Larry's Picks (1 Live)
The Heat play at the NBA's fastest pace and at home, they are surrendering a whopping 59.2 rebounds per game. I like the Raptors, who are six-point dogs, to be competitive in this matchup. When Toronto plays a close game, Barnes often skies over this rebound total. Barnes has grabbed double-digit rebounds in five of his past nine games.
Hornets rookie Sion James should see decent minutes Friday against a Bulls team that plays at the second-fastest pace. With LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton and others out for Charlotte, I bet James to score at least seven points. On Nov. 28 vs. Chicago, James scored nine points in 20 minutes.
The Spurs' Devin Vassell is coming off a no-show game at New Orleans, scoring five points in 27 minutes. But he has been incredibly consistent this season, always bouncing back from a low-scoring performance with at least 15 points. This is a good matchup for Vassell as the Lakers rank bottom-5 against spot-up shooters. Vassell scored 15 against the Lakers earlier this season despite shooting 5 of 14. He has cleared this number in seven of his last nine overall and averages 17.0 ppg (on 45.7 percent shooting) on the road.
Magic leading scorer Franz Wagner (ankle) is out, and Paolo Banchero remains on a minutes restriction. That should mean a huge role for Anthony Black in this NBA Cup quarterfinal. As it is, Black is averaging 30.8 minutes and 13.3 rebounds plus assists this month. The Heat play at the league's fastest pace, which should increase Black's opportunities. He posted eight rebounds and six assists vs. Miami in Friday's 106-105 home win. Black isn't shooting well so I like isolating his rebounds and assists rather than going PRA. I would also play Over 9.5 at even money or better.
Zaccharie Risacher is a totally different shooter at home: 50 percent from the field, 37.5 percent from deep. He averages 15.4 points at State Farm Arena. On Wednesday, Risacher faces a Clippers team he scored 11 against in LA. The Clippers have lost five in a row while allowing an average of 124.2 points. Look for Risacher to clear this prop total for the fourth time in five games.
Raptors star Scottie Barnes averaged 8.5 boards last month. Over the past four games, with R.J. Barrett sidelined by a knee injury, Barnes grabbed 38 rebounds (9.5 per game). Barrett remains out and I bet Barnes to get at least eight boards Tuesday against visiting Portland. His minutes increased slightly over that four-game span too. The Trail Blazers play at the third-fastest pace, which should only increase Barnes' opportunities.
PJ Washington has cleared this number in only two of his last 10 games, and for the season he's shooting 30.5 percent from deep. But the Knicks are a great matchup for spot-up shooters. They're allowing 15.4 made 3-pointers per game (second-most), the third-highest percentage from deep (39.4) and the most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Despite his slump, Washington is still averaging 4.6 attempts from deep this month. Look for him to take at least five treys Wednesday and drain at least two.
The Grizzlies won't have Ja Morant (calf) or Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) when they visit the Spurs on Tuesday. That should mean substantial minutes for Vince Williams Jr. He's played at least 24 minutes in three straight games, averaging nine potential assists in that span. He finished those games with six, two and five actual assists. While he's unlikely to start, Williams will have the advantage of facing a San Antonio team without Victor Wembanyama.
Power forwards facing the Knicks this season have routinely been shooting a lot of 3-pointers. That works well for former Knick Julius Randle, who is shooting 43.2 percent from deep. With Anthony Edwards expected to return for Minnesota, Randle should get some spot-up looks from beyond the arc. I bet him to make at least two for the fifth time this season.
Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga averages 7.1 rebounds. He's played two games without Al Horford, who will be rested Tuesday night. In those games, Kuminga pulled down eight and 10 rebounds. The visiting Suns own an NBA-low defensive rebound rate (61.4 percent) on the road. Look for Kuminga to grab at least six boards. I would play this to -150.
Lu Dort has gone Under this prop total in six of seven road playoff games. He also had dramatic home-road splits during the regular season, as he made 1.2 fewer 3-pointers per game away from OKC. From deep, Dort shot 9.4 percent worse on the road (35.2 compared to 44.6 at home). Dort's main job is defense. While his minutes are secure, I bet him to score eight or fewer points in Game 3 on Wednesday.
Many are expecting a down game from Tyrese Haliburton in a potential Thunder blowout. While I'm expecting him to struggle to score, I bet him to grab at least five rebounds for the seventh time in his last 10 playoff games. During the regular season, OKC gave up the fourth-most rebounds to opposing point guards. The projected fast pace would mean more possessions and more opportunities for Haliburton to cash this bet.
Andrew Nembhard averaged 19.5 points in two regular-season meetings with OKC, as the Thunder successfully limited Tyrese Haliburton. Nembhard also has had three strong Game 1s in this postseason, scoring 17, 23 and 15 points. Dating to last season, Nembhard has excelled on the road in the playoffs. Many books have moved to 11.5; I would play it for a half-unit there.
Anthony Edwards was criticized for not shooting enough in Game 4, when he finished with just 16 points, six assists and four rebounds. Edwards' season likely will end Wednesday, and I don't think the superstar will go out quietly. He's had two monster games in this series already. Look for Edwards to play at least 40 minutes and clear this prop total.