Kenneth Walker rushed 19 times for 62 yards in the NFC Championship Game. He's arguably facing a tougher run defense in the Super Bowl. Over their past four games (playoffs plus Week 18 vs. Miami), New England has faced 93 rush attempts and allowed a total of five yards before contact. Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore have been stout up front, with safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins stepping up in run defense. Linebacker Jack Gibbens would be an adequate replacement if Robert Spillane (ankle) can't go. With New England giving up 3.1 yards per carry in the postseason, I bet against Walker having a big day on the ground.
Kayshon Boutte is New England's best deep threat; his ADOT is nearly 17 yards downfield. In Super Bowl 60, he'll face a Seahawks defense that plays a lot of 2-high safety coverage, protecting against the deep ball. Seattle gives up the fifth-fewest explosive passes (20-plus yards). Look for Boutte to make a big play or two but to stay Under on receptions.
Seahawks backup running back George Holani ran 17 routes last week (one more than Kenneth Walker), catching three of four targets for 27 yards. The Boise State product suffered a hamstring injury in November but returned for the NFC title game. He earned praise from Mike Macdonald for being ready to make an immediate impact. Holani, who is excellent in pass protection, played 23 snaps (34.3 percent snap share). That included work in the two-minute drill. The Patriots allow the eighth-most targets to opposing running backs. Look for Holani to catch at least two passes Sunday.
Opposing tight ends averaged 8.32 targets versus the Seahawks, sixth-most. But in terms of target share, Seattle stands as the NFL's top tight-end funnel. The Seahawks stuff the run and possess an elite secondary that blankets wideouts. That will prompt Drake Maye to look for his No. 1 tight end early and often. When Henry has faced tight-end funnel defenses this season, he typically draws a ton of volume.
It's been four months since any team not named the Rams had major offensive success vs. Seattle's NFL-best defense. The Patriots' offense has looked shaky in the playoffs, a trend I expect to continue Sunday. Drake Maye has taken 15 sacks in three playoff games. While New England's defense has been just as impressive as Seattle's lately, the Seahawks have the more explosive offensive playmakers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Kenneth Walker). That should enable Seattle to make enough plays and win a 23-16 type of game.
Seahawks tight end AJ Barner was not targeted last week, but this is a great matchup for him. He had 10 catches and four catches in the two meetings with the Rams, drawing a total of 17 targets. The Rams have given up 23 receptions to opposing tight ends over the past three games. While Seattle rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo could be activated from IR for this game, I still like Barner to make at least three grabs.
Kyren Williams has 48 receiving yards on seven targets in two playoff games. Seattle has given up an average of 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Counting the postseason, Williams has cleared this prop total in five straight. The Seahawks possess an elite run defense. Look for Matthew Stafford to trust his veteran running back to move the chains as a receiver.
When the Rams went to Seattle in Week 16 and scored 30 points in regulation, they did not have Kevin Dotson, Davante Adams nor Tyler Higbee. All are back for the league's top offense. Weather won't be a factor in Seattle, so I like the Rams to score at least 23. The Seahawks possess an elite defense but it's one Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can solve.
Over the past six games, Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged over 7 yards per carry while breaking 16 tackles. This is a game in which New England will stay committed to the run, trying to minimize Denver's ferocious pass rush. James Cook ran for 117 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry at Denver last week. Look for Stevenson to rush for 50-plus yards.
RJ Harvey has been highly inefficient as a runner lately, averaging 3.3 yards or fewer in his past three games. He has more value as a receiver. Now J.K. Dobbins has returned to practice (on a limited basis), and there is a chance he'll be activated for the AFC Championship Game. With Milton Williams on the field, the Pats' run defense has been elite. BetMGM is offering this line while other books are not, perhaps waiting for more Dobbins news. I'm willing to bet it now; it has a good chance to cash even if Dobbins remains out. Harvey gained 20 yards on six carries last week vs. Buffalo's porous run defense.
The Rams have cleared this total in seven of their last eight games. Their best offensive lineman, Kevin Dotson, and field-stretching tight end, Terrance Ferguson, have a good chance to return from injury Sunday. Matthew Stafford is a full go despite a minor sprain of his right index finger; he leads the NFL in explosive pass plays. Over the past three games, the Bears have given up 6.4 yards per play. They just lost their best linebacker, T.J. Edwards, to a serious leg injury. While the forecast calls for bitter cold, the wind won't be too bad. That's a huge benefit to the high-flying Rams.
Puka Nacua has 11 receiving and two rushing touchdowns this season, including one of each last week at Carolina. The Rams have given him five carries in the past two games, both must-win situations. He also has received double-digit targets in six straight games. Look for Nacua to get in the end zone at least once Sunday in Chicago.
Drake Maye ripped off a 37-yard run last week, the fourth time in five games he has cleared this prop total. Now he's facing the NFL's scariest pass rush, which should force some scrambles. Since Week 13, Houston has allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt and fourth-highest EPA per carry on QB runs. When he faced NFL sack leader Myles Garrett and the Browns, Maye got loose for a 28-yard run.
The Texans' defense is truly scary, but it won't be as easy to stymie New England as it was Pittsburgh. Drake Maye is very elusive and the Pats' offense is far more imaginative. Maye went 11 of 14 for 173 yards and a touchdown in the second half of the Wild Card win. The Pats' defense looked healthy and stout in shutting down the Chargers. With Christian Gonzalez cleared, the Pats should be able to hold down a Houston attack missing Nico Collins.
Cooper Kupp had a 24-yard catch against San Francisco in Week 18, putting him on an 8-4 run to this Over. The veteran wideout benefitted from the bye and should be able to make a big play against the 49ers, who are quite vulnerable to slot receivers. Go Over on his longest catch at 16.5 or lower.