In this series, Karl-Anthony Towns has seen his shot attempts drop from 15 to 12 to 10 to five. He's not forcing anything; he's contributing with rebounding, defense and timely shots. Since the Spurs stopped guarding KAT with Victor Wembanyama, thus enabling Wemby to roam the paint more, KAT hasn't gotten the easy outside looks. He's also liable to get into foul trouble with Wemby driving at him in a must-win spot.
Stephon Castle played just 26 minutes in the Spurs' heartbreaking Game 4 loss. He got in foul trouble and shot 2 of 7 from the field. However, he made all eight of his foul shots and is shooting 85 percent from the free-throw line in this series. With San Antonio's season on the line Saturday, look for the team's second-leading scorer to play 30-plus minutes and score at least 16 points. He's 16-6 to this Over in the playoffs.
De'Aaron Fox has shot poorly in two of three games in this series, but he ended Game 3 on a high note, nailing the mid-range jumper that helped seal the Spurs' win. The Knicks are giving him great looks, both in the mid-range and from beyond the arc. With Stephon Castle having a big scoring performance in Game 3, look for Fox to pick up the scoring load in Game 4.
Mikal Bridges was a virtual no-show in Game 3, scoring two points in 29 minutes. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Knicks watched Jalen Brunson dribble too much in the loss, and coaches and players have stressed the need for better ball movement and cutting. Bridges is the Knicks' best cutter. Look for Bridges to be more involved and impactful as he clears this prop total for the 11th time in the past 13 games.
Rookie star Dylan Harper has grabbed six-plus rebounds in six straight games. He finished with nine boards in 32 minutes Monday, the second straight game in which he played 32 minutes. His leaping ability and quickness were on full display. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.
Jalen Brunson has failed to clear this prop total in six straight games. But the volume continues to be there against the Spurs, as he hoisted nine 3-point attempts in Game 1 and eight more in Game 2. In three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson averaged eight 3-point attempts. Brunson shoots better from beyond the arc at MSG and I like the nice plus-money on him to make three treys in Game 3.
Dylan Harper has arguably been the best of the Spurs' top three guards in this series. His minutes went from 28 in Game 1 to 32 on Friday; he finished a team-best plus-12 in the 105-104 loss. Stephon Castle tweaked his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and shot 5 of 14, though he continued to play excellent defense on Jalen Brunson. The Spurs can't afford to play all three guards at once given the Knicks' size on the wings, and so far the best pairing has been Harper and De'Aaron Fox. Look for Harper, who grew up in New Jersey as a diehard Knicks fan, to play 30-plus minutes and clear this combo line for the fifth straight time.
Jalen Brunson went 2 of 9 from beyond the arc in Game 1, including a couple misses that were halfway down. The volume should continue to be there due to Victor Wembanyama's presence inside. Brunson did not clear this prop total in any of the past five games, but he did it three out of four games vs. the 76ers. In the three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson hoisted 24 3-point tries, making 10. This is a matchup in which Brunson is more willing to let it fly.
Josh Hart finished plus-22 in the box score in Game 1 -- in only 27 minutes -- despite scoring just three points. His energy and hustle were obvious, as the 6-5 guard grabbed a whopping 15 rebounds. He has now collected 35 rebounds in the past three games. If Hart stays out of foul trouble, he should exceed 30 minutes and again be a force on the boards.
Dylan Harper suffered an adductor injury in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. He looks fully healthy now and has cleared this prop total in five straight games. Coach Mitch Johnson is catching heat for benching Harper for De'Aaron Fox down the stretch of Game 1. The Spurs missed Harper's rebounding and playmaking. I'm expecting 30 minutes for the star rookie in a must-win Game 2. Look for Harper to grab five-plus rebounds for the 10th time in his last 12 playoff games.
Jalen Brunson has thrived in playoff series openers. This spring, he opened with 28 against the Hawks, 35 vs. the 76ers and 38 against the Cavaliers. While Stephon Castle is an elite point-of-attack defender and Victor Wembanyama will be lurking in the paint, Brunson has a dizzying array of moves and uncommon mid-range ability. Since late March, Brunson has played 35-plus minutes 16 times. He's cleared this prop total in 14 of those. Look for about 40 minutes from Brunson in Game 1.
The Spurs had three days off to re-set after their epic Game 7 win in Oklahoma City. I still question whether they can muster the same focus and urgency they showed in dethroning the defending champs. Mitchell Robinson (finger) is expected to play; he and OG Anunoby will be critical to the Knicks' defense on Victor Wembanyama. New York won two of three regular-season meetings, losing by just two in San Antonio. While the Thunder (due to injury) lacked a second creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, New York can run its offense through Karl-Anthony Towns while letting Jalen Brunson play off the ball. I'm expecting Game 1 to come down to the wire, so I took the points.
Ever since his 12-minute cameo in Game 1, Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this prop total five straight times. That includes a pair of blowout losses in which the Thunder shot very poorly. Look for OKC to make more shots at home and for the underrated center to keep setting up his teammates.
After a scintillating Game 6 performance, I like 20-year-old rookie Dylan Harper to again be impactful in Game 7. He's a difference-maker who won't be awed by the moment. And given this is a winner-take-all game, Harper should play close to 30 minutes. In the only close game of the series, Harper played 47 minutes.
Thunder guard Cason Wallace has cleared this prop total in four of the five games in this series. The exception came when OKC got blown out and Wallace was relegated to 21 minutes. Lu Dort is playing fewer minutes, which means more opportunities for Wallace.