Larry's Picks (3 Live)
The QB situation is unclear for both teams early in the week. ...
Larry's Past Picks
The Lions are banged-up in the secondary, enabling Amik Robertson to grab an every-down role. He has 11 tackles over the past two games. Now he's facing the Cowboys' high-octane passing attack, which has generated a high rate of tackles for opposing corners. I love Robertson to rack up at least four combined stops.
George Pickens practiced fully Tuesday, setting him up for another big game. It will be played indoors, against a Lions defense that plays the most man coverage (42.8 percent) and third-most single-high safety (61.4 percent) in the NFL. Pickens destroys those alignments. He's cleared this prop total in seven straight games and has 68 targets in that span.
David Montgomery is not the preferred receiving back for Detroit, but the Lions are shorthanded in terms of targets. Detroit's top two tight ends are out, while Amon-Ra St. Brown is truly questionable with a sprained ankle. Montgomery has a reception in all but one game and over the past two weeks, he has caught all five of his targets for 35 yards. The Cowboys have surrendered 18 catches to opposing running backs over their past three games.
Since Quinnen Williams' arrival, the Cowboys have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL to running backs (117 yards on 36 carries). They just knocked off both of last year's Super Bowl participants. While Dallas will miss Jadeveon Clowney, the Lions' injuries are more severe. Dallas is arguably the better team right now. Grab the field goal.
TreVeyon Henderson has drawn nine targets in the past couple weeks, both games in which New England led for long stretches. With the Patriots dealing with offensive line issues, look for Drake Maye to use Henderson as an outlet multiple times. He has the explosiveness to potentially clear this prop total in one catch.
Patriots wideout Kayshon Boutte returned from a hamstring injury last week at Cincinnati and finished with two catches for 15 yards. But he led the team in routes. Boutte wasn't on the injury report this week. He's facing an aggressive Giants' defense that plays man coverage at the third-highest rate. Boutte creates great separation, averages 17.8 yards per catch and is Drake Maye's favorite deep threat.
Theo Johnson excels against man coverage, which the Patriots play at the ninth-highest rate. The Patriots have three good corners in Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones but their linebackers have struggled to stay with tight ends. Johnson has overcome his early-season drops and has a strong connection with Jaxson Dart. I like Johnson Over on catches and receiving yards, but prefer to bet him this way and bank on one explosive play.
The Giants are playing hard for interim coach Mike Kafka, losing one-score games to the Packers and Lions. Now they take on another high-level team, but the Pats' win in Cincinnati was costly. Starting left tackle Will Campbell and starting left guard Jared Wilson weren't the only Pats knocked out. They also lost All-Pro special teamer Brenden Schooler and starting defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga to injury. Whether it's Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart at quarterback, I like the Giants getting over a touchdown. New York also could get a boost from the long-overdue firing of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen.
I like the Commanders to be competitive Sunday night with Terry McClaurin back, but this number is too low for Broncos rookie RJ Harvey. He should get a ton of opportunities against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in rushing efficiency defense and 27th in explosive rushes allowed. The Commanders also give up the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing backs -- one of Harvey's biggest strengths. With J.K. Dobbins out, look for Harvey to be very productive coming out of the bye.
Yes the Broncos get Patrick Surtain back, but Washington also gets key reinforcements including Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne and Will Harris. Thanks to its inconsistent offense, Denver has a slew of narrow wins over bad teams. Look for another on Sunday Night Football.
The Bills rank 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.3), and starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) has been ruled out. Warren has cleared this number in three straight. Last week against Chicago, Kenneth Gainwell was far more effective than Warren. But it should be noted Warren had been on the injury report with an ankle issue. This week Warren was not on the injury report, so I'm expecting more explosion.
The Chargers are regularly using three safeties, which has increased Derwin James' tackle opportunities. He had seven combined stops in the first meeting with Las Vegas. Look for James to get at least six combined tackles in the rematch.