Quentin Grimes scored 27 points against the defensively challenged Kings on Thursday. He took 20 shot attempts, six of which came from behind the arc. With the 76ers missing so many key players, he has scored at least 23 points in five of his last eight games. The Jazz have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so I like Grimes to stay hot in the scoring department.
With the 76ers shorthanded, Justin Edwards started and averaged 29 minutes over the last five games. In three of them, he scored at least 19 points. That included a 32-point performance versus the Kings on Thursday. He is shooting 37.5% from behind the arc and the Jazz have allowed the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league on their way to posting the second-worst defensive rating. Edwards has a great opportunity to score at least 15 points again.
Despite Jayson Tatum returning, Baylor Scheierman has still averaged 29 minutes over the last six games. He grabbed at least five rebounds in each game and averaged 7.5 rebounds during the stretch. He could play even more Friday when the Celtics take on the tanking Grizzlies. Even if the Celtics don’t sit some of their starters, they could give them limited minutes, which would help Scheierman. The Grizzlies also don’t have much size, which has resulted in them allowing the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league over their last 10 games. I’ll pay the juice and take this over.
As the Jazz crank up their tanking efforts, Cody Williams has averaged 35 minutes over their last eight games. He came away with at least eight combined rebounds and assists in six of them. The two games that he didn’t, he combined for seven rebounds and assists in both of them. When he played the Bucks less than two weeks ago, he finished with 11 rebounds and two assists. The Bucks have allowed the third-most rebounds a night and the third-most assists a night in the NBA over their last 10 games, so I’ll take this over for Williams.
The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) for at least the next week. There were reports that they want to shut him down completely as they turn their attention toward the draft and next season. That shift in focus could mean more playing time for Ousmane Dieng, who has already averaged 28 minutes over his last seven games. He scored at least 11 points in five of them. The potential for around 30 minutes against a Jazz team that has the worst defensive rating in the league makes this over appealing.
Jalen Duren scored 36 points against the Wizards on Tuesday. Washington continues to be torched by big men. In the four games prior to Duren’s scoring outburst, they gave up 30 points to Kristaps Porzingis, 24 points to Neemias Queta, 19 points to Wendell Carter Jr. and 83 points to Bam Adebayo. With Cade Cunningham (lung) out, Duren should have an increased usage rate and shine against the Wizards again.
Brandon Ingram scored 36 and 34 points in his last two games. He did so against two very good defensive teams in the Suns and Pistons. He has a much easier opponent Wednesday in the Bulls, who play at the fourth-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. In his last two games against them, he scored 33 and 31 points. I like his chances of hitting this over.
Scoot Henderson has scored at least 16 points in four of his last five games. That included a 28-point performance against the tanking Pacers, who he will play again Wednesday. In their first meeting, he played 26 minutes and shot 10-for-15 from the field. Vit Krejci (calf) is out Wednesday, so Henderson has a great opportunity to play around 25 minutes again. With the Pacers having the worst defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games, Henderson could sail past this line.
Brandon Miller averages 21.7 points and 5.3 rebounds at home. That’s where he will face the Heat, who play at the fastest pace in the league. That has resulted in Miami ranking 20th in points allowed and 28th in rebounds allowed per game. When Miller faced them in Charlotte less than two weeks ago, he posted 22 points and 13 rebounds. He could blow past this line in their rematch.
Ausar Thompson made his return from an ankle injury to play 24 minutes against the Raptors on Sunday. It wasn’t an ideal matchup against a good defensive team with length, which contributed to him finishing with one rebound and three assists. For the season, he averages 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists in 26 minutes per game. Prior to his injury, Thompson posted at least eight rebounds and assists in 13 of 15 games. The Wizards allow the most rebounds per game and the second-most assists per game in the league, making this over appealing. The last time he faced them, Thompson recorded nine rebounds and three assists.
Matas Buzelis is averaging 5.6 rebounds per game for the season, but he has averaged 6.6 rebounds over 15 games since the trade deadline. In 12 of those games, he reached at least six rebounds. The Bulls have been playing him more, leaving him to average 31 minutes over those 15 games. The Bulls and the Grizzlies both rank inside the top-10 in the league in pace of play and the Grizzlies have allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game in the league over their last 10 games. With at least 30 minutes likely coming his way again, Buzelis has a great opportunity to grab at least six rebounds.
Gui Santos scored 20 points against the Knicks on Sunday. That marked the 14th time over his last 19 games that he scored at least 15 points. The Warriors have leaned heavily on Santos, leaving him to average 36 minutes over their last six games. During that stretch, he averaged 15.0 field goal attempts and 3.3 free throw attempts a night. The Wizards play at the sixth-fastest pace and have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, so Santos should have ample opportunities to score at least 15 points again.
Kyle Filipowski (rest) and Ace Bailey (concussion) will not play against the Kings. Even with those two in the fold lately, Brice Sensabaugh has scored at least 21 points in three straight games. In his last two games, he scored 29 and 31 points. The Kings have the third-worst defensive rating in the league, so with Sensabaugh likely to play around 30 minutes, he has the potential to hit this over.
The 76ers continue to play without Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Paul George and Kelly Oubre Jr. With those four out, Justin Edwards started each of the last two games. First, he scored 12 points over 29 minutes against a good defensive team in the Pistons. He followed that up with 19 points over 31 minutes against the Nets on Saturday. He was productive despite shooting a combined 0-for-5 from three in the two games. He is shooting 34.9% from deep for the season and the Trail Blazers have allowed the ninth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league over their last 10 games. I like Edwards’ chances of reaching at least 12 points again.
Darius Garland did not play Friday against the Bulls as the Clippers continue to hold him out for one game of back-to-back sets. He will return Saturday in what is a great matchup against the Kings, who have the third-worst defensive rating in the league. There is some blowout risk here, but Garland has scored at least 21 points in three straight games despite logging 26 or fewer minutes in two of them. He made 13 three-pointers over that span, which is noteworthy because the Kings allow the third-highest three-point shooting percentage. I won’t be surprised if Garland reaches at least 20 points again, let alone the 18 needed to hit this over.