The Broncos already have knocked off two contenders at home. ...

The Chargers’ season is all but over. …

The Rams enter with momentum after a scintillating comeback win in Philly. All of their offensive playmakers are healthy, and they'll be facing a defense that's giving up 26.8 points per game. We haven't seen injury reports yet, but the Bills had wide receiver D.J. Moore, defensive tackle Ed Oliver, cornerback Dee Alford and defensive back Te'Cory Couch all leave last week's home loss to the Patriots. And starting corner Christian Benford didn't play with a toe injury. The Rams had a brutal travel schedule to start the season, including a trip to Australia and then visits to Denver and Philadelphia. They rolled in their only previous home game. I like them by a touchdown over Buffalo.

Ty Johnson is an excellent receiving back who’s caught six passes for 59 yards in two games. The Bills could very well be playing from behind Monday night. It is difficult to attack the Rams’ corners but their linebackers can be vulnerable. Look for Johnson to stay involved in the passing game.

Christian Benford missed last week's loss to New England with a foot injury, but he does not have an injury designation for Monday Night Football. As the Bills' top corner, he will spend a lot of time tracking Puca Nacua. Benford is a willing tackler, racking up 16 through three games. In this matchup I like him to get at least five combined stops.

I bet the Falcons +3.5 amid the uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson. He sprained his ankle vs. the Titans and is scheduled to get an MRI. Even if Jackson recovers, there's a chance he will be playing at far less than 100 percent. If Tyler Huntley is running the offense, Atlanta has a great chance to hang and possibly win outright. The obvious risk in this bet is that Atlanta has yet to play Monday Night Football in New Orleans, so we don't know how the Falcons will come out of that game health-wise on a short week. In Week 4, the Ravens scored 24 points with Jackson playing and were shut out in the second half with Huntley in the game.

Derrick Henry carried 23-plus times in all three of Baltimore's wins, and 16 times in the lone loss. While the Ravens would love to lean on him in Atlanta, with Tyler Huntley expected to start at quarterback, it will be difficult to stick to the run. The Falcons give up an NFL-low 2.7 yards per carry. In addition, I expect Atlanta to control the clock with Bijan Robinson and its top-notch offensive line. Go Under on Henry's rush attempts.

The Falcons are extremely stingy against the run. With Atlanta focusing its attention on Derrick Henry, Tyler Huntley should have moderate success as a passer. He's playing indoors with his top wideout, Zay Flowers, expected to play. And if the favored Falcons are leading late, Huntley will be forced to throw.

The Lions are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. While their defense is terrible, they have a strong defensive line led by Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, DJ Wonnum and Tyleik Collins. That front gets to face an Arizona offensive line that just lost left tackle Paris Johnson and right guard Isaiah Adams to injury. Look for Jahmyr Gibbs to bounce back from his subpar game at Carolina as Detroit wins a shootout by a touchdown.

This line didn't drop to 3, as I was hoping, but I'll still back the Broncos and their discombobulated offense. Sean Payton has taken over play-calling duties, which should provide a spark. While Denver is missing its starting corners, the Chargers are so banged up at multiple positions that it may not matter. Lay the points in what might feel more like a Broncos' home game.

Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are active, but that should help create space for tight end Mike Gesicki over the middle. He's cleared this number in three of four games. And he's facing a Dolphins' defense that got shredded last week by Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson.

This is a tricky spot for the Patriots, who are coming off a season-saving divisional win at Buffalo. They have another division game on deck with the Jets coming to Foxborough, Mass., in Week 6. Cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Carlton Davis (neck) continue to miss practice and seem unlikely to play. Back the Raiders and Kirk Cousins (11 TDs, 4 INTs) to improve to 5-0 ATS.

Veteran running back Aaron Jones has averaged 20 carries over the past three games, and he should get another big workload Sunday. He is dominating touches in Minnesota's backfield. Sunday, Jones faces a Saints defense that remains without linebackers Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings. With Kyler Murray back under center the past two weeks, Jones has been targeted 14 times. Even with Minnesota's offensive line injuries, I bet on another big game from Jones.

The Browns have handed the ball to a running back 67 times, and Quinshon Judkins has received 59 of those carries. He drew 18 and 17 carries in the past two games. Now the bruising second-year back, who had 10 days off, faces a Jets' defense that was on the field for 89 plays in Week 4 at Chicago. Look for Cleveland to try to wear down the Jets behind Judkins, regardless of his efficiency.

Initially I was leaning toward the Giants, who made great defensive adjustments to beat Arizona. But two factors have me on Washington now: the weather forecast (wet and windy), and Jayden Daniels' full practice participation. Jameis Winston is mistake-prone, a trait that could crop up more in these conditions. And this is a season-saving type of home game for the Commanders, who cannot afford to fall to 1-4.