Penn State has been underrated all season, and this game is a legitimate toss-up. Planned to take Notre Dame as a favorite, but the line flipped amid a flu that ran through the Fighting Irish locker room. Still, its defense is on fire holding playoff opponents to 13.5 ppg. Penn State was similarly successful (12.0 ppg), but Boise State gained 412 yards (304 passing) only for turnovers (4!) to ruin their day. Georgia, despite the loss of Carson Beck, was a much tougher matchup given its play up front. Both teams are banged up. Biggest concern is Jeremiyah Love, who is active but wearing a brace. Then again, Drew Allar struggled against Boise (despite the margin). What is he going to do against Notre Dame?

Notre Dame had a 98 yard touchdown run against Indiana. Then they had 17 points and less than a minute of play against Georgia. These events are unlikely to occur again. Plus, there are rumors of illness in the Irish locker room and their running back may not be healthy. Add in the fact that they are small in the defensive front and Penn State should control the clock a little and I will make this my best play.

Was simply waiting for official word that Penn State star defender Abdul Carter would play -- and he will. We stay under the important number of 45 (24-21) but I'm not sure this game even gets into the 40s barring OT. Something like 20-17 maybe. It's fairly chilly here in South Florida and I don't think that hurts our chances. Should be a lot of running plays and a lot of running clock.

Duel-threat QBs tend to thrive against defenses that do not excel against the rush and the pass. Penn State’s is superb at stopping the run, which could force so-so thrower Riley Leonard to challenge an above-average pass defense more than he would prefer. The Fighting Irish were afforded two fewer days than Penn Stare for R&R and prep time. Notre Dame’s main statistical concern is a low conversion rate in the red zone, an area in which the Nittany Lions are super-strong. Notre Dame is dealing with a flu outbreak. While most of the affected players reportedly are not starters, its depth could be compromised.

Penn State will be a wake up call for Notre Dame. They have an experienced QB who will not give you a strip sack converted to a touchdown like Georgia, and their offense should take more advantage of ND's battered DLine. Notre Dame scored 9 points of true traditional offense last round. Penn State should win the turnover battle which should be just enough to squeeze out a win.

There remains the thought the Domers have caught a break schedule-wise. We recall USC and Jayden Maiava moving a bit too easily thru the air vs. Al Golden's brawling defense on November 30, and note ND was facing backup Georgia QB Gunner Stockton in the Sugar Bowl. Scoring points is how to win games and seems Penn State can negotiate that a bit easier with its collection of weapons paced by do-everything TE Tyler Warren, all operating smoothly in first-year OC Andy Kotelnicki's progressive attack. Recent work by the Riley Leonard-led Notre Dame offense is less convincing, and the Georgia game turned around on a short field following a turnover and an Irish KR TD by Jayden Harrison. Play Penn State (Orange Bowl)

Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love and the Nittany Lions Abdul Carter are apparently good to go. This is by far the biggest game of James Franklin’s coaching career, and we all know how he fares in big game situations. Both teams have great rushing attacks, but Notre Dame’s rushing defense is 53rd in success rate allowed, so you may except run first approach for the Nittany Lions. But this all comes down to the play calling of Andy Kotelnicki and if the defense take away the passing game from Riley Leonard, who hasn’t been great in the playoffs, as Notre Dame relies heavily on the run.

Penn State scored 21 or under only two times this season, to Ohio State and Illinois. They scored 31 or more points in their three postseason games, including the Big Ten championship. But that's the only way Notre Dame can win if they hold them to 21 or below with the No. 7 ranked defense allowing 295 yards per game. And their season average of points allowed is 13.6 per game which ranks second in the NCAA. Notre Dame has covered 10 games in a row but along the way eight of their last nine games opponents have stayed under 21 points. It's going on at Notre Dame and it begins with defense. Penn State under.

With both teams being eerily similar along both sides of the line of scrimmage, it makes the chess match between the two teams even more important. These teams will play a strong point of attack game and we may be looking at two touchdowns and a series of field goals.

The look-ahead line on this game had the Lions as a slight favorite, so we'll take the window of value on Penn State as an underdog. On paper this rates as a pick'em and three's no doubt the Irish have looked daunting in their first 2 CFP games. Both top-5 defensive units are essentially a push. But the Penn State offense, which features three high draft picks at QB, TE and RB, gives the Lions an edge in firepower. We're banking on that factor being the difference.

What is Penn State's best win this year? Minnesota? SMU? Boise State? The Nittany Lions took advantage of a favorable draw but I think their run ends on Thursday, especially if star defensive end Abdul Carter can't play. I’m still not buying Drew Allar and Penn State’s passing game against a good defense that can pressure the quarterback. I like the matchup for Notre Dame. I'll take the Irish to grind out a win.

Notre Dame put on a showcase performance in their win over Georgia. They will now face a Penn State team that covered their double digit spread against Boise, but gave up over 400 total yards. Expect the Irish to have success attacking the Nittany Lions defense, and make the x-factor plays to move on to the National Championship Game. Take the Irish in what will be a close battle.

Penn State played two great teams and lost to both of them, Oregon and Ohio State. Wins against SMU and Boise State were good teams from bad conferences. The best team they played and won in the Big Ten is probably Minnesota or Illinois and I see them playing three former PAC-12 teams along with two MAC teams. They’re the Kings of the mediocre. Overrated in most of those games covering six of the 12 regular season games. Notre Dame covered 12 of their 14 games and also covered the last 10 in a row. Their surprising loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2 was a driving force for the year. It kept them motivated from losing again and the plan is working. Notre Dame.

ND has been lucky to score as much as they have. Penn St. will run into an Irish D. I worry about OT but otherwise my model says under.

Unless the Fighting Irish turn the ball over deep in their own territory, I'm not sure I see the Nittany Lions sustaining more than two long drives, if that. Notre Dame has the fifth best pass defense in the country (167.4 yards per game) and should keep Drew Allar's success to a minimum. Not only do I like Marcus Freeman's team to win, I expect this one is going to be ugly. Take the under. Notre Dame 19, Penn State 14.

Both of these semifinal games should be within one score but in the Orange Bowl, I lean towards the Fighting Irish. Penn State wasn't as visually impressive in person to me in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State moved the ball plenty but kept shooting themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways (31) and should be able to keep Tyler Warren and Penn State's running backs relatively in check.

Penn State sure seems to have the advantages here in health and rest with that ND game pushed back one day due to the New Orleans issue. The Irish lost star pass-rusher Rylie Mills to injury in Round 1 and a few other guys left the Georgia quarterfinal win banged up. No. 1 running back Jeremiyah Love is clearly not 100 percent as he had only six carries against the Dawgs. As a fan, I want the Irish to win it all as I don't care for the other three schools left standing, but it simply feels like a lot of things going against them on Thursday from Miami. I'm half tempted to drive over and attend.