Prop's Picks (2 Live)
DraftKings at -107. Kenneth Walker has cleared this line in seven of eleven games since the Seahawks Week 9 bye. This, of course, is despite an almost 50/50 route share split with Zach Charbonnet. With the latter back out for the season, I expect Walker to take on a bigger role, which should include more pass plays. It’s a great matchup for him, as the Rams allowed the fifth most receiving yards to running backs in the regular season (38 yards per game), with an opposing back clearing this line in nine of their last eleven games. This includes Walker’s 64-yard and 44-yard performances (Charbonnet with six total targets and 32 yards as well). I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. Matthews Stafford is coming off consecutive 42 pass attempt performances, and I see him poised for similar volume against the Seahawks. Seattle’s run defense ranks first in DVOA (per FTN) - and it doesn’t take much as is for the Rams to go pass heavy, as they rank third in neutral gamescript pass rate (61%, per Roto Viz). And the Seahawks are not a ball-control heavy offense, allowing their opponents 62.5 offensive plays per game (12th most). I expect Sean McVay to lean on his MVP candidate quarterback in this one. I’d bet this up to over 36.5.
DraftKings. AJ Barner stayed under this line in 13 of 18 games this season. Running 82% of his routes off of the offensive line, Barner’s average depth of target is 5.3 yards, with only nine of his 63 targets traveling more than nine air yards. He did haul in a deep target against the Rams in Week 16 - his only target for more than 20 yards since Week 7. That catch was one of only four completions of 17+ yards allowed to an in-line tight end this season by Los Angeles. The Rams allowed the seventh lowest yards per reception (8.5) and eleventh lowest yards per target (6.9) to in-line pass catchers this season (per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
DraftKings. Marvin Mims’ role has ebbed and flowed throughout the season, but the speedster was instrumental for the Broncos last week, recording eight grabs for 93 yards. Today, I’m expecting Broncos head coach Sean Payton to not only look to get Mims involved, but to also get creative with his play-calling. Mims had 12 rush attempts this season, clearing this line in nine of 15 games. It’s a great matchup against the Patriots, who allowed wide receivers 8.9 yards per carry across 15 attempts in the regular season (per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this up to over 3.5 yards.
DraftKings. Rhamondre Stevenson has cleared this line in five of the last seven games, coinciding with his return from injury. The Broncos were stingy against running backs in the passing game on paper, but they also had abnormally distributed ten regular season games against teams in the bottom 11 of backfield target rates. The Patriots were 11th highest (16.5%), and that number jumps to 18.8% when the QB is pressured (all data per Fantasy Points). The Broncos own the second highest pressure rate, which should bode well for Stevenson. The Patriots running back also owns the second highest target rate amongst the primary Patriots pass catchers against man coverage, which the Broncos run at the fourth highest rate.
B365/MGM (-120). Sean Payton is no stranger to having to gameplan for back-up quarterbacks (including two Jarrett Stidham games in 2023). Denver’s running game is lackluster, and this is a brutal matchup. The Patriots allowed a league best 3.6 yards per carry in weeks that star Milton Williams played the full game. Bo Nix was had the second lowest pressure rate amongst starting quarterbacks this season - I expect the Broncos offensive line to protect Stidham. Payton’s offense is built on quick reads, and despite not having Nix, I believe the Broncos will throw their typical amount. Nix averaged 22.8 completions per game in the regular season, and I don’t believe Stidham warrants a near 20% drop off. I have him closer to 20 completions.
FanDuel (60+ at -118). Kyren Williams has cleared the 60-yard mark in 14/18 games. Despite the Blake Corum emergence since the Week 8 bye, Williams has maintained pace with his counterpart, at 5.1 yards per carry, and a 59% carry and rush yard share. He’ll face the Bears who rank 28th in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Chicago allowed 104 running back rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry in the regular season. However, those numbers jump up to 120 yards and 5.2 YPC across seven contests when linebacker TJ Edwards (IR) doesn’t play the full game, and Tremaine Edwards does. The weather should be conducive to running, and I have Williams projected around 70 yards. I’d bet this up to over 64.5.
FanDuel. I highlighted the role reversal with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeon Henderson last week, with Stevenson usurping the rookie as the Patriots lead back, especially on passing downs. The rang true against the Chargers, with Stevenson on the field for 74% of passing snaps, notching three catches on four targets. Overall, Stevenson has now cleared this line in four of the last six games, and should be in line for target volume today. The Texans stingy defense allows the ninth highest target rate to the backfield (17%), and the fifth highest catch share (21%, per Fantasy Points). With the Texans high pressure rate, I expect Stevenson to remain the featured back on passing downs and any potential hurry up situations.
DraftKings. Jayden Higgins is under this line in 10/17 games this season, including five of the last six. While Nico Collins won’t be suiting up, I’m not buying the inflated line in a brutal matchup. Higgins catch rate on throws with 15+ air yards, on 1.2 targets per game (CJ Stroud is at 38% overall). The Patriots allow 35% completions on 15+ air yards to receivers aligned out wide (since Christian Gonzalez’ season debut) - with only 17 completions over 14 games. Xavier Hutchinson will see deep targets, as will Christian Kirk who is coming off a massive game. So despite no Collins, I’ll be fading the rookie. I’d bet this line in a dome, let alone with the snow that’s expected.
FanDuel. With George Kittle sidelined, Jake Tonges should assume the lions’ share of the work at tight-end for the 49ers. Tonges shone without the All Pro, accumulating 40+ yards in each of the last four games Tonges missed (including 58 and 60 yards in the two games started by Brock Purdy). He’ll be relied on today, as the Seahawks vulnerability in the passing game is against tight-ends. The Seahawks allowed the fifth most targets and sixth most yards to the position this season. I’d bet this line up to over 37.5 yards.
DraftKings. As with most rush attempts props, I’m looking more at the game factors than the play. I expect the banged up 49ers offense to struggle to move the ball against the Seahawks top ranked defense. This should lead to more offensive plays for the Seahawks, who will look to exploit the 49ers injured front seven. Zach Charbonnet has cleared this line in 9/16 games this season, including both matchups against the 49ers. Kenneth Walker will get his touches, but I see Charbonnet as the best bet for volume, as he dominates the short yardage touches (41 to 24 with three yards or less to go, in common games played) and the fourth quarter carries (62 to 45). I have Charbs closer to 13 attempts.
FanDuel. Khalil Shakir cleared this line in 9/16 games in the regular season, and is very clearly Josh Allen’s most trusted target in high-pressure situations. Allen, who is banged up, will likely be thrust into passing situations (Broncos run defense ranks 2nd in DVOA), and Shakir should be in position to capitalize. Running most his routes out of the slot, he’ll avoid Patrick Surtain on the outside. The Broncos allow the fifth-highest target rate to slot pass catchers (36%, per Fantasy Points). Denver allowed the third most catches to pass catchers in the slot and out wide for nine air yards or less (11.2 per game). Shakir’s aDOT is 3.6 yards, with 82% of his targets coming in at less than 10 air yards.
FanDuel. DK Metcalf returns for the Steelers after his two game suspension at the end of the regular season. He was under this line in 11/15 games this season, including nine of his last ten. Lining up outside on 81% of his snaps, he’ll have a brutal matchup against both Texans star cornerbacks, Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. Excluding Week 18, when the Texans rested their starters in the second half, Houston allowed the fewest receptions (5.9), second fewest yards (82.3 per game), third fewest yards per route run (1.71) and the lowest catch rate (54%) to outside receivers (all per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 53.5 yards.