Getting the full field goal would have made the Buccaneers attractive, but the Texans are the side to play. Both lost key players in Week 1, but only Houston gets the benefit of moving on not only at home but against a weaker defense. CJ Stroud should have way more time in the pocket to move the ball down the field, whereas Baker Mayfield will have to contend with another difficult pass rush. Tampa Bay barely pulled off its win over Atlanta, which needed to be gifted a win by Minnesota. The Bucs are missing weapons and appeared to struggle without Liam Coen calling plays. Meanwhile, the Texans OL should at least be improved a week later with the team motivated to rebound at home.

Tampa Bay was lucky to get past the Falcons last week. Houston’s defense is much better than the Falcons who gave this Liam Coen-less Bucs a scare. The Texans pass rush should be able to make Mayfield uncomfortable especially since they’re missing Tristan Wirfs. Tampa Bay is also 1-5 SU against the Texans all time.

The Texans have a very solid defense and home field advantage here, but Tampa Bay has one of the most slept on offenses in the NFC. Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka are rising stars, while Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are crafty veterans. Tristan Wirfs is out for the Bucs, but I still expect them to have some success on MNF. Getting the prop at +100 is a nice value.

There are more than a few who believe, for the moment at least, that the Texans have plateaued, regardless of the fact they won a playoff game vs. the bumbling Chargers last January. CJ Stroud is coming off of a bit of a sophomore slump, and key attack-end cogs like Joe Mixon and Tank Dell remain out. They were missed in last week's 14-9 loss to the Rams. Meanwhile, the Bucs continue to punch above their weight, the brave opening win at Atlanta looking even a bit better in retrospect after the Falcons' impressive win at Minnesota on Sunday night, and clutch QB Baker Mayfield off of 3 TD passes in opener when Tampa Bay once again fought back. Play Bucs on ML

Tampa should feel extremely fortunate traveling to Houston tonight with a 1-0 record. Tampa gained 260 yards in the win (4.6 YPP) and finished -98 in net yardage. Enter a Texans defense that's among the league's best tasked with slowing down a Bucs passing attack that will still be without their best OL in Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin. Emeka Egbuka made a splash in his debut however he draws a tougher assignment tonight. Houston at home is a tough nut to crack and with limited weapons I project the Bucs offensive ceiling close to 17.

In week one Baker Mayfield had a memorable fourth quarter finish to lift his team late past the Atlanta Falcons. While most teams addressed their kicker issues, Tampa Bay did not as Chase McLaughlin missed an extra point and field goal in week one. Facing Atlanta has also led to problems each of the last three years where they followed up with an 0-3 stretch in 2022, and each of the prior two seasons 1-4 stretches after the first matchup against Atlanta. Take the Texans to bounce back on the small number.

I was tentative to pull the trigger on Houston at first, but I feel they have a clear edge at home in this game. Tampa Bay were fortunate to win their season opener against Atlanta, surviving four “turnover worthy plays” from QB Baker Mayfield, and a Falcons missed field goal to force overtime. The Bucs mustered up just 159 total passing yards in that game, and now face an even tougher Houston defense on the road. Tampa Bay are clearly going to miss Liam Coen’s play calling this season, and have their work cut out for them early on with a banged up O-line and WR room. Look for Texans DE’s Will Anderson & Danielle Hunter to wreak havoc all night.

Houston were strong starters last season, going 13-4 ATS in the first half for the best 1H cover rate in the league. In the second half? Flip it… 4-13 ATS, worst in the NFL. This year’s Texans failed to score a TD in Week 1, and are clearly still working out the kinks on offense. They’ll need to lean on their defense and vaunted pass rush, which could cause issues for Bucs QB Baker Mayfield tonight, who will be without LT Tristan Wirfs and possibly RT Luke Goedke. If the Bucs offensive line is compromised, they will start slow on the road. I’d rather take the Texans 1H ML at -135 instead of the full game ML at a similar price, considering Houston’s 2H struggles.

Mike Evans was focal point for Baker Mayfield in Week 1 and I expect that to once again be the case again on Monday Night vs the Texans. This week Mayfield will face a Texans defense that has an elite pass rush and thus Mayfield is likely going to have to rely on quick passing. We can expect Mike Evans to be involved as he had a 33% TPRR last week after finishing last season with 28% mark on quick passes in 2024. The Texans secondary did not impress last week and I expect Evans to operate as the clear No. 1 WR in a game that could be a shootout or feature increased passing volume.

C.J. Stroud was under a lot of pressure in Week 1, and he finished with 19 completions, no touchdowns and an interception. This is a better matchup for him against the Bucs' pass-funnel defense. Tampa Bay excels against the run and held Bijan Robinson to 2.0 yards per carry in Week 1, but allowed Michael Penix to go 27 of 42. This number has moved to 21.5 at multiple books; it would be a smaller play for me at that number.

Baker Mayfield tied for the NFL lead with 16 picks last season and was lucky not to have at least one in Week 1 vs. Atlanta. Baker is going to force some throws, that's just who he is. Houston might have the best secondary in the NFL and was second with 19 picks in 2024.

I think we are looking at relatively conservative gameplans from both teams early in this one. In Week 1 both offenses struggled at times and now new offensive coordinators (Grizzard and Caley) now need to scheme for stout defenses. I think this leads to very conservative calls early as each team leans on their defense to create potential turnovers and/or short fields. I like the full game under as well, but if there is a trailing game script late, we could see a team open things up a bit.

The Texans are far too talented to continue playing like they did in Week 1 on the offensive side of the ball, so I expect them to be better here. That said, I expect the Texans to have some issues slowing down the Bucs' passing attack. In his last 10 primetime games, Tampa QB Baker Mayfield has recorded a passer rating of 109.8 with 2,463 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Rookie Emeka Egbuka looks like a rising star, and Mike Evans is a future Hall of Famer. I'm taking the points here.

The Texans came out stale in Week 1 at the Los Angeles Rams with only three first-half field goals by Ka'imi Fairbairn. No points scored in the second half. There was no fight in the Texans except for newcomer Nick Chubb at running back, who had 60 yards. There were no deep passes thrown to Nico Collins. Eight different receivers caught the ball, but none for more than 32 yards, and CJ Stroud also had an interception. The Texans didn't look like a team that played two playoff games each of the last two seasons. But the positive note is this week they’re at home against Tampa Bay, and Houston knows what they did wrong in the first game. Houston to win, cheap price, moneyline.

This line is definitely steaming down so move right away as it's at 48.5 on Caesars. We are actually projecting him for 14.5 carries which is the same or slightly higher than his betting value so to still only project 44 yards means we really are fading Nick Chubb. He had a decent stat line with 60 yards on 13 carries in Week 1, but I felt confident this was not the Nick Chubb of old. This is the old Nick Chubb.

In Week 1 Emeka Egbuka was the "touchdown hog" getting 2 TDs in his rookie debut. While his presence could cut into Mike Evans' TD target share I think in this case it will be offset by the defensive attention Egbuka is getting in Houston's defensive film study room as we speak. Evans always has the defensive spotlight in the red zone but now he'll share it with Egbuka and a single covered Evans is project to have a near 50% chance of catching a TD vs a line that implies closer to a 40% chance.

Baker Mayfield crushed this last season going 13-5 over 1.5 passing touchdowns and of course had 3 last week. I'm frankly shocked that we're getting +$$$ on this. I know Houston has a very good defense that allowed the 6th fewest passing yards in the league last season (just 201 per game) but they did allow 31 passing touchdowns which was the 3rd most in the league. Act on it immediately because there's a good chance that the line will move to -110 or more by the time the game starts.

Baker Mayfield tied for 2nd in passing touchdowns in 2024 and tied for the lead in passing interceptions. He did not have an INT in Week 1 vs Atlanta so you do get the 'he's due' factor in this case. Interceptions down the field are an acceptable part of the Bucs' offense because the upside of 40+ passing TDs more than offsets 1 or even 2 'arm punts' on 3rd down or 2nd and long. Over the course of his career he does average >10% more interceptions on the road than at home. He was 10-8 over 0.5 an INT in 2024 but more importantly he ended the season throwing at least one in 4 of his final 5 regular season games.

Tampa Bay did me right in week 1 covering a -1.5 spread on the road despite pedestrian yardage numbers. Houston has only looked like an NFL offense once in their last 7 games. Other than a 32 point game in the playoffs vs the Chargers they have put up 20 vs Miami, 19 vs the Chiefs, 2 vs Baltimore, 23 vs the worst team in the league Tennessee, 14 vs Kansas City and 9 in week 1 vs the Rams. Tampa Bay on the other hand has averaged +3.5 more points on the road than at home in '23-24 combined.

Houston failed to score a touchdown and lost its starting center in the 14-9 loss at the Rams. But this is a much more manageable matchup with a Bucs team that was extremely fortunate to beat Atlanta. Tampa Bay gave up 191 yards after the catch, so Nico Collins should bounce back with a monster performance. Baker Mayfield had four turnover-worthy plays, but zero turnovers. The Texans' elite defense won't miss those opportunities the way the Falcons did. Mayfield also has lost his last seven Monday night games.

This line was Texans -1.5 on the lookahead, but I guess the market was impressed by what they saw from the Texans as there are soft 2.5s and even a Texans -3 now. I don't get it. The Houston offense could not finish drives as the O-line showed itself as a major Achilles heel. The Texans defense couldn't really slow down the Rams passing game despite the limited scoring, and the Bucs appear to have a star in the making in Emeka Egbuka to take some of the burden off Mike Evans. I think this should be pick 'em at best and it's a two-unit play for me.