Alvin Kamara has a tough matchup through the air on Sunday. …

Dylan Sampson has 66+ scrimmage yards each of the last two weeks. …

Omarion Hampton has cleared this line in 4/7 games this season. …

Khalil Shakir has cleared this line in three of his last four games. …

Michael Wilson is under this line in six of eight contests. …

FanDuel. Tet McMillan… get ready to learn Pat Surtain II. The sophomore receiver will likely get the shadow treatment this week from the All Pro corner. Surtain has only allowed one catch for more than 10 yards this season (22 yards), and only two catches of 24+ yards over his last 28 regular season games. McMillan only has cleared this line twice in seven games this season, both against teams who run heavy cover 3/single-high safety schemes. The Broncos (with Surtain) are more man heavy.

DraftKings. Caleb Douglas has cleared this line in three of four games. Emerging as the primary outside weapon for the young Dolphins, Douglas has a plus matchup against the Lions struggling secondary. Douglas also sees his target per route run shoot up to 0.23 against single high safety looks, which the Lions run at a top eight rate.

FanDuel. Sam LaPorta gets an A+ matchup on Sunday against the Dolphins. 64% of both of LaPorta’s targets and receiving yards come from when he’s aligned in-line, and the Dolphins are allowing the second highest target rate to that positioning. This also includes the third highest yards per game (52) and second highest yards per route run (2.35). When also factoring in LaPorta’s catches from the slot, he should be able to capitalize on the soft coverage from the Dolphins linebackers and safeties.

DraftKings. JJ McCarthy is over this line in only one of his two extended appearances for the Giants - but I like today’s opportunity. When the Giants brought him in, they curiously kept him active as the third quarterback (instead as the emergency QB), in an effort to take advantage of his running ability. With the Giants down both Tyrone Tracy and Cam Skattebo to injury, I see them putting in some designed runs for McCarthy in similar fashion to the packages ran by Jaxson Dart. The Eagles have been susceptible to the run of late, allowing at least 125 yards on the ground in each of the last three games. They’re also slightly above average allowing 7.6 yards per carry on scrambles.

DraftKings. Antonio Williams has 50+ receiving yards in 3 of the 4 full games with Jayden Daniels this season. The Commanders will be without Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks and Dynami Brown out wide, and the Rams are without both of their standout cornerbacks. I don’t have much faith in the Commabders run game, and LA is tough against the running backs and tight ends in the passing game. Look for a breakout game from the rookie.

Caesar’s. This line is just off for Amik Robertson’s tackles per my numbers. The Rams are a plus tackle spot across the board this season, allowing the eighth most. They control the clock and Matthew Stafford owns a top seven completion percentage amongst qualified starters. The latter is due to his rapport with Puka Nacua (76% completion percentage), whom Robertson should see plenty of. The Commanders corner should have tackle opportunities against Nacua and action from the running backs off-tackle. And this is the part where I mention that Robertson has cleared this line in all seven games this season - and has 6+ in six of seven.

FanDuel (1.5u). Tee Higgins has been an absolute monster for the Bengals this season, clearing this line in five of seven games. At 11.9 yards per target he leads the NFL (minimum 25 targets). He’ll face the pass-funnel Falcons defense (sans last week) who are allowing the sixth highest yards per target to receivers aligned out wide (9.1) - Higgins is out wide for 87% of his snaps. Plus, the Falcons run a single-high safety scheme 61% of the time (third highest rate) and that’s where Higgins thrives. Higgins out-produces Ja’Marr Chase by a wide margin against single high looks - 418 yards vs. 219 and 3.4 yards per route run vs. 1.83. Smash spot for Tee.

DraftKings. Mark Andrews has not recorded a catch for more than 10 yards since Week 2. He’s ceded some routes to the two rookie tight ends, and his average depth of target of 6.6 yards is a career low. Not only are the Jaguars a brutal tight end matchup, but the Ravens will be starting Joe Fagnano at quarterback. The rookie had a 5.3 aDOT last week (54th of 57 QBs this season) and his 6.0 preseason aDOT was in the 18th percentile.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Antonio Johnson is under this line in 4/6 games this season. Making his return after two weeks, I don’t love this game as a tackle spot. Johnson spends about half his snaps as a deep safety, and with the Ravens starting Joe Fagnano at quarterback, I don’t envision him seeing a ton of action on the back-end. When he’s at the line of scrimmage, he’ll face a Ravens run offense where Derrick Henry runs between the tackles 52% of the time. Johnson only averages two run tackles per game as is. And despite no injury designation, he did not get a full practice in this week, so there is no guarantee that he’s going to get his full complement of snaps.

Caesar’s. This one will be a tough bet to watch, because while Colston Loveland is under this line in six of seven games, the talented tight-end is capable of breaking a long one. However - I don’t see that happening tonight. The Seattle defense is relentless against tight ends, allowing the fewest yards per reception (7.3) and the second fewest yards per target (5.2). It’s also a brutal schematically as Loveland’s target per route run drops to 0.17 against zone this season, which the Seahawks run at the highest rate. Seattle has also only allowed three catches of 15+ air yards out of the slot or in-line this season. Loveland only has two of Caleb Williams 19 targets of 15+ air yards this season.