As mentioned in Rashid Shaheed's anytime touchdown scorer writeup, we've got a player who is familiar with the scheme, is lethal running down the field and gets the best play-action passer in football throwing him the ball in Sam Darnold. The Seahawks will want people to know how they can use Shaheed, so he should get several deep looks in this game. He cleared this number in 4/5 games last year before being injured and has gone over it three times this year with much, MUCH worse quarterbacks throwing him the ball.

The Seahawks traded for Rashid Shaheed this week, which would normally make us nervous about playing his props. But Shaheed is very familiar with Klint Kubiak's scheme, having played for him in 2024, when he was a beast downfield, averaging 17.5 yards per catch in six games before suffering a season-ending injury. The Seahawks will want to get him some shots down the field to put some scary tape out there for defensive coordinators. I fully expect 2-3 play-action shots for the new weapon from Sam Darnold and think one of them ends with the speedster scoring.

With Rhamondre Stevenson still missing practice as of Thursday, Henderson should be the "primary" guy in the backfield for the Patriots. In a game with a high total, we should see plenty of passing, especially because neither team gives up anything in the run game. Josh McDaniels loves passing to running backs as an extension of running and he had Drake Maye throw Henderson's way six times last week, with the explosive rookie pulling in four of them for 32 yards. I expect a lot more of that this week as well.

The Jets have given up plenty of big games to opposing running backs this season, including 167 rushing yards to Chase Brown and Samaje Perine just last week. They just traded away Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, the former of whom matters a ton in run defense. When Judkins is healthy (and he's off the injury report), the Browns will give him all he can handle in the run game. He's got a 19.5 over/under on carries, so if that number is right he really just needs to average 4.5 per carry (exactly what the Jets bottom 10 run defense gives up on the season) to hit this number, which is significantly higher at other books. Laddering this is definitely in play.

Jefferson is still one of the best receivers in football and he's catching plus money against a Ravens defense that is suddenly getting a lot of respect after turning the corner the last few weeks in terms of points allowed. And while I think that's legit, especially because we saw them do it last year, this total is still massive, which means we're expecting a lot of points scored by both teams. The Vikings team total is 22.5, which means they're expected to score at least three touchdowns. J.J. McCarthy played pretty well last week and should have to sling it a little bit to keep up with Lamar. Jefferson at plus money is extremely enticing as a result.

De'Von Achane has found the end zone seven times in the Dolphins' nine games so far this season, an insanely impressive number considering how meh the Miami offense has been so far this year. More importantly for our purposes here, the Dolphins are a massive home underdog and should be throwing a bunch, with plenty of designed and dump offs coming Achane's way. Four of his seven scores have come from Tua in the pass game, and while this number is a little juicy, it's much cheaper than the rest of the market and still an extremely fair price for a guy should probably be closer to -150 to score against Buffalo this weekend. Ollie Gordon being questionable is just a cherry on top.

Sometimes you have to pinch your nose and make a play and backing the Saints qualifies just about every week. But this number has gotten too big for Carolina, who was favored around three points on the lookahead. Tyler Shough is a concern, but we saw Kellen Moore bust out a bunch of junk offense against the Rams, including plenty of Taysom Hill. I think we get (much) more of that this week and the Panthers will be less equipped to stop it. With a super low total and a Panthers offense that loves to pound the ball, the Saints should be be able to hang around just enough to stay inside this inflated number.

So here's the thing: Alec Pierce is just ... good. The fourth year wideout is enjoying a legitimate breakout and now we get a little narrative boost with his college teammate and old sparring partner/presumed good friend Sauce Gardner joining him on the roster. Atlanta's given up 199 yards to Pop Douglas and Jaylen Waddle the last two weeks. Pierce profiles as someone who can get loose on this secondary while not being the primary focus of the defense. Would play this up to 59.5 if it steams.

This number for Courtland Sutton is simply too low. Sutton has gone over this number in all but three games this year. One of those was a surprising matchup against the Colts in Week 2 and the other two were against Sauce Gardner and the Texans stingy pass defense. The Raiders don't have anyone to throw at Sutton like that, and the Broncos top passing weapon should eat in this spot. I'd expect a few shot plays to Troy Franklin, but there's no Marvin Mims for this game, so Sutton should see plenty of work as the Broncos look to move the chains. He could take care of this in the first half.

Somewhat game-script dependent prop here, because if this turns into the Raiders getting a lead or a shootout somehow, Bo Nix could see his passing attempts spike pretty quickly. I'm fine leaning into a similar game script to what we saw from the Broncos and Cowboys, in which the Broncos scored a ton of points and their opponent didn't score many. Nix was incredibly efficient with his attempts in that game, going 19-for-29 for 247 yards and the old Abe Lincoln (a.k.a. four score). Something similar to that is absolutely in play here, with the Broncos taking the air out of the ball in the second half and shortening the game, with due consideration to their schedule the next three weeks (Raiders, Chiefs, bye).

Betting on long shots down the field with this Broncos pass rush is a concern for sure. But Tre Tucker is now going to see a full workload in with Meyers dealt and he profiles as a big play threat with Brock Bowers working underneath. This number is a full two yards lower than the rest of the market and Tucker has cleared it in all but three games this year. He'll get several deep-field looks in Chip Kelly's offense and there's a good chance Geno Smith is forced to drop back 35+ times this week unless we get a total slog of a game. Even then, Tucker can take a short pass for a big gain and get us a 20-yard reception.

RJ Harvey is quietly coming on strong for the Broncos over the last few weeks and could profile as "this year's Alvin Kamara" for Sean Payton's offense. He's scored five touchdowns in the last three weeks and although a lot of them have come late in games or as a result of the Broncos having a big lead, that's pretty good news for us this week on Thursday night. Harvey's getting plenty of work in the passing game and scored the go-ahead touchdown against the Texans on a brilliantly-designed playcall that featured him running a wheel route late against Houston. He'll have plenty of designed looks on Thursday and could get all the garbage-time carries, setting him up nicely for a score at this price.

The Broncos have made their bones this year preying on bad defenses at home (28 vs. the Bengals, 33 vs. the Giants, 44 vs. the Cowboys) and they get another bad defense in the Raiders visiting on a short week with Vegas having just traded its No. 1 wideout. Plus, there's this from ClevTA on X: TNF teams off an overtime loss are 6-25 ATS since 2000 and 3-19 ATS on the road in the same stretch. The Raiders defense just played 77 snaps and has to get back on the field four days later. It's an impossible spot against a legit playoff team. I wouldn't be shocked if this closes DEN -10.

More accurate portion of Fletch's famous quote: "It's so simple." And essentially when Josh Allen is catching points at home, I am taking those points. The Chiefs are white hot and could easily win the game, but the Bills are still the Bills and this is their earliest version of the Super Bowl. Beating the Chiefs matters a lot to them and we should get a superhuman effort from Allen in this one. Let's just hope he's holding the ball last.

Give the Rams coach credit for how he handled his team's travel schedule. Once again, the Rams went to the East Coast and won, then took a red eye to London before winning again and heading into their bye. They should be well rested on defense and will get Puka Nakua back on offense and that's a bad mix for first-time starter Tyler Shough on a team that's actively looking to move pieces ahead of the trade deadline. The Rams should be able to attack with Matthew Stafford and Nakua/Davante, forcing Shough to throw a lot and allowing the Rams to pound the ball with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum the whole second half.