12 Expert Picks
Is the wrong team favored? ...
Miami won the last meeting, 48-33, in 2023 at Miami...
Can JMU fare any better vs. the Ducks than Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago? ...
UNLV is 9-1 straight up when they are a favorite...
The Hawaii Bowl features an intriguing matchup...
Pitt thrived on the road this season...
Would anyone like to volunteer to join Clemson's
Will LSU be motivated to play in the Texas Bowl?...
USC will take the field without some playmakers
One star is staying, one is leaving.
Will Bryce Underwood play for Michigan? ...
Will Cincinnati's late season slide continue in the Liberty Bowl?...
This should be more of a defensive game. Oklahoma gets back Mason Thomas to add to already their above average rushing defense. The Crimson Tide, and Oklahoma’s running game hasn’t been good as each are averaging under 126 yards per game. Ty Simpson has been inconsistent down the stretch and since the Sooners defense is only allowing 2.5 yards per carry, Alabama will continue to lean heavily on their passing attack. However, the Sooners defense is only allowing six yards per pass. Oklahoma has struggled offensively as well and the under is a combined 19-5-1 in each team's last 25 games.
Home teams went 4-0 in Year 1 of the 12-team field, but the talent differential in those games was much greater than it will be when Alabama and Oklahoma battle. The Crimson Tide’s embarrassing loss in the SEC Championship Game, coupled with the Sooners’ two-point win at Bama last month, should have this line higher, which is telling in terms of the belief in the visitors. Teams “disrespected” like the Tide often use that as significant motivation in rematches, and Bama certainly has a lot to prove given the way it finished the season. The Tide outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards in that first game, and in college football, it is exceedingly tough to beat the same team twice in one season.
I've changed my opinion on Alabama for this game, and I'm siding with Oklahoma almost entirely because they're at home. In this playoff round last year, all of the home teams had a huge edge that carried them to victory. I think Norman, Oklahoma, has the edge that Alabama on the road can't match. I've been watching Alabama since October 25, which was a game at Columbia against South Carolina, who came to play as a 12.5 point underdog. Alabama won 29-22, but they didn't cover. They looked sluggish against LSU, and then Oklahoma came to Tuscaloosa and laid down some defense, winning 23-21. Alabama will struggle to run the ball. The Oklahoma defense and the crowd at Norman, Oklahoma, lead the Sooners.