DraftKings. Jarace Walker has emerged of late for the stumbling Pacers, clearing this line in eight of his last ten games. This is an excellent matchup for his play style, as Toronto is allowing the fifth most points to spot up shooters. With Walker’s continued development paramount for the tanking Pacers, look for the Houston product to clear this line in his third straight game.
DraftKings. Payton Pritchard has failed to clear this combined line in 22 of 30 games this season, against teams outside of the bottom 10 in spot-up shooting defense, when he plays with Jaylen Brown. The Knicks rank 9th in that category, and Pritchard has struggled to find success against them in both matchups (19 and 17 PRA). This game profiles to be a slow, grind-it-out type matchup, and one where I expect Jaylen Brown to look to take over.
FanDuel. Devin Carter has come out from the shadows to play a key piece in the Kings rotation. The former first round pick is coming off back-to-back 20+ PRA games for the Kings, and should be poised for an even larger role tonight, with Malik Monk, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, DeAndre Hunter and Keegan Murray all ruled out. Look for another all-around performance from Carter. I’d bet this up to over 18.5.
DraftKings. In his first three games this season, Ty Jerome has accrued 26, 27 and 35 points plus assists, while being limited to 20 minutes per contest. Incurring at least a 30% usage rate each game, I love this trend to continue, even with Jerome’s minutes continuing to be limited. The Blazers rank 7th in pace, so there should be an uptick in possessions today - and Jerome will be fresh after sitting out the first leg of the back to back (and I don’t expect Scottie Pippen Jr. to play tonight).
FanDuel. Gui Santos has cleared this points line in 6/7 games in which he’s played at least 22 minutes. Coming off an 18-point performance in which he lead the Warriors with 36 minutes, the spark-plus forward is currently atop of Steve Kerr’s rotation (without Steph Curry). This should serve as a solid spot for him to get out in transition (Lakers are 21st against the playtype). As long as he can avoid foul trouble (not always a given with him), I like Santos to clear this points line for the sixth straight game.
DraftKings. Jabari Smith Jr. has cleared this line in 13/17 games this season, when facing an opponent that ranks outside the top 12 in both rebounds allowed and catch and shoot defense. The Thunder are 24th and 29th in those categories, respectively, and Jabari has put up 21 and 27 P+R against them this season. This should prove to be a softer matchup for the big forward, as compared to Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Look for Smith to serve as a complement to Kevin Durant today. I’d also bet this at over 13.5 points.
FanDuel. Will Riley is about to see all of the minutes he can handle in today’s tank-fest against the Nets. Look for the rookie to clear this line in his fourth consecutive game, in a spot that should favor him offensively.
FanDuel. This Landry Shamet points line is worth a bet - the backup guard has cleared this line in 10/14 games this season with at least 20 minutes, a mark he’s cleared in each of the last three games. Karl Anthony-Towns and Deuce McBride are out, and OG Anunoby is questionable - even if the latter plays, Shamet has a comfortable minutes floor tonight.
Caesar’s / DK. Averaging 10 points plus assists this season, this is an ideal opponent for Derrick White to rack up the peripheral stats. White has cleared this line in 13/20 games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in both rebounds and assists allowed, and 9/11 against teams in the bottom 12 of each. The Heat rank 22nd and 29th in assists and rebounds allowed, respectively, as White racked up 11 in both matchups.
DraftKings. I’m going to buy low on LeBron James’ points line. Despite clearing the 20-point mark in 19 of his last 24 contests, his points prop tonight is likely set a few points lower than his average due to Austin Reaves’ presence. However, the Lakers have conceded the Reaves’ minutes will be monitored again tonight (21 in his first game since Christmas the last time out), giving James enough runway to clear this total. It’s a solid matchup against the Sixers who have struggled with on-ball defense, and lack the size on the wing to match up with LBJ.
FanDuel. Amen Thompson has cleared this line in 25 of his last 32 games, averaging 32.3 combined points, rebounds and assists over that span. Even in a slower matchup against the Hornets, this line reads as too low for Thompson. The Hornets are a rim funnel for ball-handlers, allowing the 10th most points at the rim and eighth most points for pick and roll ball-handlers overall. And the Hornets allow the ninth most assists at the rim - all are helpful for how Thompson accrues his production. And the Rockets are implied at around 112 points, only 3.5 less than their average on the season. I don’t see the matchup justifying such a low line for the dynamic Thompson.
DraftKings. Brice Sensabaugh should be in for a sizable role for the Jazz tonight. With none of the new faces from the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade available to play tonight, the Jazz will likely be limited to only 8-9 rotation players tonight. The OSU product has capitalized on his opportunities of late, clearing this line in eight of his last eleven games with 20+ minutes. It’s a solid matchup against the Hawks who play at the league’s second fastest pace.
DraftKings. It’s very much an unknown what Dennis Schroder’s role with the Cavs will look like, but I’m going to take a stab on this line. Schroder cleared this total in 10/15 games he’s played this season with 16-24 minutes, despite playing alongside several high usage teammates on the Kings. It’s a more fluid offense on the Cavs, outside of Donovan Mitchell, and one that does lack playmaking depth tonight. His range of outcomes is significant, but I think this is worth a bet.
Caesar’s. Even if he doesn’t see an increase in his 20 minute restriction, this line is still too low for Ty Jerome. He’s coming off consecutive games against the Wolves with 27 and 33 PRA, both in games with a better than 30% usage rate. With the Grizzlies now without Jaren Jackson Jr., amongst others, and their new acquisitions likely not ready for their team debut, Jerome should once again have a ball-dominant role.
DraftKings. Despite averaging 26.5 PRA this season, Payton Pritchard is under this combined line in 19/25 games with both Jaylen Brown and Derrick White, and facing a defense that’s top 15 against spot up shooters. The Rockets rank second in that department, and are stout defensively across the board, ranking fourth. Houston allows the fourth fewest assists and fewest rebounds, while playing at the league’s fourth slowest pace. It’s a tough matchup for volume for virtually anyone, let alone Pritchard who relies on spot up shooting both for points and assists. I’d bet this down to under 24.5.