MLB Expert Picks

Jose Soriano has been unhittable for the Angels. ...

Jose Soriano has allowed only 1 run all season...

This Logan Gilbert player prop trend has a 75% success rate over the last three seasons. …

It's a nice bounce-back spot for Arizona. ...

Sean Burke has skills but he allowed four runs last time out and has lasted over 5.1 innings just once. That’s not good with a porous bullpen behind him and against a D’backs lineup that’s scored six-plus runs in four out of the last six, and at least four runs in 10 of 11. Merrill Kelly was good enough in his lone start and he’s backed by a bullpen that’s three runs better than Chicago’s.

Thought the Twins would be my AL auto-fade on the road this season, but it's apparently the White Sox yet again. Not that I'll exactly be backing them at home, either. Tonight's starting pitcher Sean Burke was winless with a 4.74 ERA in 12 total appearances away last year (eight starts) and got clocked in his lone road start in 2026. Arizona's Merrill Kelly is usually good for a quality start(ish) and only a couple of Pale Hose have seen him career. These lineups aren't close -- Corbin Carroll will start despite leaving Sunday with a minor injury. The Snakes (7-3 at home) try to avoid B2B losses for the first time in nearly three weeks. They should.

It's not easy backing a Royals team that only has 7 wins in their first 23 games, but I think we've got a good spot to lean on a Royals First Five. As usual, I'm leaning on the pitching matchup with Kris Bubic over Shane Baz. Bubic hasn't been great to start the season, but his metrics are far more favorable than Baz. The Royal bats have been quiet, but they do fare better against righties and Baz allows enough baserunners that I think we get a Royals First Five winner.

Orioles SP Shane Baz hasn’t been sharp, but when he has been, it’s been away from Camden Yards. That checks with the last couple years; he’s nearly two runs better. That would be good here in KC vs. a struggling Royals lineup. Meanwhile, the O’s can get to Kris Bubic, who’s given up 4-5 runs in his last two starts not vs. the White Sox, and a bullpen that has a 6.53 ERA the last two weeks.

Jesus Luzardo has been a disaster in three of his four stars, the lone bright spot vs. the hapless Rockies. The Cubs, meanwhile, have a .909 OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks. The Phillies’ similar split is .558 – not good enough against Shota Imanaga, who in three April starts has a 1.05 ERA and 0.53 WHIP.

The Cubs offense has somewhat broken out in the last week, but still isn't fully firing. There were good signs from Michael Busch and Alex Bregman on Monday. The Cubs obliterated Jesus Luzardo last week and see him again. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts, dominated the Phillies last time out and the Phillies are putrid against lefties (.176/.274/.275).

I wrote something longer on the Mets via the CBS Sports betting site but maybe the worm is about to turn on an 11-game skid. They got a pitching change to their benefit tonight with the Twins shifting to Simeon Woods Richardson (0-3, 6.10 ERA) opposite NY stud Nolan McLean. And now apparently Juan Soto is back Wednesday. So it's time to start a winning streak Tuesday. Although it'd be fun to hear all the noise at Citi Field if the Twins score like 6 in the top of the first with "fuhgaddeaboutitt!" likely being the least offensive thing coming from the stands. So I'll limit this to a half then so I can at least half-enjoy it if that happens.

The gap between these two teams in terms of talent is close to as big as any two in the majors. The Braves are flying high and the Nats' record is still better than it should be. Nats starter Foster Griffin got hit by the Pirates last time out and the Braves' offense is better than the Pirates. Reynaldo Lopez can hold the Nats in check, too, but the biggest difference here is the bullpens. The Nats have a pitiful relief corps while the Braves' back-end stellar trio of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias are all rested after not being needed Monday.

Reds F5 ML is -135 or worse, but the full game ML is -110? I like Chase Burns a lot and believe the edge is with the Reds in the F5 over Steven Matz, but Cincy's bullpen is partially the reason they're 15-8 and leading the NL Central. The offense has contributed to a -3 run differential, and starting pitching has been an issue, but the bullpen is leading MLB with a 2.23 ERA and 10 saves. Burns is their best starter now and the bullpen has almost everyone available, so I like the Reds to win. Plus, they have been road warriors this year, going 9-2 away from Cincy, and winning four in a row. Reds TT over 3.5 at -127 0.5u as well.

The Tigers travel back from Boston after yesterday's Patriot's Day loss. The Brewers were off yesterday and come in off a loss to Miami that broke a four game win streak. Detroit has won 8/10 but split the four game series in Boston prior to this. The Brewers come in a bit fresher with all of their high leverage bullpen arms well rested, while the same can't be said for the Tigers. Detroit's offense is in the bottom 1/3 of MLB against lefties thus far, and Milwaukee is ranked 7th against righties with a .755 OPS. The numbers do dip on the road for the Brew Crew but I still think they have the deeper lineup and get the benefit of added rest.

Houston got only its third win in the past 15 overall and second road win of the year (in 11 tries) on Monday but also was facing a weak link in the Cleveland rotation. That's certainly not the case here in stellar rookie lefty Parker Messick (3-0, 1.05 ERA). Needless to say, he's not keeping that up and did throw a lot of pitches last time out in taking a no-no into the ninth. But until he starts failing. Appears to be the weak link in the Houston rotation in 29-year-old rookie Ryan Weiss (0-2, 6.75 ERA).