Sure, the Aggies have feasted on the bottom half of the SEC. And sure they beat Notre Dame before the Irish got rolling. But A&M is a confident team as it visits Austin. The Aggies offense is a bad matchup for a Longhorns defense that has given up 35.3 points per game over the last four games because of injuries and issues on the back end. Meanwhile the A&M defense ranks second in the country in sacks per game (3.55). That doesn't bode well for the Texas offensive line, which has had major issues this season (though has played better recently, Georgia notwithstanding).

The Longhorns defense has struggled on the back end over the last four games, giving up 38, 31, 35 and 37 points over the last four games. On Friday that defense will be missing linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith (targeting) for the first half and playing with an injured Anthony Hill (hand). That's bad news against an A&M offense that is built to take advantage of open space behind the linebackers. Meanwhile Arch Manning is finally getting some protection, and the Longhorns offense is playing its best ball of the season (35.3 points per game over the last four games). This feels like a 30-27 or 33-30 game.

Toledo is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 40.0 points per game. Conversely, Ball State is 0-5 on the road, losing by 26.4 points. The Rockets boast the No. 1 offense and defense in the MAC, while the Cardinals are 12th (out of 13) in offense and 10th in defense. I realize I'm not getting the best number, but it may not matter.

Warning: I haven't had a good read on Oklahoma this season. But I feel strongly that the Alabama defense is coming off its best game of the year, giving up just three field goals to LSU. The Tide face a Sooners offense that ranks 64th in the country in points per game (28.9) and 77th in yards per game (373.7). Meanwhile, according to reports, the Oklahoma defense is not likely to have its best player, R Mason Thomas. That doesn't bode well against the Tide passing game and quarterback Ty Simpson, who has thrown 21 touchdowns against only one interception this year.

USC welcomes another Big Ten team from the midwest to the Coliseum, and the Trojans have excelled in those situations this season. They have clobbered Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13) and Northwestern (38-17) in L.A. this year. If the Hawkeyes fall behind early, this game could have a similar result. Two units on USC.

I realize the Aggies have had tackling issues against the run. But they have averaged 45.0 points offensively in three road games this season, and their ability to put points on the board will force Missouri to put the ball in the hands of freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who will be making his first college start. That's bad news against a defense that's leading the country in sacks per game (4.00). A&M covers.

The Aggies may be the best team in the SEC, and they've already won on the road in a hostile atmosphere, at Notre Dame. I realize the Texas A&M defense couldn't get a stop last week against Arkansas, but LSU doesn't have near the offense as the Razorbacks. On the other side of the ball, the Aggies have a balanced offense that can both run the rock behind Rueben Owens and quarterback Marcel Reed and burn opponents through the air with receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. Give me two units on A&M.

The Longhorns are Under bettors' best friend. The offense has massive issues blocking, running and passing, while the defense is one of the best in the country (11.3 points per game allowed). Meanwhile the Bulldogs have been solid defensively at home this season, giving up just 16.0 points per game. In addition, they have been excellent in punt coverage (18th in the country), which will be key since Texas punt returner Ryan Niblett has scored a touchdown and set up 10 other points over the last two games. This should be a low-scoring defensive struggle, along the lines of 16-13, with one team likely trying to run out the clock. Two units on the Under.

The offensive line is a disaster for the Longhorns. As a result, running the ball and protecting the quarterback have been major issues. And when quarterback Arch Manning has gotten enough time to throw, he often hears footsteps (which is understandable given the hits he has taken) and misses wide-open receivers or the receivers drop catchable passes. (See last week's Kentucky game.) Meanwhile the Bulldogs are improved since last year and nearly knocked off both No. 15 Tennessee (41-34 in overtime) and Florida (23-21). Last year Mississippi State hung on gamely in a loss in Austin against a much better Longhorns team. This year, the Bulldogs get a breakthrough win, ending a 15-game SEC losing streak.

Auburn has been oh so close in its last three games, losing to Oklahoma (by seven), Texas A&M (six) and Georgia (10). Auburn ranks 11th in the country in rush defense and has the unit to slow down Missouri's potent ground game. On Saturday Hugh Freeze & Co. get their breakthrough win against a Missouri team that will be hitting the road for the first time this season.

I realize that the Bulldogs will be without running back Fluff Bothwell, but are the Gators 10 points better than a Mississippi State team that is much improved this season? The Bulldogs have reinforcements for Bothwell, but Florida will be missing some key defensive players. Even if this gets out of hand, State should be alive for a backdoor cover.

Now that the line has dropped to -7, I'll play the Bulldogs. This is exactly the kind of game that coach Kirby Smart gets his team up for. In addition, this will be the first road test for Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels since surviving a one-score game at Kentucky.

The Gamecocks have certainly been a disappointment this season, one year after fielding a nasty defense and almost making the College Football Playoff. But they still have LaNorris Sellers, who has thrown four fewer interceptions than Oklahoma's John Mateer. And the South Carolina offensive line can only play better after the firing of coach Lonnie Teasley. Meanwhile, the Sooners were exposed last week in their loss to Texas. Oklahoma continues to struggle running the ball, and Mateer will regularly put the ball in harm's way. That bodes well for a South Carolina defense that leads the SEC in interceptions (eight). I expect a low-scoring game, and I'll sprinkle a half unit on the money line.

These teams are much closer than the opening line (-10) indicated. But the reason I'm going against the line movement is because of the Hoosiers' recent offensive performances away from home. In their last three road or neutral games, they have scored 15, 17 and 20 points. That won't be enough to cover in Eugene against a legitimate national title contender.

I admit I was dead-wrong about last week's Texas-Florida game staying Under. The Gators surprisingly pushed around the Longhorns defense in the first half. But the defense played better in the second half after committing more resources to stop the run. I could be wrong about this, but I think Texas will do better against Oklahoma since the Longhorns don't have to deal with a playmaker on the outside the likes of Florida's Dallas Wilson. Meanwhile the Texas offensive line is a hot mess and figures to struggle moving the ball against the Sooners (No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring defense). If OU quarterback John Mateer is ruled out, I expect this total to drop significantly so I'm playing it now.