1 Expert Pick
Paul George is 26 of 46 from beyond the arc this postseason. ...
If the Lakers have any chance in game one they are going to need Austin Reaves to play at a high level. During the three meetings Reaves played against the Thunder in the regular season his points scored ranged from 13 to 16 points. Reaves will have to carry a bigger burden without Luka, and I do believe with the Thunder having a big lead will lead to less intensity on the defensive side of the floor. We saw this several games in round one against Phoenix where Dillon Brooks flourished in second halves. Look for Reaves to benefit and clear his points prop.
Chet Holmgren pulled down 10 boards in each of his final two regular-season meetings with the Lakers. In one of those he only played 22 minutes. With LA expected to struggle offensively in Game 1, I like Holmgren to control the glass and grab at least nine boards. I would also go Over 9.5 at plus money.
James Harden has been underwhelming so far this postseason, which has been a reoccurring theme for him throughout his career. With that being said, this is simply too low of a line for Harden who averaged just shy of 37 PRA in the regular season. Harden is playing heavy minutes and this number is much closer to his floor than his ceiling, even in a tough matchup.
Detroit enters this series riding a wave of confidence after mounting a historic 3-1 comeback against the Orlando Magic. The atmosphere at Little Caesars Arena will likely be electric and intimidating for Cleveland, particularly since home-court advantage proved decisive in every game of the Cavaliers' first-round series. The Pistons have adopted a no-nonsense, physical defensive approach reminiscent of the franchise’s famed "Bad Boys" era—a gritty identity that tends to succeed in the postseason, especially when referees allow more physicality in the paint. After dropping Game 1 at home against the Magic, Detroit will be super focused in this spot. My model projects the Pistons as 6.7-point favorites, so with the line set at -3, this presents a strong value opportunity.
Defensive whiz Ausar Thompson scored eight or fewer points in five of seven games vs. Orlando. However, he played 32-plus minutes in the final five games. That's critical because in the two most recent meetings with Cleveland, Thompson also played big minutes -- 31 and 36. He turned those minutes into 16 and 18 points. I'm expecting Detroit to force a substantial amount of turnovers, which should help Thompson score at least 10 points.
Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.
Three of the last four meetings between the Pistons and Cavaliers have stayed under the total, but one was as high as 239.5 and ended 114-110. We're looking at Game 1 set at 216.5. At the last meeting on March 3, the total was 228.5, and it was 113-109. In the regular season, that game stays under, but in the postseason, that game goes over. I like the Cavs to take the Pistons to the very end. I like the Cavs to run their normal game, and what you get is this Game 1 over.
FanDuel. Jalen Duren struggled mightily against the Magic, averaging 20 combined points plus rebounds. It was a brutal matchup for the big man, one I’m sure he (and the Pistons as a whole) are happy to be done with. Now, Duren will face a Cavs team he’s had much more success against. And let’s not forget, the Pistons center averaged 30 points plus rebounds this season, so we’re getting a nice discount on this line. The Cavs defense excels at stopping ball-handlers (which Orlando did not) and Tobias Harris has a much tougher matchup in this series. I think Duren rebounds in this round (pun intended) - I have him projected around 29 points plus rebounds.
The Cavaliers didn’t need to play Jarrett Allen huge minutes in the previous round because the Raptors didn’t have a ton of size at center. That’s certainly not the case with the Pistons, who have Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed. Allen missed one game against the Pistons this season and left another early because of injury. In the two full games that he played against them, he combined for 34 and 27 points and rebounds. I expect him to play around 30 minutes, which would put him in a favorable position to hit this over.
Tobias Harris scored 30 points in the Pistons’ Game 7 win over the Magic. It was the cherry on top of an excellent series that saw him average 21.6 points. After averaging 28 minutes and 10.5 shot attempts per game during the regular season, he has averaged 35 minutes and 17.3 shot attempts in the playoffs. As the clear second best scoring option behind Cade Cunningham, Harris could approach 20 points again.
This is a large number for Jaden McDaniels considering that Anthony Edwards is tentatively expected to suit up tonight. McDaniels has seen his usage surge without AD which is partially why this line is this high. There is also significant blowout risk with the Spurs checking in as double digit favorites tonight.
De’Aaron Fox averaged 6.8 assists per game in the five-game series vs. Portland, hitting over 5.5 assists in four of the five games. This came on 10.8 assist chances per game in the series, the 14th-highest average of the first round. He also hit this in two of the final three games of the regular season, with the one he missed in the meaningless finale. Fox also averaged 34.8 minutes per game in the series, playing at least 33 minutes in all five games. The Wolves are not as good at defending the guards as Portland was during the season, so this might be a better matchup.
While everyone concentrates on Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox has taken advantage. The five games vs. the Blazers, Fox scored no less than 17 points and scored 28 and 21 in the final two, shooting 50% on the series. In three games vs. the Timberwolves, Fox scored 25 points in two of them. The last six meetings with Mike Conley, Fox is averaging 28.3 ppg.
De'Aaron Fox averaged 20.2 points in the first playoff round, and I like him to be very productive in this matchup. He scored 18-plus three straight times to close the Portland series. Just as important, the Spurs gave Fox 34-plus minutes in every game. In three regular-season matchups with Minnesota, Fox put up 25 points twice (and 12 in the other matchup in which he shot 6 of 19). Look for the vet to start out hot in the Western Conference semis.