Hemmed and hawed all week as money has piled on the Falcons. The Patriots have gone through an easy schedule, and Atlanta represents a step up in class. However, New England represents difficult conditions for a visiting team that implodes when it plays outdoors. The temperature at kickoff is going to be around 50 degrees. The Falcons have lost four straight such games by an average of 19.5 points. Atlanta’s defense has impressed at points this season, but it seems like, if Bijan Robinson doesn’t get going, the offense grinds to a halt. No rusher has gained more than 50 yards against New England. There’s not much doubt in my mind the Pats win; the question will be whether they cover the spread.

B365. Hunter Henry has the unenviable task of facing the Falcons defense this week. Atlanta has allowed the fewest targets, catches and receiving yards to opposing tight-ends, and rank second in DVOA against the position (per FTN). They’ve only allowed once catch of more than 16 yards to an opposing tight end this season. Henry is under this line in four of eight games this season, including each of his last three outings.

The New England Patriots are tied with the Denver Broncos for the best win streak in the NFL at five games. The win streak featured all covers ATS by the Patriots, which I believe has finally forced the oddsmakers to adjust aggressively on New England. Keep in mind New England had a rigorous three game road trip, before returning home last week. Sometimes it’s the second home game that a team has their slip up moments, which we have seen from New England against the Raiders and Steelers. Take the Falcons plus the points after a prime time failure against San Francisco and debacle loss to the Dolphins.

Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss has 21 combined tackles the past two games, and his production should continue Sunday at the Patriots. New England is an elite matchup for opposing linebackers. Elliss has cleared this prop total in the Falcons' last three losses.

The Patriots have torn through the league's lower half -- Buffalo being an exception -- in compiling an impressive record. The inconsistent Falcons could join the list of victims, But, at its best, Atlanta has resembled a second-tier NFL team. The Dirty Birds welcome back a phalanx of recently injured players -- QB Michael Penix Jr. and WRs Drake London and Darnell Moody. The Pats will miss ailing RB Rhamondre Stevenson, whose blocking is as creditable as his running. Atlant's No. 1-ranked pass defense could bring white-hot QB Drake Maye back to earth.

Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out on Friday afternoon, paving the way for a potential monster game from the Ohio State rookie. TreVeyon Henderson should get all he can handle against a Falcons defense that can be had on the ground and in the passing game (see: De'Von Achane last week). I wouldn't mind sprinkling on two touchdowns (around 5-1) as well.

FanDuel. Kayshon Boutte has flashed in his third year. He’s second on the Patriots in receiving yards, and has cleared this line in five of eight games (including each of his last four). The Pats will face a tough Falcons defense, but one that sets up nicely for Boutte to produce. The Falcons employ a cover 3 coverage at the league’s highest rate (51%). Boutte leads the Patriots in targets (16) and yards (203) against cover 3, with an impressive 2.54 yards per route run. The Falcons defense is incredibly stingy against tight-ends, which should limit Hunter Henry, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson popped up mid-week on the injury report. I’d bet this up to over 35.5 receiving yards.

Hunter Henry has seen his role diminish in recent weeks and that could spell trouble for him against a very stingy Atlanta pass defense. Henry is coming off by far his least efficient game of the season capped off by a 4% first read target rate. The Falcons who are a significant run funnel have covered enemy Tight Ends very effectively this season. Atlanta has surrendered just 105 yards to the position, which is by far the lowest mark in the league. To put that number into perspective, Miami has given up over 600 yards to opposing Tight Ends.

I’m tentatively expecting Drake London to suit up for Sundays tilt against the New England Patriots. London is dealing with a hip injury that could possibly limit his effectiveness in what is a very difficult matchup against Christian Gonzalez and an elite Patriots defense. At first glance the New England pass defense looks average and vulnerable however their season long stats are misleading, since Gonzalez has returned to the lineup they’ve been excellent in all phases. London has played well this year but operating at less than 100% with very sticky coverage in what should be a less than ideal game environment, this looks like a good spot to fade the Falcons WR1.

When Bijan Robinson plays with Michael Penix, he draws a big target share. These are his receiving-yards totals with Penix: 100, 25, 39, 106, 68, 52). He drew three targets with Kirk Cousins last week, finishing with 23 yards. Penix (bone bruise) is expected to return Sunday. lost on this exact prop last week but am fine going back to the well due to the matchup. New England is elite against the run (No. 1 in yards per carry allowed to RBs vs. expectations) but allows the third-highest target share to opposing running backs. Their inside linebackers, Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss, are terrible in coverage. On passes thrown their way, QBs are 56 for 61 while averaging more than 10 yards per completion.

The Falcons are coming off an embarrassing showing against the Dolphins, but they could be much healthier for this game with Michael Penix, Drake London, Jalon Walker and others potentially returning. The lookahead line for this matchup was only Patriots -2.5, so this is a massive move based on a poor result by an undermanned Atlanta squad. The Pats have beaten up on Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel in recent weeks, and the lookahead lines (Falcons catching seven vs. a much better Colts team and Patriots catching 2.5 at Bucs) suggest the ratings for these teams don't support this line at all if the Falcons get key guys back. I'm taking this now that it's at 6.

As this line probably isn't moving down we might as well get on the Patriots bandwagon early this week. Mike Vrabel is pushing all of the right buttons as New England has now won and covered five in a row to bolt to the lead in the AFC East. Drake Maye continues well ahead of the learning curve for a second-year QB as all systems appear go, offense and defense, at Gillette Stadium. Meanwhile the Falcons look to be slumping as their offense has once again veered off course, the latest when Kirk Cousins proved inadequate in relief of Michael Penix at QB in Sunday's humbling 34-10 loss to Miami. Atlanta has scored just 10 points in each of its last two games. Play Patriots