The Texans offense has been searching for answers for the past month. Since wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Tank Dell went down with injuries, Houston has looked pretty pedestrian. While I don’t think newly acquired veteran WR Diontae Johnson will magically solve their problems, I do think he could play a role in this game. Texans head coach Demeco Ryans had high praise for Johnson after his Week 18 debut. Although he only had 2 receptions for 12 yards on 4 targets, Ryans was happy with his integration and quick understanding of the offense. With limited options and in desperate need of a playmaker, I like C.J. Stroud to look Johnson’s way multiple times. One play can clear this line.

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.

It's a fact...the Texans have won a playoff game (last season, in fact) a lot more recently than have the Chargers. But a lot has changed since last January when Houston whipped Cleveland in this wild card round at NRG Stadium. The Bolts are now coached by Jim Harbaugh, who quickly flipped the culture and turned Justin Herbert (only 3 picks this season) into a more careful QB. Meanwhile, the Texans dealt with injuries all season, especially to the WR corps down key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, impacting QB CJ Stroud, whose numbers (including 12 picks) took a big dip, tossing only 10 TD passes across the last 11 games. Houston didn't close fast, either (4-6 vs. line last ten). Play Chargers

Not sure I'd have taken the Chargers over the Texans at the midway point, but here we have a diminished Houston offense facing a surging Jim Harbaugh-coached team. The Chargers won three straight entering the postseason with a 9-2 ATS mark since Oct. 27; the Texans are 4-5 SU & ATS since Oct. 31. Justin Herbert is playing his best ball at the most important time. J.K. Dobbins is back healthy helping open the passing game. Conversely, C.J. Stroud has 9 TD and 8 INT over his last eight games with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both out. The Bolts being on the road for a third straight week deserves pause; it’s not enough to shy away from Herbert, this defense, Harbaugh and his staff.

When i look at these two teams there are a lot of similarities both in roster construction and head coaching tendencies. Both teams want to run the ball and play a physical brand of football while both QB's are more than capable of hanging crooked numbers. However weapons on both sides in the passing game are limited and there are plenty of OL concerns each way. I think this game starts slow and only opens up if a team has to chase the game after halftime. First half under for me in the early kick

McConkey's locked up at least 80 yards in each of his past three & 6 of his past 7. I suspect McConkey will stick in the slot at least 60% of his snaps, which he's done in 6 of his past 7 games with Quentin Johnston on the field with him. That should eliminate either of Houston's outside cornerbacks from covering him. The Texans play a lot of zone coverage and won't necessarily pressure Herbert a lot, which gives McConkey added time to get open with his crisp route skills. And because the Texans run defense has played well lately, Herbert will probably shoulder more work, which means more throwing and more targets for McConkey. I'm fine playing this up to 77.5.

Money is already pouring in on the Chargers, so I wouldn't be surprised if this line pushes as high as -3.5 or -4 by gameday. The Texans were a mess down the stretch, and will undoubtedly miss Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell here. Houston shocked the Cleveland Browns in a similar situation in last year's playoffs. I don't see a similar performance coming from DeMeco Ryans' team on Saturday.

The Texans' pass rush won't make this easy on Justin Herbert. But he's playing at such a high level, I believe he'll get the Chargers to 24 points and a cover. He's completing 74 percent of his throws against zone coverages, which Houston has played 73 percent of the time over the past seven games. He has a 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while C.J. Stroud, lacking a good offensive line, has turned it over 14 times. The Chargers have scored 108 points in the past three games and J.K. Dobbins' return has re-energized the play-action game.

I was a fade on the Texans going into the year and I'm going to be a fade on the Texans to close the year. It's a nice matchup for the Chargers as they shouldn't need to do much on offense to get this cover. With that said, Justin Herbert has excelled lately and he is equipped with a good offensive line, a healthy starting RB and at least one very talented receiver. The Texans offense has sputtered, thanks in part to a sophomore slump and some injuries and I don't expect them to move the ball against this solid Chargers defense.

Texans run game with Joe Mixon has dried up, the Texans OC is kinda fraudulent and cant make adjustments, they lack a screen game and Stroud has a 76.7 rating vs Cover-2 in his career (same as Gardner Minshew last 2 yrs) with a 0-6 TD/INT, worst in NFL. He has 8 INTs in 6 games vs winning teams this season. He has picks in 5 of his last 8 games with 8 totals INTS in that span. Chargers had 15 picks

The Chargers are so good and well-coached that they won 11 games and lost six but covered 12 games with the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL at 17.7 per game allowed. They're so good because they essentially play all their games on the road with no home-field advantage in many games. They went 6-3 in the away games. And they come in flying high for this game winning their last three games. The Chargers don't throw interceptions either with Justin Herbert only tossing three of them. Chargers to win.

The Chargers were No. 1 in the NFL in fewest points allowed at 17.7 per game point. This is a very conservative team, even though they've gone over the last four games, they want to control the game with their defense and slow the game down with their offense, and part of that is hanging on to the ball for long drives. They only had nine turnovers and three interceptions all year and the problem with the Texans is 19 turnovers aided by 12 interceptions. C.J. Stroud only had five interceptions last year. This will be Harbaugh football led by the defense, under is the play.

With Tank Dell hurt and the TEs tepid, expect routine safety help on Collins all the time. Derwin James can bang him around him in the slot. CJ Stroud will be under heavy pressure. Collins has hit this in just 2 of his last 8 games. It will take crazy volume to get to this I figure and Jesse Minter's zone scheme will keep things in front of the safeties and set out to eliminate the main thing in this pass attack. If you filter for garbage time - not expected in a close playoff game - only multi-faceted attacks had WRs for who over this number on the Chargers (Mike Evans, Drake London, Tee Higgins/Ja'Marr Chase) in the second half of the season.

He is the go-to guy in this passing attack. It's not even close. Darryl Stingley is a stud corner, but McConkey is getting off and has faced guys like Marlon Humphrey and AJ Terrell and Christian Gonzalez. And he is over this in 6 of his last 7 games and averaging 94 yards/G in that span. Kid has a knack for getting open and finding vacant spots in zone coverage, which the Texans play a lot of.

Herbert can grab big yards on the ground, and this is a game where designed runs could struggle. Mobile QBs - Anthony Richardson (twice), Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson - all went over this and each of them had a run of at least 15 yards in the process. Texans pass rush can get caught too far in the backfield and Herbert can scoot.

The Chargers run game is sputtering and HOU is very tough to rush on. Justin Herbert will make his money here and his tackles can protect him. He's 4th in passing yards since Week 8 and averaging 246/G in that span. Six of the last 8 opposing QBs are over this vs HOU (including the Titans twice!) and Herbert is over this in 7 of the last 9 Chargers victories. The scope of their passing game expanded as the season went on. This is why he makes $50M/year.

If you think Jim Harbaugh was close to the best in the regular season, wait till you see playoff Jimmy. Plus, I don’t trust Houston in the red zone. No mistakes will be the order of the day. Let’s go under.

The Texans are coming off mostly a week of rest for key players, and while the first string looked solid against the Titans, I'm still worried they'll turn into the unit that struggled mightily down the stretch when facing a solid Chargers defense as L.A. has held 13 of 17 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chargers can get dominated on the ground by good rushing offenses but Houston doesn't qualify there, so this will largely be about taking away Nico Collins and forcing Houston to find another way to score, and I don't see them finding three touchdowns that way.

Grab this total now above the key number of 43 on Fanduel. The Texans offense struggled mightily down the stretch of the season, and the O-line’s pass protection and run blocking is regressing badly. Teams now feel safe to stack the box against RB Joe Mixon. Chargers elite Safety Derwin James can limit explosive plays to Houston’s best weapon, WR Nico Collins. The Chargers identity this season has resembled an old school football team under Jim Harbaugh. Their run game, possession control and stout defense match up well against Houston. Demeco Ryans should have his #2 DVOA ranked defense raring to go, understanding that Houston’s success likely falls to them at this point. I see this being a 20-17 type of grinding affair.

The superior team in this matchup is indisputable. Los Angeles enters with a +101 points differential, which is 101 better than Houston’s. The Chargers yielded a league-low 301 points. Its offense is on fire, having averaged 36 ppg over the past three weeks. ATS? L.A. is 12-5, Houston around .500. The visitors have won three in a row and five of six outright. The Texans dropped their last two games that mattered, scoring a combined 21 points. Weather is no factor for the visitors from SoCal, with the stadium enclosed if necessary. Home-field advantage is negligible this season, with away teams winning at a 47 percent clip. This is L.A.’s third consecutive road game. However, last Sunday’s involved a quick hop to nearby Las Vegas.

LAC have covered 9 of their last 11, Justin Herbert is 12-4 ATS last 16 as road favorite and Jim Harbaugh is 20-7-1 ATS (including playoffs) in this spot. HOU just 3-5 ATS at home, rank 30th in NFL In second-half scoring, CJ Stroud has a 78,8 rating outside the lowly AFC South. Chargers have scored 108 points last 3 games and have elite OT who can handle the Texans edge rush. HOU doesn't get great inside push. Stroud terrible vs Cover-2 and Jesse Minter knows how to zone up LAC defense. Texans sagging confidence is evident. Chargers have won 8 of last 11 games, while Texans are 4-5 in last 9. Herbert is 4th in passing yards since Week 8.