6 Expert Picks
Will OG Anunoby play in Philly? ....
Mikal Bridges looks to pick up the slack for the injured Knicks. …
VJ Edgecombe only played 28 minutes with the 76ers getting blown out in Game 1...
Naz Reid averaged 7.3 rebounds at home this season. ...
Fade this Spurs star’s combined player prop line in Game 3. …
The Timberwolves continue to battle injuries...
In the last four playoff games, the Lakers have scored 96, 93, 98, and 90 points. During the seven postseason games, the Lakers' pace of play at 92.55 is the second-slowest of all playoff teams. Versus the Thunder this year, L.A. has 92, 110, 96, 87, and 90 points, with the last 3 coming in April or Tuesday's Game 1. The Lakers know the best way to slow down the Thunder is to limit the possessions. They had 53 points at halftime of Game 1, and still ended with only 90.
In each of the past two games -- Game 1 vs. the Lakers and Game 4 at Phoenix -- Chet Holmgren grabbed 12 boards. I like him to continue that pace, or close to it, against the offensively-challenged Lakers. Holmgren averaged 9.7 rebounds at home during the regular season, compared to 8.2 on the road. He is a total mismatch for LA, so he should see plenty of minutes before garbage time.
DraftKings. Across 25 games with at least 24 minutes, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren averaged 28 combined points plus rebounds, and had a 72% success rate on this line. This is a solid matchup for Chet, where his height poses a mismatch offensively, and defensively he can float and crash the glass. I’d bet this to over 25.5.
Tobias Harris has been sensational for the Pistons throughout the postseason and has seen his scoring average rise over 8 PPG. While he’s playing more and his usage is up, that’s simply unsustainable considering his usage rate, thus hes a regression candidate. This is a bloated line and I would fade him at 17.5 as well.
Not easy fading Cade Cunningham, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 31.3 PPG. But most of that was vs. Orlando. In five games vs. Cleveland this season, including Game 1 on Tuesday, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 19.4 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 33.7% shooting and 21.7% from beyond the arc. He had 23 points in 42 min of Game 1.
The Pistons survived their first round as a No. 1 seed. The team took a sigh of relief and outscored the Cavs 37-21 in the opening quarter of Game 1 of the second round. They made Jarrett Allen a non-factor and Cade Cunningham shot just 6-of-19; he’ll do better. Cleveland covered in just 37.8% of road games – only the Wizards were worse. This is also only the fourth time since March 1 the Cavs will be underdogs in a game. The previous three, they lost by 10, 22 and 14. The 10-pointer was Game 1.
Sam Merrill injured his hamstring and left after seven minutes of Game 1. Max Strus stepped up with 19 points, five rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes. Merrill missed Wednesday's practice, got an MRI and is questionable. Given he missed games in March and April due to hamstring issues, and that he was not walking well in the locker room Tuesday night, I don't expect him to play. That would leave Strus with big minutes. Strus missed the first 67 games this season recovering from a fractured foot, then shot 40.2 percent from deep in the final 12 games. In the playoffs, he's 20 of 45 (44.4 percent) from deep. Cleveland needs to replace Merrill's shooting, so Strus should get a lot of opportunities.
Caesar’s. I’m buying into James Harden’s surge on the boards. After finishing the Raptors series with 24 rebounds over the final three games, Harden had 8 on 10 potentials in game 1 against the Pistons. Rebounding has been a point of emphasis for Cleveland since the middle of the Toronto series, and Harden noticeably has upped his willingness going from averaging seven potential rebounds over the first four playoff games to 11.8 over the last four. Look for Harden to continue to make waves on the glass in Game 2.
DraftKings. Going to hold my breath and fade Cade Cunningham tonight. The Cavs, whose pick and roll defense was top five in the regular season, did a solid job on the Pistons guard in Game 1, holding Cade to 6/19 shooting en route to a 23 point and 7 assist effort. The Cavs were able to trap/blitz Cade at the point of attack, forcing Detroit to use their secondary playmakers (and Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson have been meeting the moment). Dean Wade has the size to disrupt Cunningham (akin to Franz Wagner in the first round) - but unlike Orlando, Cleveland’s big men will help to stop the ball. Would bet this down to under 36.5.