The Cowboys generate the eighth-most tackles for opposing linebackers, which puts Minnesota's Eric Wilson in a good spot. He's cleared this prop total in 10 of his past 11 games. And with Javonte Williams projected for around 17 carries, I bet Wilson to get to six combined stops.
Opponents have been running the ball way more than expected against Minnesota, which sets up well for Javonte Williams. He had extra rest and just racked up 67 rushing yards against a tougher run defense in Detroit. Even in Minnesota's blanking of Washington last week, Chris Rodriguez averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Look for a big workload to help Javonte Williams hit 70-plus rushing yards.
The 49ers need Christian McCaffrey to be healthy for the playoffs. They've given Brian Robinson Jr. seven or more carries in four straight games. In his last five games, Robinson has rushed for 24-plus yards each time, three times getting 40-plus. San Fran is a 12.5-point home favorite, so I like Robinson's chances of another substantial workload.
Tet McMillan has caught just three passes over the last two games. But when he faced the Saints in Carolina in Week 10, McMillan caught five of eight targets. That was a game in which Bryce Young threw just 25 times and Carolina ran a paltry 50 plays. New Orleans plays single-high safety at the fourth-highest rate; against that coverage, McMillan owns a 29.5 percent target share since Week 8, per Fantasy Points Data.
Bryce Young has thrown 30-plus passes just once in the past seven games, as the Panthers seek balance while giving Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard plenty of carries. Carolina plays at the fifth-slowest pace in neutral-game situations. New Orleans plays at the ninth-slowest pace in neutral-game situations, and opponents are averaging just 25.3 pass attempts over the Saints' past three games. While I bet Tet McMillan to catch five-plus passes, I don't expect this to be a huge volume game for Young.
The Lions gave up 417 yards of offense to a Cowboys team that didn't have CeeDee Lamb for much of the game or an engaged George Pickens. Detroit's secondary likely will be missing Kerby Joseph as well as Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold. That doesn't bode well against the league's highest-rated passer, former Lion Matthew Stafford. Even with Davante Adams' status in question, I like the Rams to win a high-scoring game by at least a touchdown.
The Chargers somehow beat the Eagles despite giving up a 68.3 percent pressure rate. (Not a misprint). Right tackle Trey Pipkins also left with an ankle injury, replaced by Bobby Hart. Traveling on a short week to play in 17-degree weather doesn't seem like a good spot for Justin Herbert and the warm-weather Chargers. Chiefs right guard Trey Smith is practicing fully and is on track to return, and All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie also has a good chance to play despite hyperextending his knee. If the Chiefs can cut down on the dropped passes -- they had six! in losing to Houston -- they should save their season and cover.
I'm expecting the Jaguars to control time of possession, putting Jets strong safety Malachi Moore in position to make lots of tackles. He's recorded seven and 10 stops the past two weeks. Jacksonville's offense generates the fourth-most tackles for opposing safeties (14.9 per game).
Bhayshul Tuten did not play a snap after fumbling last week, enabling Travis Etienne to get 20 carries. Etienne racked up 70-plus rushing yards for the seventh time. Now Etienne gets a great matchup against a Jets team whose run defense has suffered without Quinnen Williams. Since the trade, New York has given up 145.4 rushing yards per game (sixth-most). In addition, two starting linebackers did not practice Wednesday. Over the past three games, the Jets are giving up 4.7 yards per carry. This should be a positive game script for Etienne and the Jags.
Arizona has been very competitive outside of its division, but there's a reason this spread is rising. The Cardinals have ruled out eight players, including left tackle Paris Johnson, left guard Evan Brown, wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., strong safety Jalen Thompson and corner Max Melton. The Texans' elite defense, which is better at home, just held the Bills, Colts and Chiefs to a total of 35 points. Look for a 24-10 type of game and lay the points.
Despite the frigid conditions, Isaiah Likely should thrive in this matchup like he did on Thanksgiving, when he caught five of six targets for 95 yards. Lamar Jackson targeted Likely six times again last week vs. Pittsburgh. With the mishaps that have befallen Likely in those critical losses, I'm expecting another big performance from him against the NFL's worst tight-end defense.
The Bucs' leading tackler (Tykee Smith) and third-leading tackler (SirVocea Dennis) did not practice Tuesday. That would only help the receiving matchup for Bijan Robinson, who caught six passes for 100 yards in the season opener vs. Tampa Bay. Drake London (who had 15 targets in the opener) is trending toward missing another game, while Kyle Pitts is playing through a knee injury. The Bucs give up an NFL-high 10.4 yards per pass attempt to players lined up in the backfield, per Fantasy Points Data. After not being a factor in the receiving game last week, Robinson should be targeted heavily in this matchup.
Dallas Goedert has drawn just 11 targets over the past three games, with two catches in each. On Monday night he'll face a Chargers team that allows the fourth-fewest targets and catches to opposing tight ends. Even Brock Bowers last week only made four catches vs. LA.
Rashee Rice has been a target hog lately and he has the best matchup among Chiefs’ receivers Sunday night. That’s because he operates a lot out of the slot, where Houston is vulnerable. Look for Patrick Mahomes to rely on Rice against the Texans’ zone-heavy scheme.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown 34 or more passes in six straight games. On Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs’ best chance at offensive success will come via the quick passing game. That’s because their already weak run game is likely to struggle behind a makeshift O-line. Look for at least 35 attempts.