Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.
Will the tanking Mavericks try at all is the main question because they are rested and pretty healthy. The Clippers have lost four straight, and it's the end of a three-game trip with Kawhi Leonard in question. With really not a ton to play for locked into the Play-In Tournament, I'd certainly just rest Kawhi if not close to 100% until get back home, but that's me. Trade acquisition Bennedict Mathurin is out again. He has been quite good since coming from Indiana, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Our model has L.A. by three and it projects Kawhi as playing.
I did not expect Houston to be swept in a two-game home series by the Lakers on Wednesday, I will admit that completely. And maybe I'm a bit opaque on the Rockets for some reason, but they should not lose again at home to the Hawks even if Atlanta has won a league-best 11 in a row. Front of a B2B for the Hawks and no Jonathan Kuminga, who has been a tremendous trade pickup and a guy I wished the Bulls acquired. Nah, they just got a bunch of 2035 second-round picks.
So tough to sweep one of these baseball-type series on the road in the NBA even against a bad team, much less a good one like Houston. I touch on this in today's newsletter, but I expect a very motivated Kevin Durant tonight after he played terribly in Monday's home loss to the Lakers. The Rockets also didn't have second-leading scorer and All-Star center Alperen Sengun, and he's back tonight. L.A. is rolling but also the front of a back-to-back with LeBron maybe peeking ahead to a return to Miami on Thursday.
The Thunder could win by 40 if they wanted but why? It's the second of a B2B after a tough game in Orlando on Tuesday, and Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and (probably) Chet Holmgren will sit in Brooklyn. Just get up by 20 and get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others out of there late third quarter. OKC is 1-8 ATS in its past nine. The Nets can win the battle of the backups late and cover.
No Anthony Edwards for the Wolves but fifth game of a six-game trip and second of a back-to-back for Phoenix. Devin Booker played 37 minutes in last night's loss in Boston, so he might have heavy legs. Grayson Allen (17.2 PPG) is out. Minnesota is 6-4 without Edwards this season and has everyone else available. It tries to avoid the season sweep for some added motivation -- and a Suns win would cut the Wolves' lead for the No. 6 seed in the West to just a game. Phoenix is 5-7 ATS with no rest.
With Bam Adebayo in doubt, Kel'El Ware should see heavy minutes in Charlotte. Ware has four double-doubles over his last seven games and topped this number last time out vs. Orlando despite playing only 27 minutes. I'd think Ware gets closer to 33 tonight if Adebayo sits and Ware avoids foul trouble, etc.
Both teams are on fire, but we would excuse Orlando for perhaps looking ahead to Tuesday and one of its biggest home games of the season vs. Oklahoma City. The Hawks are 2-0 in this season series and will have everyone available with Jonathan Kuminga cleared to go. He had missed four of the past five but had looked good in limited action since the trade from Golden State. Still no Anthony Black or Franz Wagner for Orlando.
The Heat are getting a few guys back tonight while apparently there is a bit of a bug going around the Magic locker room. Both clubs are playing really well but perhaps a bit more motivation for Miami to avoid an embarrassing five-game season sweep against a possible playoff foe. Five games because one in the NBA Cup.
The Pacers certainly don't care, but the Suns are still pretty short-handed and have a tougher game Friday in Toronto. It will be the Indiana debut of trade acquisition Ivica Zubac, not that I expect him to play more than 20 minutes or so. Indiana is 14-11 ATS as a home dog. Something like 113-106 works, but our model has Phoenix only by three.
Philly's Dom Barlow might be the only rebounder the team has left tonight with Joel Embiid, Adem Bona and (likely) Andre Drummond all out. That would leave Barlow as the only Sixers guy taller than 6-foot-8 available. He averages right at this number in usually fairly limited minutes. Didn't expect to do a "Dom" prop today. No, Fast & Furious is not on in the background: "It doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile; winning's winning" -- truth in betting.
This should be a fun game Tuesday and a possible NBA Finals preview with Jayson Tatum now back for Boston. He has been limited to 27 minutes in his first two and that's not likely changing tonight. The C's are thinned out with Payton Pritchard and Nikola Vucevic both out. Vucevic's big body/six fouls would have been helpful against Victor Wembanyama tonight. The Spurs have won 15 of 16 and largely are trucking people. San Antonio is 21-0 when shooting at least 40.0% from beyond the arc this season. The only other such unbeaten team? Boston at 19-0. Pritchard and Vucevic are both pretty good from deep so they will be missed.
Third road game in four nights and second of a back-to-back for the Knicks, who have been in Los Angeles since Saturday. Jalen Brunson played 42 minutes in last night's loss to the Lakers, while OG Anunoby got 38 and Karl-Anthony Towns 34. New York is 13-19 ATS away. The Clippers are on normal rest and have the huge carrot of getting to .500 for the first time since Nov. 3. Darius Garland looks better by the game with L.A. His team is 6-3 ATS as a home dog.
Not a prediction so much as to entertain myself in a Tankapalooza. Despise the NBA this season. Every spread is -8 or higher, it seems, because a third of the league does not care, and there are only so many care vs. care matchups possible per night. This is the utter opposite of care vs. care, but I will write about it at CBS Sports betting and the newsletter simply for Trae Young's debut. Utah played Wednesday and lost a seventh in a row. Playing in the second of a B2B here allows the Jazz "cover" to basically sit everybody left standing and not get fined by the NBA. The Wizards win by accident with a bit of a Young boost in limited minutes.
I'm sure Giannis will be on some sort of minutes limit, but he's back and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum (close, though) are both out for Boston. And it's the second of a B2B for the Celtics -- one of those one-game trips guys just despise. Now that the Freak is back, the Bucks have to start winning right away for a Play-In chance. It's doable. So rare for them this year just to have everyone available.