Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.

It's Alabama and Michigan playing in the Sweet 16 at the United Center in Chicago, and I think Michigan has caught its second wind. In their first two games of the tournament, they scored 101 points and 95 points, giving everyone visions of their play in November and December when they were putting 100 on everyone. I think the loss to Purdue in the Big Ten championship game gave them a chance to refocus on what Michigan basketball is about. First off, they have the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.7 shooting, and secondly, they have the No. 6 offense in the nation, shooting 51.1%. Alabama had a puzzling loss to Mississippi in the SEC tournament as an 11.5-point favorite. Michigan covers.

In last year's NCAA Tournament, Alabama went 25 of 51 from beyond the arc and destroyed BYU 113-88. The Crimson Tide followed that up by losing by 20 to Duke, a game in which Alabama went 8 of 32 from deep. Now Alabama faces top-seeded Michigan in a similar spot, after torching Texas Tech from deep (19 of 42). Shooting treys will be much more difficult against the nation's No. 2 defense, per KenPom. Look for the Wolverines to win by double digits.

This number dropped to 9.5 at BetMGM. I think it might get there at other books too but I'm going to hop on it now. These two teams are going to race up and down the court. Both rank top 25 in pace, so it will come down to which defense gets more stops. That’s where Michigan has a big edge. Alabama got by Hofstra and a short-handed Texas Tech squad. Michigan is an entirely different challenge though. The Wolverines rank sixth in offensive efficiency and have athletic big men who can run the floor. Alabama will score, but the Wolverines will score more. I like Michigan to pull away and win by double digits.