Prop's Picks (2 Live)
FanDuel. Darnell Washington has cleared this line on four of his last six full games. Continuing to pace the Steelers tight ends in snaps and routes, Washington has developed into a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers. I expect the high powered Detroit offense to force the Steelers into a passing gamescript. And with Detroit stingy against backfield in the passing game (Lions are top five in both targets and receptions allowed to running backs), I expect Rogers to utilize his tight ends more on check downs. Plus, the Lions have been gashed the last two weeks by the position, as they’re missing both of their starting safeties. I’d bet this up to over 25.5 yards.
B365/MGM/Caesars. Coming off a big time performance against the Packers, I’m looking for Courtland Sutton to find similar success against the Jaguars. Sutton has cleared this line in 10 of his last 14 games, and Bo Nix has been peppering him with targets of late: 34 over the last four contests. The matchup is sound, as the Jaguars allow the third most receiving yards per game to outside pass catchers (122.3) at the highest target rate (46.1%; data per FantasyPoints). In an important game for playoff seeding, I expect Nix to continue to lean on his leading receiver. I’d bet this up to over 61.5 yards.
FanDuel. Adonai Mitchell has become the number one target for the depleted Jets receiving corps. With at least six targets in each game as a Jet, he’s cleared this receiving yards line in three of his last four games. Coming off a solid 58-yard showing with quarterback Brady Cook, I like Mitchell to continue to produce against the Saints. I’d bet this up to over 43.5 yards.
DraftKings. This is an interestingly low line for George Pickens, who has cleared this line in seven of the ten full games played with CeeDee Lamb this season. The Cowboys have talked about looking to get Pickens the ball, and even though they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, there could be a bump in Pickens first reads to keep him happy in hopes of resigning him this offseason. It isn’t the best matchup, but Pickens has regularly cleared this line in suboptimal spots. I’d bet this to -150.
B365 at +115. Tre’Von Moehrig has only cleared this line in six of thirteen games this season, but this should be a solid opportunity to rack up the tackles. In nine of the last ten Bucs games, an opposing box safety has cleared this line - and Moehrig spends more than 50% of his snaps around the line of scrimmage. He’s the Panthers leading tackler on pass plays, and third best against the run - so he should be involved no matter the gamescript. And I do believe this game should see a close split in time of possession, at the worst. I’d bet this up to -135.
FanDuel. Jalen Coker has come on strong for the Panthers, clearing this line in three of the last four games, including 60 and 74 yards the last two weeks. With Tet McMillan not playing at 100%, Coker has lead the Panthers in targets each of the last two weeks. Despite a lower volume passing attack typically. The Panthers should struggle to run against the Bucs rush defense with ranks 3rd in EPA per attempt (per FTN). The Bucs defense has struggled against the slot of late, and I like Coker to capitalize. I’d bet this up to 41.5 yards.
FanDuel. I’ll take a stab on Kyle Monangai again, despite him staying under his rush attempts line last week. He had cleared this line in the four games prior, and there are some positive variables working in our favor this week. Firstly, D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin injury - even with him suiting up, I’d respect Chicago to lean on Monangai a bit more. And the Bears receiving core is decimated, with both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out. Throw in some windy conditions, and I envision a run-heavy gameplan for Chicago.
B365/MGM. Deebo Samuel is under this long reception line in five of seven games he’s suited up alongside Terry McLaurin (with one over in heartbreaking overtime fashion, as I know all too well). He’ll have a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary - mainly Cooper DeJean in the slot (Deebo has a 71% slot alignment rate over the last three weeks, since Terry McLaurin’s return). I’d bet this line down to under 17.5.
DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.
DraftKings. I’m hopping back on the Darnell Washington train this week. The massive tight-end was over this line in four of five games before leaving last week’s game early with a concussion. Fully cleared and off the injury report, I like Washington today in a great matchup. The Dolphins have been a tight-end funnel all season, allowing the second most yards per game at 68.2. Washington, whose snap and route share has shot upward over the last few weeks, should capitalize against some softer coverages. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.
DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.