Perhaps a bit of a lookahead game for Buffalo with a home game and playoff rematch vs. Kansas City next week. For what it's worth, the Bills are 0-1 in dome games this year. But this is mainly Josh Allen missing WRs Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. The Bills have had some issues against the run at times, so Jonathan Taylor could be in line for a nice day. It's the second week in a row that Buffalo visits a desperate team and it barely beat visiting Miami last Sunday on a late field goal. I could see similar here, although I definitely believe Indy can win.

This was going to be a play on the Colts either way, but with Amari Cooper now ruled out alongside Keon Coleman, Josh Allen will be down some weapons on the road. The Dolphins ran all over the Bills last week, and Jonathan Taylor should be able to do the same, which will open passing lanes for Joe Flacco and keep a defense that already doesn’t blitz much off his back. It’s also possible Buffalo is looking ahead to Kansas City next week. Indy is in a must-win spot coming off consecutive losses, and there’s good value here getting both 3 and 4 with this number.

Shakir leads the NFL with a 93.3% catch rate. When Shakir is targeted, he makes the grab. Shakir has terrific hands, and has caught 6+ receptions in three straight games. Shakir will face an Indy defense that plays a heavy amount of zone. Look for Shakir to sit down in coverage, and haul in another 6-8 receptions today.

Bills QB Josh Allen can present his case for league MVP here. WR Keon Coleman has been scratched and fellow WR Amari Cooper might be limited at best. By calling up a few wideouts from the practice, Buffalo signaled its concern. Injuries have spilled over to the defense, too. Indy has its own WR worries, with Michael Pittman Jr. out. While home-field advantage around the league has been lessened, it remains relevant for the Colts. They are 4-0 ATS in their dome. As underdogs this year, they have covered in five of six.

Last week against Minnesota, the Colts' offensive gameplan left a lot to be desired. Indianapolis was dominated to the tune of a minus-188 net yards differential, its worst mark since 2019. I'm buying the dip on what's become an underrated home-field advantage for Indy this week. Buffalo is banged up at wide receiver, with Keon Coleman officially ruled out while Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper are dealing with minor injuries, making winning by margin that much more difficult in a game that's seen substantial Under money. The Bills have been slow starting in most games, and I'm not expecting the trend to change after a last-second win against Miami. It's all about buying low with Indy at a price.

This is a case of matchup meets opportunity for WR Josh Downs. Downs runs his routes primarily out of the slot, and slot receivers have succeeded against the Bills this season. The Bills are a slot/underneath funnel allowing the 10th most yards per game on throws 10 or fewer yards from the line of scrimmage. With a great matchup on deck, Downs also has the opportunity and target share. Michael Pittman is out for the Colts, and Downs will operate as the clear WR1 for Joe Flacco. Flacco has targeted Downs 27.9% this season. Downs has exceeded this line in three of his five active games this season, and I look for him to soar past this line Sunday.

The Bills have won their last four games covering three of them and the only reason they didn't cover the last game was some nifty quarterbacking by the Dolphins. The Colts have lost two in a row and stopped their six-game cover streak last week. The reality is the Colts are only 4-5. They've done that without solid quarterbacking. The Colts have the worst completion percentage in the NFL. The Bills are tied for first in the NFL with the plus-11 turnover margin. They've only turned the ball over four times on offense, two times with the interception and two times with fumble. Bills to cover.

Colts running backs have collectively averaged nearly 25 carries per game in their four wins this year, and 16 carries per game in their five losses. If you think the Colts will beat the Bills, walk away from this, but I think Buffalo, a four-point favorite, can win. To that end, only three RBs all year have had at least 18 carries against the Bills, but just one since Week 5. And to give you an idea of how Taylor's workload changes based on the quarterback, the big guy had 13 carries last week in a competitive game with Joe Flacco under center. That's not the first time the Colts have wound up ignoring their run game with Flacco. I'm buying into this tendency.

Shakir has caught a remarkable 93% of his targets as a valuable slot weapon for Josh Allen. In the last three weeks, he's caught an average of seven passes and should be heavily utilized against the Colts zone defense in Week 10. This season, wide receivers who reach 7+ targets and 6+ catches vs. Indy are averaging 78+ yards. I expect Shakir to come close to that yardage total with that expected volume on Sunday.

Gay has multiple field goals in six straight outings and I'm going to ride the hot streak, especially with unimpressive quarterback play in recent weeks. Jonathan Taylor can run them down the field, but will Indianapolis be able to finish drives? Buffalo has allowed multiple field goals in three of their last five games.

Josh Downs has earned a 34 percent first-read target share whenever Joe Flacco plays quarterback. Now Downs faces a Bills defense giving up the seventh-highest target share to the slot, where Downs primarily plays. Michael Pittman (back) continues to be hobbled, though he's expected to play. His role has declined. Look for Downs to make at least six grabs Sunday.

The Colts might be down their best LB in this game and facing some coverage issues. Either way, IND has allowed 14 passing TDs already this season and Josh Allen isn't using his legs to finish drives anymore. Not even close. They are throwing it into the endzone and Allen is over this in 4 straight. He also has at least 30 attempts in 4 of his last 5 games. Colts are 26th against the pass and are 19th in the RZ. I like this matchup.

The Indianapolis Colts' offense and defensive metrics are somewhat disappointing due to their injuries. The defense is healthy as it has been this season, and they desperately need a win. Center Ryan Kelly is OUT, but Bernhard Raimann is a highly rated-backup. This could be a sleepy spot for the Buffalo Bills coming off that win over the Dolphins with five seconds on the clock, and they play the Kansas City Chiefs next week. Buffalo is 7-2 SU and hasn't defeated any team with a winning record. Indianapolis plays a zone defense, which is more effective than man coverage against Josh Allen. The Colts did not enter the red zone once during last week's loss in Minnesota. All nine Colts’ games decided by one possession.

The Bills are playing their fifth road game in seven weeks. They're coming off an emotional win over their division rival, and they've got the Chiefs on deck. So I can see them getting out of Indy with a win, but not by margin. Joe Flacco and Jonathan Taylor are going to show better than they did in primetime at Minnesota, maybe the NFL's toughest place to play. On the road, Buffalo is giving up 6.1 yards per play. And Indy's pass rush is healthy and looking formidable (4 sacks, 7 QB hits vs. Sam Darnold). Grab the points.