Jalen Brunson is going to score. He's had 30-plus in three of the four games so far. But he's doing more than that. His rebounds/assist totals the last three games has been 11, 10 and then 12 in Game 4. He played 44 minutes in Game 4. He’s had five boards in each of the last three games and is capable of 7-10 assists on any night.
Jose Alvarado’s minutes jumped for Game 4 to 16, and he responded with eight points and three assists. He was the only Knicks bench guy who brought any value, and he committed five fouls, but so I expect even more minutes. Alvarado scored seven points in Game 1 and on the season averaged a combined 10.8 P/A. The Spurs' defense won't pay added attention to him, so he can produce with opportunity.
Victor Wembanyama has 3-4 blocks in all four games this series. But it’s been three in three of those games. Wemby isn't camping on defense. He’s guarding guards and perimeter forwards, disrupting passing lanes with his long reach. That means he's not down low swatting shots all night. He has five steals this series, had 10 steals in the 7 games vs. OKC. He’s all over the place.
Stephon Castle played just 26 minutes in the Spurs' heartbreaking Game 4 loss. He got in foul trouble and shot 2 of 7 from the field. However, he made all eight of his foul shots and is shooting 85 percent from the free-throw line in this series. With San Antonio's season on the line Saturday, look for the team's second-leading scorer to play 30-plus minutes and score at least 16 points. He's 16-6 to this Over in the playoffs.
In this series, Karl-Anthony Towns has seen his shot attempts drop from 15 to 12 to 10 to five. He's not forcing anything; he's contributing with rebounding, defense and timely shots. Since the Spurs stopped guarding KAT with Victor Wembanyama, thus enabling Wemby to roam the paint more, KAT hasn't gotten the easy outside looks. He's also liable to get into foul trouble with Wemby driving at him in a must-win spot.
Victor Wembanyama is going to have a career game tonight and show that the Spurs are still in the series by scoring 35 points or more. He's 7’4” and unstoppable around the rim, and I think he's going to do a little more of that and less 3-point shooting as he did in Game 4 when the Spurs had a major collapse. We know he can do it because he had 41 against OKC in Game 1 of the West Finals. This will be a statement game for Wemby.
The Knicks are up 3-1 in the NBA Finals, but it could easily be the other way around. In all four games, the Spurs blew big leads, and there's never been a bigger lead blown in the NBA Finals than in Game 4 by the Spurs. They led by 29 points and lost. They scored 76 points in the first half but only 30 in the second half. No driving the basket, no post play, and Mitch Johnson was nowhere to be found as head coach. The Knicks are now in the heads of the Spurs. Doubt lingers. But the remedy is simple. Quit trying to play like the Celtics and get Victor Wembanyama inside the paint. He's 7’4” and unstoppable. Spurs at home.
FanDuel. I’m viewing this more of an opportunity stat than anything. Jose Alvarado was the unsung hero of Game 4, playing closing minutes down the stretch alongside fellow point guard Jalen Brunson. Alvarado, a three and D specialist, also offers ball-handling that both Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet do not - a key attribute against the Spurs front court pressure. By surpassing McBride in the pecking order, Alvarado has played 10+ minutes in each game this series, grabbing at least two boards in each game. He is also 7/7 this season against the Spurs when playing between 10-17 minutes. Mike Brown knows the Brunson/Alvarado minutes work - I see this as worth a bet at plus odds.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in each game of this series, while playing 32 minutes in each of the last three games. He’s been the Spurs most consistent offensive weapon, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play even more in a win-or-go home scenario for San Antonio. Bet this to over 21.5 with confidence.
Dylan Harper has scored at least 15 points in three of the four games against the Knicks. The one time he didn’t, he finished with 13 points on 5-for-18 shooting from the field. The last three games, he has played at least 32 minutes and attempted at least 12 shots in each of them. He is shooting 48.1% from the field in the series and shot 50.5% during the regular season, including 39.0% from 3 at home. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts likely, I like his chances of scoring at least 15 points.
Josh Hart dished out six assists in Game 4. The only game against the Spurs in which he hasn’t finished with at least five assists was in Game 2. Despite being limited to 18 minutes because of foul trouble in that game, he still recorded four assists. He is always looking for his teammates, and he swings the ball quickly to open shooters in the corners, leaving him in a favorable spot to record at least five assists again.
As long as the Spurs continue to dominate every opponent in the first quarter, we are going to continue playing the moneyline. San Antonio is now 11-2-2 to the first quarter ML since losing Game 1 of the Conference Semis to Minnesota. That includes the last two games vs. Thunder and all three games of the Finals. The Spurs average 31.4 points per first quarter, the second best in the NBA. They’ve won the first quarter of the Finals by 8, 9, and 11 points.
The Spurs' defense centered around slowing Jalen Brunson. Brunson kept shooting anyway, went 11-of-25, and the Knicks lost. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns finished just 4-of-10 for 11 points. He scored 21 and 18 in the opening two games. He also grabbed just eight rebounds after securing 12 and 13 in the opening games, and one assist after four assists in Games 1 and 2 as well. New York needs KAT to be productive in the paint again. It should be a Knicks priority.
Landry Shamet scored between 13 and 16 points in four straight playoff games before a tough three-point Game 3 (1-of-8). Still, he’s firing, and he’s likely to get overlooked by a Spurs defense that has to contend with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. His one make in Game 3 was a 3, and seven of his attempts came from the outside. He hit three 3’s in each of the first two games. He hit 3-4 3’s in three of the four games vs. the Cavaliers last round, too.
De’Aaron Fox had the offense in game two with twenty points. Game three he stayed aggressive with his shot, and shot fourteen attempts. Although he had an off shooting night, staying with it is what matters. For the second straight game he came up clutch in the fourth quarter with six points. Take Fox to clear his points prop for the second time in the NBA Finals.