De'Aaron Fox averaged 20.2 points in the first playoff round, and I like him to be very productive in this matchup. He scored 18-plus three straight times to close the Portland series. Just as important, the Spurs gave Fox 34-plus minutes in every game. In three regular-season matchups with Minnesota, Fox put up 25 points twice (and 12 in the other matchup in which he shot 6 of 19). Look for the vet to start out hot in the Western Conference semis.
Mitchell Robinson averaged just 14 minutes against the Hawks, but he was still very effective, putting up an average of 11.8 points, assists and rebounds. Robinson figures to have a much more substantial role against Joel Embiid and Philly. Robinson also has the motivational angle, as it was Embiid who committed a flagrant foul against him in the 2024 playoffs, causing Robinson to miss a postseason game. With Embiid's knack for getting Karl-Anthony Towns into foul trouble, I love Robinson to play 20 or more minutes and clear this combo line with ease.
Although I like Toronto to keep Game 7 close, it's hard to ignore Evan Mobley's current form. He has poured in 49 points in the past two games, shooting 17 of 28 from the field. He's a 6-foot-11 matchup problem who should see massive minutes in Game 7. Mobley has cleared this prop total in all three Cavaliers' home games. With the Raptors doing everything they can to contain Cleveland's All-Star backcourt, look for Mobley to clear this prop total for the fifth time in the series.
Even if Brandon Ingram doesn’t play, I like the Raptors to keep it close and cover for the fifth straight time in this series. They might have won Game 5 in Cleveland had Scottie Barnes not gotten hurt. The emergence of rookie Collin Murray-Boyles (15.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 66.1 percent shooting in this series) has given Toronto the weapons it needs to go toe-to-toe with the Cavs. Cleveland probably advances but this is too many points.
With their season on the line, the Pistons played Ausar Thompson 36 and 37 minutes the past two games. He responded with 15 and 10 rebounds, not to mention a total of 12 assists, six blocks and six steals. Thompson's athleticism, hustle and energy are off the charts. For Game 7, I'm expecting a ton of missed shots in what projects as another defensive grinder, giving Thompson plenty of opportunities to grab eight rebounds. I would also go Over 8.5 at plus money.
Brandon Ingram is doubtful, and Scottie Barnes will play through a quad injury. That injury severely affected Barnes in Game 5; he scored 14 points before getting hurt, then went 0 for 6 with three points the rest of the way. RJ Barrett continues to play nearly 40 minutes and produce. Contract-extension eligible this offseason, Barrett is proving his worth. He's averaging 24.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists in the series. With Toronto facing elimination, look for Barrett to be very aggressive offensively yet again.
Pistons all-world defender Ausar Thompson has played 32 or more minutes in three straight games and is coming off an incredible all-around performance: 15 rebounds, six assists, five steals and two blocks (not to mention six points). The 23-year-old has recorded seven, eight, eight, nine and 15 boards in this series. Fellow starter Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable for Game 6. He's averaging 7.6 rebounds in this series, so his potential absence (or if he's limited) would put even more of a rebounding burden on Thompson. I would also play this Over 7.5 at even money or better.
With Minnesota's rotation shortened due to injury, Naz Reid should play 25-plus minutes in Game 6. He's had three games in this series with 24-plus minutes, grabbing nine, nine and eight rebounds. At home, Reid averaged 7.3 rebounds this season compared to 5.2 boards on the road. Reid shot 50 percent over the past two games after a slow start to the series. Look for Timberwolves coach Chris Finch to trust the six-year vet with good minutes in Game 6.
The Knicks turned around this series, in part, by letting Karl-Anthony Towns have the ball more. At 7 feet, Towns is an excellent playmaker who can see clearly over his defender. He dished out 10 assists in Game 4, six assists in Game 5. He has cleared this prop total in four of the five playoff games. In addition, he had six assists when the Knicks visited Atlanta on April 6 and snapped the Hawks' 13-game home won streak. The Knicks' tweaking their offensive approach is working for Jalen Brunson too, so there's no reason to change anything Thursday.
With Kevin Durant sidelined again, Jabari Smith Jr. should see another 40 minutes of action. He's averaging 42 minutes in the series (albeit one game went to OT) and has taken at least 14 shots in each. The Rockets need offense without their scoring leader. Look for the 22-year-old Smith to stay aggressive in this must-win spot.
RJ Barrett is averaging 24.3 points and 36.8 minutes in this series -- both second on the team behind Scottie Barnes. Barrett is getting so many minutes because he's playing high-level defense, something he has not always done in the past. Barrett is up for an extension this offseason; he's proving his value against Cleveland. He's also benefitting from the Cavs putting their top two defenders, Dean Wade and Evan Mobley, on Brandon Ingram and Barnes. With Barrett shooting 55.2 percent in this series and not hesitating to let it fly, I bet him to get 20-plus points Wednesday.
The home team has won and covered every game in this series, but I like Toronto’s recent adjustments. The Raptors’ defensive length and discipline have become a problem for the Cavs’ All-Star backcourt. Cleveland wins but this is too many points.
The Magic won Game 4 by six points, and Anthony Black still finished minus-19 in the box score. He's been terrible in this series, shooting 6 of 23. Black only got 18 minutes in Game 4 despite Franz Wagner exiting. Even with Wagner's minutes available, I'm expecting Jamal Cain and Tristan da Silva to soak up most of those, leaving Black at around 20 minutes. Black hasn't been the same since returning April 6 from an abdominal strain. In that span he has scored in double figures three times in 10 games.
This has been a tough series for second-year Trail Blazers center Donovan Clingan; he shot 2 of 10 in 14 minutes in Game 4. Veteran Robert Williams III is playing well and getting more time due to Clingan's struggles. "Time Lord" scored 11 in each of the first three games before finishing with four points Sunday. With Williams expected to play about 25 minutes, I love his chances of scoring seven-plus points.
Hawks star Jalen Johnson took just 12 shots in Game 4, scoring 14 points in a 16-point loss. Look for Johnson to be far more aggressive in Game 5 -- akin to Games 1 and 3 when he took 19 shots apiece and averaged 23.5 points. This is not an easy matchup for Johnson, facing Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, but I like him to get there on volume and free throws and an increased willingness to let it fly from deep.