

Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past five NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,931 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons. In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@jordanpaytonsn1Get Access ToALL PICKS FROM MATT & THE REST OF OUR EXPERTS
Matt's Past Picks
The Spurs are obviously miles better than the Jazz at full strength but are sitting Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Tobias Harris, Devin Vassell and a few others. It's Utah's last home preseason game so it appears a fair amount of their starters will play ... just maybe not Lauri Markkanen.
I mean it's preseason but why are the Cavs getting 4 at home when they are playing all their guys? So are the Celtics, but they also have to weave in some new additions like Paul George and Mitchell Robinson while starting life without Jaylen Brown. When the scrubs come in, we get a look at Cleveland second-round rookie Meleek Thomas, who led the NBA Summer League in scoring (27.3 PPG).
This is one of the more interesting NBA preseason games of them because it's the return from serious injury of Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana in his first game action since Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. It is played on the campus of Iowa State, where TH starred collegiately. He bought a bunch of tickets for students, so it's clear which team will get the fan backing in Ames. NBA TV game so I'm gonna check some of this out. The Pacers are the deeper team, so when the scrubs come in they should have the edge.
Certainly won't bet a lot of NBA preseason action but a few. Sounds as if Atlanta will play everyone of note tonight as the Hawks open their exhibition slate at home vs. retooling Memphis. The Hawks only have one other home game and not for a week, so if they are going to try a little it should be tonight. Grizz starting big Zach Edey is not expected to play. Good player, just can't stay healthy. Am excited to see Cam Boozer's first action for the Grizzlies, but the Atlanta roster is much better overall.
The Knicks haven't lost back-to-back games since April 20 & 23 and haven't lost back-to-back at MSG since mid-January. This is one of those I won't stress losing because I'd like the Chalamets and Stephen A's and McEnroes (although I loved him in that memorable Curb episode: "Freak Book!") of the world to just go away. Would be thrilled with a Spurs win to ensure a Game 6. As far as I can tell, the road team has never won the first four games of any NBA Finals. I completely remember the '93 Finals when the Bulls won the first two in Phoenix and the Suns won Game 3 in Chicago, but we all know what happened onward: #MJdontloseinfinals
At least in the NBA I grew up on, young teams had to fail in the playoffs before breaking through and winning a title. Could the young Spurs win tonight at the defending NBA champions? Sure they could, but I don't believe they are "ready" yet for a Game 7 road win at an opponent of this caliber. Perhaps that's no longer a thing where like MJ's young Bulls had to kinda advance a round per year and then lose to Boston or Detroit before figuring things out. No Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell is not great but perhaps a 40-burger coming from struggling Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC hasn't lost B2B games that mattered since early February.
Have the Knicks looked sensational lately? For sure. Are they getting overhyped because of us and ESPN, etc., because it's a New York team? 100% I don't need to see Mariska Hargitay this much if not watching SVU. But I can't ever crack on Ben Stiller because, obviously, Severance. This is clearly the season for the Cavs. They might be broken after that Game 1 collapse but I really don't think they get swept. What did they expect banking on James Harden? But they have been pretty dominant at home in these playoffs. Trying to think of the Cleveland famous fan version of Mariska. Drew Carey? Mr. Taylor Swift?
Thought the Cavs had a better roster than the Pistons anyways and now they have a chance to finish at home. Ideally, James Harden calls in sick (Beard not a great track record in elimination games), but Cleveland has been dominant at home for months. Detroit is terrible at 3-point shooting anyways and without Duncan Robinson even worse. He missed Game 5 and iffy for Game 6. I'm not sure it matters because while D-Rob can shoot, he's a massive defensive liability. Basically me. The Pistons need to get Giannis this offseason. Then they'd be fun.
Detroit made Game 3 in Cleveland much sweatier than I would have preferred, but the Cavs pulled it out. Unbeaten at home in these playoffs. James Harden especially looks like a different player on his home court than away. The Beard hit a couple of huge late shots in Saturday's victory. It would not surprise me at all if the home team won all seven in this series as happened in Round 1 between the Cavs and Raptors. Cleveland (obviously including playoffs) is an NBA-best 18-3 at home since Jan. 23 and has won nine straight at Rocket Mortgage Arena. Series is all but over if they drop this one.
Human nature for the Knicks to let up a bit -- I'll admit thought they would lose Game 3 without OG Anunoby. Can't imagine he plays today with a 3-0 lead. That would be stupid. I'm already so (pre) tired of hearing all these Knicks clowns with them in the East Finals much less if get to NBA Finals. That would be a disaster and I'll cancel ESPN for a month so I don't have to listen to Stephen A. just scream at the camera (I'll watch one of those shows maybe if you give me $5 million but only with ear muffs) when that dude gets every single prediction wrong. Not a fan. Bayless even less so if it's possible to go below zero.
Not been my NBA season, too many big favorites and that's not my cup of tea. Probably least I have ever bet the sport. But if I were writing the newsletter today? This is Leg 1 of a parlay. But I'm so fine with it solo that I'm going our max two units. I may do much more than that personally (realize just now what person I sound like on X and it turns my stomach). Will wait until closer to tip to decide because the NBA injury report may as well be toilet paper for how trustworthy it is these days. It's startling how different the Cavs have looked home and away in these playoffs. Hopefully they can flip the switch.
I don't see OG Anunoby playing Friday, and frankly New York should not let him with that hammy. Bigger goals more important than one game with a 2-0 lead. OG has been the best Knick in the playoffs overall. I won't even mention the Sixers guy with the initials JE. Frankly, I don't think it matters about JE playing or not, the Sixers will get this one at home. But I'll take it now at -1 as it likely gets to -3 or -3.5 if JE is cleared and OG is out. Initials ball Friday night!
Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.
I pretty much agree with everything Josh Nagel said in his pick. We are getting a mega-discount because no Jayson Tatum. If this were away? Nope. But I'm sure Joel Embiid will trip on a Twizzler or something and basically even that out. And I just don't have faith in the Sixers. At all. Why would we? If someone says Playoff Paul George again, I shall heave like a hungover college student who made the mistake of having beets the night before. So, yeah, Dwight Schrute.
The Rockets got their one to avoid embarrassment via a sweep on their home court, but LA should finish this off at home on Wednesday in Game 5. I expect a huge game from LeBron James after maybe his worst-ever playoff outing in that Game 4 loss. And all signs point to Austin Reaves finally playing even though he's technically a game-time call. Last thing the Lakers need is a Game 6 back in Houston and a few more days on the court ahead of facing the Thunder in Round 2.
