Important to me to play one last game because I'm out on the NBA for a while. Not bitter, things are just awful. No chance Wednesday I play the Hawks when Jalen Johnson was ruled out like late. So what I am supposed to do? Wanted to post this last one as to explain why. Used to love, love the NBA. Now I don't recognize it. No one plays anymore. It's a bad, bad product. And this hurts me to say. Player props are a possibility but short of just crazy value I'm gonna sit out. Don't like giving away $$. Maybe Christmas as guys seem to want to play then. Lot of people think the NBA season only starts on Xmas anyways.

Remember when the Heat were a low-scoring, hard-nosed defensive team? Those days are long gone as the team ranks second in the NBA at 124.3 PPG. But leading scorer Norman Powell (25.0 PPG) is out, which knocked this down a couple. The Mavs are middle-of-the pack defensively overall but top five against the 3-pointer and have allowed at least 123 points just once in their past eight. Our model has Miami at 121. When the teams met recently in South Florida, the Heat won 106-102. Powell missed that, too, but had since returned and totaled 58 points in the past two.

Even if I don't love this, just want to play something in the NBA. Never seen so many lopsided games in terms of spreads. Handful of good teams in the league and a bunch of really bad ones. Terrible product right now. The Clippers might be in some turmoil with Chris Paul released overnight. Not that he had been playing much but he's still an immensely popular future Hall of Famer. L.A. has lost five straight and the defense has gone missing despite Kawhi Leonard's return. No Unicorn for the Hawks is not ideal but they should pull this out as the Clips are 2-9 away.

Feels like a horrible spot for the Pistons, the better team otherwise. I'm a little gun-shy on them after burning us last night at home vs. Orlando. But this is a one-game roadie down to Florida and then back home. Also the club's third game in a different city in four nights. Starting center Jalen Duren, who has become a beast, is out. Miami has won six straight and off since Wednesday. If logic matters at all ... (it often doesn't).

I agree with everything Mike Barner wrote when he took Pistons -3, and I often take notice when Mike plays a side as usually a props guy. The Magic are good but still down Paolo Banchero and just different away. Often like to fade road teams the day after a major holiday as some guys obviously would rather not be stuck at the Detroit Radisson by the airport on Thanksgiving -- think Planes, Trains & Automobiles. So darn good. Although I'm pretty sure the Magic aren't staying at the Radisson by the airport. I may be projecting past issues of my own. Trying to get all picks in early so I can get 75% off yarn that I'll never use via Black Friday deals.

Draymond Green has been upgraded to probable, so I think the Dubs can pull this out against a Houston team quite short-handed in the frontcourt down Kevin Durant, Steven Adams (who has been starting at center) and Tari Eason. This is a rematch of last season's first-round playoff series won by Golden State. The Rockets' best player arguably in that was Fred VanVleet, and he's out for the season with a torn ACL. Whichever team loses will be eliminated from reaching the knockout stage in NBA Cup play. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS at home and outscoring teams by an average of more than 13 PPG.

The Pistons have tied a franchise record with 13 straight wins. And I'll talk about this in the newsletter on Wednesday. But, yep, I think they do go down in Boston -- although the beauty of 3.5 is no buzzer-beating loss, so we can still win ATS and lose SU in theory. The C's have the defenders to deal with Cade Cunningham and this just "seems" like the spot the run ends for Detroit, for lack of a better word. Pistons-Celtics was a huge part of my childhood/NBA growing up. Wished Isiah and Bird got in a DeLorean and simply vanished into thin 1955 air.

I want to be clear about something. If I mention Joel Embiid in a positive way in terms of that's why I am betting the Sixers, I've clearly taken the wrong medication. I will never, ever mention that dude again in that regard. He actually went through shootaround today to drop this number and then of course ruled out. How can I go to shootarounds and sit on NBA benches and do nothing else and get paid 40 mil a year? Ah, I'm not 7-foot-1. Yes, I'm very, very bitter about guys like Embiid and Paul George (also out tonight). But 4.5 seems a shade high for Orlando on the road still down Paolo Banchero. I was hoping for 5 but guess not. Half unit.

The Raptors are 2-0 in the season series and won both of those in Cleveland. Second of a back-to-back for both and the Cavs apparently are going to be much more short-handed with the likes of Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and De'Andre Hunter out. No RJ Barrett for the Raptors and that's not ideal, but I still think they come out on top at home against a likely gassed Cavs team playing a third game in four nights and looking at three days off up next.

Orlando is playing really well of late despite being without its best player in Paolo Banchero, but also in the second of a B2B after flying up from Florida late Saturday following a win over the Knicks. Ideally Jalen Suggs (and others) sits out, and I think he will. I expect a VERY motivated Boston team after being embarrassed at home by Brooklyn on Friday out in one of the season's biggest "huh?" moments thus far. Yep, I'm gonna have to do two units on this one.

Don't like to play big spreads generally because there's no motivation when a team in theory is smashing another mid-third quarter. But long shots ATS I do like sometimes and think this is a good 4-5 points too high. To be clear, OKC looks truly phenomenal. 75 wins might be in play (it isn't). But Utah is 6-1 ATS at home and this is the Jazz's biggest home game of the season. I have about 50 jokes lined up regarding Jazz fans -- imagine John Stockton wearing Uggs, but more boring -- but now I hope they get rowdy (they won't). Utah has had two practice days to prepare. It's also a one-off trip for OKC in the midst of four home games otherwise.

Rather enjoying watching the Mavericks crater because ownership signed off on that Luka Doncic trade, yet then fired GM Nico Harrison basically because of it. Granted, Nico never should have brought such silliness to ownership, but to quote Nancy Reagan: "Just Say No." The Mavs are playing pretty well of late at home, at least, and are getting healthy other than Anthony Davis, the centerpiece of that trade (LOL), and of course Kyrie Irving. If they can't beat the truly don't-care Pelicans, who have dropped seven straight and are without third-leading scorer Jordan Poole (17.3 PPG) at home, then I don't know what to say. Tough sports year in Big D overall if we loop in Texas football. Guess it's all on the Stars now.

Will play a little here to talk about the state of the NBA. It used to be my favorite league (personally played a lot of hoops) but now don't much like it. So absurd how many teams are not trying and/or resting guys. Adam Silver better do something soon or I won't be the last to say I'm done with this league. So just to be protesting or whatnot, I'll throw something on two teams that have half their rosters out and simply aren't much trying for different reasons. Ja Morant broke the one-time promising Grizzlies. Sacramento has not been promising since "Timeout" Chris Webber and is among the worst-run teams in sports. Second of B2B for Sac-Town (1-7 away) is all this is. #toiletbowl

May be having a stroke as I'm playing a road NBA team, but with how many guys are just not playing most nights, I'm clearly gonna have to open things up a bit. And this was only being played if two key questionable Atlanta guys in Kristaps Porzingis and Zaccharie Risacher were available. They are and should dominate up front with no Wemby in there. Oddly, the Hawks have been better away. Not only are the Spurs without Wemby but also Stephon Castle.

My favorite points props are ones where I get three different options (or more). So on KAT, for example, I can pick from 22.5 at a couple of books, 23.5 at a couple and this outlier 24.5. These are the props I try and find because then can only blame myself if he lands at 23 and I picked the wrong one. But Jalen Brunson went through shootaround today so that leads me to think he will play. And you know he wants to put on a show in Dallas. If the former Maverick does play, then I feel solid about this Towns number. If he doesn't play, probably a loss. Our model has Brunson at 25.0 points and KAT 21.4.