DraftKings. I’m going to stay on Maxime Raynaud today - the rookie had the best game of his young career (29 points and 11 rebounds) on Thursday in this same matchup against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento will continue to be without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Drew Eubanks, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the Stanford product. Coming off a game with a 27% usage rate and 16 paint touches, Raynaud should feature prominently again tonight.
FanDuel. Riding the Cooper Flagg train. The number one pick has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games, with the lone miss against the Thunder. He’ll now face the 76ers who allow the eighth most at-rim points, and are well below average against transition and pick and roll initiators - Flagg’s most prominent playtypes. I’d bet this to over 19.5 points.
DraftKings. His role isn’t what it once was, but Ajay Mitchell is still hitting this line consistently. He’s over in eight of ten games when playing between 16 and 26 minutes. And this is a spot against the Timberwolves that don’t defend on the ball as well as years past.
Caesar’s. I’m continuing to buy Jaylon Tyson stock. He’s cleared this line in 8/13 games without either Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen (the former is out today), and remains the most consistent Cavs role player since entering the rotation and starting lineup. He gets a matchup against the Bulls again (21 points and 2 rebounds on Wednesday) - I expect him to continue to produce against a team that’s below average against Tyson’s strengths.
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud should find himself in a nice spot against the Trailblazers on Friday night. The Kings will be without Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and Drew Eubanks - the latter two leaving the team thin at center. Raynaud has shone when given the oppportunity, including clearing this line in five of his last seven games. The Blazers are below average both against points in the paint and rebounds allowed.
FanDuel. Tyler Kolek should find himself with a good sized workload for the Knicks tonight. Coming off his surprising performance in the NBA Cup Finals, I’m guessing the Knicks lean on their role players in the first leg of a back to back. Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson have been declared out, along with Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet.
DraftKings. Usage play on Donte DiVencenzo - who has cleared this line in four of six games without Anthony Edwards. Without Mike Conley either, DDV will be relied on to run the offense. Good matchup against a Grizzlies defense that are a top five matchup for opposing point guards. I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. I’m continuing to key in on Jaylon Tyson. In his elevated role, he’s cleared this combined line in 12 of 16 games with at least 24 minutes played. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be in for another solid workload, as the Cavs will be without both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill. The Bulls play fast (third in pace) and allow plenty of rebounds (sixth most). Tyson thrived in this matchup earlier this season with 17 points and 7 rebounds in 31 minutes - I expect more of the same tonight.
DraftKings. It’s a tougher matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. The Spurs allow the seventh fewest points plus rebounds to opposing centers this season. Against teams in the top 20 of both points in the paint allowed and rebounds allowed (Spurs are 7th in both categories), Towns is under this line in six of nine games. It’s a very tough individual matchup against Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and when the former is on the court, Towns becomes a big time foul liability. I’d bet this down to under 31.5.
Bet365 at -120. If you strip out the game he left early with an injury, Ja Morant is averaging more than 12 rebounds plus assists per game (30.4 minutes). Having come back from said injury and playing 25 minutes three days ago, I do think Morant should be in line for 30 minutes tonight. He’s cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games, and he’ll be facing the Clippers, who allow the fifth most rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Morant looked engaged in his first game back, and I’m banking on that to carry over today.
DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.
DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.
DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.
DraftKings. This should be a nice spot for Coby White, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Bulls will be without both Ayo Donsunmu and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt, which should bump White’s usage even more. The Hornets struggle defensively on the perimeter, and White should benefit both as a pick and roll imitator, and on the fastbreak.
DraftKings. Back to the Jaylon Tyson well we go. The sophomore has cleared this line in eleven of fourteen games when playing at least 24 minutes, and 8/9 without Jarrett Allen. With Allen and Sam Merrill remaining out, Tyson should continue to see a strong minutes floor tonight. It’s a soft matchup against the Wizards (for everyone on the Cavaliers), and one that should be played at a breakneck pace, with both teams in the top ten of tempo.