points scored by both teams. The Vikings team total is 22.5, which means they're expected to score at least three touchdowns. J.J. McCarthy played pretty well last week and should have to sling it a little bit to keep up with Lamar. Jefferson at plus money is extremely enticing as a result.

The Ravens were one of the most injured teams in the league over the first half of the season, and Wednesday they released an injury report with no one on it. The defense got a major boost a few weeks ago with the Alohi Gilman trade freeing up Kyle Hamilton in the secondary, and Dre'Mont Jones is another great acquisition to help replace Nnamdi Madubuike. It should be a tough matchup for J.J. McCarthy, and on the other side, Lamar Jackson should make enough plays to get the win and cover. At my ratings line of 4 I'm still leaning toward Baltimore.

The Vikings played better than anticipated with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback last week, but this is going to be another tough test. The Ravens defense has been excellent in recent weeks after getting healthy, and the trade for Dre'Mont Jones adds much needed help up front. The Minnesota defense was a different beast vs. Detroit with Andrew Van Ginkel back, and I could see them giving the Baltimore offensive line trouble and keeping the Ravens from hanging a big number. This matchup to me feels more like a total around 45 than 48.

John Harbaugh and Jim Harbaugh are close brothers who talk on the phone. They discuss whether they might have an Apple Pie or Sweet Potato Pie for dessert on Thanksgiving, and ask how the kids are doing. But they really talk about football, and being the great coaches they are, each brother looks for every edge possible. The Chargers played the Vikings two weeks ago. You don't think John will ask his brother, Hey, what did you see here, etc? They share insights. We know Lamar Jackson is outstanding against the NFC, going 24-3. Minnesota hasn't played Baltimore since 2021, and it didn't go well. The Ravens are well-rested and still in desperation mode.