Laying a little juice here for a touchdown scorer but nothing crazy at all and Josh Allen to score a touchdown has hit every single game so far this season. His rushes were a little down last week but this is a massive prime time matchup, a potential Super Bowl preview and it would be stunning if Allen shied away from rushing, especially near the goal line where he's been so effective as a red zone threat.

Puka Nakua's return to the Rams two weeks ago was a big boon to the offense and after a week to shake off the rust, he absolutely exploded against the Eagles with nine catches for 125 yards in a low-scoring game with bad weather conditions and a tougher Eagles defense. MNF should be a pure shootout in an optimal LA environment with a 54.5 total and Puka will be pumped targets from Matthew Stafford. I think he finds the end zone and this price isn't prohibitive, he's also got rushing equity by the goal line as we saw last week.

Kyren Williams has taken back the majority of the workload from Blake Corum the last two weeks and in a huge MNF game, I think Sean McVay will let that trend ride. Williams is a sneaky great receiving option out of the backfield and is coming off a ridiculous 10-catch game. The pass stuff heading his way is working for the Rams offense and this number just feels way too low for his backfield receiving ability.

The Bears have been getting a lot of love for their recent defensive performance after a disastrous Week 1 against the Panthers. I think they might be a bit of a paper tiger, propped up by the offense's ability to control the ball. And while the Packers aren't looking great on offense either, they can still sling the ball around a bit. Jordan Love has really concentrated his targets on three guys this year, and Christian Watson has been his primary deep threat. That is a reasonable number against a defense that can give up long shots downfield if the Packers show up on offense.

The price differentials for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens props on Thursday night is shockingly close and I've really come around to this being "a Pickens game" for a couple of reasons. One, Pickens has really played second fiddle this season to CDL and I think the Cowboys want to get him some production. And two, this is a perfect matchup to do it: the Bucs defensive style and lack of back end stoppage caters to Pickens. I think he finds the end zone for the first time in 2026 tonight.

This is NOT for the faint of heart, because Emeka Ebugka has been a major disappointment this season after a hot rookie start last year. And now he's playing with Daniels under center and Joey Porter, Jr., in town. But this line is SO low. Even off a brutal two-catch, 13-yard game last week with a backup throwing him the ball, I'm bullish enough on this number because of the game environment: the Cowboys are one of -- if not the -- best offenses in football, and they are going to score plenty of points. The Bucs will be forced to throw and the volume should be there for Ebugka to get over this measly number.

Just like our play on Emeka Egbuka, we're banking on a Bucs receiver crossing a very low number here. Four catches for Chris Godwin is NOT a lot to ask for, especially when Godwin should serve as one of the reliable, short-yardage safety valves for Jalon Daniels in a game where he's forced to throw because the Bucs, as big dogs in a high-totaled game, will be likely playing catchup.

Prime time road chalk! What could go wrong?!!? Honestly, the only thing that could go wrong here is Ben Johnson magically manufacturing 17+ points for this Chicago offense with either a banged up Tyler Bagent or a 38-year-old Case Keenum. I don't think the Eagles are anything remotely close to a juggernaut on offense, but defensively they're elite. The Eagles really, really should score 21 points at bare minimum here against a Bears defense that can't stop anyone without hefty wind and rain conditions in play. So to cover this, in my mind, the Bears need to score 17 points. I think Ben Johnson is a genius but without Caleb Williams I don't see that happening so we back the Eagles.

This is a big number but two things make me love The King in this matchup. One, we have a weird field scenario in Brazil where we don't know how it will affect these two offenses. Two, we have a huge total. So the expectation for points is there. Maybe the field is a problem and the points don't come. But the total speaks to the defenses in play here and what they'll give up scoring wise. As such, I think there's a good chance after not letting Henry run in the second half last week we see the Ravens lean heavy on him here and he rips off a couple big runs to cruise past this. Definitely a ladder situation.

If the Chargers upset the Bills -- or give the Bills a game -- I won't be entirely surprised. It's a classic "they suck the Bills are awesome, we just have to take the Bills" situation. But if the Chargers are in the mix here, it's because they get better on offense, not better on defense. Which means the Bills will also have to throw the ball quite frequently. The Chargers defense gave up multiple deep balls to the Raiders and you can paint shades of Tre Tucker with Josh Palmer, particularly the way he's been involved this year down the field. At this price I am very interested.

In a pass-heavy gamscript against the Bears in Week 1, the Bryce Young targeted his running backs five times. In an *extremely* non-pass-heavy gamescript in Week 2 against the Falcons, Bryce Young targeted his running backs three times. The Browns can limit the run a bit and gave up seven catches to Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell last week. Now the Panthers don't have Jonathan Brooks, so Chubb is going to see a ton of reps and should mess around with five targets. I think he can catch three.

I think the Lions will "comfortably" win this game and by "comfortably" I mean "get up big early at home after a loss with a ton of rest, cook on offense for the whole first half and let Geno Smith and a surprisingly competent Jets offense storm through the back door in the second half." Frank Reich is a good coach! He had one bad year in Charlotte and he's elevating the key skill position guys. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson look like new men this year and I expect big games from both of them this week as they finagle a cover against a good Lions team that lacks any firepower on the back end of its defense.

This price dipped a lot closer to the weekend and, yes, I continue to pound the Jets on anytime touchdown scorer props. But that's because they have two studs who score, the offense is heavily condensed to some key players and Breece has been a monster this year. He should be more like -135 to me in this matchup against a Lions team that is more than willing to give up points and is heavily favored. Even in passing scripts Breece will get plenty of work and the high-value carries.

If you read anything I write, you are probably sick of me hyping up Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown every week. But we're hitting on a 50 percent clip now and I really think the Chiefs know Worthy is key to their season and will use this chance in Miami to scheme up some specific plays for the former first-round pick. He remains undervalued because of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce but he's going to be a big factor for Kansas City this year so we'll keep buying low.

I've been a huge fan of Dexter Lawrence since high school (shoutout Wake Forest!) and it's between him and Julius Peppers for best North Carolina high school prospect ever. But even I didn't imagine the impact he could have on this Bengals defense. He's a difference maker. Normally, Steelers in a home divisional game catching more than three points is an auto bet because of how these AFC North games play out. But the Bengals found their groove on offense last week and I do believe what my eyes are telling me about the Steelers offense: it's not very good. Dex will destroy the interior, Rodgers will be pressured and the Bengals are able to score 25+ points leaving the Steelers in the dust.