Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.
West Virginia has found different sources of offense in the College Basketball Crown, including 6-7 freshman DJ Thomas. When the Mountaineers don’t have to rely exclusively on Honor Huff, they’re tough to beat. Oklahoma has the superior scorers but West Virginia should slow the game down. Ross Hodge’s team is still riding the momentum of an unlikely comeback vs. Stanford and can take this to the wire.
Arizona scored at will inside the arc throughout its Sweet 16 matchup with Arkansas and after halftime of the Elite Eight game against Purdue. The Wildcats don’t like to take a lot of threes; that could prove problematic against the nation’s No. 1 defense. Michigan has the size and connectivity to bother Arizona’s normally unstoppable 2-point offense. The Wolverines hold opponents to 44 percent inside the arc. In a titanic matchup of peaking teams, I like Michigan to execute late, win and cover.
The Lobos have covered six straight games, and they've looked dominant in the NIT. New Mexico's closest win in this tournament was by 15 points. Tulsa relies on 3-point shooting but will face a Lobos defense that excels at guarding the perimeter. Lay the points.
Oklahoma covered seven straight to end the season, with senior guard Nijel Pack scoring 19-plus points six times. The Sooners face a depleted Colorado team that just lost three of its top four scorers as well as its leading rebounder and steals leader to the transfer portal. This number ballooned as a result of the Buffs' defections, but OU definitely is capable of winning this one by double digts.
Auburn is the biggest name in the NIT and it continues to draw inflated lines. That's resulted in the Tigers, who are without 6-10 senior KeShawn Murphy, failing to cover each of their three NIT wins. Auburn is a more talented offensive team, but the Redbirds are better defensively. They just quieted a large hostile crowd in Dayton. Now they should have strong fan support at the neutral site in Indianapolis. Grab the points.
UConn rarely gets to suit up as an underdog, and I think the experienced Huskies will relish that role. Duke has not been as dominant as expected in the postseason. This is a quick turnaround for Caleb Foster after he returned from his foot fracture vs. St. John’s. Look for another Duke game that goes down to the wire.
Tennessee destroyed short-handed Iowa State on the glass 43-22 and shot 51 percent en route to a 14-point win Friday. It will be much tougher to duplicate those feats, or even come close to them, against Michigan. I expect the Vols to struggle with their post-up offense vs. Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson. Right now, Michigan and Arizona are a cut above everyone else. Look for the Wolverines to pull away in the second half.
Both teams are elite offensively, but Arizona is much better on the defensive end. Purdue was fortunate to get past Texas, while the Wildcats are clicking on all cylinders. I would play this up to 6.5.
In last year's NCAA Tournament, Alabama went 25 of 51 from beyond the arc and destroyed BYU 113-88. The Crimson Tide followed that up by losing by 20 to Duke, a game in which Alabama went 8 of 32 from deep. Now Alabama faces top-seeded Michigan in a similar spot, after torching Texas Tech from deep (19 of 42). Shooting treys will be much more difficult against the nation's No. 2 defense, per KenPom. Look for the Wolverines to win by double digits.
The Huskies took advantage of a UCLA team that was undermanned inside. That won't be the case against Michigan State, which looks fresh following an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament. The deeper Spartans showed their ceiling down the stretch, beating both Purdue and Illinois. They've been tested by the nation's sixth-toughest schedule. Look for Tom Izzo to improve to 12-5 SU in the Sweet 16.
Many are expecting regression from Iowa after the Hawkeyes stunned No. 1 seed Florida. I think Iowa has room to improve, given star guard Bennett Stirtz went 0 for 9 from deep against the Gators. These teams split in the regular season, Iowa winning by five at home and Nebraska winning by nine in overtime in Lincoln. The Hawkeyes won the rebounding battle in both matchups, and they just held their own on the glass against imposing Florida. In a game that should come down to the wire, I took the points.
Auburn has won 66 straight non-conference home games, and that streak likely continues Wednesday vs. Nevada. But this is too many points to give a Wolf Pack team that's finally getting good minutes from 6-10 senior Joel Armotrading (10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks last time out against Liberty). Nevada also should have a coaching edge. Take the points.
Dayton is 14-3 at home and gets to play its first home game in the NIT on Wednesday. The Flyers couldn't use their arena last week due to the First Four. They are as healthy as they've been all year and peaking down the stretch, going 10-2 SU with the only losses coming to VCU. Illinois State comes in making just 32.7 percent of its 3-pointers on the road. Look for the Redbirds to struggle against the bigger Flyers.
The Razorbacks are on an incredible roll, with seven straight wins and an explosive offense led by Darius Acuff. But this is still the same defense that gave up 88 points to High Point, 111 to Florida and 117 to Alabama. Arizona is the more complete team and won't mind playing at a fast pace. Lay the points.