Prop's Picks (3 Live)
FanDuel (60+ at -118). Kyren Williams has cleared the 60-yard mark in 14/18 games. Despite the Blake Corum emergence since the Week 8 bye, Williams has maintained pace with his counterpart, at 5.1 yards per carry, and a 59% carry and rush yard share. He’ll face the Bears who rank 28th in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Chicago allowed 104 running back rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in the regular season. However, those numbers jump up to 120 yards and 5.2 YPC across seven contests when linebacker TJ Edwards (IR) doesn’t play the full game, and Tremaine Edwards does. The weather should be conducive to running, and I have Williams projected around 70 yards. I’d bet this up to over 64.5.
FanDuel. I highlighted the role reversal with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeon Henderson last week, with Stevenson usurping the rookie as the Patriots lead back, especially on passing downs. The rang true against the Chargers, with Stevenson on the field for 74% of passing snaps, notching three catches on four targets. Overall, Stevenson has now cleared this line in four of the last six games, and should be in line for target volume today. The Texans stingy defense allows the ninth highest target rate to the backfield (17%), and the fifth highest catch share (21%, per Fantasy Points). With the Texans high pressure rate, I expect Stevenson to remain the featured back on passing downs and any potential hurry up situations.
DraftKings. Jayden Higgins is under this line in 10/17 games this season, including five of the last six. While Nico Collins won’t be suiting up, I’m not buying the inflated line in a brutal matchup. Higgins catch rate on throws with 15+ air yards, on 1.2 targets per game (CJ Stroud is at 38% overall). The Patriots allow 35% completions on 15+ air yards to receivers aligned out wide (since Christian Gonzalez’ season debut) - with only 17 completions over 14 games. Xavier Hutchinson will see deep targets, as will Christian Kirk who is coming off a massive game. So despite no Collins, I’ll be fading the rookie. I’d bet this line in a dome, let alone with the snow that’s expected.
FanDuel. With George Kittle sidelined, Jake Tonges should assume the lions’ share of the work at tight-end for the 49ers. Tonges shone without the All Pro, accumulating 40+ yards in each of the last four games Tonges missed (including 58 and 60 yards in the two games started by Brock Purdy). He’ll be relied on today, as the Seahawks vulnerability in the passing game is against tight-ends. The Seahawks allowed the fifth most targets and sixth most yards to the position this season. I’d bet this line up to over 37.5 yards.
DraftKings. As with most rush attempts props, I’m looking more at the game factors than the play. I expect the banged up 49ers offense to struggle to move the ball against the Seahawks top ranked defense. This should lead to more offensive plays for the Seahawks, who will look to exploit the 49ers injured front seven. Zach Charbonnet has cleared this line in 9/16 games this season, including both matchups against the 49ers. Kenneth Walker will get his touches, but I see Charbonnet as the best bet for volume, as he dominates the short yardage touches (41 to 24 with three yards or less to go, in common games played) and the fourth quarter carries (62 to 45). I have Charbs closer to 13 attempts.
FanDuel. Khalil Shakir cleared this line in 9/16 games in the regular season, and is very clearly Josh Allen’s most trusted target in high-pressure situations. Allen, who is banged up, will likely be thrust into passing situations (Broncos run defense ranks 2nd in DVOA), and Shakir should be in position to capitalize. Running most his routes out of the slot, he’ll avoid Patrick Surtain on the outside. The Broncos allow the fifth-highest target rate to slot pass catchers (36%, per Fantasy Points). Denver allowed the third most catches to pass catchers in the slot and out wide for nine air yards or less (11.2 per game). Shakir’s aDOT is 3.6 yards, with 82% of his targets coming in at less than 10 air yards.
FanDuel. DK Metcalf returns for the Steelers after his two game suspension at the end of the regular season. He was under this line in 11/15 games this season, including nine of his last ten. Lining up outside on 81% of his snaps, he’ll have a brutal matchup against both Texans star cornerbacks, Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. Excluding Week 18, when the Texans rested their starters in the second half, Houston allowed the fewest receptions (5.9), second fewest yards (82.3 per game), third fewest yards per route run (1.71) and the lowest catch rate (54%) to outside receivers (all per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 53.5 yards.
FanDuel. I’ll start backward here - I expect the Steelers offense to struggle. The immobile Aaron Rodgers will face the tenacious Texans defensive line. DK Metcalf will go toe-to-toe with stud cornerback Derrick Stingley, and the Steelers running backs have to deal with the Texans second best run defense by DVOA, and third best pass defense against the position (per FTN). All of this to get to my point - the Texans should dominate time of possession. Woody Marks hasn’t been efficient, but he’s emerged as the guy for the Texans backfield. He’s cleared this attempts line in each of his last five full games. The Texans have the sixth highest neutral gamescript rush rate since Week 12. I have Marks closer to 18 attempts.
FanDuel. Since Rhamondre Stevenson came back from his multi-week injury, his role has flipped with rookie TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson, who is more trusted in pass protection, has emerged as the receiving back, playing in 138 pass snaps over the last five games, compared to Henderson’s 58. Stevenson has amassed at least 22 receiving yards in each game over that span. The Chargers are tough on running backs through the air, but also on the ground. I’m expecting the Patriots to rely on Drake Maye’s arm in this one, and Stevenson (17% catch share over the last five games), should carve out three catches from the hyper-efficient Maye. I’d bet this up to over 15.5 yards.
DraftKings. I’m buying low on Chargers tight-end Orande Gadsden, who cleared this line in eight of 14 games with Justin Herbert, but stumbled a bit down the stretch. Gadsden’s snap share remains strong - he was on the field for 75% of pass snaps over the last five weeks. And the matchup is sound for the rookie tight-end, as the Patriots allowed the eleventh most receiving yards to the position, despite an easy schedule. New England’s run defense should be strong with Milton Williams back in the fold, and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis will make life difficult on the perimeter. I’d bet this up to over 33.5 receiving yards.
DraftKings. Demario Douglas was under this line in 10/17 regular season games. Running 82% of his routes out of the slot, he’ll have a tough matchup against the Chargers who are a top 8 team in terms of slot receiving yards per game and slot yards per route run. Plus, the Chargers zone-heavy scheme is a knock on Douglas, who sees his target rate and yards per route run plummet against the coverage. Plus, he’s hardly on the field, having lost snaps to both Efton Chism and Kyle Williams over the last few weeks.
FanDuel. Saquon Barkley finished his regular season clearing this line in six of eight games. With standout tackle Lane Johnson expected to return for the Eagles, and a multitude of injuries to the 49ers front seven, I’m expecting a massive dose of Barkley in the Wild Card round. Across seven games against teams in the top 10 of team defense DVOA (per FTN Fantasy - Eagles rank seventh), the 49ers allowed an average of 25 running back rush attempts. I’d bet this up to 20+ totes for a partial unit.