As long as the Spurs continue to dominate every opponent in the first quarter, we are going to continue playing the moneyline. San Antonio is now 11-2-2 to the first quarter ML since losing Game 1 of the Conference Semis to Minnesota. That includes the last two games vs. Thunder and all three games of the Finals. The Spurs average 31.4 points per first quarter, the second best in the NBA. They’ve won the first quarter of the Finals by 8, 9, and 11 points.

Yes, the Knicks are up 2-0, and yes, the Knicks have outplayed the Spurs. But what they haven't done is outscore the Spurs in the first quarter. San Antonio is 10-2-2 to the first-quarter money line since its Game 1 loss to Minnesota in the Conference Semis. The Spurs are also the second-highest-scoring first-quarter team in the NBA, averaging 31.4 PPG. Will the circus atmosphere help or hurt the Knicks early on? We don't know, but we do know the Spurs are the better first quarter team, which we've seen through two games.

For the first time this season, I am on record as saying the New York Knicks are going to win the NBA Title. Entering the Finals, you just didn't know if the 11-game win streak was a new Knicks team that is the best in basketball or an outlier based on the poor quality of opponents. Game 1 vs. the Spurs answered that. This version of the Knicks team is the best in basketball, and while I understand the "zig-zag" nature of this bounce-back spot for the Spurs, I also consider getting 6.5 a gift for a team that not only has won 12 straight, but also won by 22.7 PPG, while covering in 11 of them.

The Spurs' Dylan Harper has played 25+ minutes off the bench in three of the last four playoff games, and after his Game 1 performance (16 points, 8 boards), should see at least that, if not more, tonight. Over his last 11 games, Harper has posted 5+ rebounds in 9 of them, and the two he didn't were a game he left earlier with an injury and the game after, when he saw only 17 minutes with the injury. He's averaging 6.4 rebounds a game over those 11 games, and if you take those two games out, it's 7.2.

This is not just a play on the possible rust from the Knicks not playing in 9 days. The Spurs average 31.8 PPG in the first quarter this season, second-best behind the Miami Heat, and two full points better than the Knicks. The Spurs are also 8-2-2 in winning the first quarter since losing Game 1 to the Timberwolves in the Conference Semifinals.

Over the last nine games, Mikal Bridges is averaging 34.1 minutes a game, up from the 26.8 minutes in the first five postseason games. The extra minutes have resulted in Bridges averaging 18.7 points, 3.1 assists, and 4.0 rebounds a game (25.8 PRA) over this nine-game stretch, hitting the over in the PRA prop in all nine games. Against the Spurs this season, he's totaled 21, 21, and 32 PRA in fewer minutes than he's getting now.

We have been riding this trend all series. In the postseason, the team that lost the previous game and is then favored in the next game has a 21-7-1 record in winning the first quarter. In the Spurs-Thunder series, the previous game loser is 5-0-1 in winning the first quarter of the next game. After getting punched early in Game 6, this is a spot for OKC to come out fast in Game 7 at home and set the tone.

After starting off the series with 24 and 17 rebounds in the first two games, Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama has been held to 4, 8, 6, and 10 rebounds over the last four games. The Thunder are forcing him away from the rim, and even with two horrible shooting games by OKC, Wemby still hasn't had more than 10 boards. On the assist side, he's had one game with over 3 assists over the same four games, with three total in Games 5 and 6.

In this year's postseason, a team off a loss who is favored in the next contest is 20-7-1 winning the first quarter of the next game. In this particular series, it's 4-0-1 for the the team to rebound in the first. Victor Wembanyama usually wins the tip, so it starts with the Spurs, who come out to win the first quarter here.

With a safety net of Game 7, the Thunder do not need to force Jalen Williams to play. So if he does, he's healthy enough to go. He scored 26 in Game 1 and 22 and 19 in the two full games he played vs. the Suns in the first round. He game one vs. the Spurs, he took 25 shots, playing 37 minutes. If he suits up tonight, he should play enough minutes to get us 13 or more points.

Chet Holmgren has faced the Spurs eight times this season, averaging just 10.9 points per game, and has exceeded 13.5 points just twice, going for 14 and 17. In the Western Conference Finals, he's scored no more than 14 points and taken no more than 10 shots, averaging 8 shots per game. In 13 career games vs. Wemby and the Spurs, Holmgren is averaging 12.6 PPG.

In the three games vs. the Cavs in this series, Mikal Bridges is averaging 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists for a total of 26 PRA. Dating back to Game 6 vs. the Hawks, he has played an average of 34.1 minutes per game and scored 17+ in seven of the eight games, clearing his PRA in all eight contests.

The Spurs and Thunder are two of the top four teams in first-quarter scoring this season. The Spurs are second at 31.4, and the Thunder are fourth at 30.5. That's a combined 61.9. In this series, all three games have gone over the 53.5, with 54 in Game 1, 62 in Game 2, and 57 in Game 3. And that's with the Thunder not scoring at all for the first four minutes of the game on Friday. The final 3 games of the Spurs-Wolves series also went over the 1st-quarter total.

The Knicks nine-game postseason win streak has seen many players step up, including Mikal Bridges. Bridges is averaging 18.7 PPG over the last 7 postseason games, but also 3 assists and 3.9 rebounds, for a PRA average of 25.6 per game. He's gone over this prop total in all seven of them, while averaging over 33 min per game. Bridges has played 42 and 40 min in the first two games.

Both the Spurs and Thunder are two of the top four teams in first-quarter scoring this season, with the Spurs second at 31.4 PPG, and the Thunder fourth at 30.5 PPG. So far in this series, Game 1 saw 54 total points and Game 2 saw 62. The last three games of the Spurs-Wolves series also flew over 53.5.