Alabama has played 32 games this season. They allowed opponents to score at least 74 points 27 times. There are a few reasons to think Hofstra will be the 28th. The Pride are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Defensive rebounding is an area where Alabama really struggles, so the Pride should get second chance opportunities. Hofstra was also the top three-point shooting team in the CAA. The Tide give up a lot of open looks from the perimeter, so this plays into the underdog's hands. Put it all together and I think win or lose, the Pride gets to 74 points on Friday.
A moderate points total was probable even before Monday's big news. Now, with Alabama suspending No. 2 scorer Aden Holloway (18 ppg) following his drug-related arrest, this number seems almost unattainable. Hofstra plays turtle-like, as reflected by the Pride's 313th rating for possessons per game. Partly as a result, it yields 66 ppg, 18th fewest in Divsion 1. The NCAA Tournament is guard-oriented, and Hofstra could maintain a degree of pace control with CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis and conference Freshman of the Year Preston Edmead. A spread bet -- now at +11.5 -- is worth considering, but the safer option given Holloway's almost certain absence is an Under.
