The Suns strategy Sunday against the Blazers was to slow the game down to a drip, and the Blazers came away with a 92-77 win. The Suns were without their three best players, and the strategy didn't work as they shot 36% from the floor and had 19 turnovers. That strategy halted the Blazers streak of eight straight games over the total. They're at home tonight against the Timberwolves, and I expect that fast pace to continue with the Timberwolves, who have gone over three of their last four ball games. They've also gone over the last two meetings, the last being February 11th in Minnesota. This game gets over.
Don't you think Michael Porter is due for a big game? In three of his last four games in January, he scored 30 points or more. They were all Nets losses, but Porter played strong. In his game on January 29th against his former Nuggets, he scored 38 points and made 7 of 15 three pointers. But in February, he doesn't have any games over 23 points. He's playing the Hawks, who have lost four of their last five. They're playing their third game in four nights just like the Nets. I think this is a game the Nets can win, and I think Porter's going to score more than 24 points.
The Blazers have won four of their last five games, and all five games have gone over. In fact, they've gone over seven games in a row. The Nuggets played last night and lost to the Clippers, and it went over the total as well. The Nuggets have lost five of their last seven games, and I think they get into a shootout tonight in Portland. The Nuggets are 35-21 to the over this season. Over is the best play in this game.
Dillon Brooks is having a career year with Phoenix, scoring 21 points per game and shooting a career best 44.5%. His career has been rebooted and rejuvenated with the best ATS team in the NBA. While Devin Booker is injured, Brooks has scored 26 or more in his last three games and last night scored 40 points. Phoenix is playing a slow-down game, staying under the total in their last four and having Brooks take the most shots without Booker. I don't see the Suns winning tonight, but I do see Brooks getting over 24 points.
Michael Porter is playing in Denver tonight against the team that drafted him, and he started for when they won the NBA Championship. It's going to be a bittersweet moment for Porter, and I think he excels and maybe even leads the Nets to a win. He's averaged 24 points in 18 road games and averages 25.2 points per game this season. The Nets beat the Nuggets in Brooklyn 127-115 on January 4th. Michael Porter had 27 points in that game. Returning home where it all started, I say he gets over 30.
The Warriors won Tuesday night at Los Angeles by 10 despite being outshot 55% to 49%, but they had more threes and a better shooting night at the line, with two Warrior players going 24 for 24 from the line. The Nuggets enter the season with a new bench and a new three-point specialist in Cameron Johnson, whom they acquired in a trade for Michael Porter. Porter was good when they were rolling, a front-runner, and soft on defense. They also grabbed Bruce Brown, who was instrumental in the Nuggets championship run. This team has a nice mix of players on the bench to help the starters maintain the lead in games. The Nuggets had won nine straight against the Warriors until their last meeting.
NBA Finals Game 7 tonight with both teams covering three games apiece. This is exactly what NBA executives wanted to see happen. I think the refs will call this one like it is and just look for a great Game 7, no edge. And to me, that opens the window for Indiana to win. Game 6 was a precursor to what's going to happen tonight. Oklahoma City sleepwalked through the second and third quarters in Game 6, and that showed a lot about them. They were exposed. They shot 42% from the field and turned the ball over 21 times. Who feels the pressure more? Indiana to win.
Oklahoma City can close it out in Game 6 at Indiana, where the Thunder have covered three of the five games so far in the series and covered the two meetings in the regular season. The last two games have been won by Oklahoma City, barely covering Game 4, and it looks like OKC wants to close this thing out. I see the dynamic duo of the Thunder taking their game up a notch and beating Indiana rather easily. The series should actually be over already if Game 1 had gone differently. Oklahoma City to win.
Game 5 of the NBA Finals is tonight, and the series is knotted up at two games apiece, but a major thing happening in this series is that 3 of the 4 games have stayed under the total. This isn’t the play that got them here. Defense-minded first. Game 4 started out as one of the fastest of the series with Indiana taking a 35-34 first-quarter lead, but Indiana fizzled from there, ending up with a weak fourth quarter, scoring just 17 points. The Pacers led going into the fourth quarter and got outscored by 14 points by the Thunder. The Thunder is going to control the pace of Game 5 at home. Over is the play.
The Thunder are in the same situation as they were in the Denver series, where they lost Game 1 at home and Game 3 on the road and responded with the Game 4 win. They only went 2-5 against the spread in the series but went on to win Game 7, and I think it's going to be something like that here as well as the Thunder play Game 4 at Indiana. The Thunder fizzled out in the 4th quarter, scoring only 18 points. It was trending over all game until late when OKC couldn't make a shot. They shot 47% for the game and 45% from three, and still lost thanks to 17 turnovers. The Pacers aren't going to slow down. Just the over.
The Thunder are one of the best cover teams of all time, winning 81 games and covering 63 times, and doing so at home and on the road equally. They've already shown the Pacers are overmatched by winning and covering three of the four meetings this season. The Pacers Game 1 win was a one-time thing. In Game 2, the Thunder shot 49% from the field, 39% from three-point range, and scored 123 points. That was just an average Thunder game where they had all their parts working. They've been doing it all season. Thunder to cover.
Game 2 went over the total with the Thunder winning 123-107, making it four out of the last five meetings going over the total. The Thunder have come in now winning and covering three of the last four meetings against the Pacers, and the Pacers win in Game 1 barely happened. Both teams consistently run and score quickly. The Pacers started slow in the first quarter and first half of both games, but came alive in the second half. Both teams will score plenty. I don't see how that changes in Indianapolis. Over the total.
For the Thunder to get back on track and win Game 2, they're going to need Jalen Williams to show up. He's only scored over 20 points twice in his last six games. Once he misses a couple of shots, he's reluctant to shoot. In Game 1, he was 6 of 19 shooting and only had 17 points. With the importance of Game 2 for the Thunder season, he needs to show up, and he knows it. He averaged 21.6 points in the regular season and 20.2 in the playoffs. Batman needs his Robin. I'm betting Williams over because he'll have plenty of opportunities to get over 22 points.
The Pacers won 111-110 in Game 1, which makes it six consecutive games the Pacers have scored 111 or more against Oklahoma City. So why is the total dropping to 108.5? The thinking here is that the Thunder are going to come back to life and show the dominance they have throughout the season, but I've seen the Pacers win four out of the last six meetings, and the Thunder are somewhat rattled. They got punched in the gut. The Thunder are going to score plenty, and the Pacers are going to score more than 109.
The Pacers pulled out a win in Game 1 in the last second after trailing the whole game. That's the third consecutive series the Pacers won on the road in Game 1. Why can't they do it again in Game 2? What I'm betting first is the total over because they owe me one from Game 1 that should have gone over. The Pacers only scored 20 points in the first quarter and 45 for the first half as they turned the ball over 20 times. And somehow they found a way to win by scoring 66 points in the second half and turning the ball over only four times. Just six turnovers from the Thunder, but they shot poorly at 40%. Over.