Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a PRA total of 42 vs. a Spurs team with ball-swatting Victor Wembanyama down in the paint. So it stands to reason that he should do better with defense-optional Nikola Jokic guarding the rim, right? Last year’s numbers back that up. In three games vs. Denver, SGA’s PRA totals were 52, 48 and 59. That he edged out Joker for last year’s MVP only adds to a motive for high production.

Giannis Antetokounmpo makes his Heat debut at home vs. a Timberwolves team that should score, but also miss, a lot of shots. Minnesota has space-eater Rudy Gobert, but in the last five matchups between him and Giannis, the Greek Freak has secured at least 13 rebounds in four of them. The Wolves were surprisingly average in rebounding last year on both ends of the court.

Dennis Schroder averaged a decent 4.5 assists per game last year for the Kings and Cavaliers when coming off the bench. In 17 starts, that average jumped to 6.0 per game. Projected Hornets starting PG Coby White is out, as is backcourt mate Kon Knueppel, so it’s up to White and Grayson Allen to lead the charge. Allen is the more pure scorer of the two, so it’s likely up to Schroder to run the Charlotte show. Brooklyn last season ranked 26th in assists per made basket.

Myles Turner was a first-year disappointment in Milwaukee last season. That especially goes for his rebounding, a career-worst 5.3 boards per game. Well, Giannis is gone and Turner’s post running mate in Milwaukee is Kyle Kuzma. In other words, if Turner doesn’t get the boards, nobody is going to. Washington ranked 26th in rebounding last year. It’s going to be a long season if the starting center can’t secure five boards on Opening Night.

What an amazing matchup, the defending champions against a rival team of assembled superstars built to knock them off. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown join the 76ers. Tyrese Maxey is out there as well. So there are only so many buckets to go around. This is a high total for Joel Embiid, who over the last two Opening Nights is a combined 3-for-20 shooting for 17 points. He faced Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks three times last year and scored 24, 18 and 14. Preseason means nearly nothing, but Embiid played a robust 26.5 minutes per game in his two outings and averaged 16.5 ppg.

Victor Wembanyama has 3-4 blocks in all four games this series. But it’s been three in three of those games. Wemby isn't camping on defense. He’s guarding guards and perimeter forwards, disrupting passing lanes with his long reach. That means he's not down low swatting shots all night. He has five steals this series, had 10 steals in the 7 games vs. OKC. He’s all over the place.

Jose Alvarado’s minutes jumped for Game 4 to 16, and he responded with eight points and three assists. He was the only Knicks bench guy who brought any value, and he committed five fouls, but so I expect even more minutes. Alvarado scored seven points in Game 1 and on the season averaged a combined 10.8 P/A. The Spurs' defense won't pay added attention to him, so he can produce with opportunity.

Jalen Brunson is going to score. He's had 30-plus in three of the four games so far. But he's doing more than that. His rebounds/assist totals the last three games has been 11, 10 and then 12 in Game 4. He played 44 minutes in Game 4. He’s had five boards in each of the last three games and is capable of 7-10 assists on any night.

Landry Shamet scored between 13 and 16 points in four straight playoff games before a tough three-point Game 3 (1-of-8). Still, he’s firing, and he’s likely to get overlooked by a Spurs defense that has to contend with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby. His one make in Game 3 was a 3, and seven of his attempts came from the outside. He hit three 3’s in each of the first two games. He hit 3-4 3’s in three of the four games vs. the Cavaliers last round, too.

The Spurs' defense centered around slowing Jalen Brunson. Brunson kept shooting anyway, went 11-of-25, and the Knicks lost. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns finished just 4-of-10 for 11 points. He scored 21 and 18 in the opening two games. He also grabbed just eight rebounds after securing 12 and 13 in the opening games, and one assist after four assists in Games 1 and 2 as well. New York needs KAT to be productive in the paint again. It should be a Knicks priority.

The Knicks have a killer instinct and they’re not settling. This team is well-coached and focused. They haven’t lost a game in a month and a half. The Spurs match up talent-for-talent, but they’re also the youngest team to reach the NBA Finals in 50 years, which showed in the closing seconds of Game 2. Now they go to Madison Square Garden, first NBA Finals game in 26 years at the Mecca of Hoops. Offensively and defensively, the Knicks were tangibly better at home. I'll back the Knicks for the third straight time.

We know Josh Hart can score because he averaged 12 ppg on the season. But through two games this series he’s managed a scant three points on 1-of-9 shooting. The Knicks have still won both games. Hart’s role has been rebounding, defending and passing, and he’s done those things well. San Antonio has defended Hart well, and sometimes with Victor Wembanyama, more so Wemby can roam and be free to help. Foul trouble limited Hart's minutes too.

Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 21 and 18 points in the Knicks’ first two wins this series, but his points are still a wild card this series. The Spurs rank 31st in assists allowed to centers (players guarded by Victor Wembanyama pass). KAT has had four assists in both games this series. The last two series vs. Jarrett Allen and Wembanyama, he’s averaging 12.2 rpg with 13 boards in four of those games. His R/A totals have been 16 or higher in 10 of the last 14 playoff games, including both this series.

Certainly the Spurs are going to come out with more fire here, but we’ve seen this story before in Knicks games, and they answered the bell in Game 2’s vs the Sixers and Cavaliers. The Knicks have been the most-impressive team of the postseason. They swept through the second and third rounds. In Game 1, the teams traded roundhouse rights. There were lots of runs in this game, and the Knicks made the last one. New York is now 3-1 vs. the Spurs this season, and the lone Spurs win was by two points.

Julian Champagnie scored 16 points in Game 1. He also hit 5 3’s, shooting 5-of-10. At this point it’s almost a waste to pick him to do anything scoring-wise except hit 3’s. The last four playoff games, Champagnie is 17-of-34 on 3’s (50%). In four of the last five games, he’s attempted two or fewer two-point shots. Champagnie averages 11.1 ppg on the season but scored 20-plus in two of the final three games vs. the Thunder.