Larry's Picks (5 Live)
The Rams lost the first meeting in improbable fashion. …
Larry's Past Picks
Broncos corner Riley Moss is nursing an ankle injury, but he doesn't have a game designation. Moss will spend a lot of time covering the Raiders' top receiving option, Brock Bowers. Since Week 4, opposing cornerbacks have averaged over 15 combined tackles against the Raiders. Look for Moss, a very willing tackler, to go Over this prop total for the eighth time in 10 games.
The Raiders are relatively stingy against slot receivers (Troy Franklin), but they've been burned repeatedly by outside wideouts, giving up the third-most receiving yards. Courtland Sutton has cleared this prop total in all four of his home games (61, 81, 87 and 67 yards). Marvin Mims has a chance to return from his concussion, but either way I like Sutton to be the focal point of a revived passing game. Facing the Raiders' tired defense, look for Sutton to dominate.
The Raiders allowed the Jaguars to score on six consecutive drives to end Sunday's 30-29 home loss in overtime. Las Vegas' defense was on the field for a whopping 77 plays. Bo Nix has played well against the NFL's softer defenses, and this matchup qualifies. Especially with the Raiders, on a short week, traveling to altitude. Geno Smith has Brock Bowers back, but he struggles when pressured. Now he has to deal with the league's top pass rush. I would lay anything less than 10.
Cardinals wideout Michael Wilson has benefitted from playing with Jacoby Brissett, as he registered 44 and 40 receiving yards the past two games. In Arizona's last game, vs. Green Bay, Wilson ran 37 routes compared to 43 apiece for Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. No other receiver or tight end ran more than 24 routes. Against Dallas' league-worst pass defense, look for Wilson to go Over this prop total for the third straight game.
Let's take a look at the Cardinals' five-game losing streak. They lost by one at San Francisco, by three to Seattle, by four at Indy and by four to the Packers. Of course they also lost at home to Tennessee, but remember, they were about to take a 28-6 lead when Emari Demercado dropped the ball short of the goal line. The Cards led in the fourth quarter in each of those five losses. Dallas ranks dead last in pass defense and will again be without both starting safeties plus at least one depth safety. Another safety is questionable. Look for the Cardinals, who used the bye as a reset, to keep it close on Monday Night Football.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been an inefficient runner the past three weeks, rushing for a total of 119 yards on 39 carries (3.05 ypc). Now he faces a stout Seattle run defense that allows a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Over the past three games, the Seahawks are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil is questionable with a hamstring injury. Even with Jayden Daniels returning, look for Croskey-Merritt to keep struggling.
Late money loves the home dog in this matchup, especially with Seattle's Cooper Kupp being ruled out. But the Seahawks are clearly the better team and the Commanders won't have top wideout Terry McLaurin to help Jayden Daniels in his return. Sam Darnold leads the NFL in explosive pass plays and is facing a Washington defense that ranks 27th in defending them. Seattle also owns the NFL's best run defense.
The Bills' defense is depleted and will have trouble matching up against a Chiefs' offense that's loaded with speed. K.C. has won three straight by double digits, allowing 24 total points in that span. The Bills had dropped two straight until they got fortunate and got to face Andy Dalton. This is another challenge entirely.
Saints safety Justin Reid has been very active the last couple games, racking up 13 combined tackles. This is another strong matchup as I expect LA to dominate time of possession. That should help Reid rack up at least six stops.
Tyler Shough played with Juwan Johnson at Oregon. When Shough replaced Spencer Rattler last week, he targeted Johnson five times. Look for the Saints to be trailing and forced to throw as two-touchdown underdogs at the Rams. That should mean plenty of targets for Johnson.