Jalen Green is coming off two down games, but this is a tremendous matchup at home vs. Milwaukee. When Green faced the Bucks in Milwaukee on March 10, he scored 25 points on 10-of-20 shooting. The Suns have a couple key absences Saturday night, so Green should get plenty of opportunities to duplicate that performance.
FanDuel. Coming off of the best game of his career, I’m backing Justin Edwards to notch at least 14 points for the fourth time in five games. The Sixers face the Jazz, who remain dead last in the NBA against both spot up shooters and in transition. Riding high with confidence, I expect another strong performance from Edwards.
Quentin Grimes scored 27 points against the defensively challenged Kings on Thursday. He took 20 shot attempts, six of which came from behind the arc. With the 76ers missing so many key players, he has scored at least 23 points in five of his last eight games. The Jazz have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so I like Grimes to stay hot in the scoring department.
With the 76ers shorthanded, Justin Edwards started and averaged 29 minutes over the last five games. In three of them, he scored at least 19 points. That included a 32-point performance versus the Kings on Thursday. He is shooting 37.5% from behind the arc and the Jazz have allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league on their way to posting the second-worst defensive rating. Edwards has a great opportunity to score at least 15 points again.
Will the tanking Mavericks try at all is the main question because they are rested and pretty healthy. The Clippers have lost four straight, and it's the end of a three-game trip with Kawhi Leonard in question. With really not a ton to play for locked into the Play-In Tournament, I'd certainly just rest Kawhi if not close to 100% until get back home, but that's me. Trade acquisition Bennedict Mathurin is out again. He has been quite good since coming from Indiana, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Our model has L.A. by three and it projects Kawhi as playing.
The Houston Rockets ended the Atlanta Hawks double digit win streak in lopsided fashion yesterday winning 117-95. They still have one of the stronger home records in the NBA at 24-10, but they've shown to be vulnerable as of late. Grab the Heat in a flat spot as the Rockets play their fifth straight home game. They also lost to the Heat by ten points in late February.
The Hawks had their 11-game winning streak broken last night in a 117-95 loss at Houston. The Warriors play the fifth game of a six-game road trip after losing in Detroit last night, 115-101. The Warriors have lost seven of their last eight games. They have a whole roster on the injured list, including Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, Al Horford, and about 10 more guys. What's going on with Steve Kerr? All his players are hurt? He can't seem to win without Steph Curry. Golden State has gone 6-14 since Steph Curry was injured on January 30th. The Warriors have the 10th seed in the West, while the Hawks are a half-game from taking over the sixth seed in the East. Hawks to cover.
DraftKings. Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.2 points per game this season, but much of that damage was done early on. Sengun’s average has dropped to 18.3 points per game since January 1st, as the big man has admittedly played at less than 100%. Lining up against the Heat front line, Sengun will face a tough matchup against both Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware - overall, the Heat allow the 11th fewest points to opposing centers (despite playing at the league’s fastest pace). Sengun is actually under this line in 21 of his last 25 games against teams outside the bottom ten in points allowed to centers.
FanDuel. Without Jalen Johnson and his 10.4 rebounds per game available tonight, I expect Onyeka Okongwu to pick up the slack on the boards. The Warriors allow the tenth most boards, and Okongwu is over this line 17/28 (60%) against teams in the bottom half of rebounds allowed. And he’s over this line in 4/6 without Johnson.
A team that Desmond Bane is familiar with is the Los Angeles Lakers, from being in the Western Conference with the Memphis Grizzlies. He scored 22 points against them in the first matchup this year for Orlando. The Lakers may be on an eight game win streak, but they did struggle defensively in their prior game against Miami. Look for Bane to take advantage with Anthony Black out of the lineup. Play his over.
The Pelicans have one of the more crowded lineups to evaluate for props since DeJounte Murray's return. With Murray the Pelicans have three starters averaging over 20 points per game. The fourth leading scorer is Bey who quietly has exceeded his points prop in seven out of the last nine games. Ride his consistency once again against the Cavaliers.
DraftKings. Austin Reaves is under this line in 11/15 games played with both Luka Doncic and LeBron James since returning from his early season groin injury. With Luka playing at an MVP level, and LeBron also playing some of his best ball of the season, Reaves, who is dealing with hip soreness, has been the third wheel of late. The Magic make you beat them one-on-one and limit secondary opportunities and peripheral stats. With Reaves not getting as many on-ball opportunities, I’m loving the under here - playable to under 29.5.
We’re getting another discount on Scottie Barnes combo line and I think it’s worth taking once again considering this game projects to be competitive. Barnes is playing well and his decline in production can largely be attributed to blowouts, happenstance, and a variety of factors that don’t worry me. Barnes is due for some positive statistical regression and I would play this line up to 28.5.
Toronto’s Immanuel Quickley put up 22 points and four assists in his earlier matchup with Denver this season. And he didn’t shoot well. This should be a high-scoring, competitive game. Look for Quickley to play about 35 minutes and clear this prop total.
DraftKings. This is a sneaky spot for Aaron Gordon, who has cleared this line in 11/13 games with Nikola Jokic this season, when seeing at least 24 minutes of action. The minutes have been spotty, as Gordon has battled injuries all season, but he did play 35 minutes in a game against the Lakers last week - if this one stays close, he should see at least 30. And it’s a great spot for his skillset, as the Raptors rank 23rd against spot up opportunities.