DraftKings. I’m going to stay on Maxime Raynaud today - the rookie had the best game of his young career (29 points and 11 rebounds) on Thursday in this same matchup against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento will continue to be without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Drew Eubanks, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the Stanford product. Coming off a game with a 27% usage rate and 16 paint touches, Raynaud should feature prominently again tonight.
Guard depth will be an issue for the Grizzlies with Ja Morant (ankle) and Vince Williams Jr. (knee) out. Jaylen Wells has already been playing more lately, averaging 30 minutes over his last 11 games. During that stretch, he scored at least 15 points nine times. The Wizards have played at the sixth-fastest pace and have the worst defensive rating in the league, so I think Wells can stay hot in the scoring department and hit this over.
With Ja Morant (ankle) out Wednesday against the Timberwolves, Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 28 points. The game prior, he put up 31 points versus the Clippers. Morant will be out again Saturday, which should leave additional shot attempts for Jackson. The Wizards have played at the sixth-fastest pace and have the worst defensive rating in the league, which puts Jackson in a favorable position to hit this over at home.
No Ja Morant might even be a plus for the Grizzlies, who won again minus Ja on Wednesday at Minnesota. That's now 8-2 for Memphis in its last ten minus Morant, who has already been ruled out due to a bad ankle for tonight's game vs. the Wizards. The Griz has been extending margins lately, too, with recent wins by 23 over the Blazers and 18 over the Clippers. As for a go-to scorer, Jaren Jackson is now filling the role nicely after his 28-point effort vs. the T-wolves. Meanwhile, the Wiz look a bit more competent lately, but that usually doesn't last, following up a win at Indiana with a 25-point loss at San Antonio on Thursday, dropping to 4-21 this season. Play Grizzlies
Typically when a team has their star player ruled out, and are in a back to back spot we see a wild line move. That is not the case with the Celtics who will be without Jaylen Brown tonight. Just thirteen days ago they went into Toronto and won by thirteen. After winning eight straight games at home, the Raptors have now lost four straight games at home. Take the Celtics here
I recommend waiting to make sure Jaylen Brown is out, but he's doubtful. In a normal universe, that should mean out but it's the NBA so I trust nothing. Sometimes Joel Embiid goes from "corpse" to "probable" in like two hours. Don't get me started. Boston is in the second of a B2B and that's why not likely. Yeah, I guess it's hard making $40 million and playing basketball twice in 24 hours. Here is the world's tiniest violin. But I'm all about positivity today after that (quite ugly) Canes win. I don't think the Celtics win in Toronto without Brown. It's also one of those one-game trips that players despise.
FanDuel. Riding the Cooper Flagg train. The number one pick has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games, with the lone miss against the Thunder. He’ll now face the 76ers who allow the eighth most at-rim points, and are well below average against transition and pick and roll initiators - Flagg’s most prominent playtypes. I’d bet this to over 19.5 points.
DraftKings. His role isn’t what it once was, but Ajay Mitchell is still hitting this line consistently. He’s over in eight of ten games when playing between 16 and 26 minutes. And this is a spot against the Timberwolves that don’t defend on the ball as well as years past.
Trae Young returned for the Atlanta Hawks yesterday, and the team got off to a flat start defensively against the Charlotte Hornets. They did get back in the game but still lost by seven points. With Young resting, I believe that gives value for the Hawks against a Spurs team they had a smaller spread for in San Antonio. As we saw with the Knicks yesterday, this could be a flat spot for San Antonio off the NBA Cup in Las Vegas. Take Atlanta here plus the points.
Caesar’s. I’m continuing to buy Jaylon Tyson stock. He’s cleared this line in 8/13 games without either Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen (the former is out today), and remains the most consistent Cavs role player since entering the rotation and starting lineup. He gets a matchup against the Bulls again (21 points and 2 rebounds on Wednesday) - I expect him to continue to produce against a team that’s below average against Tyson’s strengths.
Following his strong performance in the NBA Cup championship game, Dylan Harper scored 24 points versus the Wizards on Thursday. In his 23 minutes, he shot 9-for-13 from the field. Since this is the second game of a back-to-back set, we could see the Spurs rest Victor Wembanyama. Even if he does play, he would likely be on a minutes restriction after logging just 17 minutes Thursday. The Hawks have played at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, so when you add it all together, I think Harper receives enough opportunities to reach this over.
First things first, as need to keep an eye on status of Donovan Mitchell, which is apparently up in the air as he deals with illness, though he did feel good enough to score 32 points in last night's loss to the Bulls. There's also a good chance he'll play, but the quick zig-zag/payback dynamics are nonetheless in place, and Cleveland has been getting improved efforts lately from G Jaylen Tyson (scored 21 last night), while Darius Garland also capable of pitching in with extra points. It's the psychology that appeals here, however, against Chicago in this zag-zag, as the Bulls haven't won back-to-back since October, and might be hard-pressed to replicate last night's 56% FG shooting. Play Cavs
Half-unit because I hate playing road teams, and I'm quite sure all those Knicks who sat out last night at Indiana will play, but I still think the team will be physically and mentally gassed from an incredibly hectic week. Maybe we get lucky and Jalen Brunson sits out. We cashed last night fading the Knicks, although Brunson won it brilliantly late. I refuse to mention a certain Sixers 7-foot former MVP with the initials JE, but he's questionable. Also the sun will rise in the East. Tell me something I don't know; I honestly don't even include that guy any longer in any prognostications it's so ridiculous. And the Sixers have been off since Sunday. So if rest means anything at all.
Tyrese Maxey will make his return after missing two games with an illness. Prior to the absence, he scored at least 28 points in four of his last five games. For the season, he is averaging 32.2 points per game and shooting 48.8% from the field on the road. In two meetings with the Knicks last season, Maxey scored 30 and 33 points. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable for the front end of this back-to-back set for the 76ers. If he sits, this over becomes even more appealing. Even if he plays, I still think Maxey can approach 30 points.
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud should find himself in a nice spot against the Trailblazers on Friday night. The Kings will be without Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and Drew Eubanks - the latter two leaving the team thin at center. Raynaud has shone when given the oppportunity, including clearing this line in five of his last seven games. The Blazers are below average both against points in the paint and rebounds allowed.