The return of Xavier Worthy has certainly helped the Chiefs level up their offense, but Andy Reid recognizing that the running attack needs to improve is where Kansas City can truly make strides. Brashard Smith getting involved in the offense gives the Chiefs much-needed passing looks out of the backfield, which should open the offense even further. The Jaguars have been a turnover-dependent team thus far, and I don’t see Jacksonville’s secondary having the same success against Patrick Mahomes. There’s no question this team has improved under Liam Coen, but over 60 minutes, the Chiefs’ experience, talent and overall matchup advantages should win out. This line does feel a hook too high, but Kansas City should emerge with a touchdown-plus margin on the road.

Kansas City erupted last weekend for 37 points but that was against a sub-par Ravens defense. Jacksonville's defense has been playing very well to take the season with forcing 13 turnovers on the season while having a +9 turnover margin which is the best in the league. The Chiefs are currently middle of the pack in tempo, averaging a little over 62 plays per game on the road and can extend possessions.

Etienne has been one of the most consistent players in the league through four weeks. He's top 10 in attempts per game, with 16 or more in all but week two -- which was their one loss. Still, he had 14, so just missing this line by the hook. The game spread tells us we should see a tight game and I think the Jags have a chance at winning outright. Regardless, when your running back has the the third most explosive run rate, you give them the ball. The chiefs rank bottom 10 in DVOA against the run.

Brian Thomas Jr appears to be a serious positive regression candidate. While it’s been a disappointing start to the season there is much to be encouraged by. First and foremost he possesses close to 100% route participation. Hes been a strong route runner this year and has posted a strong Open Score. We also love his 19% First Read Target Rate and in a game where increased passing volume is very possible, this looks like a great spot to back the talented sophomore WR.

The Jags have been living a lot off of their defense in the first month, forcing an eye-opening number of mistakes by the opposition. In each of J'ville's first four games, the defense has forced at least three turnovers, fueling the 3-1 start. While the defense looks like it can carry the Jags, maybe even to a win tonight, we doubt the Chiefs are as hospitable and give Trevor Lawrence a short field to work with, or contribute directly to Jacksonville scores. The Chiefs are also a bit more patient on offense these days, and last week's 37 points vs. the Ravens looks more a case of a shockingly-bad Baltimore defense. Play Chiefs-Jags Under.

FanDuel. JuJu Smith-Schuster has remained under this line twice in four games this season. With Xavier Worthy (questionable) expected to play, JuJu will be relegated mostly to slot receiver duties, where he’ll draw a tough matchup against Jaguars cornerback Jourdan Lewis. JuJu only has two targets that have traveled at least 10 air yards this season (out of 17 total). And I do like the Jaguars speedy linebackers and safeties to help to mitigate any YAC threat.

Mahomes broke out last week for his biggest game of the year, throwing for 270 yards and 4 TDs. Although it came over a Ravens secondary in disarray, I still like Mahomes to keep the momentum going here on Monday night. This Jaguars defense has made major improvements under new DC Anthony Campanile, but are still far from elite. Their pass rush could be negated by Mahomes’ quick release action (2.38 second avg release time). Chiefs WR1 Xavier Worthy will return for this game, who is a matchup issue against zone coverage. I like Mahomes to pass for two scores in Primetime against a Jags team that he has succeeded against in his career.

Lawrence should be forced to take off several times in this game against Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive blitz attack. KC sends pressure at the 7th highest clip in the league. Lawrence has gone over this line 2/4 games in the year thus far, and had 4+ carries in each of his last two regular season matchups against the Chiefs in 2023 & 2022. Lawrence had 7 carries last week, and I expect him to continue using his legs. As always, tush pushes and kneel downs could help us creep over this low total.

This is a high completion number, but it's warranted given how much Patrick Mahomes is expected to pepper the short area. The running game is likely to be relatively non-existent and the passing game will work as an extension of the run game. The Jaguars pass defense is not imposing and that same defense has a problem getting off the field on third downs. Look for Mahomes to have some extended drives with handfuls of completions per drive to eclipse this number.

Mahomes has 5+ carries in 3/4 games this season, and had 4 in KC’s blowout win over Baltimore. In the first two games of this season Mahomes relied on his scrambling heavily, and he may have to once more against a sneaky good Jacksonville pass rush. KC’s offensive line has had its issues, especially with RT Jawaan Taylor. I expect Mahomes to be on the go on Monday night. I like playing the rush attempts so we get the potential benefit of kneel downs and QB sneaks.

Justin Herbert rushed for 32 yards on the KC defense this year, Jalen Hurts 15, Russell Wilson 27 and Lamar Jackson 48. Trevor Lawrence has only topped this once so far, but our model has him at 3.7 carries for 14 yards and our AI has the ex-No. 1 pick at 14.8 yards. He has two 10-yard runs this season but actually finished under 10 yards rushing one of those games.

Chiefs WR1 Xavier Worthy looks set to return, but I still like Brown to get involved enough to surpass this total. ‘Hollywood’ Brown is averaging 9.5 yards per reception, and connected for a ridiculous 10 receptions on 16 targets in Week 1 against the Chargers in Primetime. Mahomes has targeted Brown 5+ times in each game thus far, and only barely missed this receiving yards total while also scoring a TD last week in a blowout win over Baltimore. Picking KC receiver props can sometimes be a crap shoot, so I’ll ride with Brown who currently leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

Kansas City destroyed Baltimore in Week 4 and is going for its third straight win, but I'm not ready to say the Chiefs are back to elite form. Look what Houston did to the depleted Ravens on Sunday. Travon Walker (13 pressures, two sacks) has a chance to play despite underdoing a wrist procedure, but even if he doesn't, I like the Jags to keep it close. The Chiefs are vulnerable against the run -- they allow the fourth-most yards before contact -- in part because they play so much two-high safeties (68.1 percent). Look for another strong game from Travis Etienne and a game that goes down to the wire.

FanDuel. While the Jaguars wide receiver room has been in a constant state of disarray, the most consistent presence of Jacksonville’s pass catchers has surprisingly been tight-end Brenton Strange. In his first full year as a starter, Strange leads the Jags in catches and receiving yards, while remaining on the field for an elite 81% of offensive snaps. The Chiefs defense under Steve Spagnuolo has traditionally funneled targets away from the perimeter playmakers, with the middle of the field open for opposing tight ends. Kansas City runs a two-high coverage at the league’s second highest rate (per Fantasy Points). And with the Chiefs strong against the run, I like Strange to produce on Monday night.

Travis Etienne is averaging 6.1 yards per carry behind a much-improved Jaguars' offensive line. He has gotten at least 14 carries in every game. The Chiefs play the second-highest rate of two-high safeties (68.1 percent), which leaves them vulnerable to the run. K.C. is allowing 4.9 yards per carry, which is sixth-worst.

Xavier Worthy is set to be the focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack. He turned 8 targets last week into 5/83 and posted a very healthy 26% First Read Targets/Route combined with a sterling 2.68 Yards Per Target. He will face what has been a stout Jags defense that has performed very well, but I suspect they might be a paper tiger, while teams are opting to throw frequently in neutral gamescripts indicating they may not be as good as the numbers indicate.

We are not worthy, as the Wayne’s World comedy duo once chanted, but the Chiefs have Worthy back. That makes a world of difference to their offense. Back from injury rehab, Xavier Worthy led K.C. in receiving and rushing yards as the sleepy offense awakened Sunday against Baltimore. Jacksonville relies on turnovers with a league-best 14, but K.C. is tied for the fewest giveaways as Patrick Mahomes has been picked just once. The Chiefs almost qualify as regular programming on Monday Night Football — and they welcome it, with eight straight-up wins in the last 10 appearances, mostly against stout competition. As a bonus, they have covered in all but one of the past five games as favorites.

Mahomes isn’t getting much help from his offensive line, facing early pressure and the fourth most hits in the NFL. As a result, he’s being flushed out of the pocket more than anyone – leading the league in scrambles and leading his team in rushing yards. That script shouldn’t change against a Jaguars front that ranks fifth in pressures. Expect him to keep using his legs to avoid the heat and cash this line, like he has in every game this season outside of last week’s blowout against the Ravens (where he missed by the hook.)

Let's not get too excited about the Kansas City Chiefs because they beat Baltimore last week but it looks like that is exactly what the market has done, installing them as a road favorite of more than a field goal. I made the number 2.5, so I believe getting better than 3 is a very good deal. I would not be surprised at all if Jacksonville wins outright. It has been a very profitable situation over the years to go against a road favorite after they won outright as a home underdog the week before. The market inflates this team too much and we get line value with the home dog. Go Jaguars.

The Chiefs offense looked back in vintage form against the Ravens, but Baltimore was missing seven defensive starters by the end of the game as injuries became a major issue. The Jags may be without Travon Walker but are much healthier overall on defense, and the unit has played particularly well at home while ranking second overall in EPA per play on the year. I'm not ready to make the Chiefs 3.5-point road faves against a team that's played well, so I see value taking the hook.