The temptation to simply side with rampant Indiana at whatever the price is understandable, given the dominating form over Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs, seen off a combined 94-25. Yet we recall struggles vs. Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State in the Big Ten final; the Buckeyes are the only common foe with the Canes, and Miami arguably was more impressive in its 24-14 Cotton Bowl win over OSU. Indiana has been a bully most of this season, and the script could flip on the Hoosiers if Miami holds its nerve, establishes the punishing ground game that has helped it get to the final, and QB Carson Beck meets the moment. Not impossible! Play Miami-Fla (at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami).

The "revenge factor" from the regular season has been worth noting since conference championship weekend, as six times in eight, the losing team from the first meeting has won the rematch. A trend that would favor the Webfoots atoning for the 30-20 October loss at home to the Hoosiers. Worth noting how IU's bread-and-butter ground game was kept in check by Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon during the regular season, and from there is where the Hoosiers derive their KO power. The earlier clash was a split-decision in IU's favor, not a knockout, and it is highly unlikely the Hoosiers bully Oregon the way they did Alabama last week. The Ducks' manhandling of Texas Tech suggests a real chance tonight. Play Oregon (at Atlanta)

No surprise if we get a rock-fight here not too dissimilar from the Big Ten title game at Indy between the Hoosiers and Ohio State. Maybe even a bit slower-paced than the October meeting between these two at Eugene that ended in a split decision for Indiana, 30-20, two late picks off of Dante Moore finally deciding the outcome. Indiana's punishing infantry, which set up Fernando Mendoza's Heisman campaign thru the air, only gained 3 ypc at Autzen Stadium, and the Ducks just blanked a Texas Tech side that couldn't score after entering Miami scoring at nearly 44 ppg. The IU defense, however, also made going difficult for Oregon in October, and this rematch might be played in the teens. Play Oregon-Indiana Under (at Atlanta)

It's now four straight wins for Miami vs. SEC opposition after taking out Texas A&M on December 20 before KOing Ohio State in the quarterfinals at Arlington. Ole Miss and Patrick Mahomes-like Trinidad Chambliss will provide the next test tonight in Glendale, but the Canes have future NFL players on their DL, especially Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, reflected in a Denver Broncos-like 46 sacks this season for the Miami defense. While Chambliss looked magical last week vs. Georgia, the Bulldogs still managed 34 points, and this should be a chance for Carson Beck and the Miami offense to move a bit more freely than when playing it close to the vest the first two rounds. Play Miami-Fla (Fiesta Bowl at Glendale)

The old saying "defense wins championships" might still apply. The Canes certainly think so after keeping Texas A&M and Ohio State in check through two rounds of the playoffs. To wit: Miami didn't allow at TD to either for more than 6 Qs of playoff action before the Buckeyes finally got on the board. Granted, chasing Reb QB Trinidad Chambliss for 60 minutes will be a chore, but the Canes have various future NFL performers like Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor collapsing pockets while pressuring enemy QBs, and helping Miami register a Denver Broncos-like 46 sacks. As Carson Beck and the Miami offense have played it patiently and leaned on the defense, clearing 52 points might be a chore. Play Miami-Ole Miss Under.

Hats off to Jake Dickert, who looked to have the ACC"s mystery team at Media Days in Charlotte last July, with no one quite sure to what to make of the "Made in the Dark" Deacs roster. Steering Wake to an 8-4 mark while successfully deploying a pair of unlikely QBs (journeyman Robby Ashford and Charlotte transfer Deshawn Purdie) , the Deacs overachieved all season as they also covered seven of their last nine games. Meanwhile Jeff Lebby's MSU won't have QB Blake Shapen, just as they didn't in the Egg Bowl as frosh Kamario Taylor took snaps vs. Ole Miss, and the Bulldogs only got bowl-eligible at 5-7 on a technicality (not enough 6-6 teams to fill slots). Play Wake (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

On the plus side, both of these star QBs (Arizona's Noah Fifta & SMU's Kevin Jennings) will play at the Holiday Bowl. As the campaign progressed, however, we began looking harder at the Cats, who started to resemble their 2023 entry under Jedd Fisch that had turned into a juggernaut at the end of the season and beat Oklahoma in Alamo Bowl...with Fifita at QB. Fifita (26 TD passes, just 5 picks in 2025) was doing many of the same things this season as Brent Brennan got his regime back on course after a difficult 2024. Meanwhile, we wonder about the Ponies' focus after blowing their chance at an ACC title game berth in the season-ending loss at Cal. Play Arizona (Holiday Bowl)

Cincy's season disintegrated in November after a 7-1 start had fans dreaming of the playoffs. After the defense had collapsed in a 45-23 loss to TCU at the end of November, the Bearcats settled for this Liberty bid before the portal took a chunk out of the roster, specifically QB Brendan Sorsby, who will be replaced in Memphis by sr. Brady Lichtenberg, who has taken limited snaps in his career (and just 6 pass attempts this season). Defections elsewhere on the roster, too, in stark contrast to Navy, will a full contingent including decorated QB Blake Horvath ending his career. Much like depleted UConn vs. Army and its option at the Fenway Bowl, the Bearcats look at a disadvantage. Play Navy (Liberty Bowl)

The "rematch revenge" and "playoff bye" angles both sit with Ole Miss tonight. Yet, we suspect neither might apply, as Georgia has as much big game-experience as any program in the country. The Dawgs are also a bit more punishing when running the ball than in past years, with north-south RB Nate Frazier plus hardscrabble QB Gunner Stockton. In the October 18 win, Georgia rallied from a 35-26 deficit entering the 4th Q to score the last 17 points as ultimate "gamer" Stockton passed for 4 TDs. The Bulldogs also rushed for 221 yards en route to a 510-yard offensive output. We also wonder if this is where the Rebs (and QB Trinidad Chambliss) might begin to miss Lane Kiffin. Play Georgia (Sugar Bowl)

For all of the Indiana successes, there is a fundamental angle worth watching, as the Hoosiers, despite featuring Heisman QB Fernando Mendoza, are essentially run-first featuring RBs Roman Hemby & Kaelon Black. Yet against the most-stout defenses (Iowa, Oregon, Penn State), IU gained barely 3 ypc. Alabama has cleared many challenges, and famously rallied from 17-0 down in the first-round win over the Sooners. The Tide has defensive quicks and playmakers that could rattle Mendoza as the case with OU's John Mateer in the first round, and QB Ty Simpson has been a consistent playmaker. Lastly, we should mention that after Ohio State's loss, first-round bye teams are now 0-5 in the playoffs since last year. Play Alabama (Rose Bowl at Pasadena)

The "go against the bye team" playoff argument wouldn't alone be enough to suggest against what has been a rampant Texas Tech. Yet for all of the Red Raider exploits, we're not sure they have faced a truly elite offense (BYU, while good, might not qualify), but they definitely see that in the Ducks, who have the potential top draft pick (if he comes out) in QB Dante Moore, and an offense that scored better than 38 ppg this season. Maybe we just need a bit more evidence on Texas Tech vs. top-caliber foes other than BYU. We also suspect Oregon put it on cruise control a bit early vs. JMU, resulting in that first-round blown spread cover. Play Oregon (Orange Bowl at Miami)

We might have seen a sneak preview of tonight's scoreline in the most-recent games involving these sides featuring top-ten defenses. Ohio State's nation's-best stop unit looks especially airtight, and it will take a much-smoother performance from Carson Beck and the Miami offense than we saw int he first round vs. Texas A&M to envision the Canes doing much damage tonight. On the other hand, Miami's stop unit, another top ten scoring defense, completely flustered Texas A&M's Marcel Reed with its speed in the first round, and did not like the reaction of Ohio State's frosh QB Julian Sayin in the Big Ten title game vs. Indiana when things weren't going so swimmingly. Play Miami-Ohio State Under

The Wolverines are used to distractions, as now-dismissed HC Sherrone Moore was already suspended for a couple of game earlier this season, and of course Jim Harbaugh missed several games due to suspension a few years ago. Former Charlotte HC and longtime Ann Arbor aide Biff Poggi, who stepped in for Moore earlier this season and won both games, reassumes command for the Citrus Bowl. The personnel is much different from early last season when Texas rolled 31-12, and there are opt-outs to consider, but this spread looks too high, as we suspect Arch Manning will have issues. If Bryce Underwood can make a few plays vs. a Texas D that just dismissed coordinator Pete Kwiatokwski, Michigan has a chance. Play Michigan (Citrus Bowl)

Telling, perhaps, that many ACC sources are reluctant to endorse Duke in El Paso, concerned about the lack of consistency this season. Our read on these coaches (Blue Devils' Manny Diaz, 0-3 in bowls in his career, and Sun Devils' Kenny Dillingham) is that Dillingham is more likely to have his ASU at a fever pitch in El Paso, after the Sun Devils circled the wagons around backup QB Jeff Sims, who proved serviceable in the absence of Sam Leavitt. Meanwhile, Duke's season included a bit too much back-and-forth, and we suspect, as do many regional observers that the Blue Devils maybe left their best effort in Charlotte when upsetting Virginia in the ACC title game. Play ASU (Sun Bowl at El Paso)

The fundamentals fascinate in Tampa! Vandy will be met with pure physicality on the Iowa side, as the Hawkeyes will try to use their rugged offensive front to control the line of scrimmage and help QB Mark Gronowski better deal with expected gambles by the Dores defense. How Gronowski copes with different stacks and blitz packages, and improvises when he has the chance, will be key. Meanwhile, will the magic of Diego Pavia last another game for the Vandy offense? Iowa's secondary might have four future NFL players, which could allow Phil Parker some freedom with his front seven that is rarely overpowered at the point of attack. Are these fundamentals just not right for Vandy? Play Iowa (Relia Quest Bowl)