DraftKings. Usage play on Donte DiVencenzo - who has cleared this line in four of six games without Anthony Edwards. Without Mike Conley either, DDV will be relied on to run the offense. Good matchup against a Grizzlies defense that are a top five matchup for opposing point guards. I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. I’m continuing to key in on Jaylon Tyson. In his elevated role, he’s cleared this combined line in 12 of 16 games with at least 24 minutes played. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be in for another solid workload, as the Cavs will be without both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill. The Bulls play fast (third in pace) and allow plenty of rebounds (sixth most). Tyson thrived in this matchup earlier this season with 17 points and 7 rebounds in 31 minutes - I expect more of the same tonight.
DraftKings. It’s a tougher matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. The Spurs allow the seventh fewest points plus rebounds to opposing centers this season. Against teams in the top 20 of both points in the paint allowed and rebounds allowed (Spurs are 7th in both categories), Towns is under this line in six of nine games. It’s a very tough individual matchup against Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and when the former is on the court, Towns becomes a big time foul liability. I’d bet this down to under 31.5.
Bet365 at -120. If you strip out the game he left early with an injury, Ja Morant is averaging more than 12 rebounds plus assists per game (30.4 minutes). Having come back from said injury and playing 25 minutes three days ago, I do think Morant should be in line for 30 minutes tonight. He’s cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games, and he’ll be facing the Clippers, who allow the fifth most rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Morant looked engaged in his first game back, and I’m banking on that to carry over today.
DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.
DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.
DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.
DraftKings. This should be a nice spot for Coby White, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Bulls will be without both Ayo Donsunmu and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt, which should bump White’s usage even more. The Hornets struggle defensively on the perimeter, and White should benefit both as a pick and roll imitator, and on the fastbreak.
DraftKings. Back to the Jaylon Tyson well we go. The sophomore has cleared this line in eleven of fourteen games when playing at least 24 minutes, and 8/9 without Jarrett Allen. With Allen and Sam Merrill remaining out, Tyson should continue to see a strong minutes floor tonight. It’s a soft matchup against the Wizards (for everyone on the Cavaliers), and one that should be played at a breakneck pace, with both teams in the top ten of tempo.
DraftKings. After a slow start to his season, Derrick White has come on strong of late, clearing this line in ten of his last 14 games. Playing second fiddle to Jaylen Brown, I expect White’s counting stats to continue on this upward trajectory over the course of the season - his 23% usage rate is easily the highest of his Celtics tenure. He gets a solid matchup against the Bucks tonight - Milwaukee has struggled to defend perimeter ball-handlers all season. The Bucks have specifically struggled defending the three, which is where White should thrive as a shooter and facilitator. I’d bet this to over 24.5.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper is averaging 17.4 points plus assists this season, clearing this line in 9/12 full games he’s played. His usage since returning from injury has bumped upwards, with at least a 25% over the last six games. With Victor Wembanyama still sidelined, and Stephon Castle shaking off some rust from his own injury, I’m expecting another high usage effort from Harper, in his standard 20-24 minutes (with upside for more). The Lakers have struggled against ball-handling guards of late, and I like this game to have some decent pace to it.
Caesar’s. Royce O’Neale has provided his typical three-and-D presence to the Suns this season. Averaging 16.2 points plus rebounds per game, he’s cleared this line in 18 of 24 games. Devin Booker’s status is up in the air, but regardless of whether he plays, I do like O’Neale tonight. The Thunder’s elite defense takes away the pick and roll and forces the action outside - OKC allows spot up shooting at the fourth highest rate, and that’s O’Neale’s main function in the Suns offense. Any over against the Thunder can be scary, but O’Neale should be needed on the floor tonight.
FanDuel. Even with the uncertainty around Karl-Anthony Towns’ availability, I’m firing on this low OG Anunoby line. OG is averaging 21.2 points plus rebounds over his 30 minutes per game this season. Built up to 28 minutes on Sunday, I’d expect a 30-34 minute workload tonight. It’s a nice matchup against the Raptors who force action to spot up shooters (6th highest frequency, fifth most points allowed). Anunoby has traditionally played well against his former team, and I like that to continue tonight. OK up to over 19.5.
FanDuel. Wendell Carter Jr. has remained under this line in 15/23 games this season. Franz Wagner is now out with an injury, but Carter’s performance this season was largely without Paolo Banchero, who is available tonight. The Heat allow the eighth fewest points plus assists to opposing centers, despite playing at a high pace this season. With this being an NBA Cup game, I do expect the pace to slow down a bit (as we’d typically see in the playoffs). Carter has historically struggled against the Heat, and I don’t expect a usage uptick tonight.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in eight of 12 games this season. Coming off the worst shooting performance of his young career, I love this as a bounceback spot against the Pelicans non-existent defense. Yes, Stephon Castle is back, but I don’t see that as an impediment to Harper’s minutes off the bench (plus the Spurs are notoriously slow with working their players back from injury).













