4 Expert Picks
Time For A TakeOver
We noted a recurring pattern in close-out, and ...
Pelicans Big Can't Follow Him To Top Of Arc
Will We Get A Shootout?
Past Picks
Devin Booker is in the midst of possibly his worst playoff series of his career against the Timberwolves. Booker is averaging 20/6/3 on 43/26% shooting splits. Not good for a legit MVP candidate and one of the NBA's premiere two guards. He's likely going to log 42-45 minutes tonight barring foul trouble and I expect him to be very aggressive. The Timberwolves have a great defense, but Booker is too good to be held down four consecutive games here. This number is too low.
This is a lot of juice but I am willing to lay it as KD has made a total of 3 three pointers so far in this series and has only attempted 9 total. KD and the Suns appear demoralized. Jaden McDaniels is playing tremendous defense on KD as well. Durant only made 3+ threes in 37% of his regular season games, meanwhile Durant has been held UNDER this line in seven consecutive games against the Wolves including four regular season matchups.
The Suns kept him down, bigtime, in the regular season but this is the time the biggest stars shine brightest and ANT has the Suns on the ropes and I expect him to an assassin tonight. KD is looking old and slow and the defense is sagging on this twitched up and dynamic scorer. He's also going to draw so much attention that I might dabble in his assist prop as well with a nice return available
This has turned into total one way traffic and with that first road win under their belts I don't think the Wolves let up here. MIN defensive prowess is a real problem for the Suns, and the Suns lack of quality and depth bigs who play big beyond their starting center if a problem, too. Wolves can run when they want and win in half court when they want and rotation up front leading to 50+ points in paint. ANT provides instant offense and Suns without Grayson get a lot more predictable to defend. MIN up 156-110 in paint in series. KD (3rd straight -20 game) can't take over by himself. MIN won't give away easy three-ball looks; Booker not getting enough shots off
Devin Booker has played 42 minutes in each of the last two games, and he should see another massive workload Sunday with Phoenix facing elimination. He dished out eight assists in Game 3, part of a season-long trend in which he's had more assists in home games (7.4 per game compared to 6.5 on the road). It was the Suns' best offensive performance in the series so far; they scored 109 points after failing to break 95 in the first two. Look for Booker to continue to be the primary distributor and go Over 6.5 assists.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without their two best players in Giannis and Damian Lillard who account for nearly 55 PPG, in addition to 36 FGA's. Brook Lopez is going to have to step up if the Bucks are to have a chance to survive. We know Indiana wants to get out and run and play out a break neck pace. I expect Lopez to get up a lot of shots and with Milwaukee likely playing from behind, it wouldn't surprise me to see him take 6+ threes in this game.
I project another high scoring affair here as these two meet for the 9th time this season. On 7 occasions they've combined for 233 or more points and had just 203 in the other. Sure, Game 3 went OT, but even at the end of regulation there were 222 points on the board. Bucks still lacking their best bigs to defend, Pacers are a bad defensive team, and MIL can slow the pace down occasionally, but not enough to hold this under 220. The 3 meetings in IND have produced 249, 272 and 250 points. Yeah, D rules in the playoffs, and unders have been prevalent, but not here. Pacers scored 121+ in 6 of 8 vs MIL;113+ in 7 of 8.
Spread results have been zig-zagging in this series which is a plus for Indiana in Sunday's Game 4. The Pacers won but didn't cover in Game 3, kicking themselves for letting the Bucks back into a game that Indy led 39-22 after the first quarter. Note the Pacers haven't suffered back-to-back spread defeats since March 1-3, almost two months ago, and not only are the Bucks slated to be minus Giannis (strained calf) again, now Dame Lillard is apparently out with an Achilles strain suffered in Game 3. Indy also now 6-2 SU this season vs. Milwaukee, which is just 18-21 since Doc Rivers took over in late January. Play Pacers
Getting this play out ASAP as Kawhi was just ruled out leaving Harden as the primary scorer. I believe this line is too high for him and if the same Dallas team that showed up in Game 3, Harden is unlikely to eclipse this combo line.
In a crucial game four for the LA Clippers, there is no doubt we will see a heightened effort. Where Dallas has grown is their ability to wear down the Clippers on the offensive end of the floor. In both games two and three they scored below ninety six points. That leaves the door open for one key run for a talented team like Dallas to push past the number late. Take Dallas on the spread.
We know he can drop 30 at any time and he started coming out of his fog in the second half of the last game and he's overdue for a big night from the floor and you can only defend him so long as the series goes on. I expect him to be more assertive tonight, get to the line more and challenge a beat up Kawhi inside and project him to score over 27 tonight