Matt's Past Picks
Trae Young played 35 minutes last night so if this game gets out of hand, and considering all the Sixers out again it very well may, then Young shouldn't approach that minute total and obviously tougher to get to 27 points. As it is, he's listed with an Achilles injury but expected to play. For whatever reason, Young is shooting much worse overall and from deep at home this season.
Jazz 7-footer Walker Kessler wasn't attempting any 3-pointers for much of this season. He has started to occasionally but still has games with zero attempts recently (also a couple with five) and averages 0.1 makes overall on the season at 16.7%. This has massive blowout potential and Kessler is key piece of the Utah future, so I wouldn't think he'd play a ton of minutes with the Jazz tanking. And Utah needs him underneath against Cleveland's Twin Towers.
This should be an OKC blowout so ideally Miles Bridges isn't out there for 35+ minutes for the Hornets, especially after playing 36 last night in an upset of the Knicks. The Hornets don't want to win again, trust me. The Thunder are resting a couple of key guys but still should be dominant defensively in the post where Bridges usually lives with 7-footers Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein both in the lineup. Our model only has Bridges at 19.4 PPG.
Forget the Austin Reaves play as he's also out now for L.A. Wish someone had an answer for how to stop this in the NBA (don't get paid if don't play? But everyone deserves sick days so I don't know). I should probably pass here, but the Lakers' lineup made me chuckle out loud -- sounds like one of those slip-and-fall law firms you see on TV -- to the point I want to have an opinion. My second-favorite Dalton (after obviously Patrick Swayze in Road House; best terrible movie ever) may score 40 tonight, but he's averaging 9.6 PPG and is a rookie. So I can see some veterans perhaps acting selfish to pad their stats in a glorified scrimmage.
I think this became value when Luka Doncic was ruled out because now Austin Reaves might put up 30 shots against the Bucks. Who else on that roster can score consistently to where Reaves might get eight assists? There's also the fact he played 36 minutes last night so if one team gets out to a big lead, I tend to think Reaves comes out fairly early in a third game in four nights.
Under normal circumstances, l likely don't play this but Steph Curry got the Dubs' last game off because he was "exhausted" per Steve Kerr. Thus, if this is a blowout, and there's no real reason it shouldn't be with the Raptors tanking and sitting guys, then I'd think Curry plays no more than 30 minutes. Still very capable of scoring 27 points in that time, but most models generally have him at 24.5. Curry averages 22.9 PPG at home this season and had 26 in Toronto on Jan. 13 while playing 35 minutes in a close loss. That was pre-Jimmy Butler.
This is the new active number at FanDuel with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray ruled out. Obviously no LeBron James for L.A. but this still feels a bit low to me -- think we are getting a moderate discount because the Nuggets somehow won Monday at Golden State down Jokic and Murray and others.
I find this game fascinating because both franchises are actively trying to lose out and both have been under the league's microscope for sitting guys so blatantly (Utah was fined). Looks like many key Wizards led by Jordan Poole are sitting this one out, while the Jazz apparently will at least have the likes of Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton and a few other regulars (knock on wood). Utah has lost 10 in a row and this frankly might be the last realistic chance the Jazz have of avoiding at least a 20-game skid. I'm sorta exaggerating but also looking at their schedule and their motivation. The next realistic home win isn't until April 9 vs. Portland.
To be clear, Chet Holmgren probably could hang 40 on the JV Sixers tonight but I can't imagine my second favorite Chet -- after the memorable Bill Paxton character in "Weird Science" -- plays even 30 minutes with his injury history and OKC on cruise control the rest of the RS (and sitting several others). Holmgren averages 15.0 PPG on the season. Get him 25 minutes for conditioning and out.
Not a huge team totals guy, but it's the second of a B2B for the Dubs and Coach Steve Kerr seemed to all but guarantee that Steph Curry would get the second of a B2B off as he's "exhausted." Curry really struggled last night in a shockingly bad home loss to very short-handed Denver where the Dubs only had 105 points.
With starters RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick and Jakob Poeltl out for the Dinos in the second of a back-to-back, Immanuel Quickley should be a busy man tonight because he was rested on Sunday. And he has topped this number in three straight regardless. Since the All-Star break (10 games), Quickley has averaged 20.5 points, 5.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds.
Deni Avdija is having a really nice season in his first year with Portland, having come over from the Wizards in a trade in the offseason. He surely will be fired up to face his former team but averages 15.3 points on the season and played 34 minutes last night, so if this is a blowout I'd imagine Avdija is pulled pretty early as he's a part of the future and no reason to play him heavy minutes again on a lottery team. Our model has him at 15.5 points. I'd guess around 17-18 tonight.
Two teams going in opposite directions but the Kings certainly need it more and are healthy with Domantas Sabonis off the injury report. Third game in four nights and start of a trip for the Grizz, who are down Ja Morant (15-10 without him this season) and rotation guys Santi Aldama and Scotty Pippen Jr. The Kings have won the past two at home in the series.
The injury report for this game Sunday is rather humorous/sad and is emblematic of what is wrong with the NBA this time of year in a Tankfest. The Sixers have basically ruled everyone of note out other than former Maverick Quentin Grimes (I will definitely look at his points total tomorrow). The Dallas report is pretty long too, but at least a few regulars (Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Max Christie) should play.
Already played Detroit +6 and generally don't like putting so many eggs in one basket, but I'm always gonna play anyone Under 35 points (well maybe not MJ but I wasn't a bettor back then) as much as I enjoy watching SGA. Dude is just smooth. Good for him if he can score 35, but the math tells us we have to play Under this. Our model has him at 33.