Rookie safety Jaden Hicks, a fourth-rounder out of Washington State, has gotten increased playing time down the stretch. In fact, he got more snaps than Bryan Cook in each playoff game. Hicks has recorded 4-plus tackles in four straight games. He's missed only one tackle all season and earned his best tackling grade (per PFF) in the AFC title game.

The Eagles' Zack Baun racked up 12 combined tackles in the NFC title game, and I bet him to get to double digits again in the Super Bowl. Nakobe Dean is out, leaving Baun as Philly's indispensable linebacker. Even if the Chiefs don't run the ball a lot, Patrick Mahomes is sure to complete a ton of short passes. That will give the All-Pro Baun the tackle opportunities he needs.

Darius Slay, 34, has had a fine season but he’s not playing as well as fellow outside corner Quinyon Mitchell. This postseason, the standout rookie has allowed five of 15 passes to be completed while intercepting two of them. I expect Patrick Mahomes to be throwing often and avoiding Mitchell when he can. I bet Slay to go Over on his solo tackles at plus money.

The Chiefs' traditional running-back carries are going nowhere lately, with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each struggling to gain four yards a pop. But K.C. has had success giving speedster Xavier Worthy the ball. He's cleared this rushing prop number in four of the last five games. With Jalen Carter and Philly's defensive front owning a clear advantage over the Chiefs' offensive line, look for Andy Reid to get Worthy the ball on end-arounds or jet sweeps two to three times.

Isiah Pacheco's role continues to decline. He rushed five times for 12 yards in the AFC title game, while Kareem Hunt drew 17 carries. While Pacheco did catch two passes for 12 yards, he is typically not the Chiefs' receiving back. Philly just held Brian Robinson to 3.3 yards per carry and Austin Ekeler to 1.9 ypc. Look for Pacheco to have another minimal role against the Eagles.

Noah Gray was a key receiver for K.C. at certain points this season, but his receiving role has diminished since Hollywood Brown returned. In those four games, Gray has drawn five total targets. I bet against Gray making two grabs in the Chiefs' crowded target tree, which is led by Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown.

Dallas Goedert has been on fire since returning from injury, clearing this prop number in four straight. The Chiefs give up an average of eight targets to tight ends, with the TEs averaging about 12 yards per catch. It's much tougher to attack the Chiefs' corners than the linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field. Look for this number to rise as kickoff approaches.

The Chiefs are unlikely to find much success in their ground game. Vic Fangio's defense is designed to take away the big play and allow underneath completions. That fits what this Chiefs' offense does anyway. Look for Mahomes to potentially be in comeback mode and complete at least 24 passes Sunday.

While the Eagles are a run-first offense, this is a low number for Jalen Hurts' pass attempts. He threw 28 times in the NFC title-game blowout. I believe this will be a close game throughout, so Philly will have to keep pushing offensively. Hurts likely won't approach the 38 pass attempts he had in the Super Bowl two years ago vs. Kansas City, but I love him to throw at least 27 times.

Harrison Butker is 4 for 4 this postseason, and the Chiefs trust him to try 50-plus yard field goals. KC also excels at getting into the red zone, while Vic Fangio's defense thrives at keeping teams out of the end zone. In this postseason (three games), Philly has allowed TDs on just 40 percent of red-zone trips. Look for Butker to be called on at least twice and for him to deliver.

Patrick Mahomes has had a run of 12 or more yards in four straight games. He rushed 11 times last week vs. Buffalo. With Philly's ability to get quick pressure via Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr., Milton Williams and others, look for Mahomes to scramble and cash this Over.

Jalen Hurts rushed for three touchdowns in the NFC title game, and I like him to get at least one Sunday. He's scored in 12 of 18 games this season. I bet on the Eagles and think they'll score at least three touchdowns, with Hurts running one in from inside the 5.

I don't see this moving to Chiefs -2.5 or 3, so I'm taking the points now. K.C.'s run defense has been mediocre since Week 10. The Bills were gashing the Chiefs with James Cook (6.5 ypc), but curiously gave seven of 20 running-back carries to his backups, who were ineffective. There's no chance the Eagles get away from Saquon Barkley. Philly is better in the trenches -- look for Nolan Smith (4 sacks this postseason) to take advantage of Jawaan Taylor. The NFL's No. 1 defense just held Washington to 4.5 yards per play. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have only lost once -- the game Kenny Pickett played.

James Cook averaged 3.9 yards per carry against a Ravens defense that had allowed 3.0 yards per carry over its previous three games. In the Wild Card round, Cook ripped a strong Broncos' run defense for 120 yards (5.2 ypc). Now he faces a Chiefs' run defense that's weakened lately. Since Week 12 (excluding the meaningless Week 18 game), K.C. has allowed the sixth-most explosive rushes. In that same span, K.C. has allowed 4.95 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Texans averaged a whopping 3.48 yards before contact, enabling Joe Mixon to surprisingly gash K.C. for 88 yards on 18 carries (4.9 ypc). The Bills already have given Cook 40 carries in these playoffs.

DeAndre Hopkins ran a season-low 13 routes in the divisional round win over Houston. He was targeted once without a catch. With Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and others soaking up targets, look for Hopkins to fall below this prop total for the third straight game.