This feels like a prime letdown spot for a Lakers club that is in the second of a six-game road swing. They toppled the short-handed Rockets 100-92 on Monday night, but the return of big man Alperen Sengun should give Houston a needed boost as it aims to close the gap for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
So tough to sweep one of these baseball-type series on the road in the NBA even against a bad team, much less a good one like Houston. I touch on this in today's newsletter, but I expect a very motivated Kevin Durant tonight after he played terribly in Monday's home loss to the Lakers. The Rockets also didn't have second-leading scorer and All-Star center Alperen Sengun, and he's back tonight. L.A. is rolling but also the front of a back-to-back with LeBron maybe peeking ahead to a return to Miami on Thursday.
DraftKings. Since returning from his midseason injury, Austin Reaves is under this combined line in 9/13 games played alongside both LeBron James and Luka Doncic. In what should be another grind of a game between two teams that sit in the bottom 11 of the league in pace, I don’t see Reaves getting the requisite volume he’d need to clear this line. I’d bet this down to under 28.5.
Dyson Daniels does it all for the surging Hawks. He has cleared this prop total in seven of his last nine games. On March 10 at home vs. Dallas, Daniels posted 14 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds in 36 minutes. This month he's averaging 26.7 points-assists-rebounds despite playing under 30 minutes twice. Look for another big game for Daniels in a great matchup.
The Hawks last played the Mavericks on March 10th, winning 124-112 as a 10-point home favorite, which made it seven straight wins for the Hawks at the time. That streak is still alive, and it's up to 10 games straight after they beat the Magic 124-112 as 3.5-point favorites two nights ago in Atlanta. They've covered nine of their last 10 games. This team is now 37-31 on the season, sitting as the 8th seed, one win behind the 5th seed. They are having a blast, and it shows on the stat sheet. Jalen Johnson gets himself another triple-double tonight, and the Hawks cover at Dallas.
Caesar’s. Onyeka Okongwu has cleared this rebounds line in 14/18 games as a starter, when facing a bottom 12 team in rebounds allowed. The Mavericks are 27th in that department this season, and Okongwu cashed in on this same line against them just last week (9 rebounds). Look for the Hawks big man to continue to hit the boards tonight.
This is a very large combo line for Ayo Dosunmu who is expected to see an uptick in usage and playing time with Anthony Edwards on the shelf for the Timberwolves. I ultimately believe this line is an overreaction and that this line is a lot closer to Dosunmu’s ceiling than his floor, even in a plus matchup.
This is a pretty significant discount on Scottie Barnes combination line in what should be a paced up environment against a Bulls team that has been extremely generous to opposing wings. Barnes has been in a relative slump by his standards, however I was encouraged by his previous performance and this presents a nice buy low for him.
The Toronto Raptors won both of their latest matchups at home over the Phoenix Suns, and Detroit Pistons. Now they will try and correct their issues on the road which has resulted in three straight losses and failures ATS. Chicago has been a team they have had strong results against with a sixteen point and nine point win this season. Lay the number with the Raptors.
Brandon Ingram scored 36 and 34 points in his last two games. He did so against two very good defensive teams in the Suns and Pistons. He has a much easier opponent Wednesday in the Bulls, who play at the fourth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. In his last two games against them, he scored 33 and 31 points. I like his chances of hitting this over.
The Thunder could win by 40 if they wanted but why? It's the second of a B2B after a tough game in Orlando on Tuesday, and Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and (probably) Chet Holmgren will sit in Brooklyn. Just get up by 20 and get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others out of there late third quarter. OKC is 1-8 ATS in its past nine. The Nets can win the battle of the backups late and cover.
Scoot Henderson has scored at least 16 points in four of his last five games. That included a 28-point performance against the tanking Pacers, who he will play again Wednesday. In their first meeting, he played 26 minutes and shot 10-for-15 from the field. Vit Krejci (calf) is out Wednesday, so Henderson has a great opportunity to play around 25 minutes again. With the Pacers having the worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games, Henderson could sail past this line.
Without Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Joel Embiid and Kelly Oubre, the 76ers are relying heavily on Quentin Grimes. He's taken 22 shots each of the past two games and has cleared this prop total in four of his last six. Expect another 35-plus minutes from Grimes in a game with a total of 236.5.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper is expected to suit up tonight after missing the last two games with a calf injury. It’s a great spot for the rookie to get his feet back underneath him against the dreadful Kings, who rank 28th defensively this season. Against the bottom eight teams in defensive rating, Harper is over this line in 10/13 games this season.
FanDuel. Jumping back on the Justin Edwards wagon tonight. The Sixers wing has now cleared this line in each of his last four games with extended minutes. As the Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Kelly Oubre, Edwards will be looked upon to fill the void. Even if this game gets out of hand (which I expect) Edwards should still see 25+ minutes.