Bruce's Picks (1 Live)
This playoffs line has whipsawed for the past two weeks, but we're still talking a very narrow range and it's really pick the winner. In that case, an argument for the zig-zag in rematches that we noted in conference title weekend seems very much in play, simply because we can't see the Sooners replicating the dynamics of their 23-20 win last month at Tuscaloosa. Brent Venables' big-play defense keyed a 3-0 TO edge that night for OU, but the Sooners offense hasn't looked smooth since QB John Mateer injured his wrist in September. True, Bama's SEC title game effort won't be enough, but QB Ty Simpson has won some big games on the SEC trail this season. Play Alabama.
If we had a ballot for Coach of the Year, we might give Kennesaw's Jerry Mack a vote. That the Owls could win 10 games and the C-USA title in just their second year of FBS action should garner Mack a few votes. Even Indiana's Curt Cignetti didn't inherit a task so daunting, as Mack was able to improve Kennesaw's athleticism, with foot speed to unnerved conference foes. Meanwhile, Wofford transfer QB Amari Odom developed into a dual-threat playmaker responsible for 25 TDs. No knocks on Lance Taylor's MAC champ Broncos., but WMU didn't face this sort of defensive quickness since maybe the Illinois loss on September 13, and not sure any smashmouth tactics succeed at Myrtle Beach. Play Kennesaw State (at Conway, SC)
Not a dull moment at Mizzou State, where HC Ryan Beard recently moved to Coastal Carolina, and where SMU OC Casey Woods was just hired as his replacement. For tonight, OC Nick Petrino will serve as interim coach. Worth noting, perhaps, that both of these sides will have their regular-season QBs available in Frisco, as Jacob Clark for Mizzou State and Jaylen Raynor for Arkansas State have decided to stay and play. The venue tonight suggests the sort of conditions that could help the offenses, indoors at the climate-controlled Ford Center in Frisco, at the Dallas Cowboys complex. Both teams were involved in high-scoring games late in the season and expect some of the same tonight. Play Missouri State-Arkansas State Over (Xbox Bowl at Frisco)
Though the Commander-in-Chief Under trend hasn't been quite as compelling in the past few years, the fundamentals still suggest it be the first angle explored in these service academy games. So overwhelming had the trend been for years that we saw this matchup posted at a mere 28 (!) total two years ago. Dueling options almost mirroring one another keep the clock and usually the chains moving, and while Navy might be able to deviate slightly more with the more-accomplished Blake Horvath at QB, we doubt the Mids get to 31 points like they did a year ago. Unders are 16-2-1 in the last 19 Army-Navy games (though over last year)! Play Army-Navy Under (at Baltimore)
If you recall, IU was also unbeaten when rolling into Columbus last November before getting rudely dumped, 38-15. The Hoosiers lost contact in the 2nd half because they couldn't budge the Buckeyes defense which allowed only 153 yards. The challenge for IU's Heisman candidate QB Fernando Mendoza is to not run aground vs. OSU as did predecessor Kurtis Rourke, who passed for only 68 yards a year ago at the Big Horseshoe. While there are plenty of shiny objects on the OSU offense, it's the defense which sets the Buckeyes apart, allowing fewer than 8 ppg. Only Texas has come closer to the Buckeyes than 14 since last year's loss to Michigan...17 games ago! Play Ohio State (Big Ten at Indianapolis)
Refer to Ohio State games vs. Texas (14-7), Washington (24-6), and Michigan (27-9)...a common theme among all of those ranked foes was that none of them could even reach double-digit scoring. The Buckeyes can strike quickly with wideouts like Jeremiah Smith and frosh QB Julian Sayin having matured into a responsible leader, though Ryan Day is just as apt to play the field-position game and let his defense (allowing a nation's-low 7.75 ppg) dictate matters. Here's the rub in the Big Ten title game, however...IU plays some pretty good defense, too, in fact ranking second nationally in points allowed at 10.9 ppg. This has all of the earmarks of an old-fashioned Big Ten slugout. Play Ohio State-Indiana Under (Big Ten at Indianapolis)
After Kirby Smart's first Georgia team went 8-5 in 2016, he's gone 107-8 against teams not named Bama...but 1-7 against the Crimson Tide! Bama has also had the Bulldogs' number in SEC title games, with the lone loss to Smart coming in the 2021 national title game...after the Tide had won another SEC championship game from the Bulldogs. Unlike a year ago when Kalen DeBoer's side had its problems away from Tuscaloosa, this Bama edition proved it could win on the road, including at Athens over the Bulldogs in late September. Georgia's chances are minimized on Saturday if QB Gunner Stockton can't perform better than last week vs. Georgia Tech, when completing only 11 passes for a mere 70 yards. Play Alabama (SEC at Atlanta)
Give Miami HC Chuck Martin credit for making an emergency QB switch to frosh Thomas Gotkowski in the last two games, wins over Buffalo and Ball State, that got the RedHawks in position for a return to Ford Field after backup Henry Hesson proved inadequate as a replacement for original starter Dequann Finn, who left the team in early November. Gotkowski tossed 4 TD passes and 0 picks to reward Martin's faith and put Miami-O back into Detroit. Nothing bad to say about WMU, which overachieved for HC Lance Taylor, but note the one Broncos loss in MAC play came in midseason during a 26-17 loss at Oxford in what was Finn's last real hurrah at QB for the RedHawks. Play Miami-Ohio (MAC at Detroit)
Texas Tech has mowed down almost everyone in its path this season and no desire to buck the Red Raiders against any Big 12 foe. Joey McGuire's crew went 11-1 SU and vs. the spread and rarely took a deep breath in the wins, all by 22 points or more. Credit work in the portal from HC Joey McGuire and Football GM James Blanchard who re-stocked both lines with transfers and began dominating from the outset whistle. After battling injuries, QB Behren Morton is back in the saddle, while RBs Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams combined for 1730 YR. BYU wad fortunate the earlier 29-7 loss at Lubbock wasn't worse as the Red Raiders settled for five mostly-short FGs. Play Texas Tech (at Arlington, Tx)
Expected dicey weather tonight in Boise could slow down proceedings in the MW title game. The blue carpet could be covered in white as a mix of rain and slow could turn into slush on the gridiron and perhaps slow these offenses much more than the 56-31 result at midseason on the same field. The Broncos apparently get QB Maddux Madsen back to active duty for the first time in over a month, but there are no secrets between these two, meeting for the third straight time in this title game and fifth time since the 2023. Last year's MW championship showdown ended 21-7 in the Broncos' favor and we might see a scoreline somewhat similar tonight. Play UNLV-Boise State Under.
We'd say Wyo is a pretty tough sell these days. The Cowboy offense has completely stalled, scoring a mere 17 points the past three games combined, now down to 127th ranked in the country. There's a chance that HC Jay Sawvel might sit QB Kaden Anderson and give a look to true freshman Mason Drube. Nothing wrong with a Cowboy defense that ranks 23rd in scoring D at 19.9 ppg, but that hasn't stopped a current three-game skid. For Hawaii, a chance to regroup and get ready for a bowl game after MW title hopes were dashed at UNLV last Friday. At home this season, the Rainbow Warriors are 5-1, and QB Micah Alejado leads an offense that's passed for nearly 3200 yards. Play Hawaii
It's revenge for the Cougs after the Beavers pulled out a 10-7 win in the first meeting on November 1 when OSU made a brief rally for interim HC Robb Akey. It's the same Beavers who didn't cover a spread in their first seven games, subsequently lost to Sam Houston and were whipped by Tulsa. News of Kalen DeBoer Bama aide JaMarcus Sheppard as the new HC for 2026 might simply encourage more Beavers to look at the portal as an escape from Corvallis. For Jimmy Rogers' Wazzu, it has battled a rugged schedule, but note the last two home games were romps past Toledo and La Tech (both likely bowl-bound), and the Cougs need this win to get bowl-eligible themselves. Play Washington State
Expect Paul Bunyan's Axe to be going back to Madison with the Badgers. That's because Wisconsin is looking like, well, Wisconsin again the past month, almost coincidentally since HC Luke Fickell got a vote of confidence and commitment to keep him for 2026 in hopes of a turnaround. Maybe it's already begun as the Badgers are starting un and defend as they used to do both, and frosh QB Carter Smith is at least providing serviceable leadership in November. The Gophers got a career passing day from QB Drake Lindsey last week vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field and still lost, likely because this PJ Fleck edition isn't running the ball nearly as well as his past Gophers teams. Play Wisconsin
Reports of an undercurrent gathering momentum at Penn State to keep interim Terry Smith as the fulltime coach. While remote, it is worth noting that Smith has connected with the team, which now looks like Penn State again. Every effort since taking over for James Franklin has been good, including close losses to Iowa and Indiana, and wins over Michigan State and last week vs. Nebraska both impressed. The catalyst lately has been RB Kaytron Allen, rumbling for 341 rush yards across the past two wins. Rutgers hasn't beaten Penn State since entering the Big Ten and usually hasn't been close...nothing likely changes on Saturday in Piscataway. Play Penn State