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Sat, Jan 119:30 pm UTCNRG Stadium
Track OnCBS Sports
Los Angeles
Chargers
LAC
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-7
ATS12-5
O/U9-9-0
FINAL SCORE
12
-
32
Houston
Texans
HOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-8
ATS9-10
O/U7-12-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
11-7
Win /Loss
11-8
12-5
Spread
9-10
9-9-0
Over / Under
7-12-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
LAC @ HOU
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

MONEYLINE
LAC @ HOU
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OVER / UNDER
LAC @ HOU
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69%
PUBLIC
31%
MONEY
66%
PUBLIC
34%
MONEY
Over79%
PUBLIC
Under21%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Avatar
Total Receiving YardsDiontae Johnson Over 16.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.5
+1566.5
66-47 in Last 113 NFL Player Props Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

The Texans offense has been searching for answers for the past month. Since wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Tank Dell went down with injuries, Houston has looked pretty pedestrian. While I don’t think newly acquired veteran WR Diontae Johnson will magically solve their problems, I do think he could play a role in this game. Texans head coach Demeco Ryans had high praise for Johnson after his Week 18 debut. Although he only had 2 receptions for 12 yards on 4 targets, Ryans was happy with his integration and quick understanding of the offense. With limited options and in desperate need of a playmaker, I like C.J. Stroud to look Johnson’s way multiple times. One play can clear this line.

Pick Made: Jan 11, 7:55 pm UTC on Sugar House
Point SpreadHouston +3 -118
WIN
Unit1.0
+1593
105-72-2 in Last 179 NFL Picks
+302
9-7-1 in Last 17 NFL ATS Picks
+484
8-3 in Last 11 HOU ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.

Pick Made: Jan 11, 4:57 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+390
5-1 in Last 6 NFL Picks
+300
3-0 in Last 3 NFL ATS Picks
+126
8-6 in Last 14 LAC ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

It's a fact...the Texans have won a playoff game (last season, in fact) a lot more recently than have the Chargers. But a lot has changed since last January when Houston whipped Cleveland in this wild card round at NRG Stadium. The Bolts are now coached by Jim Harbaugh, who quickly flipped the culture and turned Justin Herbert (only 3 picks this season) into a more careful QB. Meanwhile, the Texans dealt with injuries all season, especially to the WR corps down key weapons Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, impacting QB CJ Stroud, whose numbers (including 12 picks) took a big dip, tossing only 10 TD passes across the last 11 games. Houston didn't close fast, either (4-6 vs. line last ten). Play Chargers

Pick Made: Jan 11, 4:16 pm UTC on Sugar House
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2467
84-54-4 in Last 142 NFL Picks
+2377
82-53-4 in Last 139 NFL ATS Picks
+922
26-15-2 in Last 43 LAC ATS Picks
Adam's Analysis:

Not sure I'd have taken the Chargers over the Texans at the midway point, but here we have a diminished Houston offense facing a surging Jim Harbaugh-coached team. The Chargers won three straight entering the postseason with a 9-2 ATS mark since Oct. 27; the Texans are 4-5 SU & ATS since Oct. 31. Justin Herbert is playing his best ball at the most important time. J.K. Dobbins is back healthy helping open the passing game. Conversely, C.J. Stroud has 9 TD and 8 INT over his last eight games with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both out. The Bolts being on the road for a third straight week deserves pause; it’s not enough to shy away from Herbert, this defense, Harbaugh and his staff.

Pick Made: Jan 11, 5:12 am UTC on Sugar House
1st Half Total Points1st Half Under 20.5 -120
WIN
Unit1.0
Todd's Analysis:

When i look at these two teams there are a lot of similarities both in roster construction and head coaching tendencies. Both teams want to run the ball and play a physical brand of football while both QB's are more than capable of hanging crooked numbers. However weapons on both sides in the passing game are limited and there are plenty of OL concerns each way. I think this game starts slow and only opens up if a team has to chase the game after halftime. First half under for me in the early kick

Pick Made: Jan 10, 11:04 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsLadd McConkey Over 74.5 Total Receiving Yards -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+106
8-6 in Last 14 NFL Player Props Picks
Dave's Analysis:

McConkey's locked up at least 80 yards in each of his past three & 6 of his past 7. I suspect McConkey will stick in the slot at least 60% of his snaps, which he's done in 6 of his past 7 games with Quentin Johnston on the field with him. That should eliminate either of Houston's outside cornerbacks from covering him. The Texans play a lot of zone coverage and won't necessarily pressure Herbert a lot, which gives McConkey added time to get open with his crisp route skills. And because the Texans run defense has played well lately, Herbert will probably shoulder more work, which means more throwing and more targets for McConkey. I'm fine playing this up to 77.5.

Pick Made: Jan 10, 4:46 pm UTC on DraftKings
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+916.5
31-20-4 in Last 55 NFL Picks
+816.5
30-20-4 in Last 54 NFL ATS Picks
+132
2-1 in Last 3 LAC ATS Picks
Jimmie's Analysis:

Money is already pouring in on the Chargers, so I wouldn't be surprised if this line pushes as high as -3.5 or -4 by gameday. The Texans were a mess down the stretch, and will undoubtedly miss Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell here. Houston shocked the Cleveland Browns in a similar situation in last year's playoffs. I don't see a similar performance coming from DeMeco Ryans' team on Saturday.

Pick Made: Jan 08, 5:01 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+575.5
38-28-1 in Last 67 NFL Picks
+90
2-1-1 in Last 4 NFL ATS Picks
+1016
34-21-4 in Last 59 LAC ATS Picks
Larry's Analysis:

The Texans' pass rush won't make this easy on Justin Herbert. But he's playing at such a high level, I believe he'll get the Chargers to 24 points and a cover. He's completing 74 percent of his throws against zone coverages, which Houston has played 73 percent of the time over the past seven games. He has a 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while C.J. Stroud, lacking a good offensive line, has turned it over 14 times. The Chargers have scored 108 points in the past three games and J.K. Dobbins' return has re-energized the play-action game.

Pick Made: Jan 08, 3:49 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -118
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1850
62-38-2 in Last 102 NFL Picks
+289
14-10-1 in Last 25 NFL ATS Picks
+177
4-2 in Last 6 HOU ATS Picks
Sia's Analysis:

I was a fade on the Texans going into the year and I'm going to be a fade on the Texans to close the year. It's a nice matchup for the Chargers as they shouldn't need to do much on offense to get this cover. With that said, Justin Herbert has excelled lately and he is equipped with a good offensive line, a healthy starting RB and at least one very talented receiver. The Texans offense has sputtered, thanks in part to a sophomore slump and some injuries and I don't expect them to move the ball against this solid Chargers defense.

Pick Made: Jan 08, 2:29 pm UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing InterceptionsC.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Total Passing Interceptions -130
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Texans run game with Joe Mixon has dried up, the Texans OC is kinda fraudulent and cant make adjustments, they lack a screen game and Stroud has a 76.7 rating vs Cover-2 in his career (same as Gardner Minshew last 2 yrs) with a 0-6 TD/INT, worst in NFL. He has 8 INTs in 6 games vs winning teams this season. He has picks in 5 of his last 8 games with 8 totals INTS in that span. Chargers had 15 picks

Pick Made: Jan 08, 3:01 am UTC on Caesars
Money LineL.A. Chargers -143
LOSS
Unit1.0
+819
53-39-1 in Last 93 NFL Picks
Micah's Analysis:

The Chargers are so good and well-coached that they won 11 games and lost six but covered 12 games with the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL at 17.7 per game allowed. They're so good because they essentially play all their games on the road with no home-field advantage in many games. They went 6-3 in the away games. And they come in flying high for this game winning their last three games. The Chargers don't throw interceptions either with Justin Herbert only tossing three of them. Chargers to win.

Pick Made: Jan 08, 12:11 am UTC on Sugar House
Over / UnderUnder 42.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+380
6-2 in Last 8 NFL Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
+670
10-3 in Last 13 LAC O/U Picks
Micah's Analysis:

The Chargers were No. 1 in the NFL in fewest points allowed at 17.7 per game point. This is a very conservative team, even though they've gone over the last four games, they want to control the game with their defense and slow the game down with their offense, and part of that is hanging on to the ball for long drives. They only had nine turnovers and three interceptions all year and the problem with the Texans is 19 turnovers aided by 12 interceptions. C.J. Stroud only had five interceptions last year. This will be Harbaugh football led by the defense, under is the play.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 11:03 pm UTC on Caesars
Avatar
Total ReceptionsNico Collins Under 6.5 Total Receptions -139
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

With Tank Dell hurt and the TEs tepid, expect routine safety help on Collins all the time. Derwin James can bang him around him in the slot. CJ Stroud will be under heavy pressure. Collins has hit this in just 2 of his last 8 games. It will take crazy volume to get to this I figure and Jesse Minter's zone scheme will keep things in front of the safeties and set out to eliminate the main thing in this pass attack. If you filter for garbage time - not expected in a close playoff game - only multi-faceted attacks had WRs for who over this number on the Chargers (Mike Evans, Drake London, Tee Higgins/Ja'Marr Chase) in the second half of the season.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 1:50 pm UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Receiving YardsLadd McConkey Over 69.5 Total Receiving Yards -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

He is the go-to guy in this passing attack. It's not even close. Darryl Stingley is a stud corner, but McConkey is getting off and has faced guys like Marlon Humphrey and AJ Terrell and Christian Gonzalez. And he is over this in 6 of his last 7 games and averaging 94 yards/G in that span. Kid has a knack for getting open and finding vacant spots in zone coverage, which the Texans play a lot of.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 1:59 am UTC on Sugar House
Avatar
Total Rushing YardsJustin Herbert Over 18.5 Total Rushing Yards -114
LOSS
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Herbert can grab big yards on the ground, and this is a game where designed runs could struggle. Mobile QBs - Anthony Richardson (twice), Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson - all went over this and each of them had a run of at least 15 yards in the process. Texans pass rush can get caught too far in the backfield and Herbert can scoot.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 1:37 am UTC on FanDuel
Avatar
Total Passing YardsJustin Herbert Over 229.5 Total Passing Yards -114
WIN
Unit1.0
+400
4-0 in Last 4 NFL Player Props Picks
Jason's Analysis:

The Chargers run game is sputtering and HOU is very tough to rush on. Justin Herbert will make his money here and his tackles can protect him. He's 4th in passing yards since Week 8 and averaging 246/G in that span. Six of the last 8 opposing QBs are over this vs HOU (including the Titans twice!) and Herbert is over this in 7 of the last 9 Chargers victories. The scope of their passing game expanded as the season went on. This is why he makes $50M/year.

Pick Made: Jan 07, 1:23 am UTC on Sugar House
Over / UnderUnder 43.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+1458.5
101-73-1 in Last 175 NFL Picks
+135
3-1 in Last 4 NFL O/U Picks
+320
6-2 in Last 8 HOU O/U Picks
Erik's Analysis:

If you think Jim Harbaugh was close to the best in the regular season, wait till you see playoff Jimmy. Plus, I don’t trust Houston in the red zone. No mistakes will be the order of the day. Let’s go under.

Pick Made: Jan 06, 9:44 pm UTC on FanDuel
Total Home PointsHouston Under 20.5 Total Pts -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+190
3-1 in Last 4 NFL Team Props Picks
R.J.'s Analysis:

The Texans are coming off mostly a week of rest for key players, and while the first string looked solid against the Titans, I'm still worried they'll turn into the unit that struggled mightily down the stretch when facing a solid Chargers defense as L.A. has held 13 of 17 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chargers can get dominated on the ground by good rushing offenses but Houston doesn't qualify there, so this will largely be about taking away Nico Collins and forcing Houston to find another way to score, and I don't see them finding three touchdowns that way.

Pick Made: Jan 06, 7:51 pm UTC on FanDuel
Over / UnderUnder 43.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.5
+346.5
10-5 in Last 15 NFL Picks
+240
2-1 in Last 3 NFL O/U Picks
+107.5
4-2 in Last 6 HOU O/U Picks
Daniel's Analysis:

Grab this total now above the key number of 43 on Fanduel. The Texans offense struggled mightily down the stretch of the season, and the O-line’s pass protection and run blocking is regressing badly. Teams now feel safe to stack the box against RB Joe Mixon. Chargers elite Safety Derwin James can limit explosive plays to Houston’s best weapon, WR Nico Collins. The Chargers identity this season has resembled an old school football team under Jim Harbaugh. Their run game, possession control and stout defense match up well against Houston. Demeco Ryans should have his #2 DVOA ranked defense raring to go, understanding that Houston’s success likely falls to them at this point. I see this being a 20-17 type of grinding affair.

Pick Made: Jan 06, 7:32 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+2017
60-36-3 in Last 99 NFL ATS Picks
+1170
33-19-2 in Last 54 LAC ATS Picks
Mike's Analysis:

The superior team in this matchup is indisputable. Los Angeles enters with a +101 points differential, which is 101 better than Houston’s. The Chargers yielded a league-low 301 points. Its offense is on fire, having averaged 36 ppg over the past three weeks. ATS? L.A. is 12-5, Houston around .500. The visitors have won three in a row and five of six outright. The Texans dropped their last two games that mattered, scoring a combined 21 points. Weather is no factor for the visitors from SoCal, with the stadium enclosed if necessary. Home-field advantage is negligible this season, with away teams winning at a 47 percent clip. This is L.A.’s third consecutive road game. However, last Sunday’s involved a quick hop to nearby Las Vegas.

Pick Made: Jan 06, 6:45 pm UTC on FanDuel
Point SpreadL.A. Chargers -2.5 -122
LOSS
Unit1.0
+275
5-2 in Last 7 NFL Picks
+38
5-4 in Last 9 NFL ATS Picks
+263
5-2 in Last 7 LAC ATS Picks
Jason's Analysis:

LAC have covered 9 of their last 11, Justin Herbert is 12-4 ATS last 16 as road favorite and Jim Harbaugh is 20-7-1 ATS (including playoffs) in this spot. HOU just 3-5 ATS at home, rank 30th in NFL In second-half scoring, CJ Stroud has a 78,8 rating outside the lowly AFC South. Chargers have scored 108 points last 3 games and have elite OT who can handle the Texans edge rush. HOU doesn't get great inside push. Stroud terrible vs Cover-2 and Jesse Minter knows how to zone up LAC defense. Texans sagging confidence is evident. Chargers have won 8 of last 11 games, while Texans are 4-5 in last 9. Herbert is 4th in passing yards since Week 8.

Pick Made: Jan 06, 3:38 am UTC on FanDuel

Team Injuries

Los Angeles Chargers
Tuesday, Jan 14, 2025
Avatar
WR
Josh Palmer
FootQuestionable
Avatar
OG
Trey Pipkins
ObliqueQuestionable
Sunday, Jan 12, 2025
Avatar
ILB
Daiyan Henley
Shoulder - LabrumQuestionable
Saturday, Jan 11, 2025
Avatar
ILB
Denzel Perryman
ElbowQuestionable
Avatar
CB
Cam Hart
ShoulderQuestionable
Houston Texans
Saturday, Jan 18, 2025
Avatar
LB
Azeez Al-Shaair
KneeQuestionable
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