Larry's Picks (1 Live)
There is optimism Rockets leading scorer Kevin Durant (knee) will play Tuesday, although he is listed as a gametime decision. Either way, I like Houston to bounce back. Houston allowed the Lakers to shoot 61 percent overall Sunday, with Luke Kennard going 5 for 5 from deep. The Rockets ranked sixth in defensive rating during the regular season, and it wasn't because of Durant. They'll adjust defensively and shoot better Tuesday.
Some of the Trail Blazers looked awed by the moment in Game 1, but not Scoot Henderson. He scored 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting and was only minus-3 in a game his team lost by 13. Henderson had the best plus-minus of any Portland starter. Henderson, the former No. 3 overall pick, averaged 14.2 points this season. Even though this is a tough defensive matchup, I expect him to play around 30 minutes and score at least 11 points.
Jayson Tatum grabbed 11 rebounds in Game 1, playing just 32 minutes because it was a blowout. Another Celtics' massacre is certainly a possibility. Otherwise, this line might be 10.5. Either way, I have to keep betting this prop. In his last eight games against teams not named Charlotte, Tatum has posted 11-plus rebounds each time. Philly gives up the 8th-most rebounds and remains without Joel Embiid. The 76ers are a far cry from the Hornets, who gave up the fewest rebounds per game.
This number has dropped to 9.5 at multiple books but I am also good going Over 10.5 at plus money. Nikola Jokic had 11 assists on 21 potential assists in Game 1, right in line with how he performed vs. Minnesota in the regular season. He is very comfortable facing Rudy Gobert and is happy to set up his teammates instead of bulling his way to the basket. Look for more of the same in Game 2.
Onyeka Okongwu (knee inflammation) participated in Monday's shootaround, a good sign for his availability in this critical Game 2. The Hawks desperately need him as they remain without Jock Landale. While Atlanta isn't going to slow down Karl-Anthony Towns, the Hawks can play faster than they did in Game 1. That should lead to more more production from their top two scorers, Jalen Johnson and Nickiel Alexander-Walker; they shot a combined 14 for 36 in Game 1. After they got outscored by 13 points at the foul line in the series opener, look for the Hawks to be much more aggressive Monday.
Raptors reserve Sandro Mamukelashvili grabbed eight rebounds in the Game 1 loss at Cleveland. He had two assists, a steal and zero turnovers. He was only minus-4 in a game his team lost by 13. With Jakob Poeltl struggling against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Toronto turned to Mamukelashvili and Collin Murray-Boyles for 20 minutes apiece. In the three regular-season meetings with the Cavs, Mamukelashvili grabbed six, five and nine rebounds. I like his chances Monday of getting to five rebounds at plus money.
With Immanuel Quickley sidelined again, Scottie Barnes is Toronto's best distributor. He had seven assists in Game 1 and we could see similar production in Game 2, especially with the Raptors likely to emphasize Brandon Ingram's scoring. With Toronto in desperation mode, look for Barnes to play 35 or more minutes and deliver a strong all-around game.
Portland didn't have to face Victor Wembanyama this season, so Game 1 could be a rude awakening. Wemby has been cleaning the glass very efficiently lately. And whenever he plays substantial minutes -- like he should Sunday -- he's been an effective distributor as well. Portland likes to play a fast pace, which should only increase Wemby's opportunities.
Paolo Banchero played a below-average 33 minutes in Friday's blowout win over Charlotte. If the Magic can keep this one competitive, he should play close to 40 minutes Sunday. Banchero has cleared this prop total in five straight matchups with Detroit, thanks in part to his ability to get to the foul line. Banchero also has been a bigger scorer on the road this season, averaging 23.0 points in 34.2 minutes.
Take away two games against the Hornets, and Jayson Tatum's rebounding numbers are even more eye-popping. He's grabbed 13, 13, 11, 18, 12, 12, and 11 boards in his last seven games against non-Charlotte teams. The Hornets give up the fewest rebounds in the NBA, while the 76ers surrender the eighth-most. Joel Embiid's absence should be another positive factor for this prop. Fully rested, Tatum should play 35-40 minutes.
Cam Johnson is averaging 17.8 points this month, and I like him to get off to a strong start vs. Minnesota in Game 1. He has cleared this prop total in eight of his last nine games. Yes, he was held scoreless by Minnesota on March 1, but his body of work lately has been impressive. Johnson has shot over 45 percent from deep since that game.
Gui Santos has been called underrated so often lately, it would be hard to give him that label anymore. The 23-year-old Brazilian has an all-around game combined with a high motor. He dished out five assists in the play-in win over the Clippers, and he had seven assists in his most recent matchup with Phoenix. After finishing a game-high plus-16 against the Clippers, Santos should start and play at least 30 minutes. I don't expect him to score as efficiently as he did Wednesday, but I like him to get at least three assists. I would also go Over 3.5 assists at plus money.
This is a good matchup for Hornets forward Brandon Miller, who had 25 points, eight assists and four rebounds in his most recent game against the Magic (March 19). He got in foul trouble in the OT play-in win over Miami but still finished with 23 points, five rebounds and five assists in 37 minutes. Look for close to 40 minutes Friday and another productive all-around game from the former No. 2 overall pick.
Forward Gui Santos will start for Golden State, and I like him to grab six or more rebounds at plus money. In his last two meetings with the Clippers, Santos collected seven rebounds (17 minutes) and 10 rebounds (31 minutes). Based on the personnel the Warriors are rolling with, look for the high-motor Santos to be active on the glass.