Prop's Picks (7 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
B365 at +105. Despite it not working out on Thanksgiving, I’m once again fading a linebacker on his tackles prop against the Cowboys. Alex Anzalone is under this line in ten of 12 games this season. Jack Campbell has been the more efficient tackler for the Lions both against the run (6.1 tackles per game compared to Anzalone’s 3.6). And the Lions running man coverage at the league’s highest rate should translate to more targets for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, versus Jake Ferguson and the running backs - the latter group more likely to be in Anzalone’s tackle radius. I’d bet this to -145.
FanDuel. Good on Amon-Ra St. Brown for giving it a go tonight, but this is now too low of a line for Jameson Williams. The speedster is over this line in five of his last seven games. Without tight-end Sam LaPorta over the last three games, Williams has seen his average depth of target lessen, as the Lions look for different ways to get him involved. Even if St. Brown is a full go, the Lions game planned this week for Williams to be their top pass catcher, and I’d expect some designed plays to get him the ball in space. Plus, in what should be a shootout, I like the matchup against the Cowboys secondary.
DraftKings. Jake Ferguson is under this line in 7/12 games this season, including 5/8 when both Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens are active. In those games with both receivers, Ferguson’s average depth of target is a paltry 4.9 yards - 76% of his targets in those contests were 10 air yards or shorter. The Lions run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Ferguson sees his target rate and yards per route run drop against man (while Pickens and Lamb both crush man coverage from a volume and efficiency standpoint). I’m ok with this line down to under 15.5 yards.
FanDuel. Theo Johnson has only cleared 4+ catches in three of 12 games, but in six of those misses, he had three grabs. But this is a plus spot against the Patriots defense that allows the sixth most targets per game (8.42) and the fifth most catches (6.33) to the position. And the Pats run the eighth most man coverage - Johnson has the most receptions against man in Jaxson Dart’s starts. Gamescript should run negative for the Giants in the second half, and the jury is out on whether Dart will be running at his normal rate after his concussion issues. Johnson should see at least six targets, by my projections, making this a nice spot at plus or short odds.
FanDuel. While the rush attempts line for TreVeyon Henderson admittedly opened way too high this week at 15.5, the movement all the way down to 13.5 reads as an overreaction. Henderson has cleared this line in four straight games, which included an 18-6 carry split with Rhamandre Stevenson who returned last week (to a 6 attempt, 5 rushing yard performance). Even if Henderson cedes a bit more, this is too good of a spot not to back the rookie. The Giants are 32nd in both DVOA and EPA per attempt against the run. It’s a matchup the Patriots are sure to look to exploit, especially as 7-7.5 point favorites. I have Henderson projected at 15 rush attempts, so I’ll gladly buy the dip here.
FanDuel. This is a short line for Courtland Sutton, who is averaging 59 receiving yards per game, having cleared this line in seven of eleven contests. Yes, a lot of targets are going Troy Franklin’s way, but I don’t see Sutton needing a ton on Sunday for us to win on this line. The Commanders have been torched by receivers out wide, allowing the third highest yards per target (10) and the fourth highest yards per route run (2.33, per FantasyPoints Data). Without JK Dobbins, the Broncos run game hasn’t quite come together, and this reads as a get right spot for Bo Nix and the passing game, coming out of the bye. I’d bet this to over 52.5.
B365 at -115. You could probably make the case for a few Commanders’ under on their long reception prop, but I’m going with Deebo Samuel. The receiver is only under in four of ten games this season, but three of four when he plays alongside Terry McLaurin, who is active. With McLaurin on the field, Deebo has been relegated to the slot for 75% of his snaps, where his already tiny average depth of target (5.2 yards overall) shrinks to 3.8 yards (per PFF). He should struggle to separate today against the Broncos - Denver runs the third most man, per Fantasy Points Data. Deebo’s separation score and win rate against man coverage rate is in the bottom third of the league’s qualified wide receivers.
B365. Dawson Knox will once again fill in as the primary tight end for the Bills with Dalton Kincaid sidelined. He’s cleared this line in two of three games since Kincaid went down, and this is a perfect opportunity to back the tight end in a matchup against the Steelers, who allow the sixth most receptions to tight ends.