NFL Expert Picks

This is obviously the biggest game of the year for both teams, and big games are where Hollins shows up the most. Much has been made about the Patriots' easy schedule, but when they played the Buccaneers, Ravens and in the second game against the Bills, Hollins recorded his three performances with at least eight targets this year. He also had seven against a tough Browns defense. Hollins returned from the IL in the AFC Championship to catch two passes for 51 yards in a game where Drake Maye threw for just 86 yards total. Hollins has outperformed Stefon Diggs in several key games this year and could do so again here.

The Patriots have endured a monster run of defenses to get to the Super Bowl, and waiting for them is the league's No. 1 scoring defense. The last opponent to get to 300 yards against Seattle besides the Rams was the Cardinals in Week 10, and the Seahawks have allowed two total touchdowns in six games against non-Rams opponents since Week 12. Drake Maye had one game with a sub 60% completion rate heading into the playoffs and has been below that number in all three games. The Seahawks should excel against the Patriots' offensive line and continue to keep Maye uncomfortable, and Sam Darnold is playing well enough to not expect the Pats offense to get short fields. I love getting this above 20.

We know that Drake Maye is going to use his legs to try and pick up first downs when needed, but no one is really talking about the other QB in the matchup. Darnold has had 3+ rush attempts in six of his last seven games, and with the Patriots getting creative at sending pressure during the playoffs, I believe it's likely he'll be on the move a couple times in this game, and he'll certainly not hesitate to try and pick up a first down if he sees open field. We could also hit this by virtue of end-game kneeldowns if the Seahawks do what's expected and win this game. I like getting plus odds value on this prop.

I expect this to be a slow-starting game for both offenses as they feel out two elite defenses, so much so that one prop from my 60 picks article is on the first touchdown to be scored in the second quarter. In that type of environment, I don't see three TDs being scored by these teams in the first half, so I'm willing to take this total all the way down to 20.5 and get plus odds on the Under.

The Patriots aren't being given much of a chance in this game, but I see their defense as being good enough to limit Seattle's scoring and give Drake Maye a chance at the win. I expect scoring to be tough in the first half after the long lead-up to kickoff, with nerves at an all-time high in the first quarter. I believe there's only three points of difference between these teams on a neutral field, and while I wait to see the best number I can get on the Pats in the full game, I can't pass up the opportunity to grab the hook on the first-half line.

The sportsbooks have taken a ton of money on the Seahawks throughout the last two weeks, yet the line hasn't budged. Maybe they're confident in a Patriots cover at this number? Underdogs of 3.5 or more are 11-2 ATS in the Super Bowl over the last 25 years with more outright wins than losses, and the Patriots have a path to victory with how well the defense is playing plus the better quarterback and maybe better coach in the game (remember that Mike Vrabel knows the demands of a Super Bowl Sunday well while this is Mike Macdonald's first exposure to it). Feel free to try and wait for a 5 on gameday, but I'm perfectly fine with the 4.5 at -105 or better.

This doesn’t feel great as a New York Giants fan taking the Patriots to cover but here we are. Seattle is the better overall team, but Mike Vrabel has an underdog is something that can't be ignored. Vrabel won a league-high 23 games has an underdog in his time in Tennessee and 4-2 ATS as one this season. The experienced play calling by Josh McDaniels, coaching in his 10th Super Bowl may prove to be a difference maker tonight, as Vrabel won three as a player, so they know what it takes to win. Not saying the Patriots are going to win but this should be closer than expected. Also, LeBron James picked Seattle to win, so we’ll roll with the Patriots and the points.

On paper, this game seems like an under with these two defenses. But, New England has gone over the total in six of their last eight games and the Seahawks have also gone over in five of their last seven. Seattle has scored 72 points combined in both playoff games and the Patriots have averaged over 27 points on the season. Sharps are on the under, public is on the over but the big game has over gone over 45 points in four of the last six and wouldn’t be shocked if this is a tight game in the mid 20’s late in the game to push this one over with a game winning field goal.

This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Kenneth Walker against a New England front seven that has been dominant. With a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane in the fold, no one has been able to effectively run against the Patriots. I am jumping on this early as I anticipate this line moving south as we approach kickoff. I consider this New England run defense to be the very best in the league. The Patriots season long metrics don’t reflect how truly elite their run defense is.

Maye has not been his MVP self in the postseason. Conditions have been difficult but so have been the defenses he's faced and it won't get any easier vs Seattle. In 3 games, he is 43 of 77 with 6 fumbles (3 lost), 2 interceptions, and he's been sacked 15 times. Even if his shoulder is healthy, I still feel he deserves to be a solid favorite to throw an interception. The O-Line hasn't been able to protect him as well and he has faced the best pass defenses in the league. Chargers No. 1, Houston 2, Denver 4, and Seattle No. 5 as far as Defensive Passer Rating rankings in the NFL. I'm betting he will slip at least once again on Sunday.

Barner has gotten very little attention in the 2 playoff games for the Seahawks so far, catching just 3 balls for 15 yards. I believe this sets up nicely for him to come in under the radar somewhat for this game. We have to figure that JSN will be the focal point of the New England defense, limiting his output as much as possible. This could create opportunities for Barner, who caught 6 touchdown passes this season and also scored a rushing TD. With the opponent's defense dedicating its attention so heavily on Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker, I like Barner to have a successful game and find his way into the end zone.

Key to playing the game this way is waiting. Betting the dog on the ML is very common when it comes to Super Bowls. By the time we get to game day, it is likely that the ML on the favorite will be less than -200, so be patient and see if you can get a preferred price. I would not be surprised if Seattle covered the spread as well. I personally made the number 5 with 1 point included for "Home Field Advantage." The Seahawks have played here for 14-seasons, they and their fans are much more familiar with this venue. My stats crunch comes to 6.5 - but again, I will play Seattle ML as I believe, simply, they are the better team.

It's difficult to assess passing volume for the Patriots on the season as they have been involved in plenty of games where the offense hasn't been pushed. I don't think that will be the case on Sunday as we're likely looking at a neutral or negative game script for the Patriots. Josh McDaniels has had two weeks to gameplan for this one, and I think we'll see Maye get the ball out faster than normal and exploit the short area to move the chains.

This one is interesting. Henderson’s rushing prop is over/under 18.5 yards, while his receiving prop is O/U 3.5 yards. So how is the combined number 3.5 yards higher? I’m not sure how the rookie’s snap count has gone from 26 to 25 to 4 in the playoffs but here we are. I expect him to play at least 20 snaps in the Super Bowl and receive a minimum of eight touches as we saw in 16 of 20 games to date. If I’m correct on the touches, Henderson needs to average 3.5 yards per touch to hit this prop. I’ll take that chance with such a dynamic player.

I’m basing this pick on the volume uptick the veteran wide receiver has seen in the last couple games. Kupp has a 22% target share in the postseason, so let’s say Sam Darnold meets his attempts projection of 30, that’s 6-7 targets for Kupp. He already has topped this yardage line in both postseason games and has a tendency to be clutch in his career. Don’t forget his MVP performance in Super Bowl LVI. I’m not asking for the world here, just three catches for 35 yards would get it done for us. I’ll go somewhat bold and say that Kupp tops 40 yards based on the projected volume and as a security blanket for Sam Darnold.