DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.
DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
DraftKings. Rookie Chimere Dike has evolved into a reliable target for Cam Ward and the despondent Titans offense. Without Calvin Ridley, Dike has cleared this line in four of six games this season. Running 68% of his snaps out of the slot (68% of his catches, and 72% of his targets, per PFF) - he’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed the most catches to that alignment this season (8 per game) at the second highest catch rate (77%, per Fantasy Points Data). The Titans have been dialing up more screens for the dynamic receiver, with nine designed reads over the last six games, as well as a 21% first read rate.
DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.
FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has cleared this line in eight of thirteen games this season, including five of the last six games started by Jaxson Dart. With the second most catches out of the slot in the NFL, he will face the soft defense of the Commanders. Washington has allowed the fourth most receptions per game out of the slot (7.5) at the third highest catch rate (76%) and third highest target rate (35.2%).
DraftKings. Rookie safety Malachi Moore has cleared this line in four of his last six games. Now an every-down fixture in the secondary, the uptick in tackles coincides with Moore lining up more in the tackle box. Proficient against both the run and in coverage, I like the matchup here. Not only are the Jaguars a top four opponents for safety tackles (per PFF data), but the Jets should struggle to hold on the ball (even more than usual) with rookie Brady Cook making his first start under center.
FanDuel. Chase Brown had seven catches on seven targets against the Ravens two weeks ago. Granted, Joe Burrow did throw 46 passes in that game, but I do like Brown in this matchup. The Ravens defense has allowed a lot of running back receiving volume of late, and Burrow will once again be without Tee Higgins. The rest of the Bengals receivers are low volume, and Mike Gesicki has a tough matchup against Kyle Hamilton. Brown is now over this line in four of the last five with Joe Burrow and without Tee Higgins since becoming a starter last year - and 16 total catches in two of those instances against the Ravens.
FanDuel. Since Week 10 (the game after the Kyle Monangai breakout), the Bears have the third highest neutral gamescript run rate at 53% (per RotoViz). The Bears lead the NFL at 66 offensive plays per game, and the Browns have allowed their opponents 64, 64 and 75 offensive plays in Shedeur Sanders’ three starts. Given the weather and the Browns injuries on the offensive line, I love the Bears to dominate time of possession in this game. Monangai, who has out carried Swift each of the last two games, should be poised to clear this line. Even assuming a 50/50 carry split would get us home, as I have the Bears running backs conservatively projected at 29 rush attempts in total.
FanDuel. While it’s looking like Mike Evans will return, I still like Chris Godwin to reel in four catches. With Evans sliding in on the outside, opposite the struggling Emeka Egbuka, I expect Godwin to assume the majority of the snaps in the slot - and that’s where the Falcons have been burned of late. Atlanta has allowed 22 receptions out of the slot the last three weeks, coinciding with Dee Alford assuming that role in coverage (18 receptions have been in his coverage, per PFF). With Evans back in the fold, Godwin’s 4.7 average depth of target on his seven targets last week is likely to translate over. And with Cade Otton doubtful, I do like Godwin to serve as a security blanket.
DraftKings. After coming back from an injury that cost him the beginning of the season, Nakobe Dean seems to have reclaimed his role as an almost every down off ball linebacker. Dean averaged 8.5 tackles per game in this role last season, and is coming off a 12 tackle performance in which he played 94% of the defensive snaps. He’s the Eagles best run play tackler, and I expect the Chargers to go run heavy to exploit the fact that the Eagles are without Jalen Carter. Plus, the Chargers are a solid matchup, allowing the ninth most tackles per game, and specifically the third most linebacker tackles (data per PFF).
DraftKings. It’s not a line he’s hit with regularity this season (only 5/12), but the noise is loud around the Eagles about their offense. Nick Sirianni reportedly got involved this week, and I’m banking on more running plays called for Jalen Hurts. We know what we can do in the tush push and scrambling, but I believe the eagles use more RPO’s to try to get a surprisingly dormant run game going. Hurts has made a career on responding to doubts - and I think that’s what he does tonight.
FanDuel. Ladd McConkey has remained under this line in seven of 11 games in which the Chargers receiver room has been fully healthy. Running 64% of his routes out of the slot, he’ll arguably have the toughest individual matchup of Chargers pass catchers, against Cooper DeJean. The Eagles allow the eleventh lowest target rate to slot receivers, at the sixth lowest yards per reception (9.38), and second lowest yards per target (5.43). I expect the Chargers, who get Omarion Hampton back, to lean on the run against an Eagles front that’s missing Jalen Carter.
DraftKings. CJ Stroud has cleared this line in six of eight full games this season. Scrambling at a 7% rate (13th highest of 39 qualified quarterbacks), he’ll face a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 2.3 scrambles per game (7th most) and 17.8 scramble yards per game (10th most). Stroud should be able to clear this line with just two scrambles, but I have him closer to three. I’d bet this up to over 13.5 yards.
FanDuel. With Marvin Harrison Jr. ruled out, it’s time to fire up Michael Wilson overs again. Wilson accrued 25 catches on 33 targets in the two games Harrison missed, with a ridiculous 39% first read rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Against the Rams, gamescript should cooperate, and I don’t expect the Cardinals subpar rushing attack against the Rams third ranked run defense (per FTN’s DVOA metric). I have Wilson once again seeing double digit targets.
FanDuel. Going to ride the Colston Loveland train in this matchup. The Packers allow the tenth most tight-end catches per game (5.83), and should be tough to run on. Without leading receiver, Rome Odunze, I anticipate Loveland on the field for 75%+ of the pass snaps. As is, he’s cleared this line in three of the last five. Tougher matchup for the Bears receivers in this one as well.