This may seem outsized, but the Lions are juggernauts at home, and a bounce back is expected after the Chiefs loss. The concern is Detroit’s secondary, which could start a UFL game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers get Mike Evans back with Emeka Egbuka cleared, and Baker Mayfield has been dynamic throwing to backups. Tampa Bay is even 16-4 ATS on the road under Mayfield. So why take the Lions? Detroit has won three straight and eight of its last 10 regular-season home games by double digits. Its offense is designed for balance, and the Bucs are not evened out defensively. Conversely, the Lions should be able to make the visitors' offense one-dimensional, limiting Mayfield’s time in the pocket. Plus, the line fell and we're bucking consensus.
The Bucs own a Top-5 rush defense, prompting me to believe Detroit will primarily attack through the air. Over the last three games, Tampa Bay has allowed 3.7 yards per carry. David Montgomery has struggled in the tougher matchups but capitalized on the easy ones. I would play this down to 45.5.
Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka will both apparently play, so yeah I think the Bucs get to 24 now in a probable shootout against a Detroit secondary missing three starters due to suspension/injury. The model has Tampa Bay with 26 points.
Mayfield soared over this rushing yards total in the first 3 games this season, but fell a few yards shy in each of his last 3. That gives us value on this number here in a Primetime matchup. Mayfield has led the Bucs to a 5-1 record with clutch play, and has gotten some huge 4th quarter first downs with his legs. Along with a banged up WR corps, Mayfield has had to navigate through an injured offensive line. I expect him to be flushed out of the pocket by monster DE Aidan Hutchinson and this Lions defensive line, that may also get DT Alim McNeil back tonight. The Lions play a high rate of man-to-man coverage, so Mayfield should have his chances to scramble.
Can the Bucs make it two wins in a row at Detroit? Or, short of that, cover a number again tonight at Ford Field after winning 20-16 at this venue last season? Baker Mayfield made the big plays in that 20-16 win a year ago though he shared the spotlight with a defense that turned away the Lions twice when deep in Tampa Bay territory late in the game. The Bucs' stop unit has been able to stand up to the Lions better than most, and the wheels seemed to come off a bit for Detroit in the loss at KC. The Lions haven't lost back-to-back since 20022, but can they stretch this margin out to 7 or more vs. a hot Mayfield? Play Bucs
Bet MGM has this total at 52.5, which is point better than you’re getting on most other books. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Goff & Mayfield on Monday night, and I don’t see how this one fails to deliver. Both Tampa & Detroit’s secondaries are ripe for the picking. Following a loss, the Lions have been world-beaters under Dan Campbell. Between both teams, they have been involved in 6 games this season that went over this total in high scoring affairs. We saw the highest total of the season yesterday (55.5 in WASH-DAL) soar over, and I’m not sure oddsmakers can set this one high enough either. Play the over and enjoy the show.
There’s no way I’m not betting on St. Brown tonight, after his fairly quiet game in a loss against the Chiefs last week. St. Brown had 9 receptions on 10 targets, but was held to just 45 receiving yards by Trent McDuffie and the well-coached KC defensive backs. St. Brown also had an uncharacteristic drop on 4th down, which proved to be a turning point in that game. I expect him to come out firing on all cylinders tonight, against a Bucs secondary that is vulnerable to get beat by explosive plays. St. Brown always gets strong target share, so I’m good with playing this high receiving yards total. The game total of 53.5 implies offense, and St. Brown should be a focal point tonight.
This is way more juice than you will normally see from me, but Fanduel is giving us a price that I think has some value. Most books have this in the -170 range and it's for good reason. Baker is up against a decimated secondary tonight, but the Lions defensive line will be stout. That will translate to an air attack from the Bucs and I expect them to put up their points via the passing game. I'll note I lean to Baker Mayfield's pass completions, attempts and yardage over, but I'm waiting for some lines to settle back down to where I'm more comfortable taking them.
The Lions love to utilize play action which has been a staple of Detroits offense back when Ben Johnson was calling plays. This has carried over to new OC John Morton and this sets up well for Amon Ra Saint Brown who has been both heavily targeted and extremely efficient, posting an ultra elite 3.65 YPRR on play action. The Bucs are a pass funnel due in large part because of the strength of their run defense, however they’re also very capable of pushing their opponents into additional passing volume. Tampa also blitzes at a high rate and unsurprisingly both St. Brown and Jared Goff have been highly effective. This game offers plenty of elements that could lead to a ceiling game for St. Brown.
Otton is over this receiving yards total in back-to-back weeks, and has another opportunity for a productive game here. The Lions secondary is undermanned coming into Monday night, so I imagine their backup DB’s will play a heavier dose of zone coverage and look to limit explosive throws from Baker Mayfield. The Bucs have a banged up O-line, an injury-ridden WR room, and no Bucky Iriving. Mayfield might need to get the ball out quick against Detroit’s pass rush. Otton should see enough targets to clear this total for a third-straight week.
DraftKings. Coming back to this line after missing on Rachaad White’s reception prop last week. I once again love the matchup for White, who should see a 75-80% snap share on pass plays. The issue last week was that Baker Mayfield only had to drop back 25 times - I don’t see that being the case against the Lions. Detroit’s run defense is fifth in DVOA against the rush (per FTN), which should lend to more passing. And even with Mike Evans and possibly Emeka Egbuka back in the fold, Mayfield has maintained a steady 20% target share to running backs, throughout his time with the Bucs. I have White seeing 6 targets on Monday Night, and I’d bet this up to -145.
The Lions secondary is beat up and will likely be without their top two corners on Monday. Mayfield has been outstanding, playing himself into the MVP discussion. This is another spot where I expect the former No. 1 overall pick to have a big time performance.
The Lions are extremely thin in the secondary. CB’s Terrion Arnold & Avonte Maddox have been ruled out, FS Kerby Joseph will miss this game with a knee injury, and SS Brian Branch is serving a one-game suspension. Mayfield should look to exploit Detroit through the air, after watching Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have their way with them last week. The Bucs are +6 dogs and the total is 53.5, which imply they could be in a trailing game script and/or shootout against the Lions. Mayfield is a legit early season MVP contender, and I expect him to try to show out on Monday night. I would play this up to 35.5.
The Buccaneers are dealing with a number of injuries at receiver, but they'll likely have Mike Evans back and could even have Emeka Egbuka available. The situation is certainly better than that of the Lions, who will be without two starting corners and two starting safeties. That's a matchup where the MVP front-runner should excel throwing the ball to just about anyone, and I expect Mayfield to deliver his fourth straight game with 250+ passing yards. Even better, the spread suggests the Bucs will be in chase mode and throwing in the second half. I'd play this up to 249.5 even if Egbuka is ruled out.
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense. It's much easier to throw on them than to run into the teeth of a defense featuring Vita Vea. On the road, Tampa Bay is giving up 271 passing yards per game (Atlanta, Houston, Seattle). This sets up as a huge game for Jared Goff, who is expected to get back left tackle Taylor Decker.
I am starting to research some Monday night stuff and came across Jared Goff's passing yardage total and thought it was awfully low -- why taking it now as I believe it rises (one of our books has 259.5). Granted, he has topped this just twice so far in 2025, but I expect a shootout Monday vs. Baker Mayfield and Goff might have three bills by the third quarter. Our model has him at 261 yards and our AI at nearly 300. Last year in Week 2 at home vs. the Bucs, he threw for 307.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss in Kansas City that exposed their defensive injury issues. Patrick Mahomes got whatever he wanted through the air, and it could be a similar situation this week with potential MVP Baker Mayfield coming to town. Despite losing another receiver to injury on Sunday, Mayfield threw two long TDs and had no issue putting up points on a solid 49ers defense. With the Bucs' quality rush defense, I don't think the Lions will be able to salt away this game, and I trust Mayfield to keep his team close in the second half.
Vaki rushed 11 times for 65 yards in Sunday's 19-15 win over the Vikings. He added one catch for five yards on one target.
LaPorta caught three of five targets for 33 yards in Sunday's 19-15 win over the Vikings. He added two rushing yards on one attempt.
Godwin failed to catch his lone target in Sunday's 16-0 win over the Falcons.
Mayfield failed to complete any of his three pass attempts in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday. He also rushed four times for 14 yards.
Goff completed 18 of 25 passes for 176 yards with a touchdown and an interception and added three carries for no gain in the Lions' 19-15 win over the Vikings on Sunday.
Williams brought in four of six targets for 70 yards and a touchdown in the Lions' 19-15 win over the Vikings on Sunday.
Gainwell rushed 25 times for 140 yards in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Campbell (neck) will remain in a local hospital Sunday night.
Irving rushed 27 times for 170 yards and a touchdown in the Buccaneers' 16-0 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
St. Brown secured seven of eight targets for 46 yards and rushed once for 10 yards in the Lions' 19-15 win over the Vikings on Sunday.
