Market is down on the Steelers, which is why they're getting a FG+ at home, but there's good reason: This defense stinks. Wanting to fade the Colts week after week, the facts are that they are one of the best teams in the NFL, and they can win in a variety of ways. The only games they’ve failed to win by a FG+ are a loss to the Rams and one-point win against the Broncos – defensive teams. This is the NFL, anything can happen week to week, but with DeShon Elliott out and Pittsburgh needing WRs to match up quality offenses, the Colts are a play despite this being a spot where Mike Tomlin normally thrives. (Remember: We said that last week and lost.)

I feel this is a clear "buy low, sell high" spot. Indy's historically efficient offense has benefited from playing all but one of their games in a dome stadium. They have also beaten up on weak teams, boasting wins over the Titans (twice), Dolphins, Cardinals and Raiders. The Steelers just have too much talent on defense to be playing this poorly, and I expect a max effort performance at home. Playing outdoors on the road, I think we could see some Daniel Jones regression here. As an underdog of 3 or more, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is 40-21-3 ATS, and 11-2-3 ATS at home in that spot, making him the most profitable coach of all-time when catching a field goal+ on the spread.

The Steelers give up the most passing yards per game (273.3) and they just lost safety DeShon Elliott to injury. Safeties Jabrill Peppers and Chuck Clark also are out, so Pittsburgh enters Sunday with two true safeties: Juan Thornhill and newly acquired Kyle Dugger. Look for Pittsburgh to put extra resources into stopping Jonathan Taylor, and for Daniel Jones to clear this prop total for the sixth time in nine games.

The total for the Colts vs. Steelers sits at 50.5. Both defenses have their warts, and the Colts give up the 3rd most receiving yards to wide receivers through eight games. With the way the Steelers' defense and Colts' offense are playing, I expect the Steelers to be in a negative game script. Metcalf gets 21.7% of Aaron Rodgers' targets, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was higher in this matchup and game script. I like Metcalf to sail over this line on Sunday.

DraftKings. Alec Pierce has clicked with quarterback Daniel Jones. After pedestrian production his first two seasons, Pierce has cleared this line in five straight games. He is also the Colts leading receiver against single-high safety sets this season, with 301 yards in just 6 games (23 targets also leads the team). The Steelers run single-high looks at the league’s third highest rate, and are allowing the most receiving yards per game to opposing receivers. Hat tip to Larry Hartstein, who is on Pierce’s long reception prop (which I also love). I’d bet this up to over 47.5 yards.

It's truly hard to find holes in what the Colts are doing right now. When you can run the ball as effectively as they are, they will be tough to beat. I loved Pittsburgh coming into the season, but am very bearish on them now. Based on what we've seen, it's hard to envision the Steelers slowing down the Indy offense. I'm laying the points here.

The Colts have the No. 1 ranked offense, producing 385 yards per game, while the Steelers have a 30th-ranked defense, allowing 386 yards per game. This is a unique Steeler defense, like we haven't seen in some time, that allows 25 points per game. This isn't a typical Mike Tomlin team. The Colts have barely punted this year as they score on almost every possession. They remind me of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams by coming out of nowhere and leading the NFL in several categories, including having the best running back with Jonathan Taylor. The Colts lead the NFL with 33.8 points a game and should be favored here by more. I think they win by 10 or more.

Unfortunately the only reasonable price on this prop is over at Fanduel as most books will make you pay a lot more juice. Daniel Jones and this offense have been leaning on the productivity of Jonathan Taylor all season, and yet, Jones has hit this number in each of his last 4 games. With the sketchy Steelers defense actually being decent against the run, I expect Daniel Jones to lean on his arm when in scoring position. Yes, JT will get his, but a lof the points will come through the air for the Colts.

Did you see what Tucker Kraft did to the Steelers on Sunday night? Similar spread, similar matchup here for Warren, who should benefit from the Pittsburgh linebackers aggressively moving downhill to stop Jonathan Taylor by piling up catches over the middle of the field. He hasn't hit six catches in the last two weeks but if the game stays close and Daniel Jones is forced to throw, he'll get there. I love the plus money number here.

This looks like a potential spike week for DK Metcalf who is clearly operating as the WR1 in a surprisingly pass happy offense coordinated by Arthur Smith. Aaron Rodgers is playing well and with the Colts coming to town, this game could lead to plenty of fireworks with a 50 point total. The Colts are very capable and are likely to push Pittsburgh considering no team is playing better offensively than Indy right now. Furthermore, the Colts are struggling to pressure opposing QBs coupled with a depleted secondary that struggles in coverage. This checks all the boxes I look for in a potential ceiling/spike game.

Had such a spectacular Thursday across the board that thought I would try and save some of that pixie dust and play what I liked Sunday now. Also, I might be in a Twix coma after tonight. Not a huge candy person, but Halloween we dance with the Twix (and Fun-Dip) devil -- #diabetes. I try not to be the "helmet" guy, but I probably am here. The Steelers don't lose B2B home games under Mike Tomlin. The Colts look just amazing. I had Daniel Jones on my Fantasy dynasty roster and cut him last year just like everyone did. Now he and Jonathan Taylor are MVP candidates. Do I think the Ravens blasting the Dolphins on TNF got the Steelers' attention even more? Yep.

Hello? The Colts are not only 6-2 ATS, but their margin of victory against the spread is a whopping 10.6 points. Pittsburgh, by contrast, is 3-4 ATS with a minus 2.1. A more significant contrast: Indy ranks sixth in scoring defense, 16 slots ahead of the Steelers. For yards allowed, Pittsburgh is superior to only two teams. Oh, the Colts stand atop the scoring offense rankings and boast a points differential of +116, well ahead of the runner-up. The bubble may well burst at some point for Indy. Until then, laying a number this small is a no-brainer.

Alec Pierce is a deep-ball specialist. His longest reception has gone for 26 or more yards in five of the six games he's played, and he caught a 50-yarder and 48-yarder the past two weeks. He happens to excel against single-high safety coverage -- a formation Pittsburgh uses at an extremely high rate. The Steelers, who were shredded in their past two games by Joe Flacco and Jordan Love, just lost safety DeShon Elliott to a knee injury. They traded for Pats safety Kyle Dugger, who had lost his starting job. This is a very vulnerable pass defense and I like Pierce to capitalize.

Michael Pittman's efficiency and volume has seen a jump over the last two games and that shouldn't change against an exploitable Steelers secondary (he's caught 15 of 18 targets over the last two games for 153 yards). Pittman should be leaned on by Daniel Jones in what is expected to be a high scoring, back and forth affair. Yes, Jonathan Taylor will also be leaned upon, but the path to destroying the Steelers is through the air and that is evidenced by Daniel Jones nearly 240 yard passing prop. Look for Jones to get the ball out quickly to his most experienced and reliable target. Best number at BetMGM. Happy to play the 55.5 number also in the market.

The Colts continue to roll against weaker opponents and have a tougher test here, at least on paper. The Steelers suffered several key injuries on Sunday, with the defense falling apart after DeShon Elliott was lost along with players in the trenches on both sides going down. It's going to be tough to stop the Colts from getting into the high 20s, and the Steelers offense has played in the 17-24 point range against competent defenses, so even though the Colts are likely to be a public side and the spot favors Pittsburgh, I'm going to lay the points while it's still 3.

That was almost enlightening to watch the Steelers on Sunday night...and realizing this team is nothing special. The AFC North also remains up for grabs, especially with Lamar Jackson back soon and the Ravens still to face Pittsburgh twice more this season. Aaron Rodgers is not quite past his sell-by date, but his receivers aren't making enough difficult catches, too reliant upon DK Metcalf (especially if TE Pat Friermuth is out). It was the defense, however, that alarmed vs. the Packers, as Sunday night became target practice for Jordan Love. Meanwhile the Colts are doing everything right in their 7-1 break from the gate, with Jonathan Taylor supplying the thunder on the ground and Daniel Jones the lightning thru the air. Play Colts