Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't scored as much as I’d think he would like in the Western Conference Finals. He averaged 31 points in the regular season and 28.5 in the 11 postseason games. There's going to be one game or two games where he lays down his mark, and I think tonight is it. He hasn't scored over 30 points in the three games against the Spurs. He’s been passing way too much, but it works for them. The MVP puts a stamp on the series and gets near 40, I’ll bet. SGA gets over 29.5 points.

The Thunder and Spurs have gone over the total in four straight meetings, including all three of the Western Conference Finals. But the total for the game hasn't moved, even though they put up 231 in the last game. The total is still sitting at 219.5. I think this game is going to be like the last two, with the Spurs chasing OKC. The Thunder have gone over in their last 6 games and 9 of ten. I think they have taken away the advantage the Spurs had coming in, having won four of the five meetings in the regular season. The deep Thunder bench that played lots of minutes all season is paying dividends now. This game gets over.

Game 1 needed overtime to get over the total, and Game 2 was a given that the game would go over after a 31-31 first quarter. I think that the Spurs will bring the same type of intensity in Game 3 as they did in Game 2, where they played extremely well, hitting 49% of their shots from the field and making 40% from 3-point range. Turnovers were the only thing that stopped them, even though they also withstood having 21 turnovers in Game 1. They've gone over the total three straight times, and I think they make it four straight. The over is the play.

The Knicks took Game 1 by overcoming a 22-point deficit in the final 7:52 of regulation, sending the game into overtime, where the Cavs ran out of gas and never led. I was worried about the long rest by the Knicks, and they shook it off after three quarters, and then the Cavs showed some fatigue after playing seven games against the Pistons. Nine days rest for the Knicks, 2 days rest for the Cavs. And the Cavs ended up shooting 40% for the game while the Knicks shot 48%. The Cavs need more production out of Evan Mobley and James Harden, and I think they get it tonight. Cavs to win.

The Spurs had 21 turnovers in Game 1 of the West Finals against the Thunder, but still won 122-115 in overtime. Victor Wembanyama scored 41 points, had 24 rebounds, and 3 blocks, but changed the trajectory of so many other shot attempts. That's been the story all season in this series that the Spurs have now won 5 and lost 1 against the World Champion Thunder. Game 2 is supposed to be when the Thunder come out and even the series as they did against Denver and Indiana in last year's playoffs. But I think Wemby is going to remain a thorn in the side of the Thunder as he has all season. I took the points with the Spurs.

Dylan Harper comes off a great Game 1 performance at Oklahoma City and is now averaging 14.6 points per game in the playoffs. His total for Game 2 has been set at 11.5 points. We don't even know the status of starting point guard De’Aaron Fox. He’s questionable and will be a game-time decision. Fox might not play in Game 2. Harper had one of the best postseason games in NBA rookie history. He’s writing his own history. The game comes to Harper so effortlessly. He’s leading the team, and they’re following. Harper over the total is easy to root for, even if Fox plays and he comes off the bench.

When the Cavs are at their absolute best, they dictate the pace and get over the total as they did in four of the final five games in the Detroit series. I think they're going to play well at Madison Square Garden tonight, and the total is only 217.5. In the three regular-season meetings, the lowest total was 228.5 and the highest total was 241.5. The Knicks haven't played in 9 days, and they might experience some rust early on, but the Cavs are only two days removed from crushing it in Detroit. I like the Cavs to play their normal game and get over the total.

The Cavaliers will play competitive basketball when James Harden and Donovan Mitchell have a decent game, but when Evan Mobley steps up as well, the Cavs play at a championship level. They proved it by winning four of the final five games against Detroit in the last round. Mobley went over his point total in his last four games. He averaged 16 points in three meetings with the Knicks this season. During the regular season, Mobley averaged 18.2 points per game, and in the postseason, he averaged 17 points per game. The total is too tempting to pass at 15.5. Mobley over the point total.

The Knicks won both meetings in New York this season against the Cavaliers, but the Cavs have won five of the last seven meetings and covered six of those games. The largest spread in their meetings this season has been the Knicks, favored by 5 on Christmas when they only won by two. The Cavs are healthier than they've been all season, and yet the spread is 7.5? Cleveland is fresh off a Game 7 win at Detroit two nights ago, while the Knicks have been off for 9 days. The Knicks had won seven in a row, covering six, but I think the Cavs have some demons in the closet they need to set straight from last season as the No. 1 seed.

Dylan Harper is one of the Spurs I have marked as the X factor for them to do well in this series. He's come out strong in the playoffs, averaging 13.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. He also steals the ball 1.2 times a game. All his totals are up from the regular season, and yet we have a total based on his regular-season average, which is 3.4 rebounds per game. He's a different player in these playoffs and has a special duty coming off the bench. He’s gone over his rebound total in his last 9 games. Over 3.5 half rebounds is the play.

The series everyone wanted to see in the West is happening as the No. 1-seeded Thunder face the No. 2-seeded Spurs beginning tonight in Oklahoma City. The Spurs have the edge in the season series, winning four of five games. Still, in reality, it's only three of four, as in the last game on February 4th, the Thunder didn't have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, or Chet Holmgren playing. But nobody else took out the Thunder three or four this year. The reason for the Spurs success against the Thunder is Victor Wembanyama, who doesn't block every shot but alters the shot attempts by the Thunder. Then you've got to make your shots, and the Spurs have been doing that. Spurs.

The No. 1-seeded Pistons lost a critical Game 5 at home against the Cavaliers, and now they're on the brink of elimination in Game 6 at Cleveland. Star player Cade Cunningham did his job with 39 points off 13-of-27 shooting and 6-of-10 from 3-point range, but the problem is that nobody else helped him as the team shot under 40% without Cunningham’s stats. And that's where James Harden's veteran savvy came into play as he went to the free-throw line 14 times and scored 30 points in the game. It was a balanced attack, and the Cavs shot 40% from 3-point range and won despite having 16 turnovers. Cavs close it out tonight, making up for their failure as the No. 1 seed last year.

The Spurs shot better (48%) than the Timberwolves in Game 4, had fewer turnovers, and also had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but Minnesota won 114-109. Victor Wembanyama was called for a Flagrant 2 technical foul in the second quarter and finished the game with 4 points. Minnesota's frenzied swarming defense created the situation that Wembanyama fell for. That's what this Timberwolves team does, and they've been doing it for quite a while against the Spurs, dating back to 2024. Minnesota won five straight games until the Spurs won in January, and now they're tied 2-2 in the second round. The Spurs might play with the same intensity as Game 2, but I think Minnesota plays a tight game like Game 4. Timberwolves.

Three of the last four meetings between the Pistons and Cavaliers have stayed under the total, but one was as high as 239.5 and ended 114-110. We're looking at Game 1 set at 216.5. At the last meeting on March 3, the total was 228.5, and it was 113-109. In the regular season, that game stays under, but in the postseason, that game goes over. I like the Cavs to take the Pistons to the very end. I like the Cavs to run their normal game, and what you get is this Game 1 over.

The 76ers carry some serious momentum into the playoffs, having won their last three games against the Celtics and three of four at Boston. The reason I like the Sixers in this series is that they're healthy and they hung tough with the Knicks this season, winning both games in New York. They lost by three in Philadelphia on January 24th and lost on February 11th when Paul George and Joel Embiid did not play. The Knicks also won three straight against the Hawks, but I think a healthy Embiid tilts the scales for the Sixers in this series, and it starts by winning game one. This is the highest spread in all their meetings this season. Sixers plus the points.