Mike's Picks (1 Live)
Alperen Sengun has combined for at least 16 rebounds and assists in eight of his last 12 games. With Steven Adams (ankle) out for the season, there should be more rebounds available for Sengun moving forward. This game being played in Houston is noteworthy because he averages 10.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists at home, compared to 8.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists on the road. The last time he played the Celtics, he produced 10 rebounds and nine assists. Newly acquired Nikola Vucevic probably won’t be available for the Celtics on Wednesday, but even if he is, this is still a good spot for Sengun to reach this over.
Cooper Flagg has recorded a double-double in three of his last four games. Going back further, he has hauled in at least seven rebounds in nine of his last 12 games. This game will be played in Dallas, where he averages 6.9 rebounds. The Celtics don’t have a ton of size up front, which should afford Flagg with a lot of opportunities to hit this over.
Onyeka Okongwu (mouth) will miss his third straight game. That means we could see more small lineups for the Hawks. With him out for Saturday’s game against the Pacers, Jalen Johnson recorded 12 rebounds and 10 assists. Over his last six games, Johnson has combined for at least 21 rebounds and assists five times. These are the top two teams in the league in pace of play, which contributed to Johnson recording nine rebounds and 10 assists in their first meeting of the season. This is a big number, but I like his chances of hitting the over in this rematch.
Tre Johnson (ankle) will miss his third straight game for the Wizards. In the last two games without him, Carlton Carrington finished with six assists each. Going back further, Carrington has averaged 5.6 assists over his last 13 games. This game being played in Washington is important because he averages 5.0 assists at home, compared to 4.3 assists on the road. When he faced the Knicks in New York earlier this season, he dished out seven dimes. With a starting job likely in hand, Carrington is in a favorable spot to produce at least five assists again.
Paul George (suspension) is out, so Kelly Oubre Jr. should receive more scoring opportunities for the 76ers. With George out Saturday versus the Pelicans, Oubre scoring 19 points over 30 minutes. A key stat for this game is that Oubre is shooting 36.9% from behind the arc. The Clippers allow the sixth-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league, so Oubre could be a matchup problem for them.
Amen Thompson has recorded at least 14 combined rebounds and assists in six of his last eight games. He could have the ball in his hands even more Monday with Kevin Durant (ankle) out. Durant has missed two games this season and Thompson recorded at least 15 combined rebounds and assists in both of them. Also making this over appealing is that the Pacers allow the fourth-most rebounds per game in the league.
This is the third straight game that the Bulls will play the Heat. In total, they have already played each other three times this season. In each game, Ayo Dosunmu scored at least 23 points. The Bulls will be shorthanded again Sunday with Josh Giddey (hamstring), Tre Jones (hamstring) and Jalen Smith (calf) all out. In a matchup between two teams that rank inside the top four in the league in pace of play, look for Dosunmu to continue to thrive.
The Bulls aren’t expected to have much size for this game. Jalen Smith (calf) and Zach Collins (toe) are out, while Nikola Vucevic (rest) is listed as doubtful. That means we could see Patrick Williams and Lachlan Olbrich playing center. The Heat allow the second-most rebounds per game in the league, so someone on the Bulls will be in a good spot to rack up boards. I think that someone is Matas Buzelis, who had nine rebounds against them on Thursday despite Vucevic playing.
The Heat have ruled out Norman Powell (personal), Tyler Herro (ribs) and Davion Mitchell (shoulder) for this game. Herro and Mitchell didn’t play against the Bulls on Thursday, but Powell did. In that game, Jaime Jaquez Jr. recorded 35 combined points, rebounds and assists. Jaquez should receive added minutes and shot attempts in matchup between two of the top five teams in the league in pace of play. The over is the way to go here.
Ayo Dosunmu has scored exactly 23 points in both games against the Heat this season. He likes to attack the paint, which makes Miami a favorable matchup for him because they give up the seventh-most points in the paint per game in the league. Josh Giddey (hamstring), Tre Jones (hamstring) and Jalen Smith (calf) are all out for Saturday, while Coby White (calf) and Nikola Vucevic (rest) are listed as doubtful. Dosunmu should receive a lot of minutes and shot attempts, so he could certainly come out of this game with at least 20 points.
The Suns have played the last three games without Devin Booker (ankle) and Jalen Green (hamstring). In all three of those games, Dillon Brooks scored at least 26 points. Thursday, he scored 40 points against a Pistons team that has the second-best defensive rating in the league. It’s also worth noting that all three of those games were played in Phoenix, where Brooks averages 25.1 points per game. Booker will be out again, and even if Green returns, he would likely play limited minutes. Look for Brooks to continue scoring in bunches at home.
Jaylen Brown (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for this game. Payton Pritchard averages 16.7 points and 13.9 shot attempts per game for the season. However, over the three previous games that Brown has missed, Pritchard averaged 24.3 points and 22.3 shot attempts. Additional shot attempts against a Kings team that has the third-worst defensive rating in the league makes this over appealing.
Tyler Herro (ribs) and Davion Mitchell (shoulder) have yet to fully practice, so they should be out again Thursday. That will likely continue to leave more playing time for Pelle Larsson. Their recent absences have helped Larsson combine for at least eight rebounds and assists in five of his last six games. This is a great matchup against the Bulls, who allow the fifth-most assists per game in the league. The last time he faced them, Larsson recorded two rebounds and seven assists over 26 minutes. At plus odds, I like taking a chance on this over.
The Bulls continue to play without Tre Jones (hamstring). Ayo Dosunmu has scored at least 19 points in two of three games since Jones suffered his injury. This is the second game of a back-to-back set, and while Josh Giddey and Coby White are expected to play, their recent injuries might still prevent the Bulls from giving them both huge minutes. Dosunmu should log at least 25 minutes in a matchup between two teams that rank inside the top-five in the league in pace of play. He loves to attack the paint, which is a weakness of the Heat because they allow the sixth-most points in the paint per game. The last time he faced them, Dosunmu scored 23 points. Take this over.