Sean Payton said Bo Nix will play about 14 snaps in his return Friday from a fractured right ankle. While the Packers also will play their starters some, Denver has been a preseason machine, winning eight straight. The Broncos have scored 27 or more points in seven of those eight. Playing at altitude won't be easy for the Packers, who got blown out at Pittsburgh last week.

Malik Willis has taken a step forward in practices lately and will play, along with some other starters. The Commanders also will play some starters but there are bigger injury concerns on Washington’s side. Dan Quinn went 0-3 straight-up in the preseason last year and is 7-20 alltime. Miami may not get more than a few regular-season wins but I like the Dolphins here at less than a field goal.

Titans coach Robert Saleh's first preseason game comes at San Francisco, where he served as defensive coordinator last season and also from 2017-20. While both teams will put more emphasis on Tuesday's joint practice, I'm betting Tennessee will care more about Thursday's game. The 49ers scheduled practices for Saturday and Sunday -- important opportunities for relevant players -- while the Titans won't practice again until Monday. Saleh is 10-2-1 straight-up in the preseason, 10-3 ATS. The Titans' main backup quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky and Will Levis, both have plenty of NFL starting experience. Tennessee is the only road team favored Thursday for a reason.

The Panthers are coming off a division title, and they've already suffered several significant injuries in training camp. Expect Dave Canales, who is 0-6 ATS in preseason games, to prioritize health. Kenny Pickett will start for the Panthers, then undrafted free-agent Haynes King will make some plays with his arm and legs. But the Cardinals have the edge with Carson Beck starting. The third-round pick, who led Miami to the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game, struggled early in camp but turned a corner recently. His backup, Kedon Slovis, has extensive preseason experience. New coach Mike LaFleur has set an intense tone in camp. This game means more to the upstart Cardinals.

It's been four months since any team not named the Rams had major offensive success vs. Seattle's NFL-best defense. The Patriots' offense has looked shaky in the playoffs, a trend I expect to continue Sunday. Drake Maye has taken 15 sacks in three playoff games. While New England's defense has been just as impressive as Seattle's lately, the Seahawks have the more explosive offensive playmakers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Kenneth Walker). That should enable Seattle to make enough plays and win a 23-16 type of game.

Opposing tight ends averaged 8.32 targets versus the Seahawks, sixth-most. But in terms of target share, Seattle stands as the NFL's top tight-end funnel. The Seahawks stuff the run and possess an elite secondary that blankets wideouts. That will prompt Drake Maye to look for his No. 1 tight end early and often. When Henry has faced tight-end funnel defenses this season, he typically draws a ton of volume.

Seahawks backup running back George Holani ran 17 routes last week (one more than Kenneth Walker), catching three of four targets for 27 yards. The Boise State product suffered a hamstring injury in November but returned for the NFC title game. He earned praise from Mike Macdonald for being ready to make an immediate impact. Holani, who is excellent in pass protection, played 23 snaps (34.3 percent snap share). That included work in the two-minute drill. The Patriots allow the eighth-most targets to opposing running backs. Look for Holani to catch at least two passes Sunday.

Kayshon Boutte is New England's best deep threat; his ADOT is nearly 17 yards downfield. In Super Bowl 60, he'll face a Seahawks defense that plays a lot of 2-high safety coverage, protecting against the deep ball. Seattle gives up the fifth-fewest explosive passes (20-plus yards). Look for Boutte to make a big play or two but to stay Under on receptions.

Kenneth Walker rushed 19 times for 62 yards in the NFC Championship Game. He's arguably facing a tougher run defense in the Super Bowl. Over their past four games (playoffs plus Week 18 vs. Miami), New England has faced 93 rush attempts and allowed a total of five yards before contact. Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore have been stout up front, with safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins stepping up in run defense. Linebacker Jack Gibbens would be an adequate replacement if Robert Spillane (ankle) can't go. With New England giving up 3.1 yards per carry in the postseason, I bet against Walker having a big day on the ground.

When the Rams went to Seattle in Week 16 and scored 30 points in regulation, they did not have Kevin Dotson, Davante Adams nor Tyler Higbee. All are back for the league's top offense. Weather won't be a factor in Seattle, so I like the Rams to score at least 23. The Seahawks possess an elite defense but it's one Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can solve.

Kyren Williams has 48 receiving yards on seven targets in two playoff games. Seattle has given up an average of 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Counting the postseason, Williams has cleared this prop total in five straight. The Seahawks possess an elite run defense. Look for Matthew Stafford to trust his veteran running back to move the chains as a receiver.

Seahawks tight end AJ Barner was not targeted last week, but this is a great matchup for him. He had 10 catches and four catches in the two meetings with the Rams, drawing a total of 17 targets. The Rams have given up 23 receptions to opposing tight ends over the past three games. While Seattle rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo could be activated from IR for this game, I still like Barner to make at least three grabs.

RJ Harvey has been highly inefficient as a runner lately, averaging 3.3 yards or fewer in his past three games. He has more value as a receiver. Now J.K. Dobbins has returned to practice (on a limited basis), and there is a chance he'll be activated for the AFC Championship Game. With Milton Williams on the field, the Pats' run defense has been elite. BetMGM is offering this line while other books are not, perhaps waiting for more Dobbins news. I'm willing to bet it now; it has a good chance to cash even if Dobbins remains out. Harvey gained 20 yards on six carries last week vs. Buffalo's porous run defense.

Over the past six games, Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged over 7 yards per carry while breaking 16 tackles. This is a game in which New England will stay committed to the run, trying to minimize Denver's ferocious pass rush. James Cook ran for 117 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry at Denver last week. Look for Stevenson to rush for 50-plus yards.

Puka Nacua has 11 receiving and two rushing touchdowns this season, including one of each last week at Carolina. The Rams have given him five carries in the past two games, both must-win situations. He also has received double-digit targets in six straight games. Look for Nacua to get in the end zone at least once Sunday in Chicago.