Expert Picks
Texas Tech and Houston collide under the Friday night lights. ...
Is North Dakota State a wagon this season...
We are buyers on the revamped USC defense operated by new coordinator by Hall of Famer Gary Patterson. It has yielded just one rushing TD in two games. The D even pulled off a pair of safeties in blanking Fresno State. For Louisiana, the scheduling leap from an FCS foe (Lamar) to a national title contender is beyond ambitious. As if the Trojans needed another edge: Kickoff is 10 p.m. (CT), an absurd late show for the Cajuns.
In nine August/September non-conference home games under Lincoln Riley, USC has averaged approximately 55 points per game. USC opponents have averaged 15 PPG in those contests (despite two shutouts). I know that my over trend failed last week but I also didn’t expect Fresno State’s offense to be flat out incompetent against the Trojans. In this late start on Saturday, the biggest question I have is which number will be greater – the number of times Louisiana scores or the number of times they stop USC? It will be close. USC 49, Louisiana 20.
Wait, a visiting current FCS member, albeit a bully on that level, is spotting more than a field goal to an FBS card-carrier off to a blazing start? This matchup might have the wrong team favored. Nevada gutted Western Kentucky last week, while Montana State defeated an opponent (Butler) that doesn't even offer scholarships and rang up 24 points. The Bobcats’ first victim (Utah Tech) just stepped up from FCS. The Wolf Pack are distancing themselves from a 3-9 season in 2025, though one that closed promisingly with two SU wins in the last three games. The Pack is back.
I understand taking Air Force on the opening line of +6.5. That line was crazy and didn't last long. But now there is too much value on North Dakota State that I have to go the other way. I made the Bison -3.5 in this matchup, so getting them on the ML at -122 is purely a numbers play for me. NDSU head coach Tim Polasek knows Air Force from his time at Wyoming and said he spent most of the summer preparing for their option attack. If the defense can limit big plays, I think QB Nathan Hayes and North Dakota State's offensive line will be the difference in the fourth quarter. I grabbed the ML -122 for a half unit at FD.
North Dakota State’s inaugural season in the FBS is off to a smashing success, with two effortless wins by a cumulative score of 71-7. Up next, however, after a pair of soft foes is a late-night matchup at high altitude against a host with a quirky offense. Too many trap doors here to back the Bison. Air Force shut out Duquesne, allowing 10 first-time Falcons starters to wiggle their toes in the big-boy football pool. The defense permitted just 107 yards, while the offense hogged the ball for nearly 41 minutes. While Air Force has been in rebuilding mode recently, it should not be on the receiving end of points against an FBS newbie.
Navy is projected to win the American Conference while Florida Atlantic is projected to finish 9th. Navy has won the last three meetings with Florida Atlantic, and this week's spread is only -4.5. The Midshipmen were 11-2 last season and 7-1 in conference play. They have a new quarterback this season in senior Braxton Woodson that takes over after throwing only six passes in last week's 42-15 win over Towson. Last season, Navy rushed for 397 yards against Florida Atlantic. It's going to be Navy's running game against the Owls' passing game, and I think Navy has more success winning by 10 or more.
Iowa and Iowa State have stayed under the total in seven of their last nine meetings against each other, and I think they're going to stay under this time too on the basis of both teams getting new quarterbacks. Iowa added 16 players through the transfer portal, and none of them were a quarterback to replace Mark Gronowski. Iowa State lost Rocco Becht and head coach Matt Campbell to Penn State, leaving them with Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor to take over at quarterback. No starters return on offense or defense for Iowa State. But this rivalry will have them play better than they are, and the game will stay close. Under is the play.
Ohio State beat Texas two times last year, the first time when they scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to win 28-14 in the playoffs. The second came in August when Julian Sayin didn't make any turnovers, and Arch Manning did in the Buckeyes' 14- 7 win. The Buckeyes had no turnovers in last season's meeting. I think that's going to be the case again Saturday when they meet in Austin. The Buckeyes win with conservative bully football like they did last year in Columbus. Except this year, I think Sayin has a much bigger role in his sophomore season. Manning's going to eventually experience good times, but Ohio State is a better football program, and the Buckeyes take care of business on Saturday.
Iowa State could prove to be the worst P4 team in the country, and I don't believe the market has caught on to how bad this team might be just yet. Yes, this game can get ugly at times, but I believe the Hawkeyes are the superior side this season.
I believe both these teams are two of the best we have, but it's hard for me to trust the Longhorns in a spot like this because they continue to come up short in spots like this. I simply trust the Buckeyes more, and if I can get points with them, I'll take em.
Julian Sayin put up strong passing numbers from a clean pocket against Ball State, but he was sacked twice on just four pressured dropbacks. Arch Manning completed all three of his pressured throws for 57 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.43 seconds per throw and avoiding risky mistakes. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp kept his creative defensive looks under wraps in Week 1, and those could make a big difference here. Texas is also motivated by last year's 14-7 loss, a game in which the Longhorns outgained the Buckeyes 336-203. With Ohio State breaking in new starters in the secondary and having to play in Austin's tough mid-to-upper 90s heat, Texas' strength up front should wear down the Buckeyes as the game goes on.
Last year, the Buckeyes managed a 14-7 victory over the Longhorns in a defensive battle. Quarterbacks Julian Sayin and Arch Manning each put up modest numbers in their respective big-stage debuts, but Sayin’s late TD pass to Carnell Tate was a difference-maker. Now, the scene shifts to Austin for the rematch. While we’re cognizant of Ohio State’s dominance in recent years, the Longhorns have some advantages. Memorial Stadium is a difficult place to play for any opponent in a primetime showcase affair, and the projected 90-degree heat should work in the Longhorns’ favor. What’s more, their defense held Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith to just 43 yards on 6 catches. We see value on the Longhorns at this pick’em price without having lay points.
Last week the Owls didn't have their best game vs Florida, which was expected. But what really stood out to me was how they struggled vs the run. All they will see in this game is see the run game vs Navy. QB Braxton Woodson is a tremendous field general and is explosive with the ball in his hands. Four points is a good number that's worth laying.