There's huge implications for this game, with the winner clinching the AFC North. With Lamar Jackson set to play, it opens up more opportunity for Henry as the Steelers defense will have to worry about QB1 and the passing game. With no DK Metcalf and no Darnell Washington, I see the Ravens building a nice lead here, so game script should bode well. Henry is coming off a 36 carry game against the Packers and had 19+ carries in all but two of the last 7 wins -- one missing by the hook. Henry also thrives later in the season -- averaging the most rush yards per game (103.8) in December and beyond in NFL history. The Steelers allow an average of 22+ carries/game.
This number is as high as 224.5 at some shops, for good reason. The Colts are allowing the 2nd most attempts, completions and yards -- over 266 a game. Game script wise, he may not need a high volume of passes but he can still get there, especially with a few explosive plays. Not only are the Colts over 7 yards per attempt, they're also allowing the 5th most 20+ yard attempts and completions. He has cashed in all but three of the last 10, averaging 227 in that stretch. He should cash again here.
George Kittle has only played 9 games but is still 2nd on the team in catches. When he is healthy, the volume is there. He has seen 24 targets over the last three games and is now facing a Colts squad that is bottom ten in DVOA against the tight end and has allowed an average of 6 catches and 66 yards a game to the position. They're allowing the 4th most targets and 5th most yards. Plus, Ricky Pearsall is banged up which could give us a boost in volume as well. Brock Purdy back under center has been huge as well for Kittle -- he's seen an average of 2 more targets and 25 more yards with QB1.
We're seeing this up to 242.5 at some shops, so great value at this book. He's cashed this in all but two of the last 10 and he's now facing a Ravens defense allowing the 5th most attempts and over 245 yards a game. We should get either a close game or negative game script to help us get over. Last week was only Maye's second game all season dipping 60% or less on completion percentage. He still leads the league in that category as well as being 2nd in yards per attempt. Plus, he's 3-0 straight up and ATS in career primetime games. I like a bounce back for the Pats MVP and possibly the league's, if he can catch back up to Stafford.
I gave this out earlier this week on our shows at 25.5 but I'd still play it here. Houston has been a different team at home -- one of the best cover rates in the NFL, averaging over 26 points a game. That's impressive when considering the teams they have faced -- Bills, Jags, Broncos, and the 49ers. Now they're facing a struggling Raiders defense and team that is 2-5 ATS on the road, giving up an average of 28 points a game. If the Texans cover the 14.5 point spread, they should put up at least 27 points in the process.
"If it ain't broke .. don't fix it." We have cashed this in all but one week this season. He's had 40+ in six straight weeks -- 40, 44, 40 , 49, 57, 44. The one week he didn't cash, he still finished with 31 in a big win over Dallas. The Falcons are decent at limiting volume but still allow about 30 a game and game script should bode well with a decent back and forth. Plus, they're just 2-5 at home and 1-4 ATS as a home underdog, so we could even get some negative game script here and cash once again. We're seeing it bet up to 37.5 at a lot of shops, so grab it here while you can.
The Bengals defense has been torched by running backs -- allowing ~160 rush yards/game and over 5 yards/carry (third most). They also rank 31st in yards before contact. On top of that, they're giving up the third most receiving yards to running backs (45+). With Quinn Ewers under center, Achane should see decent volume on the ground but especially in check down situations. Even if we don't get a crazy volume of carries, he can still pick up the yardage. He put up 60 rush yards in the loss on Monday with only 12 carries. He had 92 the week before on just 7 carries. He's cashed this line easily with rush yards alone 4 times this season, averaging almost 6 yards a carry.
The Eagles defense limited him in Week 1 but that was his worst game of the season and also his first game with this offense. Since then, he's put on a career year, 2nd in the league in receiving yards. The Eagles defense does rank 2nd best in DVOA vs. the #1 WR but luckily, Ceedee Lamb is back and will certainly help to stretch the defense. Pickens is putting up #1 WR numbers, but we can feel better about calling him a #2 when you consider the Eagles are allowing the 5th most targets a game to the #2 WR. He's averaging 90+ yards a game, leading the team in deep targets and has cashed this line in all but two of 10 games.
Drake Maye has cashed this over in all but one of the last seven games and all but three of 11 this season. He's averaging just under 258 and is now facing a historically bad Bengals defense allowing the 2nd most attempts and the 4th most yards (264+). Joe Burrow possibly being under center for the Bengals helps us even more, game script-wise. Even with the blowout wins and the wins where he played a bit sloppy, Maye has cashed this.
The Bears are at home with momentum, coming off three straight wins. Caleb Williams had one of his worst games last week against the Vikings and they still pulled out the win. The defense kept Minnesota out of the end zone until the fourth quarter and they should have success again this week. They're either facing a 41-year old QB with a fractured wrist or Mason Rudolph. On defense, the Steelers have key players banged up -- CB Darius Slay is out, LB Alex Highsmith is doubtful and DT Cam Heyward is questionable. The Steelers are one of the least profitable teams on the road (1-3 ATS.) The Bears should win this and go 4-1 at home.
The Jets were already allowing the 6th most RB rush attempts a game (24+) and now are without the best run defender in the NFL in Quinnen Williams. He had the best run grade at his position and was in the 99th percentile in run stop rate. Without him, the Jets will take on Derrick Henry who is averaging 20+ attempts over the last 5 weeks, cashing 18 or more attempts in each week. Plus, they're 13.5 point favorites ... so there should be plenty of volume game-script wise.
The Bulls are on the second night of a back to back after a double overtime loss in Utah. They're now playing in the elevation of Denver on the fifth road game in a 6 game stretch. They will be without their top scorer in Coby White (calf) against a Denver defense that is one of the best in the NBA, allowing the third fewest points. They're also playing at a bottom 7 pace -- they should control the tempo, slow down the game and help us cash this Bulls TT under.
The Seahawks rank among the worst in EPA per play against tight ends by a wide margin, allowing the most catches (7.11) and third most targets (9.33). Tight ends have had 3 or more catches in 9 of 10 weeks against Seattle and now the team faced a Rams offense that has the third most tight end usage over the last four weeks. They have the highest tight end target share over the last three games with 40 targets. Plus, Higbee has been consistent -- catching over 75% of his targets the last four games. He has cashed this line in four straight and should cash again here in a back-and-forth game script.
When the Chargers offense is clicking, it's hard to stop them. They outscored the Vikings, Titans, Steelers 89-40 over the last three weeks and should have no problem continuing that dominance this week. This Jags defense just let Davis Mills put up 36 points after the Raiders put up 29 on them following trading away their top receiver. The Jags are allowing the fifth highest redzone scoring percentage and the 2nd most passing touchdowns a game. Herbert has his full arsenal of weapons healthy and should tear up this secondary, leading the squad to their sixth straight 23+ point game.
These two teams score among the fewest points in the league and we should see that continue here. The Saints were able to hold Bryce Young in check last week -- 124 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. The Falcons should have no problem doing the same, if not better. They are allowing the fewest passing yards a game and have one of the highest pressure rates on opposing QBs. As for the Falcons offense -- they haven't scored more than 25 points in 5 straight weeks and only once all season. I don't see where the points come from here, under is the play.