3 Expert Picks
The Wizards will be very shorthanded Sunday with Alex Sarr, Khris Middleton, Bilal Coulibaly, Corey Kispert and Cam Whitmore all out...
Carlton Carrington has started each of the last five games for the Wizards...
Alperen Sengun is coming off a miserable performance. ...
A bit bumpy lately for the Heat, loser in six of seven and apparently missing explosive G Tyler Herro (23.2 ppg; out the past two weeks with toe.). Herro is slated to miss again on Sunday, and worth noting that before the Celtics' Derrick White erupted for nine triples on Friday to speed up the pace at TD Garden, Miami scorelines has been reducing. The previous five losses in the current slump saw the Heat held to 111 points or fewer. As for the Knicks, they looked a bit tired on Friday vs. the Sixers, and note the last meeting between these two landed on 228 on November 17, the pace much slowed from their previous clash three nights earlier. Play Heat-Knicks Under
Jalen Johnson has been absolutely on fire recently and while he’s certainly an All-Star caliber forward, this combo line is approaching Luka Doncic territory. Even in an up tempo game environment, I would fade Johnson at this number, especially considering Trae Young is back in the Hawks lineup.
DraftKings. I’m going to stay on Maxime Raynaud today - the rookie had the best game of his young career (29 points and 11 rebounds) on Thursday in this same matchup against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento will continue to be without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Drew Eubanks, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the Stanford product. Coming off a game with a 27% usage rate and 16 paint touches, Raynaud should feature prominently again tonight.
Guard depth will be an issue for the Grizzlies with Ja Morant (ankle) and Vince Williams Jr. (knee) out. Jaylen Wells has already been playing more lately, averaging 30 minutes over his last 11 games. During that stretch, he scored at least 15 points nine times. The Wizards have played at the sixth-fastest pace and have the worst defensive rating in the league, so I think Wells can stay hot in the scoring department and hit this over.
With Ja Morant (ankle) out Wednesday against the Timberwolves, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 28 points. The game prior, he put up 31 points versus the Clippers. Morant will be out again Saturday, which should leave additional shot attempts for Jackson. The Wizards have played at the sixth-fastest pace and have the worst defensive rating in the league, which puts Jackson in a favorable position to hit this over at home.
No Ja Morant might even be a plus for the Grizzlies, who won again minus Ja on Wednesday at Minnesota. That's now 8-2 for Memphis in its last ten minus Morant, who has already been ruled out due to a bad ankle for tonight's game vs. the Wizards. The Griz has been extending margins lately, too, with recent wins by 23 over the Blazers and 18 over the Clippers. As for a go-to scorer, Jaren Jackson is now filling the role nicely after his 28-point effort vs. the T-wolves. Meanwhile, the Wiz look a bit more competent lately, but that usually doesn't last, following up a win at Indiana with a 25-point loss at San Antonio on Thursday, dropping to 4-21 this season. Play Grizzlies
Typically when a team has their star player ruled out, and are in a back to back spot we see a wild line move. That is not the case with the Celtics who will be without Jaylen Brown tonight. Just thirteen days ago they went into Toronto and won by thirteen. After winning eight straight games at home, the Raptors have now lost four straight games at home. Take the Celtics here
I recommend waiting to make sure Jaylen Brown is out, but he's doubtful. In a normal universe, that should mean out but it's the NBA so I trust nothing. Sometimes Joel Embiid goes from "corpse" to "probable" in like two hours. Don't get me started. Boston is in the second of a B2B and that's why not likely. Yeah, I guess it's hard making $40 million and playing basketball twice in 24 hours. Here is the world's tiniest violin. But I'm all about positivity today after that (quite ugly) Canes win. I don't think the Celtics win in Toronto without Brown. It's also one of those one-game trips that players despise.
FanDuel. Riding the Cooper Flagg train. The number one pick has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games, with the lone miss against the Thunder. He’ll now face the 76ers who allow the eighth most at-rim points, and are well below average against transition and pick and roll initiators - Flagg’s most prominent playtypes. I’d bet this to over 19.5 points.
DraftKings. His role isn’t what it once was, but Ajay Mitchell is still hitting this line consistently. He’s over in eight of ten games when playing between 16 and 26 minutes. And this is a spot against the Timberwolves that don’t defend on the ball as well as years past.
Trae Young returned for the Atlanta Hawks yesterday, and the team got off to a flat start defensively against the Charlotte Hornets. They did get back in the game but still lost by seven points. With Young resting, I believe that gives value for the Hawks against a Spurs team they had a smaller spread for in San Antonio. As we saw with the Knicks yesterday, this could be a flat spot for San Antonio off the NBA Cup in Las Vegas. Take Atlanta here plus the points.
Caesar’s. I’m continuing to buy Jaylon Tyson stock. He’s cleared this line in 8/13 games without either Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen (the former is out today), and remains the most consistent Cavs role player since entering the rotation and starting lineup. He gets a matchup against the Bulls again (21 points and 2 rebounds on Wednesday) - I expect him to continue to produce against a team that’s below average against Tyson’s strengths.