The PRA totals for Donovan Clingan in Games 2 and 3 when Victor Wembanyama didn’t play: 19 and 18. The PRA totals in Games 1 and 4 when Wemby did play, either fully or even partially: 11 and 11. This is a guy who averaged 23.7 P/R in 77 games this season. He’s outmatched here. The Blazers know it. He played just 14 minutes in Game 4, down from 20 minutes in Game 3 and 24 in Game 2.
In the four games this series vs. Atlanta, Knicks forward OG Anunoby has brought in between 8-10 rebounds. In three regular-season games vs. the Hawks, he secured 10, 10 and 5 rebounds. He averages 5.5 rpg on the season but has been far better vs. the Hawks. Anunoby isn’t the exception. Every power forward has found success on the glass vs. Atlanta. The Hawks allow 10.7 rebounds per game to PFs on the season.
Kelly Oubre was the big statistical loser with Joel Embiid back on the court for the 76ers. After scoring 10, 12 and 17 points in the first three games, Oubre went 0-for-6 from the field and was blanked in the Game 4 loss to the Celtics. The only matchup between these teams in the regular season after Nov. 11, Oubre scored just four points on 2-for-10 shooting. Boston ranks No. 1 in fewest points allowed to small forwards.
Jayden McDaniels averaged 4.2 rebounds over the course of the season, but in this series, he’s snagged at least eight boards in three of the four games. He’s also generated three assists in all four matchups with the Nuggets. Someone has to make up for the 8.1 rebounds/assists lost to Anthony Edwards, and McDaniels, the starting SF averaging 36 minutes per game, is the prime candidate.
This seems low for a red-hot Blazers PG averaging 23.3 ppg in three games this series. Wemby is back for the Spurs, so scoring inside will be more challenging. But Scott has hit five 3’s in each of the last two games. He also scored 20 in his lone regular-season matchup vs. the Spurs. We'll ride all the trends.
In two games this series, Ausar has P/R totals of 19 and 15. There’s no reason he shouldn’t keep that up; Orlando ranks 28th in points allowed to opposing small forwards and 26th in rebounds allowed, combining for over 33 P/R per game over 48 minutes. His regular-season average vs. the Magic was 17.3.
The Suns were humiliated by 35 points in a Game 1 loss to the Thunder. Devin Booker was a quasi-bright spot, scoring 23 points. He scored 21 and 24 points in two regular-season meetings as OKC held him to among his lowest shooting totals of the year. The Suns need Booker to be selfish: In the playoffs, since 2023, the Suns are 6-1 when Booker scores at least 30, and 0-9 when he doesn’t. He should shoot 25+ times.
With no Joel Embiid, Drummond played 21 minutes off the bench in Game 1 for the Sixers and was a non-factor (2 points, 5 rebounds). Starting center Adem Bona wasn’t good either, and Philly needs more production from the spot to have a chance. In two regular-season games vs. Boston in which he went over 24 minutes, Drummond totaled 27 and 22 P/R. Will Nick Nurse let Drummond cook? He should.
Murray scored 30 points in Game 1, and he was 0-for-8 on 3’s, and 7-of-22 shooting overall. Find the highlights, it was awkward watching the Wolves just chase Murray around, then running into him to send him to the line (he went 16-of-16 on FTs). He could have shot more and scored far more. There is no good matchup for Murray, and the Timberwolves are a bottom-five team in defense vs. point guards.
Towns averaged 32 P/R on the season. Oddsmakers have this a little lower, probably because it’s the postseason and intensity goes up. But he has a history of toying with Hawks C Onyeka Okongwu. KAT registered a P/R total of 33 in Game 1. In the previous four matchups between the two, Towns’ totals are 33, 51, 41 and 54. The Hawks’ frontcourt depth isn’t there with Jock Landale out, and KAT is the one to take advantage.
Barnes had a single rebound in his team’s Game 1 loss in Cleveland. That’s astonishing, since he had 21 points and seven assists to go with it. In three regular-season meetings with the Cavs, he totaled 10, 10 and 11. That will be a focus for him and for the Raptors here. He's shown the chops to do his part.
Podziemski seems like a player that can fly under the radar, then produce. LA will focus on finally healthy Steph Curry and Kristaps Porzinigs. Podziemski has scored 14-plus points in 10 of 11, the lone blip a meaningless season-ended vs. these Clippers. LA has a stout defense overall, but shooting guard has been a spot where opponents can produce.
Oubre averaged 19.0 P/R on the season, so oddsmakers expect the norm or slightly less. But Oubre feasted on the Magic in his one full game against them with 25 & 10. Someone has to make up for the lost 34.6 P/R of Joel Embiid. In the last 14 games without Embiid, Oubre as a starter has eclipsed 20 nine times. Orlando ranks 28th in PPG allowed to small forward sand 26th in rebounds given up to the spot.
Phoenix went 2-1 vs. Portland this season, the lone loss a 77-point dud without Devin Booker. The other two games with Booker, the Suns won both and scored 127 and 130. The No. 7 seed has a strong history vs. the No. 8 seed in these play-in games, and Portland has a history of losing in Phoenix, dropping 10 of its last 12 trips there. The Suns are 13-6 ATS (68.4%) when laying between 2 and 5 points.
As the regular season plays out, it’s only fun to play matchups in which both teams actually care. There aren’t many of them, but this qualifies. Houston has won seven straight, and is on a 4-2 ATS run. The Rockets are tied with the Lakers for the No. 4 spot but lose the tiebreaker, so this game is of utmost importance. Philly could get itself out of the play-in but it’s a stretch, and Joel Embiid, while not on the injury report, could be restricted.












