I don't see OG Anunoby playing Friday, and frankly New York should not let him with that hammy. Bigger goals more important than one game with a 2-0 lead. OG has been the best Knick in the playoffs overall. I won't even mention the Sixers guy with the initials JE. Frankly, I don't think it matters about JE playing or not, the Sixers will get this one at home. But I'll take it now at -1 as it likely gets to -3 or -3.5 if JE is cleared and OG is out. Initials ball Friday night!
Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.
I pretty much agree with everything Josh Nagel said in his pick. We are getting a mega-discount because no Jayson Tatum. If this were away? Nope. But I'm sure Joel Embiid will trip on a Twizzler or something and basically even that out. And I just don't have faith in the Sixers. At all. Why would we? If someone says Playoff Paul George again, I shall heave like a hungover college student who made the mistake of having beets the night before. So, yeah, Dwight Schrute.
The Rockets got their one to avoid embarrassment via a sweep on their home court, but LA should finish this off at home on Wednesday in Game 5. I expect a huge game from LeBron James after maybe his worst-ever playoff outing in that Game 4 loss. And all signs point to Austin Reaves finally playing even though he's technically a game-time call. Last thing the Lakers need is a Game 6 back in Houston and a few more days on the court ahead of facing the Thunder in Round 2.
Feels like the proud and not-bad Suns will show up for one game, anyways, and cover a big number at home -- no Jalen Williams again for OKC helps a little in theory. Total human nature for the Thunder guys to somewhat go half-motion tonight knowing at worst they finish the series back in Game 5 at home. Although I certainly don't expect a Phoenix upset here. Our model has OKC by nine. It's the last +11.5 on our board and I probably wouldn't go lower, though. I'll spin my Manchester United half-unit cash from this afternoon into this one.
Yep, I'm a glutton for punishment. Just can't believe the Rockets will get swept out on their home floor. And I'm fascinated to see how they do play after coach Ime Udoka utterly shredded his guys after Game 3, one of the most blistering coach things you will ever hear. I'm not sure Udoka can return next season now if the Lakers do sweep, it was that harsh. And Kendrick Perkins destroyed Kevin Durant on social media for not even trying to play in Game 3. Kinda agree with him. The Rockets might just lay down tonight as all of a sudden it seems a dysfunctional bunch. Or they respond like gangbusters. I honestly don't know so will do a half unit.
I don't really tail much and this was on my radar anyways. But then I saw the excellent Mike Barner's play, and it was the clincher. CJ McCollum looks like he is at Lehigh, just smoking the Knicks like a pack of Kool. New York has one plus-defender in OG Anunoby but he's usually on Jalen Johnson. NBA guys are weird. They want that 20. 19 just ain't the same. And we know CJ will have the ball late if the game is close, so he should get a few free throw attempts. Jalen Brunson sure can't guard him. Brunson can't guard my grandma. But Yvonne had major skills ...
Clearly the books think Victor Wembanyama is playing. He is the face of the league now, so in my opinion ... he's not playing. Obviously the NBA wants its stars out there, but he was knocked out cold the other night on national TV and the optics of rushing him back from a concussion would be terrible. Hey, if Wemby is cleared then he is. Great. Incredible to watch. I think he's back Game 4, though, so this is Portland's one chance to steal the series. Or at least home court. Tonight is the franchise's first home playoff game in five years. Portlandia!
Houston was utterly stagnant last game offensively without Kevin Durant but all sings are pointing to him playing tonight. Even with all those struggles, the Rockets and Lakers combined for 205 points in the opener. So you'd sure think getting to 207 wouldn't be that hard if KD returns -- the model has 216 points. I'm starting to see some totals moving up so better grab it now. Half unit like all totals.
Don't like any of the NBA playoff spreads today and really no playable moneylines not in a parlay so we'll take a half-unit shot here. If you have followed me over the years, I rarely bet a game total Over. Not really sure why. Guess I believe it's easier to miss shots/miss pitches, etc., than it is to succeed against fellow professionals. And obviously any major injuries to stars in-game. The Lakers clearly will struggle to score without Luka and AR, but this is quite low in the modern NBA even for the slower postseason. Could be a rout and if so, that's when teams forget about defense. Our model has this clearing Over by 11 points.
I think this just got a bit more worthwhile with Immanuel Quickley ruled out for the Dinos. That means for sure a few more shot attempts for Scottie Barnes, and he will be primary ball-handler (about half is anyways). And that guy rarely comes off the court in a close game. One of the most underrated players in the league -- a prime Draymond Green in some ways. I guess a concern might be a Cavs rout and Barnes doesn't play heavy minutes, but I'm not really seeing a rout despite the spread. Our model has Barnes at about 34 PRA.
Orlando's Paolo Banchero is one of the top-five most disappointing NBA guys of the season. Solid year, but the ex-No. 1 overall pick was supposed to take a leap and went a bit backward. I think Paolo has a statement game. And to me it feels like the Hornets just sherpa-ed (verb?) Mount Everest and nowhere to go but down after an utterly wild win over Miami. That was entertaining. Love to see the Bugs move on, they are fun to watch. Although LaMelo Ball's tatts looks like drawn by a drunken Monet (or Manet, I always get confused).
Just not my NBA year, clearly. Even the excellent Mike Barner told me in a DM off-site he can't bet sides this year because of all the tanking -- but Mike, our Bulls just got that second first-round pick from Portland! (Chicago will trade it for a bag of magic legumes and Kendrick Perkins.) Alas, I am not as good as Mike is at player props. So probably my quietest betting NBA year in a long while. Let's try this, though. Maybe there's some Steph/Kristaps magic in a pick-and-roll. They have barely played together. And Curry can always go for fitty. Also maybe Steve Kerr's last game as coach as I mentioned in the newsletter. This is just a flier, obviously, not a prediction.
BetMGM is the only book of ours that is showing Andre Drummond for Wednesday's game (it's live) vs. Orlando, and I want to take this now because I think when the rest post it goes to at least 20 if not higher. No Joel Embiid, because of course not, so Drummond should be looking at 30 minutes or so if not hurt or in foul trouble or in a blowout, and I don't see a rout anyways. Not completely out of the question he gets close on rebounds alone as Drummond closed the season with three straight games of at least 12 boards and easily topped this number in each.
It would be absolute human nature for the playoff-newbie Trail Blazers to somewhat go through the motions Tuesday if they get down a decent amount early. Even with a loss, as the No. 8 seed they are guaranteed a home game against the 9-10 winner to still reach the playoffs. Think we have seen teams take that second game kinda for granted before because the No. 7 seed is 8-2 SU in the 7 vs. 8 game all-time. Phoenix won the regular-season series 2-1 and has taken 10 of the past 12 at home vs. Portland. I think this only goes up so will grab it now.