Jose Alvarado’s minutes jumped for Game 4 to 16, and he responded with eight points and three assists. He was the only Knicks bench guy who brought any value, and he committed five fouls, but so I expect even more minutes. Alvarado scored seven points in Game 1 and on the season averaged a combined 10.8 P/A. The Spurs' defense won't pay added attention to him, so he can produce with opportunity.
Victor Wembanyama has 3-4 blocks in all four games this series. But it’s been three in three of those games. Wemby isn't camping on defense. He’s guarding guards and perimeter forwards, disrupting passing lanes with his long reach. That means he's not down low swatting shots all night. He has five steals this series, had 10 steals in the 7 games vs. OKC. He’s all over the place.
Jalen Brunson is going to score. He's had 30-plus in three of the four games so far. But he's doing more than that. His rebounds/assist totals the last three games has been 11, 10 and then 12 in Game 4. He played 44 minutes in Game 4. He’s had five boards in each of the last three games and is capable of 7-10 assists on any night.
Landry Shamet scored between 13 and 16 points in four straight playoff games before a tough three-point Game 3 (1-of-8). Still, he’s firing, and he’s likely to get overlooked by a Spurs defense that has to contend with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. His one make in Game 3 was a 3, and seven of his attempts came from the outside. He hit three 3’s in each of the first two games. He hit 3-4 3’s in three of the four games vs. the Cavaliers last round, too.
The Spurs' defense centered around slowing Jalen Brunson. Brunson kept shooting anyway, went 11-of-25, and the Knicks lost. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns finished just 4-of-10 for 11 points. He scored 21 and 18 in the opening two games. He also grabbed just eight rebounds after securing 12 and 13 in the opening games, and one assist after four assists in Games 1 and 2 as well. New York needs KAT to be productive in the paint again. It should be a Knicks priority.
The Knicks have a killer instinct and they’re not settling. This team is well-coached and focused. They haven’t lost a game in a month and a half. The Spurs match up talent-for-talent, but they’re also the youngest team to reach the NBA Finals in 50 years, which showed in the closing seconds of Game 2. Now they go to Madison Square Garden, first NBA Finals game in 26 years at the Mecca of Hoops. Offensively and defensively, the Knicks were tangibly better at home. I'll back the Knicks for the third straight time.
We know Josh Hart can score because he averaged 12 ppg on the season. But through two games this series he’s managed a scant three points on 1-of-9 shooting. The Knicks have still won both games. Hart’s role has been rebounding, defending and passing, and he’s done those things well. San Antonio has defended Hart well, and sometimes with Victor Wembanyama, more so Wemby can roam and be free to help. Foul trouble limited Hart's minutes too.
Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 21 and 18 points in the Knicks’ first two wins this series, but his points are still a wild card this series. The Spurs rank 31st in assists allowed to centers (players guarded by Victor Wembanyama pass). KAT has had four assists in both games this series. The last two series vs. Jarrett Allen and Wembanyama, he’s averaging 12.2 rpg with 13 boards in four of those games. His R/A totals have been 16 or higher in 10 of the last 14 playoff games, including both this series.
Certainly the Spurs are going to come out with more fire here, but we’ve seen this story before in Knicks games, and they answered the bell in Game 2’s vs the Sixers and Cavaliers. The Knicks have been the most-impressive team of the postseason. They swept through the second and third rounds. In Game 1, the teams traded roundhouse rights. There were lots of runs in this game, and the Knicks made the last one. New York is now 3-1 vs. the Spurs this season, and the lone Spurs win was by two points.
Julian Champagnie scored 16 points in Game 1. He also hit 5 3’s, shooting 5-of-10. At this point it’s almost a waste to pick him to do anything scoring-wise except hit 3’s. The last four playoff games, Champagnie is 17-of-34 on 3’s (50%). In four of the last five games, he’s attempted two or fewer two-point shots. Champagnie averages 11.1 ppg on the season but scored 20-plus in two of the final three games vs. the Thunder.
Josh Hart had 15 rebounds in Game 1, but also had six assists. His rebound and assist totals were 17 and 14 the previous two games as well. He’s in a good spot to get a lot of rebounds. Assists he’s had between 5 and 7 of them in the last four games. He was only 1-of-5 shooting, deferred to the stars. The prior game he was 2-for-5. This is his role down the stretch.
Knicks score-first PG Jalen Brunson has registered at least six assists in eight of the Knicks’ last 10 games. He overall trended higher than that all season (6.8), and trended even higher against the Spurs, with 7, 8 and 8 assists. I think Josh Hart is going to have issues against Stephon Castle; Hart’s potential assists go to Brunson.
Victor Wembanyama hasn’t had 12 rebounds in five straight games. Prior to that, though, he’d had at least 14 in seven of nine. I’ll lean on that latter trend. He had 13 rebounds in two of three regular-season meetings with Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks. He had 24 and 15 boards in Game 1 of the last two series.
In three games vs. the Knicks in the regular season, Julian Champagnie scored just three points in two of them. In the other, a Spurs win, he scored a season-high 36 points. Champagnie averages 11.4 ppg on the season but scored 20-plus in two of the final three games vs. the Thunder. Champagnie can have another big game if he stays on the offensive.
I wanted to back Stephon Castle in rebounds, but the 5.5 line is tricky since he’s stopped at five boards in four of the six games. Assists, he’s had anywhere from 6 to 11 this series. Scoring, he’s had 24- and 25-point games, and 13- and 14-point efforts. But put it all together, and he’s contributing. His PRA totals have topped 31 in four of the six games. His PRA totals in the three games at OKC are 31, 35 and 38.








