David's Picks (1 Live)
Not easy fading Cade Cunningham, who leads all NBA players this postseason at 31.3 PPG. But most of that was vs. Orlando. In five games vs. Cleveland this season, including Game 1 on Tuesday, Cunningham has yet to go over 27.5, averaging "only" 19.4 PPG. The Cavs have held him to 33.7% shooting and 21.7% from beyond the arc. He had 23 points in 42 min of Game 1.
Over his last four playoff games, Spurs' Dylan Harper is averaging 27.5 minutes off the bench. He's hit 10+ points in four of his last five games and in 15 of his last 18 games, seeing extended minutes. In Game 1, he had 18 points on 13 FGA and is averaging 10 attempts a game over his last four games.
Historically, this is a good bounce-back spot. Dating back to post Covid in 2021, home favorites who lose Game 1 are 19-3 in the first quarter of Game 2. Against the spread, the number is 14-8 in favor of the bounce-back spot.
Yes, the line moved to 4.5 from the 3.5 it's been all postseason. We still like it at plus money, as Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 6.0 assists a game in the seven postseason games. He had 6 vs. the 76ers in Game 1 in only 20 minutes of action due to the blowout. Dating back to April 1, KAT is averaging 5.6 assists on 6.5 assist chances a game. The +113 price implies 47% chance of hitting, when he's gone over 4.5 in 7 of 11 games in this window (63.6%). Since the Knicks caught fire and started dominating (last 4 games), KAT has 32 assists.
De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.8 assists per game in the five-game series vs. Portland, hitting over 5.5 assists in four of the five games. This came on 10.8 assist chances per game in the series, the 14th-highest average of the first round. He also hit this in two of the final three games of the regular season, with the one he missed in the meaningless finale. Fox also averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the series, playing at least 33 minutes in all five games. The Wolves are not as good at defending the guards as Portland was during the season, so this might be a better matchup.
There was a definite difference in the 76ers' play once Embiid returned for Game 4. He averaged 28 PPG in the four games vs. Boston. While the Knicks' defense excelled overall this season (7th in rating, 5th in scoring), they were only 21st against opposing centers this season, allowing 22.7 PPG. In two games vs. the Knicks this season, Embiid averaged 32 PPG and 10.5 rebounds per game. Not apples to apples, but he scored 33 PPG vs. the Knicks in the first round in 2024, hitting over 26.5 in five of the six games.
We are going to keep taking Karl-Anthony Towns over 3.5 assists until the line moves, which, by the looks of the juice tonight, might be very soon. In addition to averaging 18.7 PPG and 11.3 rebounds in the 6 games vs. the Hawks, KAT became a playmaker, averaging 6.0 assists over the six games. He's had 4+ assists in five of the six games, with 26 combined in Games 4, 5, and 6. He hit this prop in the first 6 minutes of Game 6’s blowout. It's not just in the Hawks series. He averaged 6.5 assists in the final four games of the regular season. He's had 8.1 chances per game dating back to April 1.
Cleveland's James Harden has had 3+ threes made in four of the five games in the series, averaging 3.2 a game. He's throwing it up there an average of 7.8 attempts a game over the five games. Going further back to April 1, Harden has 3+ made threes in seven of his last nine games, with the only other miss being the final game of the regular season, when he only played 25 minutes in a game that meant nothing to the Cavs. Harden scores from deep when he generates isolation looks, which is Toronto's weakness (21st in the league).
With Orlando's Franz Wagner out for Game 5, the Magic shifted to a more isolation-based offense. He's out for Game 6 as well. More isolation for the Magic means less creation and driving to the hoop. They had 26% less drives in Game 5. Over 86% of Wendall Carter's points have come from no-dribble attempts. With fewer creations and driving, that's fewer opportunities for Carter. He scores when people drive and dish. Detroit defense (5th-fewest assists per made bucket allowed) is doing what it does and forcing isolation sets. Carter isn't afraid to launch, but he's 3-of-12 from 3 in series and was 27.8% post-All Star Break. Jalen Duren has struggled in the series, but handled the putbacks, which is less for Carter as well.
In addition to scoring 20.0 PPG in the series vs. Atlanta, Karl-Anthony Towns has become a playmaker, averaging 5.2 assists over the five games. He's had 4+ assists in four of the five games, with 16 combined in Games 4 and 5. And it's not just in the Hawks series. He averaged 6.5 assists per game in the final four games of the regular season. Add it all up, and you get 5.8 a game over the last 9 games (the start of April). The chances are there, as he's getting 5.8 assist chances a game this series and 7.6 chances per game dating back to April 1.
Collin Murray-Boyles has gone over his Points+ Rebounds prop in 10 of the last 11 games, clearing 20 points in seven of them. He's hit is prop in all four games this series, going for 18, 24, 30, and 25 P+R. The game he got 18? That was in 20 minutes. He's played 25+ minutes in the last three games and has hit the over in this prop in 8 of the last 9 in which he has reached 25 minutes.
The Pistons' offense has been just bad in this series, averaging 98.0 PPG (last), 15th in EFG pct (47.0), and last in offensive rating at 100.3. They have not cleared 105 in this series. The lowest team average for the entire regular season was 105.9 by the Brooklyn Nets, over 82 games. That’s how bad the Pistons have been. It’s a staggering difference for a Pistons offense that entered the postseason averaging 117.8 points per game (eighth in the NBA) and shot 48.5% from the field (third in the NBA). While Detroit should stay alive tonight, I do not think they will score 14 points above the series average.
The Thunder seem content to allow Dillon Brooks to shoot all night as long as Devin Booker and Jalen Green aren't beating them. In the three games of the series so far, Brooks has 66 shots, shooting 22, 23, and 21 times, and scoring 18, 30, and 33 points. His 22 shots per game are 5th among all players this postseason. He's attempting 9.3 shots from beyond the arc, most in the NBA postseason. During the regular season vs. the Thunder, Brooks hit this prop in three of four games, averaging 20 per game. It's win or season over in Phoenix tonight. A game they have to have that the champs do not. I expect Brooks to continue shooting and hit his over 18.5.
There’s Jalen Duren vs. the other 28 teams, and then there is Duren vs. the Magic. It’s no secret that the Pistons have struggled vs. Orlando’s defense this postseason, but look no further than Jalen Duren’s stats. In the three games of this series, he has 8, 11, and 8 (9 PPG), a far cry from his season avg of 19.5. And to get points, you need to shoot, which he isn't doing either. Shots: 4, 10, 10 (8/game), below season average of 11.5. And it’s not just a 3-game study. In 14 regular-season games vs. the Magic, he’s averaging 12.7 points per game. In last year’s postseason series vs. the Knicks, he was held to 11.3 in 6 games, averaging 6.7 shots per game.