The Broncos’ reliance on an absurd number of turnovers feels unsustainable, but the defensive turnaround is tough to argue. C.J. Stroud has been coughing the ball up recently, and the Texans’ running game falling off a bit may allow Denver to pressure Stroud. Still, Houston’s more explosive offense should win out in the end at home against a Denver team that has won four of its five games on this streak at Mile High. The Broncos are 1-2-1 ATS away from home this season.

Give Russell Wilson and the Broncos credit, what a massive turnaround from the disaster last season became. Sean Payton and Russ have found a balanced attack for success and that includes Mr. Unlimited using his legs as well. A few rushing attempts by design, a couple by necessity and kneel downs to win the game count as well. Good number here.

If you're looking for a longshot anytime TD scorer for a sweat, this one has a decent chance of getting there. Two seasons ago as the featured TE, Jordan caught 20 passes on 28 targets for 3 TDs and he has remained a red-zone target despite limited snaps this season. With Dalton Schultz sideline because of an injury, Jordan should inherit a decent target share and be in play for his second TD of this season.

The Broncos have done a stunning about-face from a 1-5 club that was considered perhaps the worst in the NFL to five consecutive victories. Along with improved play, the Broncos have caught more than their share of breaks and close-game proficiency in the NFL is a fragile thing. The Texans came up short against divisional rival Jacksonville last week but their edge in firepower should be enough to get past Denver.

Don't look now, but the Denver Broncos find themselves firmly in the wild card playoff race, winners of five straight games. They're playing excellent complementary football and it's lead to wins. In this game, expect them to put pressure on CJ Stroud and also be able to run the ball; both of which travel well in the NFL.

Among the more interesting stats of the NFL season is the fact the Broncos allowed 10 TDs in one game earlier at Miami (remember?), but in a stunning transformation has allowed only nine TDs across the past six weeks. Credit DC Vance Joseph for figuring out his personnel and schemes, but credit must also go to Russell Wilson, who is finally starting to look like the QB he was at Seattle as he has helped propel the current 5-game win streak .Though improved, the Texans have failed to cover their last three spreads at home, even in games they won. We are hardly sure the Texans do any better vs. the revived Broncos defense. Play Broncos

Devin Singletary has played at least 75 percent of the snaps in four straight weeks. When Dameon Pierce returned from injury last week, Singletary still played 81 percent of the snaps. The Broncos give up an NFL-high 155.2 rushing yards per game. They give up an NFL-high 5.4 yards per carry and have allowed the highest YPC over the last six weeks, too. So the numbers aren't merely a result of the Broncos' defense historically bad start. Last week, when Singletary was ineffective as a rusher, he caught six passes for 54 yards.

Denver's 29 points last week were their most during their current five-game win streak, and short fields from Cleveland turnovers largely contributed to a 12-0 fourth quarter. Their grinding style tends to muck up the flow of the game for both sides. Moreover, the slumping Texans have managed just 42 points the past two weeks.

This is a very big game for both teams. The Broncos have won five straight while covering four of the five pointspreads. The defense allowed just 17 median points per game over that time. My model has Houston by 2.5-points however I give Sean Payton an edge in coaching and preperation. That the Broncos plus the points.

Samaje Perine has retaken the RB2 role on a run heavy offense. Jaleel McLaughlin only has two carries and one carry the last two games, while Perine had seven rushes for 55 yards and looked very good vs Cleveland's top rated defense. Regardless of his big game, he could still see some minutes in late game situation to go over this.

Wilson is averaging 29.0 attempts per game, and it's even lower in his past six games (26.0), but the matchup against a good Houston offense has some serious shootout potential as suggested by the 47-point total. Quarterbacks against the Texans are averaging 34.8 pass attempts per game, and I know a lot of that has to do with how opposing offenses are forced to throw because the Texans put points up. And I understand that Denver's defense is definitely improved, but to the point where they totally flummox CJ Stroud? I don't know if I can buy that.

The price might be considered steep for the hook -- most other books list the line at three -- but worth it. Texans QB C.J. Stroud has excelled at home yet must cope with the loss of OT Titus Howard. His replacement, Juice Scruggs, is a rookie. The Broncos' five-game outright win streak is built on home games against lesser opponents while overly reliant on the defense. Still QB Russell Wilson has not thrown an interception during the run. Houston has yet to cover in four outings as a favorite this season after ending last year on an 0-3 ATS slide.

The Broncos winning streak is a bit fraudulent as they have been very lucky with turnovers. During their 5 consecutive wins, Denver is plus-13 in turnover margin. Not only is that the best in NFL but it's at least 5 better than any other team. The Texans defense should bounce back after getting lit up by the Jags and I trust CJ Stroud to continue to make good plays.

The Broncos are plus-14 in turnover margin during their five-game win streak. They're earned those victories, but it's hard to ignore how fortunate they've been (recovering nine fumbles in that span). Russell Wilson has become extremely conservative, throwing at or near the line of scrimmage at a ridiculous rate. That won't be enough to keep up with C.J. Stroud (3,266 passing yards, 19 TDs, 5 INTs) and his exciting group of receivers.

The Texans made the mistake of leaning into Pearce last week, back from injury, instead of continuing to ride their hot hand at RB, especially on runs from under center. They started to correct midgame and Singletary got them going in the screen game. Just 12 touches in that critical loss (still had 71 scrimmage yards) after touching the ball 69 times the previous two games and going 100+ scrimmage yards in each of them. The folly of young play callers. Broncos are 32nd in the NFL vs the run, and it can't be all CJ Stroud chucking it around with a rookie vs the NFL's top takeaway defense.

Sean Payton is activating Russ's legs again, especially in the last month, and I don't see that changing here. He's had eight rushes or more in three of the last four games and the Texans just got carved up by Kyler Murray on the ground. Russ knows when to go and is INT-averse, so taking off and running is preferable in his decision-making. He's seen plenty of this D from his time in the NFC West facing Demeco Ryans, and I also see plenty of kneel down potential to help get us over this. Has 13 rushes in his last two road games, where pressure is a bigger factor.

In every regular season home start of C.J. Stroud's career (6 games), he's thrown at least two touchdown passes. While Denver's pass defense has gotten stingy since the middle of the season (13 TD passes allowed in Weeks 1-4 combined, six since), Stroud hasn't looked like a rookie QB, having also topped the 300 yard passing mark in four straight. This prop is a bit juicier than I usually like to play but sometimes the trends don't lie...

The Broncos have won their last five games to climb above .500 at 6-5 after a disastrous 1-5 start. Head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph righted their ship while QB Russell Wilson hasn't thrown an interception during the win streak and has 20 TD passes with only four interceptions on the season. The main reason for betting on them this week is the streak, and also beating good teams like the Browns, Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, and Packers. That's an impressive accomplishment. I think there's more to come. Broncos to cover.

The Broncos are the hottest team in football, winning five straight games after starting out 1-5 and coming off a five-win season in 2022. At 6-5 and very much "in the hunt," they're trying to become the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to start 1-5 and make the playoffs. This is a de facto Wild-Card Title Game of sorts. The Broncos have been playing great defense over this stretch, giving up just 16 points to opposing offenses the last five games after hemorrhaging 33.3 ppg over the first six weeks. Russell Wilson's playing his best football since he left Seattle (and really since before his final season with the Seahawks). This feels like a field goal game.

Forget what Denver was, lean into what they are now: A team that can run it, play D and they don’t turn it over. They smell playoffs. They might win outright.

Denver is all about volume in the run game and short pop-passes and all of that keeps the clock moving. Denver is playing at the third-slowest pace in the NFL during its 5-game win streak and they will carry that hard-hat approach on the road. Texans had been leaning more into the run game before their young coordinator got the yips last week. I don't see their head coach - a former LB - letting that happen again. Since Denver's D turned it around, all six of their game totals have been 46 or under. Six of the last eight Texans games have come in at 45 or under. This feels like 23-20 to me.

I really like Denver to win this game outright, but I'm going to cover my backside as well with this spread now over a field goal in my favor. Denver's defense is playing better right now and Broncos have the experience advantage across the board at coach and QB. DEN 4-1 ATS in their last 5 while HOU is 1-4 ATS in that span and 0-7 ATS in their last seven as a favorite. Lot of pressure on upstart Texans all if a sudden, and their rookie coach and QB. Russell Wilson knows how to keep it close and win close games with a high-percentage pass game and Broncos pressure rate is top 10 during their 5-game win streak.

Broncos on a roll with the best 4th quarter QB in the NFL who doesn't turn it over and makes plays when he has to. Denver will dictate slow pace, and are top 7 TOP team during their 5-game win streak. Texans D was on field 34 min Sunday and will face very physical opponent here. Broncos have allowed just 9 offensive TDs over the last 6 weeks (tied for 2nd in NFL), with a +11 turnover ratio in that span, while a young Texans team is turning the ball over. Texans RZ woes will show up vs a D that thrives inside the 20s. Denver has the kicker advantage, too. I see a Lutz FG being the difference. Sean Payton has Broncos believing

Denver has quietly gotten stout on D. And I believe they can run and slow the game. This total is so high any stalls will get us under. Grab it now

The Broncos have won five straight, but four were at home and this is a big road test against an improved Texans team. But Houston has won by more than three just once in their last five, and it came against a bad Arizona team. Houston's defense is 24th in yards per play and 28th in yards per pass, and they're up against a Broncos offense that's now first in interception rate. They had drives of 70-plus yards against an elite Browns defense and should have similar success here. We can't say Houston is definitively the better team, and that means this should be on the other side of 3.

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how this total has climbed even higher than last weeks AFC South showdown between Houston and Jacksonville. While we're obviously looking at a different matchup, the stakes are similar and we have two surging teams looking to make a statement. Denver plays as slow as any team in the NFL and also tend to go run heavy. I expect both of these offenses to implement run heavy game plans and I think touchdowns will be hard to come by leading to the under.