Dallas leads the NFL in total offense and passing yards. The Jets are third in rushing and have progressed offensively over the last two weeks with over 20 points per game in each. The Cowboys’ defense ranks dead last in yards allowed while also giving up more than 33 points per game. Both defenses have shown they struggled limiting the big play and getting consistent stops.

Wilson is over this line in 3/4 games this season already. He has seen 8+ targets in each game, and is developing an efficient rapport with Justin Fields (27 receptions on 38 targets). Wilson has a 15+ yard catch in all 4 games this season as well, and now faces a Cowboys secondary that is straight up junior varsity level. Wilson should be a problem for Bland, Diggs, or whichever Dallas DB has to guard him.

This Cowboys defense could end up being historically bad. Their secondary ranks dead last in just about every pass defense category. Dallas is coming off an emotional overtime game against the Packers, in which their defense was out on the field for a ton of time. I expect Fields to carve them up however he chooses. Fields is over this pass + rush yards total in the 2/3 games he played in full this season. Dallas' identity is all offense, so we'll be in good shape for this prop if the game turns into a shootout. I expect Fields and the 0-4 Jets to have a nice game today.

Cowboys backers are justifiably exasperated with the erratic nature of their team, but there is one semi-constant with Dallas well as the host Jets. It's the totals trends both ways which point to clearing 47.5; for the Cowboys, they're 6-1 over their last seven on the road. For the Jets, they've been consistently landing over since later last season, now on a 9-2 "over" run dating to last November. Dallas has been a bit up-and-down but the Cowboys have hit 40 points in two of their four games as Dak Prescott posts explosive numbers. As for the Jets, they finally seemed to get things moving late last week at Miami, though the rally fell short 27-21. Play Cowboys-Jets Over

Jake Ferguson has the 2nd most receptions in the NFL through four weeks (34). With CeeDee Lamb still sidelined, I expect Ferguson to still be peppered with targets (23.4% target share this season). Since the Cowboys have given up the 2nd most points this season, I expect Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will need to keep throwing. Since Lamb has been sidelined, Ferguson has had seven or more receptions in the last three games, and I expect that to continue Sunday.

Amid all of the turmoil in Dallas, Dak Prescott can still play. He would figure to slice and dice a foe that has yielded at least 25 ppg and has not managed one takeaway. However, the Cowboys will be minus three O-linemen -- OT Tyler Guyton, OG Tyler Booker and C Cooper Beebe -- for certain. Worse, Pro Bowl G Tyler Smith is questionable. (Tough week to be named Tyler.) While New York is winless SU, three of its four setbacks have come by two, two and six points. The Jets are due and should take full advantage of Dallas' makeshift line.

We've got a massive total, a team that loves to feed its bellcow down by the goal line, Williams continuing to find the end zone and a rookie in Jayden Blue who developed blisters by wearing designer Nikes on Friday. The Jets defense isn't good and the Cowboys will be forced to score because theirs is worse and Wiliams is a very good look to find the end zone once (or twice). His red zone rushing statistics are on par with the bellcow/superstar backs in this league so far this year.

The Jets are winless and they've yet to create a turnover through four games. At some point they'll get one (maybe two), but even if it doesn't happen Sunday, I love this matchup for the Jets' offense. Dallas' bottom-5 defense just played an overtime game and has to travel to face Aaron Glenn's desperate Jets. The Jets' much-maligned defense has a shot here due to Dallas' multiple offensive line injuries.

Already on the Jets Over 22.5 points and now Breece Hall should be really busy with co-No. 1 Braelon Allen out 8-12 weeks -- Hall owners just hit the potential fantasy jackpot. Although I forgot he plays on the Jets. Hall isn't a huge goal-line guy but probably will be now and is certainly a threat to score as a pass-catcher. Way overdue without a TD yet.

Garrett Wilson is having an excellent season and profiles as one of the true alpha WR1s in the NFL. Wilson hasn’t missed a single route this season and now gets a dreadful Cowboys pass defense that is 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 32nd in DVOA, and 31st in 1st Read EPA. Wilson commands a massive 36% target share and is the clear engine of the Jets passing attack. Wilson has also been extremely efficient and this is a matchup where the Jets should be pushed and Wilson is likely to benefit from elite usage.

With a 230 yard projection we're expecting Fields to hit this sometime in the 3rd quarter. Considering Dallas is giving up 309 yards a game I don't think it's unreasonable for Fields, who has 218 and 226 yards in his two full games this season to hit this total. This line is based on his Pittsburgh average as a starter (184). But the Steelers were run first with only an unhappy George PIckens to throw to last season. The Jets have been in shootouts and Fields should eclipse this total vs. the weak Dallas defense.

DraftKings. Despite the lean passing offense of the Jets, Garrett Wilson has produced in the passing game. Wilson has cleared this line in three of four games, leading the Jets in targets, receptions, yards, air yards, and pretty much every receiving metric. This also includes his 47% first read rate, which leads the entire NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). The matchup against the Cowboys is elite - Dallas has allowed the second most receiving yards per game to opposing first reads (197), on a ridiculous 2.95 yards per route run. It’s a smash spot for Wilson, who I have projected close to 80 yards. I’d comfortably bet this to over 67.5 receiving yards.

Dallas has allowed at least 24 points in all four games and at least 31 in the past three. Really all this play is when it comes to the sorry Jets. I watched most of Monday's game in Miami and they moved the ball well but then either fumbled or committed a stupid penalty. But I think they can certainly score 23 at home on this Dallas defense. Our model has Gang Green with 25 points.

Dallas owns the NFL's worst third-down defense, is leaking 33.0 PPG, and will be without CeeDee Lamb and starting safety Malik Hooker. New York's run-heavy attack, mobile QB Justin Fields, and a top-10 situational defense create the exact profile that buries the Cowboys' roster-depleted unit. The Jets have a sneaky good defense as they rank 11th in the NFL in quarterback pressure rate through Week 5. New York ranks in the top 12 for third-down and red-zone defensive stops, and their offense matches up well against the Cowboys' defense. Breece Hall and Justin Fields will likely take advantage of Dallas' weak edges and light boxes, which will help control the clock and keep Dak Prescott and the Cowboys on the sidelines.

The Cowboys offense eventually came alive against the Packers, but I'm not sure how sustainable it'll be. They have a great matchup here against a Jets defense that has looked awful, but no defense has looked as bad as the one in Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed 6.4 yards per play this year, and while the Jets offense didn't look its best on Monday, it still ended with 7.1 yards per play while overcoming three fumbles to keep the final score close. This is a good spot for New York to get its first win against a team the market is boosting for questionable reasons, and I love the value on the 3.