Mike's Picks (1 Live)
Jaren Jackson Jr. is not a good rebounder for a player of his size. He is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game and has averaged fewer than 5.9 rebounds per game in all but one season of his career. This is not a favorable spot for him to rack up boards because the Clippers rank 11th in rebounds allowed per game. Jackson has already faced the Clippers two times this season and he didn’t register more than three rebounds in either game. I don’t play many unders, but I like this one.
Jakob Poeltl is averaging four fewer minutes per game than he did last season. Still, he has averaged 10.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. The Heat have a lot of size in Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware, so the Raptors might need Poeltl to play more in this matchup. He faced the Heat three times last season and combined for at least 20 points and rebounds in each of them. The Heat have played at the fastest pace and allowed the second-most rebounds per game in the league, so this over is appealing.
Anthony Edwards (foot) will not play in this game. When he sat out Friday against the Warriors, Julius Randle scored 27 points over 34 minutes. Edwards has missed five games this season. Over those five games, Randle averaged 26.6 points. Combine Edwards being out with the Kings having the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league and Randle has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
Trey Murphy III has scored at least 20 points in eight of his last 10 games. He is averaging 21.2 points per game for the season. The likely reason why his line has been set this low is that Zion Williamson (adductor) is trending towards playing. Jordan Poole is also back. While they will eat up some shot attempts, the Bulls have played at the second-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Murphy can still come away from this game with at least 20 points.
Kon Knueppel is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game for the season. He should play a lot Friday with LaMelo Ball, Collin Sexton and Tre Mann all out. Ball has missed eight games this season and Knueppel recorded at least five rebounds in six of them. The two times that he didn’t, he had four rebounds each against two good rebounding teams in the Nuggets and Thunder. The same can’t be said for the Bulls, who have allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league. When he played the Bulls a couple of weeks ago, he finished with five rebounds over 32 minutes. Despite the juice, I like this over.
Jarrett Allen (finger) and Sam Merrill (hand) will remain out for the Cavaliers. Jaylon Tyson has started each of the last eight games that they have missed. In that role, he combined for at least 21 points and rebounds seven times. Helping his cause was that he logged at least 31 minutes in six of those games. The Wizards have the worst defensive rating and have given up the most rebounds per game in the league, which puts Tyson in a favorable spot to remain productive.
Nikola Jokic has already faced the Kings three times this season. In those matchups, he scored 34, 35 and 44 points. With Domantas Sabonis (knee) out, the Kings are down to Maxime Raynaud, Drew Eubanks and Precious Achiuwa at center. Talk about a mismatch. Jokic comes with plenty of scoring upside, especially with the Nuggets playing without Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Christian Braun (ankle).
Bobby Portis feeds off the energy of his home crowd. He is averaging 13.1 points and shooting 54.0% from the field at home. On the road, he is averaging 9.1 points and shooting 37.4%. With regards to this prop, he has scored at least 13 points in each of his last six home games. Jericho Sims has started the last two games, but this isn’t a good matchup for him against a Celtics team that doesn’t have a ton of size up front. In a home game in which Portis could play added minutes, this over is appealing.
Luka Doncic has been terrific at home this season. He is averaging 38.1 points per game and shooting 50.2% from the field in Los Angeles. On the road, he has averaged 31.5 points and shot 43.4%. In nine home games, he has scored at least 33 points eight times. That included a 35-point performance versus the Spurs in November. In an important NBA Cup game in which starters should play a ton, Doncic has a favorable opportunity to hit this over.
The Heat are healthy for this game with Tyler Herro back from his toe injury. While his return might seem to hinder Norman Powell, Powell has scored at least 28 points in two of the three games that he has played with Herro. Powell just scored 28 points versus the Magic on Friday, although Herro sat out that matchup. Powell is averaging 24.8 points per game, so in an NBA Cup battle in which I think the starters play a ton of minutes, this over can still cash.
As the Pacers search for answers at center, they may have found their new starter in Jay Huff. He has started each of the last five games, averaging 24 minutes along the way. A good three-point shooter, he scored at least 11 points in four of those five games. This game being at home is helpful because he has shot 46.4% from the field and 41.4% from behind the arc there. In a matchup versus a Kings team that has the fifth-worst defensive rating, I like this over.
Luka Doncic will return after missing the last two games for the birth of his child. Prior to his absence, he had scored at least 33 points in seven straight games. LeBron James (foot/sciatica) is listed as questionable, but even if he plays, he has been more of a facilitator than a scorer this season. Over his last three games, he has scored a total of 31 points. With a hefty usage rate expected to come his way again, I like this over for Doncic.
The Hornets are going to be very shorthanded for this game, especially at guard. They have already ruled out LaMelo Ball (ankle), Collin Sexton (thigh) and Tre Mann (knee). That should leave a lot of minutes and shot attempts for Kon Knueppel, who is averaging 18.2 points per game for the season. The Nuggets are missing two of their better defenders in Christian Braun (ankle) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring), which also helps Knueppel’s chances of reaching this over.
Tyler Herro (toe) is listed as doubtful for this game after also sitting out Friday. With him back on the sidelines, Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored 16 points over 33 minutes in what was a difficult matchup against the Magic. Facing the Kings should be much easier, considering that they have the fifth-worst defensive rating in the league. Look for Jaquez to continue his scoring ways with Herro expected to be out.