Larry's Picks (7 Live)
Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori has played 64 percent of his snaps in the box the past four weeks. He's recorded six-plus tackles in five of his last seven games, the misses coming when Minnesota and these same Rams only ran 50 offensive plays apiece. The Rams are usually a great matchup for opposing safeties; they average 61.8 plays. With Emmanwori expected to help out on Puka Nacua, I bet the rookie to record at least six combined stops.
Colby Parkinson has played 47 percent of the snaps this season. But with Davante Adams off the field, Parkinson's usage goes up. Last Sunday vs. Detroit, Parkinson was on the field for 81 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks without Adams, per Sharp Football. Parkinson has a 23 percent target share without Adams the past four games. The Seahawks have an elite defense, but covering tight ends is one vulnerability. They allowed Kyle Pitts (90 yards), TJ Hockenson (59), Trey McBride twice (127, 52), Gunnar Helm (51), Chig Okonkwo (40), Zach Ertz (46), Dalton Schultz (98), Cade Otton (81) and Juwan Johnson (51) to clear this prop total. The Rams often line up three tight ends, especially without Adams, but Parkinson gets most of the targets.
Rashid Shaheed has an explosive reception in each of the past two games. He’s gotten acclimated to Seattle’s offense, drawing 12 targets the past two weeks. He also had a long catch in the first meeting with the Rams, who are susceptible to outside receivers. In what should be a close game, I bet Shaheed to make at least one big play.
The Steelers have allowed the fifth-most yards to slot receivers, putting Malik Washington in a nice spot Monday night. He has multiple catches in all but one game and is the only Miami wideout besides Jaylen Waddle receiving significant targets. Look for Washington to clear this relatively low number for the sixth time in the past eight games.
Kenneth Gainwell has 25-plus receiving yards in four straight games. With Miami’s tough run defense, look for Aaron Rodgers to keep using his running backs in the passing game. I would play this up to 25.5.
The Dolphins have found a successful formula, using all three of their talented running backs. Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 23 or fewer passes in four straight games, and he has stayed Under this prop total in six of his last seven. Miami plays at the third-slowest pace, while the Steelers play at the 10th-slowest. It will be bitter cold, though not extremely windy. I like Miami to be very competitive and don't believe Tagovailoa will be forced into a pass-heavy script.
The Cowboys generate the eighth-most tackles for opposing linebackers, which puts Minnesota's Eric Wilson in a good spot. He's cleared this prop total in 10 of his past 11 games. And with Javonte Williams projected for around 17 carries, I bet Wilson to get to six combined stops.
Opponents have been running the ball way more than expected against Minnesota, which sets up well for Javonte Williams. He had extra rest and just racked up 67 rushing yards against a tougher run defense in Detroit. Even in Minnesota's blanking of Washington last week, Chris Rodriguez averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Look for a big workload to help Javonte Williams hit 70-plus rushing yards.