1 Expert Pick
Max Strus has cleared this plus money prop in 64% of games this season. …
Ayo Dosunmu has recorded 9, 5, and 7 rebounds in his last three games, playing at least 30 minutes each. Victor Wembanyama has been pulling Rudy Goebert outside creating opportunities for Edwards and Dosunmo to get boards. Over the last 3 games, Dosunmu is averaging 11.3 rebounds chances a game. We only need 5. And we are getting plus money.
In his career, Anthony Edwards has 27+ points in six of eight games with his team's season on the line, for an average of 26.5 points per game. He’s also averaging 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game in these situations. This will come down to how many minutes the Wolves allow Ant-man to play. He’s coming off an injury, but saw 40+ minutes in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 he played 39 minutes in a blowout. In Game 3 and 4, he scored 32 and 36 points, while scoring 30 in the lone game in the Nuggets series in which he played 40+ minutes. Small sample size, but that’s 3-for-3 when playing 40 minutes this postseason.
This has been a brutal matchup for Julius Randle. He's shooting 36.6 percent in the series, which includes 8 for 24 at home with eight turnovers. Following a strong Game 1, Randle has stayed Under this prop total the past four games. Bank on San Antonio's elite defense to keep frustrating Randle.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper continues to impress for the Spurs, and it’s evident that Mitch Johnson is looking for more ways to keep him on the court when it matters. The rookie has cleared this line in four of five games this series, including a 31 and 22 point plus rebound performance in Games 4 and 5 respectively. His size on the perimeter has posed problems for the Timberwolves, who do not send help defenders on ball-handlers (especially with Victor Wembanyama looming). The rookie’s confidence is clearly percolating, and this is a line he’s cleared in 23 of the last 33 games with a fully healthy Spurs lineup. I’d bet this to over 15.5 with confidence.
Ayo Dosunmu is healthy again, which has resulted in him playing at least 30 minutes in each of the last three games. In those three games, he averaged 7.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists, hitting this over each time. Mike Conley Jr. can’t play many minutes at this stage of his career, so Dosunmu is likely locked into at least 30 minutes again in Game 6. That’s an important threshold for him because he averaged 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists across 20 games in which he logged at least 30 minutes during the regular season. Look for him to remain productive in both departments as the Timberwolves try to stave off elimination.
Donovan Mitchell averages 31.3 ppg over his career in playoff closeout games (team is one win from advancing). He was limited to 21 in Game 5’s impressive road win, picked up by James Harden. But he scored 43 and 35 in the previous two. Back at home, look for the closer to do his thing and will the Cavs to the Eastern finals.
Detroit is built for the high pressure environment of a road elimination game. Their defensive identity consistently travels, allowing them to remain competitive even when shots are not falling. Although the market favors Cleveland at home, the Cavaliers have underperformed in this role, posting a disappointing record of 16-25 against the spread at Rocket Arena. Conversely, Detroit excels as an underdog, going 14-6 ATS in this season. Teams coming off a galvanizing close loss in this round cover the spread nearly 72% of the time in the next game. I like the road dog at this spot.
Paul Reed has gotten 10 or more minutes in four playoff games. Each time, he has produced at least 12 combined points and rebounds. In fact, he has cleared this prop total in 13 of the last 14 games in which he received 10-plus minutes. It's hard to figure out JB Bickerstaff's rotation patterns, but I'm betting he gives Reed significant minutes Friday after he played him for the entire fourth quarter and overtime Wednesday. Bickerstaff calls Reed "a run-stopper," meaning he can end Cavs' runs. At home, Cleveland is likely to rip off a few spurts, requiring Bickerstaff to call on Reed.
In a pivotal Game 5, JB Bickerstaff benched Jalen Duren for the entire fourth quarter and overtime. Duren's minutes this series have gone like this: 35, 33, 29, 27, 25. Paul Reed and Isaiah Stewart played well in Game 5, posting a combined plus-12 in 28 minutes, while Duren was minus-16 in 25 minutes. In the two games in Cleveland, Duren recorded 15 and 10 combined points and rebounds. He could have a double-double Friday and still fall below this prop total.
Thought the Cavs had a better roster than the Pistons anyways and now they have a chance to finish at home. Ideally, James Harden calls in sick (Beard not a great track record in elimination games), but Cleveland has been dominant at home for months. Detroit is terrible at 3-point shooting anyways and without Duncan Robinson even worse. He missed Game 5 and iffy for Game 6. I'm not sure it matters because while D-Rob can shoot, he's a massive defensive liability. Basically me. The Pistons need to get Giannis this offseason. Then they'd be fun.
The No. 1-seeded Pistons lost a critical Game 5 at home against the Cavaliers, and now they're on the brink of elimination in Game 6 at Cleveland. Star player Cade Cunningham did his job with 39 points off 13-of-27 shooting and 6-of-10 from 3-point range, but the problem is that nobody else helped him as the team shot under 40% without Cunningham’s stats. And that's where James Harden's veteran savvy came into play as he went to the free-throw line 14 times and scored 30 points in the game. It was a balanced attack, and the Cavs shot 40% from 3-point range and won despite having 16 turnovers. Cavs close it out tonight, making up for their failure as the No. 1 seed last year.
FanDuel. Given the trajectory of his role and how the Cleveland bigs have struggled on the glass, I like Max Strus to clear his rebounds line once again. He’s recorded at least 5 rebounds in 15/24 games this season, including 3/5 this series. Strus’ minutes reached 31 (in regulation) in Game 5, as he was entrusted with defending Cade Cunningham down the stretch. Needed on the floor offensively for floor spacing, the high-energy veteran should continue to make an impact in Game 6. Look for Strus to clear this plus-money prop.
DraftKings. Outside of Cade Cunningham and Tobias Harris, the Pistons have struggled mightily to find consistent offensive production. Daniss Jenkins was a spark-plug for the Pistons in Game 5, and I like him to continue to find success tonight. Even with Duncan Robinson returning, the Pistons double point guard lineup was able to create opportunities, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jenkins poached minutes from the offensively challenged Ausar Thompson as well. Jenkins has cleared this line in 3/5 this series, and I like him to make it 4/6 tonight. Play to 12.5.
Donovan Mitchell struggled in Game 5, shooting just 7-for-18 from the field. That included him going 1-for-8 from behind the arc. He still scored 21 points, showing how high his floor is because of his usage rate. Prior to that performance, he had three straight games with at least 31 points. He shot 49.3% from the field at home this season and has scored at least 30 points in four of six home playoff games. With the home crowd behind him, I like Mitchell to score at least 27 points.