The Pistons have an East-leading 45 wins, covering 32 of those games, and being equally good on the road (21-9) as they are at home (23-7). The Nets have only 15 wins on the season, and they're on a 10-game losing streak where they've covered only one game in that span. The Pistons have lost two straight coming into tonight. The Pistons have also won five straight against the Nets, including covering eight straight. The last time they met was on February 1st, and Detroit won 130-77 as 14-point favorites. Detroit covers tonight.
The Nets and Heat have met twice this season, with Miami winning and covering by 11 points or more. They met two nights ago in Miami, where the Heat won 124-94, covering 13 points. It's the same situation tonight. Michael Porter is failing lately as the Nets primary scorer, shooting 0-for-9 from 3-point range on Tuesday night. The team shot 38% from the field. The Nets are now 15-46 and have lost their last nine in a row. Just one game out from having the worst record in the NBA. They're tanking and don't even care who knows. They've only covered one game out of their last nine. Heat to cover.
The Celtics last played on Monday and won their third straight game, while the Hornets won and covered their fifth straight game yesterday. The Hornets are now 31-31, sitting with the 9th seed. Now, they're only two games from the 6th seed. They're moving up fast. Do I trust the Hornets against a team like the Celtics that plays solid defense, holding teams below 100 in nine of their past 13 wins? The Hornets have won 15 of their last 18 games. Only three teams have beaten them since January 22nd. This is their first meeting this year, and the Celtics have won the previous six meetings. I'm buying this Hornets squad on the road with no rest.
The Spurs had an 11-game winning streak going until they faced the Knicks on Sunday at MSG. The Spurs shot only 42% from the field and 26% from 3-point range, while turning the ball over 22 times. It may have been one of the un-Spurs-like moments of the year. The Spurs are second in the West and look like the best team in basketball. They win on the road almost as impressively as their 21-6 home record. This is their first meeting with the 76ers this season after beating them 128-120 last March. Spurs to cover. Spurs start up another winning streak tonight and cover. Let's say the Spurs win by 10 or more.
The Charlotte Hornets have won and covered their last four games, and they have taken over as the NBA's best cover team at 38-23 ATS. The Hornets are almost .500 at 30-31, but they're 10th in the standings, which would be a playoff berth right now. They're moving up fast. They're only three wins from the 76ers, who are currently the sixth seed. Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg is listed as day-to-day, but he hasn't played in 3 weeks. The Hornets won their last four by at least 16 points and have covered their last seven games. The Hornets have something groovin' right now, cover tonight.
The Lakers can't beat the good teams, but they feast on the bad teams. Even though the Suns have a winning record on the season, the current state of the team says they're bad. They’ve lost six of their last eight. Once the best covering team in the NBA, they’ve failed to cover seven times in their last eight games. The Lakers have lost four of their last six, but those were all to good teams on a home stand. The Lakers owe the Suns some payback after losing to them 132-108, without Luke Doncic, on December 23rd. Who knows who's going to play for the Suns tonight, but it's a good bet it's not going to be Devin Booker. Lakers to cover.
The Spurs have won and covered the last four meetings with the Nets. Currently, they have won 10 straight games, but they played last night at Toronto and didn't cover -6. The Spurs look like the best team in the West. They're playing together as a team with everyone clicking. The balls are bouncing their way. And the team they're playing, the Nets, is the complete opposite of the Spurs, sitting 15-42 on the season and losing large in their last five games. The Nets blew a big lead on Sunday at Atlanta, and while they scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, it seemed like they didn't score for the final 6 minutes of the game. A Nets brain freeze moment. Spurs cover.
The Celtics have got a good thing going at 38-19 on the season, and they've won and covered four straight games. They've been doing it by controlling the pace, keeping games under the total. They've stayed under 36 times this season. The Nuggets have been in a free fall, losing 6 of their last 9 games, but the Nuggets aren’t going to lay down playing the Celtics' style. Denver is going to play Nuggets-style basketball, which is fast and gets over the total like they have the last three games and 37 times this season. Celtics may win or cover, but I think the game goes over.
The Suns strategy Sunday against the Blazers was to slow the game down to a drip, and the Blazers came away with a 92-77 win. The Suns were without their three best players, and the strategy didn't work as they shot 36% from the floor and had 19 turnovers. That strategy halted the Blazers streak of eight straight games over the total. They're at home tonight against the Timberwolves, and I expect that fast pace to continue with the Timberwolves, who have gone over three of their last four ball games. They've also gone over the last two meetings, the last being February 11th in Minnesota. This game gets over.
Don't you think Michael Porter is due for a big game? In three of his last four games in January, he scored 30 points or more. They were all Nets losses, but Porter played strong. In his game on January 29th against his former Nuggets, he scored 38 points and made 7 of 15 three pointers. But in February, he doesn't have any games over 23 points. He's playing the Hawks, who have lost four of their last five. They're playing their third game in four nights just like the Nets. I think this is a game the Nets can win, and I think Porter's going to score more than 24 points.
The Blazers have won four of their last five games, and all five games have gone over. In fact, they've gone over seven games in a row. The Nuggets played last night and lost to the Clippers, and it went over the total as well. The Nuggets have lost five of their last seven games, and I think they get into a shootout tonight in Portland. The Nuggets are 35-21 to the over this season. Over is the best play in this game.
Dillon Brooks is having a career year with Phoenix, scoring 21 points per game and shooting a career best 44.5%. His career has been rebooted and rejuvenated with the best ATS team in the NBA. While Devin Booker is injured, Brooks has scored 26 or more in his last three games and last night scored 40 points. Phoenix is playing a slow-down game, staying under the total in their last four and having Brooks take the most shots without Booker. I don't see the Suns winning tonight, but I do see Brooks getting over 24 points.
Michael Porter is playing in Denver tonight against the team that drafted him, and he started for when they won the NBA Championship. It's going to be a bittersweet moment for Porter, and I think he excels and maybe even leads the Nets to a win. He's averaged 24 points in 18 road games and averages 25.2 points per game this season. The Nets beat the Nuggets in Brooklyn 127-115 on January 4th. Michael Porter had 27 points in that game. Returning home where it all started, I say he gets over 30.
The Warriors won Tuesday night at Los Angeles by 10 despite being outshot 55% to 49%, but they had more threes and a better shooting night at the line, with two Warrior players going 24 for 24 from the line. The Nuggets enter the season with a new bench and a new three-point specialist in Cameron Johnson, whom they acquired in a trade for Michael Porter. Porter was good when they were rolling, a front-runner, and soft on defense. They also grabbed Bruce Brown, who was instrumental in the Nuggets championship run. This team has a nice mix of players on the bench to help the starters maintain the lead in games. The Nuggets had won nine straight against the Warriors until their last meeting.
NBA Finals Game 7 tonight with both teams covering three games apiece. This is exactly what NBA executives wanted to see happen. I think the refs will call this one like it is and just look for a great Game 7, no edge. And to me, that opens the window for Indiana to win. Game 6 was a precursor to what's going to happen tonight. Oklahoma City sleepwalked through the second and third quarters in Game 6, and that showed a lot about them. They were exposed. They shot 42% from the field and turned the ball over 21 times. Who feels the pressure more? Indiana to win.