The Broncos have impressed with their defense stout and offensive improving at the right time. However, they have one win against teams that made or just missed the playoffs (playing starters, the Bucs in Week 3); 0-7 otherwise with six losses by 6+ points. Bo Nix is a rookie starting his first playoff game on the road in cold weather. The Bills and Josh Allen have failed to live up to postseason expectations, but they’ve authored big-time wild card wins. With the line falling into a palatable range, Buffalo’s defense getting healthy, its offense rested and Allen on a mission, I’ll play despite originally planning to pass. Bills need to overcome early pass rush pressure and protect Allen in the second half to thrive.

Cook finished the season tied for the lead league in rushing touchdowns (16) and finished with 18 total. He scored in 13/17 games this season. That’s 76.4% of the time. We are getting a Cook anytime TD price of -120, which has an implied probability of 54.55%. Denver only allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this year, but Buffalo’s offense ranked #2 in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD inside the 20 at a 71.64% clip. Cook will have his opportunities to cash in like he has all year. If the Bills are playing with the lead in a positive game script, I like this even more. When defenses load up the box against Josh Allen, Cook beats them to the edge.

It is no secret that Josh Allen likes to use his legs in big games. This Broncos defensive front got excellent pressure all season long, behind DT Zach Allen who ranked top 10 in total QB pressures (the first top-10 DT in that category since Aaron Donald in 2021). If Denver is collapsing the pocket with middle pressure, Allen will roll outside and take off. I even expect to see some designed runs. If Broncos top-tier CB’s Patrick Surtain & Riley Moss are blanketing Bills receivers, Allen will take matters into his own hands (legs?). Allen averages over 56 rush yards per game in the playoffs.

Buffalo has been outstanding this year and had the luxury of resting players down the stretch with the division sealed up since early December. This however is a big number against a Broncos team that wants to generate pressure on defense while using a short controlled passing game on offense. Buffalo has been among the league's worst in 3rd down defense; not a great recipe for a Sean Payton offense. I don't get north of 7 on this game like the market indicates so I'm happy to back the road dog in the current range

This could be a blowout so perhaps Josh Allen (only six INTs all season) won't be passing much. He has absurd Wild-Card numbers in his career with just one pick. As long as Allen avoids Patrick Surtain's side of the field, I think we are OK barring some Hail Mary-type pick at the end of a half or a tipped ball, etc.

Bills running back Ty Johnson has drawn at least one target in 10 of the past 11 games. His biggest games came against man-heavy defenses like the Broncos. With Denver boasting two excellent outside corners, look for Josh Allen to target Johnson at least twice.

Before dismissing the Broncos, keep in mind they won a game at Buffalo last November (thanks to a last-second Will Lutz field goal) in a game with Russell Wilson at QB. The Bills had more trouble than realized in recent weeks, though the masses mostly recall the win at Detroit. But Buffalo also lost to the Rams and had a narrow escape vs. lowly New England, plus another loss to the Pats when admittedly resting starters. The Broncos will have to keep Josh Allen in the pocket, but now-healthy CBs Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss give Denver a chance to stick on Bills wideouts. Bo Nix is also executing everything as Sean Payton dictates. Is an upset in the air? Play Broncos

As each game gets more impactful, we know that Josh Allen tends to run more. During Allen's last seven games, he rushed for 45.7 yards per game. Allen averages 53 rushing yards per game in the month of January over his career. I like to bet on rushing quarterbacks or athletic quarterbacks rushing props in the NFL Playoffs. When the game is on the line, they'll take off and run. When the games get colder and more meaningful, I love to bet on Allen's rushing prop. I think he'll soar over this line Sunday.

It's going to be 31° in Buffalo with 5 mph wind in a 6% chance of precipitation and it's playoffs in Buffalo who is 8-0 at home. But I think there's going to be some points scored in this game. The Broncos were 11-6 to the over the season and Buffalo was 11-5-1 to the over. Denver has gone over five of their last six games including their last two road games at Cincinnati and the Chargers where they lost but played well. Despite having a No. 7 defense that allows 317 yards per game, Buffalo will score on them. Denver's going to score on Buffalo. Over is the best play.

FanDuel. In his first playoff game, Bo Nix faces a tough task against the Bills defense. The Bills look to keep everything in front of them - they allowed the third lowest aDOT this season (6.8 yards) which combined with their stout run defense, lead to opposing QBs completing the fourth most passes per game (23.3). Per FTN, they also had the third worst DVOA against short passes. This plays into Bo Nix’s hand, as he has embraced the short passing game down the stretch. Since week 14, Nix’s 5.7 aDOT is the lowest amongst qualified QBs. Tack on a gamescript that should lend to Denver having to play catch-up, and I love this over.

Nix has been over this prop line in each of his past three and in 5 of his past 7. Buffalo has seen at least 22 completions in each of its past eight games that weren't played in snow storms with 23-plus completions in 6 of those 8. The Bills play a lot of zone coverage and really only move to man-to-man coverage when they're in danger of losing. They also don't blitz very much nor rack up tons of sacks. But they do pressure quickly which Nix's quick trigger can neutralize. In that environment, Nix has completed 68.8% of his passes on a low ADOT in his past four, and that completion rate has actually been high in his past eight games.

This is a correlated play with Marvin Mims' receiving yardage total. He continues to make at least one big 30+ play for the Broncos as we've seen in 6 of their last 7 games. Expect him to take advantage of the Buffalo secondary and continue the longest reception over trend.

Marvin Mims had a nice late-season breakout for the Broncos, surpassing 40 yards in 6 of his last 7 games. The key to each of those performances is that he had at least a 32-yard reception in each of those games. With Denver likely to be trailing, look for Mims to get at least the five targets he's averaged of late including 1-2 deep shots to keep the over receiving yards trend rolling.

Marvin Mims Jr. leads the Broncos in receiving yards over the past five games (341), and he also received 12 carries in the second half of the season. Sean Payton is looking for ways to get Mims the ball, whether on bubble screens, flaring him out of the backfield or lining him up in the slot. In a potentially negative game script, look for Mims to record at least 45 combined rushing and receiving yards.

Was hopping this might get to 10 but starting to go in the other direction so I'll take high-water mark here. Josh Allen is 3-7 ATS in playoffs, failing to cover by over a FG/G. Bills D is leaky, 21st in yard/play, only 17th in RZ, 29th on 3rd down and 22nd in sack rate. Broncos have elite OL and have scored 24+ 7 straight games. They can keep this close enough and Sean Payton knows how to navigate a playoff game. BUF only 2-3 ATS vs playoff teams this season. DEN 11-5-1 ATS overall and 5-3-1 on road.

Although rookie quarterbacks typically don't fare well in their playoff debuts, I like the Broncos to keep this competitive before ultimately falling short. They rank No. 1 in pass efficiency defense and No. 4 in rush efficiency defense. They have found an explosive playmaker in Marvin Mims. Sean Payton's team has scored 24 or more in seven straight. Being a big underdog, look for Payton to pull off a couple daring calls to keep his team in the game.

Bo Nix has a tough task at hand going on the road to face one of the best teams in the league in his playoff debuts, and I expect to see him use his legs a bunch. In the eight games he failed to reach 25 rushing yards this year, the Broncos won by double digits six times. This doesn't figure to follow that script, and with established QBs running more in the postseason, we should expect Nix to follow that pattern after averaging 25.3 yards per game in the regular season.

Josh Allen has a tough defensive matchup in the first round against the Broncos, and that should make him a willing runner in order to extend drives. While he's averaged 37.3 rush yards per game in regular season in his career, that's up to 56.3 yards per game in the playoffs, with Allen getting to 54 yards in seven of his 10 games. While only one QB has topped 40 rushing yards against the Broncos all season, the spot makes sense to back Allen in the playoffs at this number.

Denver has a solid defense but its slumped some down the stretch. Buffalo has a good enough pass protecting OL to withstand their rush but I don't see the Bills having as much joy on the ground as they would like. If this game is as high-scoring as I expect, Allen will be taking shots into the endzone. Denver has an elite RZ but gave up way too many big plays down the stretch. Allen will be throwing into the endzone from 30-plus yards out. He's hit this in 4 of his last 5 full games and 5 of the last 7 in the postseason.

Don't look for Sean Payton to change anything here. He has Nix throw all over the field to get them to the playoffs and he's training him for the long term. Of course we're going to ride this to the postseason. Its hit in 7 of games and 8 of 10. He has 12 passing TDs in the last 4 games. Broncos run game is stale and Nix can cash this inside and outside the RZ. Bills D sputtered down the stretch and allowed this to hit in 6 of the last 8 games. Nix hasn't flinched yet and has been strong on the road. Playoffs are different, but so is this coach and QB.

A year ago the Bills rode Allen as the drive finisher in the playoffs. He has a rushing TD in 3 straight playoff games and I expect this to continue here. The element of physicality he provides is just different and the Denver run defense is very stout and going the designed run way with James Cook might not make as much sense, either. He cashed this in 6 of the last 8 weeks and there's always a chance he catches one or gets a hook and lateral. He has 9 rushing TDs in the last 8 games and he has 17 rushing TDs in his last 17 Dec/Jan games. Stakes are up. Must win game. I'll sprinkle on first TD, too.

This is already up a point. Sean Payton wants his rookie QB to learn and grow and will keep chucking the ball all over the place here. DEN scored 27+ in 6 of last 7 games and BUF D is leaky. Bo Nix has a 105.7 rating since Week 8 (24 TD/7 INT). Josh Allen is over in 7 of 10 playoff games (average 51 PPG). BUF over in 8 of last 11 games. Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of last 5 games. DEN elite run D could lead to pass-happy approach. BUF 6-2 over at home (52 PPG) and DEN 6-3 over on road. Broncos young WRs are breaking out. As long as weather doesn't go crazy I think both teams score 24.