Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. Of the Spurs three primary offensive options, De’Aaron Fox might have drawn the short straw in this matchup against the Timberwolves, with Jaden McDaniels checking the Spurs point guard. Fox has failed to put up even 20 combined points, rebounds and assists in either game this series (albeit with no fourth quarter minutes in Game 2). I’m expecting a stronger defensive effort from the Timberwolves tonight, and for Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle to lead the charge. Playable down to under 26.5.
DraftKings. There was more positive news than most expected with OG Anunoby today, but I personally don’t think he suits up for Game 3. Even if he does, I still love this line for Mikal Bridges, who has re-emerged for the Knicks. The Knicks wing has recorded 17 and 18 points over the last two games, and has generally looked much more confident within the Knicks offense. The Sixers are undoubtedly going to adjust their coverages on Jalen Brunson, and with the uncertainty around Anunoby and Joel Embiid’s availability (which could cap Karl-Anthony Towns’ upside), all signs are pointing up for Bridges. I’d confidently bet this at over 14.5 points as well.
DraftKings. Across 25 games with at least 24 minutes, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren averaged 28 combined points plus rebounds, and had a 72% success rate on this line. This is a solid matchup for Chet, where his height poses a mismatch offensively, and defensively he can float and crash the glass. I’d bet this to over 25.5.
Caesar’s. I’m buying into James Harden’s surge on the boards. After finishing the Raptors series with 24 rebounds over the final three games, Harden had 8 on 10 potentials in game 1 against the Pistons. Rebounding has been a point of emphasis for Cleveland since the middle of the Toronto series, and Harden noticeably has upped his willingness going from averaging seven potential rebounds over the first four playoff games to 11.8 over the last four. Look for Harden to continue to make waves on the glass in Game 2.
DraftKings. Going to hold my breath and fade Cade Cunningham tonight. The Cavs, whose pick and roll defense was top five in the regular season, did a solid job on the Pistons guard in Game 1, holding Cade to 6/19 shooting en route to a 23 point and 7 assist effort. The Cavs were able to trap/blitz Cade at the point of attack, forcing Detroit to use their secondary playmakers (and Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson have been meeting the moment). Dean Wade has the size to disrupt Cunningham (akin to Franz Wagner in the first round) - but unlike Orlando, Cleveland’s big men will help to stop the ball. Would bet this down to under 36.5.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper’s role has grown for the Spurs throughout these playoffs, as the rotation has shrunk. The rookie lead the Spurs bench with 28 minutes in Game 1, as San Antonio opted to play only 7 guys more than 10 minutes. Harper should once again be in line for a strong role, against a Timberwolves defense that makes you beat them on the ball. Look for the rookie to follow up his 17-point performance with another strong game tonight.
FanDuel. After a brutal stretch, Mikal Bridges came alive at the tail end of the Hawks series, and that spilled over into Game 1 against the Sixers. Bridges netted 17 points and 5 assists in 27 minutes, in an efficient Knicks blowout win in which he was not needed in the fourth quarter. His greatest utility, however, was on the defensive end, where he helped to lock down Tyrese Maxey. It’s evident that Bridges is a much bigger part of the gameplan in this series, and his confidence levels seem to be trending in the right direction. And it’s still very much a buy-low spot, as Bridges averaged 17.9 points plus assists per game when the Knicks starting five was fully healthy this season.
FanDuel. Jalen Duren struggled mightily against the Magic, averaging 20 combined points plus rebounds. It was a brutal matchup for the big man, one I’m sure he (and the Pistons as a whole) are happy to be done with. Now, Duren will face a Cavs team he’s had much more success against. And let’s not forget, the Pistons center averaged 30 points plus rebounds this season, so we’re getting a nice discount on this line. The Cavs defense excels at stopping ball-handlers (which Orlando did not) and Tobias Harris has a much tougher matchup in this series. I think Duren rebounds in this round (pun intended) - I have him projected around 29 points plus rebounds.
FanDuel. This is really just a numbers play for me. Donovan Mitchell has been at 4.8 rebounds or better per 36 minutes in the regular season each of the last three seasons. He’s cleared this line in five of six games this series, and 17/22 of playoff games with 30+ minutes over the last three seasons. Rebound stats can be variable - but I like the notion of an effort stat for a star player, at home, in a close out game, especially at plus odds.
Caesar’s. Jarrett Allen has remained under this line in all six games this series in regulation. He’s seen his minutes dwindle, as the Cavs have employed more small lineups in crucial situations. And if the Raptors continue to run lineups with a front line of Scottie Barnes and Collins Murray-Boyles, look for the Cavs to counter without their center.
DraftKings. I’m riding the wave with Collins Murray-Boyles. The Raptors rookie has cleared this points line in five of six games this series, and has been the most consistent of the Raptors role players. With Brandon Ingram doubtful and Jakob Poeltl largely ineffective, CMB should see his minutes push past 30 once again (he had 35 regulation minutes in Game 6). Leading the Raptors in paint touches, and third in usage sans Ingram, look for CMB to continue his postseason surge.
DraftKings. Maybe the only player on the Magic who performed above expectations in Game 6 was Tristan da Silva. The forward provided a bit of a spark off the bench with 10 points and 6 boards in a series-high 23 minutes. Da Silva was actually a starter for the Magic without Franz Wagner for most of the season, only being replaced in the playoffs by Jamal Cain. With the Magic struggling mightily to score, I see them turning more to da Silva, and potentially away from Cain. This bet is a bit variable, because it comes down to a role player’s minutes projection in a game 7, but in 18-22 minutes, I have da Silva closer to 11 combined points plus rebounds.
FanDuel. Last offseason, Duncan Robinson was brought to this Pistons team to space the floor with his elite three point shooting. In this series, he’s matched his regular season average of 41% from downtown, while clearing this line in 5/6 games, on seven attempts per contest. The volume is similar to his regular season output, in comparable minutes - but the kicker for Game 7 is that I expect more playing time for the sharpshooter. The Pistons shortened their rotations in Game 6, as they’ve received minimal bench contributions in this series, especially on the wing. And despite the Magic’s stout regular season numbers against catch and shoot oppportunities, Robinson is still averaging 5.2 open looks per game. I love the value at plus odds.
FanDuel. VJ Edgecombe leads the 76ers in total rebounds these playoffs, averaging 7.0 per game, and clearing this line in four of six games. It’s a great matchup for the rookie as the Celtics shoot a ton of three-pointers, which typically produce longer rebound chances, a plus for wings, such as Edgecombe. VJ is also not typically matched up defensively against Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, leaving him free to crash. Look for the rookie to contribute on the glass in Game 7.