1 Expert Pick
Maxime Raynaud has acquitted himself well of late. …
Dillon Brooks got ejected at the end of Sunday's loss to the Lakers. Look for him to be extremely focused Thursday against Golden State. His scoring and rebounding usually go up at home, where he averages 25.2 points and 3.4 rebounds. The Warriors have given up 136 and 127 points the past two games, and we have a total in the low 230s.
The tanking seems to have already begun in Utah. In their last game versus the Mavericks, they sat Jusuf Nurkic for rest. Kyle Filipowski started in his place and recorded 25 points and nine rebounds. For Thursday, they have ruled out Lauri Markkanen. When Filipowski closed last season as a starter, he averaged 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds over 11 games. Add all of that to Deandre Ayton (elbow) being out for the Lakers and I like this over.
With the Nuggets being shorthanded, Nikola Jokic has put the team on his back. Over their last four games, he has scored at least 36 points three times. The one time he didn’t, he scored 28 points. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are still out, and even Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr. are listed as questionable for Thursday. Don’t expect the likes of Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze to slow down the three-time MVP.
Klay Thompson has been much better since moving to the bench for the Mavericks. He averages 12.2 points as a reserve, compared to 8.8 points as a starter. Also working in his favor Thursday is the Mavericks playing in Dallas. He averages 9.9 points on the road, but 11.9 points per game at home. With regards to this line, Thompson has scored at least 10 points in eight of his last nine games. I’ll take the over.
Zion was limited to 27 minutes in his return from (another) injury on Sunday in Chicago and came off the bench but still scored 18. I'd expect him to start tonight and get at least 30 minutes. Our model has him at 22.1 points. I know Kevin Durant is one of Williamson's idols, so he should be duly motivated against KD. I never say I love a prop because it can be not relevant at all to the game result and obviously injuries, foul trouble can happen. But this does seem low to me.
Dylan Harper scored 21 points when the Spurs lost to the Knicks in the NBA Cup championship game. He is only averaging 13.1 points per game for the season, but injuries have resulted in him playing 11 of his 15 games on the road. As the Spurs return from Vegas and face a Wizards team that has the worst defensive rating in the league, there are a couple of paths to Harper playing around 30 minutes in this game. If he does, he could blow past this line.
A bit maddening lately for the Rockets, who have lost three straight away, but playing for just the second time in a week, the batteries should be charged for tonight at Smoothie King. Nothing wrong with the effort on Monday at Denver, however, when Houston was unfortunate not to have won regulation time. Getting Alperen Sengun back on the floor after missing a recent loss at Dallas has been a plus, and the Rockets' big lineup has been able to extend many margin this season vs. lesser opposition. That category fits the Pels, despite two wins on the spin, even with and Zion Williamson (knock on wood) back in action. Note NO has ten losses by DD margins already this campaign. Play Rockets
If there is any team that needed the mini layoff from the NBA Cup championship it was the Miami Heat. They have lost five straight games, and scored a season low 96 points in Monday’s loss to the Raptors. Even without Tyler Herro, look for the Heat to overwhelm a Nets team that is playing over their capabilities with wins in four out of their last six games. Lay the number with Miami.
I believe in intangibles. Played low-level basketball and even there after a big win, it was Letdown City. Course, my rival was Cub Scout Pack 104 (I was in 103, obviously the superior), but you get the point. This feels like one of the biggest letdown games of the season for any NBA team much less the Knicks, who had to play an extra game that does not count Tuesday in winning the NBA Cup and got paid $500K+ each for winning it -- and not putting up the banner at MSG, which I find funny (nor should they). So a bunch of young guys spent a long weekend in Vegas and suddenly came into money. Does that ever end well? It's called "the Hangover."
FanDuel. Tyler Kolek should find himself with a good sized workload for the Knicks tonight. Coming off his surprising performance in the NBA Cup Finals, I’m guessing the Knicks lean on their role players in the first leg of a back to back. Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson have been declared out, along with Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet.
Jaden McDaniels has poured in 21 and 17 points the last two games without Anthony Edwards (foot) in the lineup. Edwards is officially questionable; he did individual drills Tuesday but was not a full participant in practice. Minnesota has OKC on deck Friday, a game it will definitely need Ant to play in. Even if Edwards plays Wednesday against Memphis, McDaniels could very well score 16 points. He's averaging 17.0 points at home on 12.7 shots per game. In six games without Edwards, McDaniels is averaging 21.5 points.
DraftKings. Usage play on Donte DiVencenzo - who has cleared this line in four of six games without Anthony Edwards. Without Mike Conley either, DDV will be relied on to run the offense. Good matchup against a Grizzlies defense that are a top five matchup for opposing point guards. I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. I’m continuing to key in on Jaylon Tyson. In his elevated role, he’s cleared this combined line in 12 of 16 games with at least 24 minutes played. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be in for another solid workload, as the Cavs will be without both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill. The Bulls play fast (third in pace) and allow plenty of rebounds (sixth most). Tyson thrived in this matchup earlier this season with 17 points and 7 rebounds in 31 minutes - I expect more of the same tonight.
Jaren Jackson Jr. played 33 minutes and scored 31 points in his last game Monday versus the Clippers. Still, he grabbed just four rebounds. He has hauled in fewer than six rebounds in six of his last eight games and is averaging 5.0 rebounds for the season. Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle have helped the Timberwolves allow the 11th-fewest rebounds per game in the league, so Jackson could be in line for another quiet night on the boards.