Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in eight of 12 games this season. Coming off the worst shooting performance of his young career, I love this as a bounceback spot against the Pelicans non-existent defense. Yes, Stephon Castle is back, but I don’t see that as an impediment to Harper’s minutes off the bench (plus the Spurs are notoriously slow with working their players back from injury).
DraftKings. Rookie Maxime Raynaud has come on strong for the Kings, clearing this line in three of his last four games. Earning his first start on Saturday (in a surprising Kings blowout win), I expect the big man to remain in an expanded role moving forward. It’s a great matchup against the Pacers who have really struggled defending centers this season, allowing the sixth most points. Specifically, Indy ranks 27th against roll men in the pick and roll, and 24th overall in paint points allowed.
DraftKings. Jalen Williams has cleared this line in three of four games this season. The big headline today is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out, along with a few other Thunder rotation players. Without SGA on the floor since the beginning of last season, Williams sees his usage rate shoot up to 34%. Against a team like the Jazz that bleeds spot up shooting (second most assists allowed), I love this spot. I also do like Williams to rebound well, as he typically does in lineups without Isaiah Hartenstein.
FanDuel / MGM. After taking some paternity leave, Luka Doncic returns to the floor tonight. Averaging 35.3 points per game this season, Doncic has cleared this line in all five games that he, Austin Reaves and LeBron James have played together this season. This is an ideal spot for Luka’s points prop too - the Sixers are 27th in pick and roll defense. Likely running on some added emotion/adrenaline, I love Doncic to go off tonight. I’d bet this up to over 32.5 points.
DraftKings. Back to the well to fade Jaren Jackson Jr. again. He’s averaging 19.3 points plus assists this season - and he’s under in 6/9 without Ja Morant. This should be a tougher spot for him against the Blazers, who limit spot up opportunities at the fourth best rate. Plus, the foul prone Jackson could be in trouble tonight against the Blazers who draw the most fouls per game. Likely drawing the Deni Avdija matchup, Jackson Jr. is a prime candidate for foul trouble.
DraftKings. This line is a touch high for Andrew Wiggins, even without Tyler Herro available. With no Herro, but with Bam Adebayo available, Wiggins is under this line in 8/10 games. This isn’t the best matchup for an under, but there is the added element of this being a back to back. I’d bet this to under 25.5.
DraftKings. Jaylon Tyson has cleared this line in eight of nine games without Jarrett Allen available this season - and the one miss was partially due to significant foul trouble. The second-year pro has looked the part of a commentary piece for the Cavs, averaging 22 points + rebounds across the 12 games he’s played at least 26 minutes. Darius Garland is likely back tonight, but Tyson’s role and minutes should remain largely unchanged. It’s just too low of a line for Tyson right now.
FanDuel. Saddiq Bey has cleared this combined line in seven straight games, coinciding with Herb Jones going down with a calf injury. Now without Zion Williamson (and still no Jordan Poole), Bey will be continue to be relied on to produce. It’s a fantastic matchup for his skill set offensively - the Nets are last against spot up shooters, and third to last in allowing transition points.
FanDuel. This is a sky high line, but one that Zach Edey has been clearing regularly of late. He has at least 15 rebounds in five of his last six games, with the one exception being a six-minute outing against the Nuggets. His rotation is up to 30 minutes per game, pending foul trouble, and he’s been a menace on both the offensive and defensive glass. He grabbed 19 rebounds against the Clippers earlier this season, and was strong on the glass against Ivica Zubac last year as well.
DraftKings. I’m going to keep on beating the Jaylon Tyson drum. The sophomore wing has continued to produce when given the opportunity: he’s cleared this line in nine of 12 games when playing at least 24 minutes. The Cavs will be without Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland and Sam Merrill tonight, meaning Tyson should once again have a safe minutes floor. It’s an ideal matchup against the Spurs who allow a lot of secondary action (27th in spot up points allowed). I’d bet this to over 20.5.
Jalen Suggs has not cleared this line with any regularity this season - he’s under in 5/9 when he plays between 26 and 34 minutes. Lately, the Magic have finally seen Desmond Bane emerge as a high usage scoring threat, and Anthony Black has strung some solid outings together off the bench. Plus, Paolo Banchero returns tonight in a limited capacity, giving the Magic their go-to option back.
DraftKings. Deandre Ayton has cleared this line in 10 of the last 15 full games he’s played. No Luka Doncic available tonight - Ayton is 4/4 on this line without Luka. Now, none of those games were with LeBron James, but I don’t expect to command nearly the shot/scoring volume of Doncic. And if anything, LeBron’s presence adds another ball-handler in the pick and roll, which should benefit Ayton in this matchup. The Raptors struggle defending roll-men, allowing the ninth most points to the playtype. The Raptors do a great job of limiting transition, and I expect Ayton to be featured heavily in the half court offense, especially as Toronto will be without Jakob Poeltl tonight.
DraftKings. Marvin Bagley has 20+ points + rebounds over his last three games. With Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert all out tonight, Bagley should once again be in for a solid role. The Celtics allow the eighth most combined points and rebounds to opposing centers this season. Bagley should have success on the offensive glass as well - the Celtics allow the second highest offensive rebound rate.
DraftKings. The Bulls will be without a ton of guards tonight: Coby White, Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter and Isaac Okoro, amongst others. Ayo Dosunmu, who has logged a significant role of late, should have a very steep minutes floor tonight. Dosunmu has cleared this line in eight of 12 games when playing just 26+ minutes this season, and he gets a fantastic matchup for his play style. The Nets are the worst and fourth worst team against spot up shooters and transition, respectively. I’d bet this up to over 19.5.
FanDuel. Even with Darius Garland and Lonzo Ball returning to the lineup tonight, there should still be enough minutes for Jaylon Tyson to clear this line. Coming off a career game in which he notched 27 points and 11 rebounds, Tyson has now cleared this line in six of seven games without Jarrett Allen. And without the big man, there is a direct path to closing minutes, especially in a matchup against the Blazers who run with one big and four guards/wings. Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson should continue to ride the hot hand - I have Tyson projected closer to 19 points plus rebounds.













