Expert Picks
Cleveland State has an entirely new roster this season...
FanDuel. I was hoping for +7, but I don't think we'll get there. Illinois State is one of the few Mid-Major teams with key players actually coming back for another season. Three starters return, headlined by Chase Walker (17.7 PPG) and Johnny Kinziger (11.5 PPG). Saint Mary's is starting over with a first-time head coach and a completely re-tooled roster. The Gaels do still have some talent, although with so many changes, it might take a few games for everything to come together. I expect a tight game here, so I'll back Illinois State +6.5 for a Half Unit.
The rare early-season college basketball play for me. The last two years, we've seen scores of 57-54 and 69-65 in this neutral site matchup and that's with Arizona having averaged 82.5 and 86.2 points per game. I expect my Wildcats to play at a bit slower pace early this season and be more stout defensively led by preseason All-American Mo Krivas at center. Obviously picking early season games is tricky but give me Arizona to win 74-66 in Las Vegas and this one stays under by ten points.
Ohio is a team that has lost each of their last four matchups against Sun Belt teams. They were also a team that started slow with a 1-6 record, and ended the year with four straight losses. Expect the staff and key returning players in Javan Simmons and Jackson Paveletzke to play with a chip on their shoulder in game one. They take down the Jaguars in game one.
Caesars. Half Unit for the first CBB pick of the season. Both teams have new rosters, but I like the players the Bulls added a little more. In 2026, this is obviously more of a personal projection. We won't know about 99% of these teams until we see how all the new pieces fit together. Both teams will play fast here and shoot a ton of threes. The difference is I think UB has the better guards. I make the Bulls -1, so I will back them at +3 for a half unit. The five-month grind with no sleep and two more ulcers is underway!
Not thrilled going against Thomas Casale but our model has Marshall by 10 points, while Haslem and ESPN BPI by about four points each. Is a true home game. The Herd are 27-7 at home in Coach Corny Jackson's two seasons. Preseason All-SBC First Team member Noah Otshudi is back. Buffalo, meanwhile, returns just 42 of its 2,497 points scored last season.
Columbia is a team that struggled in Ivy League play a season ago. Overall they had a record of just 5-9. Yet, they were a one loss team in their first ten games a season ago, with that one loss being against UConn. Guard Kenny Nolan did transfer to Michigan, and Ryan Soulis to Northwestern but look for the Lions to jump out to another fast start against the Phoenix. Lay the number.
The Sun Belt and MAC challenge has been one sided as the Sun Belt has not lost the event in it’s three years of existence. These matchups have been competitive and of today’s ten matchups, 9 have spreads of 3.5 points or less. Troy is a team that gained notoriety for taking USC to overtime, and beating San Diego State in non conference play a season ago. Size gave them problems as the season wore on, and that’s a strength of UMass that has size at all skill positions. Grab the points here with the Minutemen.
Charleston Southern had another off-season of a lot of turnover. They’ve brought in a lot of scorers from lower levels so let’s see if it translate as the Buccaneers have increased tempo and pace of play over the past few seasons. Charleston Southern are still tall inside but weak on the glass. South Florida should control the glass and have the more productive offensive weapons also wanting an up-tempo style and to get out in transition.
Early morning tip off before we start the work day. Last season, these were two of the slower teams in the country in terms of tempo and yes, it’s a new season and new players. But, the one thing we all know is this Merrimack defense and their zone. The Mountaineers have the size advantage and should be able to control the boards but Joe Gallo and Merrimack will make this into a slow, grind it out contest.
Welcome back college hoops! Not a huge totals guy most of the time, but I am Catholic so I had to bet this matchup on Sunday morning from Rome between Notre Dame and Villanova. It's basically the Pope Leo XIV national championship game (will he be there?) as he's from Chicago (which is Notre Dame's backyard) and graduated from Villanova. I have no idea of either team this early but with all the unusual travel, start time, surroundings, etc. You'd think shots would be clanking. The supposedly superior Wildcats only return two starters, while the Irish are almost entirely new.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.
Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.
UConn’s resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. Hurley is also 9-0 against the spread the last four years in the NCAA Tournament on a short turnaround spot (less than 48 hours to prep). The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams.
Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.