Will eat this number and go big -- anchor leg if need be (will buy out if any Boston key person out). It's high but probably should be another 50 cents higher. Still no Tyler Herro for the Heat, who did nothing at the deadline to stay mediocre. At least the Bulls got like a cacophony of second-round picks. Maybe they find the next Nikola Jokic in Round 2. LOL. Then trade him probably. And I think one of those Bulls' traded guys, Nikola Vucevic, makes the Celtics that much better. He solves a few of their issues. Could the Heat win? Obviously, but I am kinda puttering along in the NBA so I need to get going. But I usually take off post-break.
This will jump if Joel Embiid sits (doubt). And I don't want to mention him, but usually I only have to reference when back the Sixers. I'd be fine him sitting tonight. And I think Paul George is one of the most overrated players of his generation. But he's a very good defender. Him being out suspended for a while won't probably matter that often, but he would be the main guy on Luka and/or LeBron. Now Philly doesn't have a strong defender to deal with either. You think Dominick Barlow will do something? Also, I believe certain home games are much more important -- including those after a long road trip to reset momentum. That's where the Lakers are following their Grammys Trip.
Charlotte has been really impressive of late and Houston is in the second of a B2B. But this seems a bit light at Houston -- still a talent gap. Actually believe the Rockets getting punked at home last night only helps matters. Coby White will not make his Hornets debut not that it would change my mind.
The Memphis front office traded away its best player on Tuesday in Jaren Jackson Jr., and most everyone else notable is out. Start of a long trip for the Grizz, who are 1-6 in their past seven. Sacramento hasn't traded Domantas Sabonis .... yet. He's expected to play after missing a couple. Rare true chance for a win for the Kings, who have dropped nine in a row. You'd think all those vets have some pride left to avoid a double-digit slide. It's their first home game since Jan. 21.
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its past eight and pretty healthy other than Trae Young. Feels like Trap City for the Knicks off a marquee home game Sunday vs. the Lakers and another one back at MSG tomorrow night vs. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in a possible Finals preview. So easy to overlook the Wiz. The New York bench is thin with Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson sitting in the front of the B2B. This is the Knicks' only visit to D.C. this season so it should mean even a bit more perhaps to the Wiz guys (and a full house) as it's clearly a marquee game on the slate.
No Kevin Durant tonight, the Rockets (4-12 ATS in past 16 overall) are 2-0 without him but averaged just 109.0 PPG in those two, well down from their season average. Also a one-game trip that NBA players despise and with a much bigger game next back home vs. Boston. Indiana is getting healthy and has won two in a row at home and three of four overall. And obviously I don't need anything near a win, even though our model has Indiana doing just that. The Pacers lost by seven in Houston in late December when they were playing horribly and Durant had 30 points.
Coby White should get a few more shot attempts with both Josh Giddey and Tre Jones out and fellow guard Kevin Huerter iffy. White is in a bit of a shooting slump, but he didn't play last night in Miami and Ayo Dosunmu did, so that's why I am playing a White points prop instead of a Dosunmu one as I worry a bit about his tired legs after 37 minutes. White had five straight games of at least 22 points before being held to 14 in each of the past two.
I personally like seeing downtrodden teams finally rise up (just not apparently the Bulls) as the Hornets are doing. What a great pick Kon Knueppel was at No. 4 in the 2025 draft. If you redraft, he probably goes second. White boy with not-great athleticism? I thought he'd struggle in the pros kinda like Steve Alford did; he was a similar player in college. But Kon shoots the lights out and hasn't stopped in the NBA. He's Vanilla Curry (tm). I'm sure the Bulls would have passed on him and taken Dalen Terry or the like. Insert Charlie Brown sigh here. Half unit as the Spurs are excellent.
The Clippers are playing great and Kawhi looks sensational, but this is curious with Nikola Jokic expected back. I'd imagine some minutes limit, but just the emotional boost on top of the fact the dude is the best player in the world. Seriously, you younger ones Google Arvydas Sabonis. He and NK are mirror images in many ways. Why don't American coaches teach this type of big-man offense from the top of the key? Obviously need a rare talent to do it. I'll do a half simply as yeah the Joker might be on a tight cap.
I don't believe Luka plays tonight in DC after tweaking his ankle on that weird Cleveland Cavaliers raised court like the University of Minnesota has. Not sure who thought those were a good idea. If Doncic does play, then I'd think he's out of there fairly quickly if this gets out of hand ahead of a marquee game Sunday at the Knicks. I'm definitely pondering Wizards and the points (they have done well for us lately), but that they are in the second of a B2B gives me some pause.
Charlotte is playing as well as it has in years, but we are now giving 4.5 on the Hornets in the second of a back-to-back on the road? Let's pump the brakes a little. Granted, all of our other books have 3.5 and it's the second of a B2B for Dallas as well. But it didn't travel. Our model has Bugs by 2. Cool.
This is the new number with Jalen Brunson a late add to the injury report as questionable with an illness. Needless to say, landing on that this late is not ideal and probably means he's out. May as well sit him in the second of a back-to-back. Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson are out and Josh Hart is also iffy.
Former Wizard Deni Avdija is expected back for Portland, which has dropped two straight, but may have a bit of a minutes cap after missing the past two. I expect at least Jrue Holiday to sit out tonight for Portland after playing Monday as he's probably going to be traded soon and you don't want to risk injury. Robert Williams probably out too. Other than Trae Young, Washington is fairly healthy with Bilal Coulibaly back here. The Wiz have dropped nine in a row but generally competitive of late.
Are the Hornets all growed up enough to win a game like this? They are massively improved of late, healthy and getting a better team missing two of its best players in Joel Embiid and Paul George. It's just so rare we expect Charlotte to win, so that's what gives me pause. And I'm not sure there will be a huge home-court advantage with this moved up four hours due to wintry weather. But it's a dreaded one-game trip for the Sixers and the front end of a B2B for them.
I expect LeBron James to largely play facilitator/rebounder tonight to allow Luka Doncic to go bananas offensively in his second game back in Dallas since truly the worst trade in sports history -- if any American company hires former Mavs GM Nico Harrison, it deserves to go bankrupt. What a doofus (but I blame the owner more as he could have said no). I certainly looked at Luka's point total tonight but I just can't go Over a 33.5 number (our model has 31.9). So we'll do this instead. The model has LeBron at 14.1 RA.