It looks like Geno Smith will return to the Raiders lineup on Sunday. At one point this season we would have considered that big news...but not now. Nothing seems to be helping the Silver & Black, whose losing streak has reached eight with several abysmal performances from the offense, which has been shut out twice by identical 31-0 scores (by Chiefs & Eagles). Trading away top WR Jakobi Myers to the Jags at midseason was reportedly against Pete Carroll's wishes and if true another indicator of the dysfunction of the front office. As for the Texans, they couldn't be at a more opposite end of the spectrum, with six straight wins as they continue to bear down on Jacksonville in the AFC South. Play Texans

Sean Payton lets nothing slip thru the cracks, noting this week that the Jags' cornerbacks create extra problems because of their "ball skills." Payton went on to clarify, noting that "their cornerbacks can catch the ball, which a lot of corners in this league don't do very well. It creates more risk to throw their way." Though a basic observation, it was put succinctly, and Payton's ability to do just that is one reason the Broncos have won 11 straight. Payton also took time to note the Jags "are doing a lot of things really well," especially Trevor Lawrence, off of his 5 TDP last week, though he'll have perhaps his toughest test of the season vs. Denver's voracious pass rush. Play Broncos

JJ McCarthy's return has sparked the Vikings offense, scoring 65 points across the past two weeks with McCarthy back and taking snaps. Minnesota got involved in a lively game last week vs. the Cowboys and this would be no surprise again as the G-Men post some of the worst defensive numbers in the league on the side of the G-men, McCarthy should have another chance to shine. As for New York,, no reason not to wing it as interim HC Mike Kakfa has taken whatever leash there ever was off of rookie QB Jaxson Dart. The Giants haven't been winning but they have been going over consistently (four straight and 8-1 the last nine). Play Vikings-Giants Over

The marketplace still seems to be overvaluing the Cowboys, whose playoff hopes could be completely extinguished by the time this one kicks off in Arlington. Dallas should have had more left in the tank for last Sunday 34-26 loss to the Vikings, and the defense starting to resemble its poor form from the first half of the season while allowing 39 ppg in consecutive losses to the Lions and Vikes. As for the Bolts, they're still playing inspired defense while continuing to chase Denver in the AFC West, and Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal and get him closer to 100%. This is arguably a tougher test for Dallas than others they didn't pass the past two weeks. Play Chargers.

It didn't seem like we had much of a race in the NFC South...but now, we do! Though we continued to think the Bucs were the team to beat in the division, we're not so sure now after watching Tampa Bay drop five of its last six. injuries along the OL have scaled back the ground game that was more effective earlier this season and a season ago. Without a reliable infantry diversion, Baker Mayfield has been less effective. Meanwhile, the Panthers are kicking themselves for losing twice to the Saints, but they also beat the Rams at home and have pulled out their last six wins in one-score game, as Bryce Young & Co have fared well in close decisions. Play Panthers

Considering Matt LaFleur has only lost once to the Bears in seven seasons, getting any points with the Pack on Saturday night at Soldier Field looks too good to bypass. Though there are injury concerns, with Micah Parsons now out, while Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson are both likely gametime decisions, series history is rather one-sided here, and Green Bay did take out the Bears two weeks ago at Lambeau Field, 28-21, when Jordan Love (3 TD passes) outplayed Caleb Williams. Though Chicago does own a win at Philly, the schedule has been mostly favorable, and within the NFC North, the Bears are only 1-3. Play Packers

Short price, to be sure, but should the Rams really be getting points anywhere these days? That might hold especially true in Seattle, where Sean McVay has enjoyed great success across the years, especially vs. the spread, where the Rams have covered five straight. They'll almost have to win tonight for the points to work, but they've done that the past two seasons at Lumen Field, too. The Seahawks almost let one slip away last week vs. Philip Rivers and the Colts, as the offense repeatedly stalled in the red zone. We are yet to be convinced that Sam Darnold can outgun Matthew Stafford, though he did come close last month at SoFi in a 21-19 LA win. Play Rams

Not exactly Dolphins weather tonight in Pittsburgh, but Miami does have four wins on the spin as Mike McDaniel has found something that works the past month. All a bit unlikely following GM Chris Grier's midseason dismissal and McDaniel apparently just missing a similar fate. While not posting spectacular numbers, Tua Tagovailoa has at least stabilized at QB, running a low-risk offense leaning on the run, and the defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in each of the five wins in the current six-game span. Meanwhile, the Steelers are off of their win at Baltimore, but still fail to convince, as the defense has often leaked (and no TJ Watt tonight) and Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent at best at QB. Play Dolphins

Is the marketplace overthinking too much for this clash? The Broncos should not be underdogs at home against anybody, not with a ten-game SU win streak. The fact Denver is winning these games close shouldn't be held against Sean Payton's crew; their style of game simply is methodical, with few big plays these days on offense and the defense good enough to win most games. Margins can start to expand for Denver when the stop unit begins to convert pick-sixes and scoop-and-scores like a year ago. That hasn't happened as much this season, but the Broncos keep winning as Bo Nix and the offense do just enough each week. Note the Pack has covered just 3 of its last 12 away. Play Broncos.

Is it surprising the Bolts are getting this sort of price? Or more surprising the Chiefs are laying so many points? Not since October has KC won a game by more than three points, in fact it's been downright awful in one-score games this season, only 1-6, and playoff hopes hanging by a thread (one more loss effectively eliminates KC for the first time since 2014). Things aren't quite right, from Travis Kelce dropping passes he normally doesn't, to Patrick Mahomes lacking the old late-game magic. Meanwhile, the Chargers won 27-21 over the Chiefs on opening Friday in Brazil, Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal, and the Bolts are 4-1 vs, the line their last five at Arrowhead. Play Chargers

Sometimes we get a bit gun-shy when all of the trends seem to point in one direction. On the other hand, the eye test is always best. So maybe we shouldn't be afraid to buck the Cards, who are 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. the line) since the move to Jacoby Brissett at QB became official after the Nov. 3 win over Dallas. Arizona has also allowed 40+ points three times in the last five. For the Texans, they haven't lost since the same weekend Arizona last won (Nov. 2-3), and the five-game win streak has seen CJ Stroud return to active duty and the defense continue to excel. Allowing only 16 ppg, Houston looks like a blockade in front of the Big Red. Play Texans

Joe Burrow's cryptic midweek comments aside, we're still quite excited to ride the Bengals this week. Though chances to win the AFC North are remote, the Burrow-led Cincy is capable of winning out and forcing the Steelers and Ravens to show a bit more before they can get across the line. Two weeks ago on Thanksgiving night, Burrow returned to active duty and passed for 290 yards in a 32-14 win at Baltimore, which has been riding on fumes lately. If that much; the Ravens have dropped four straight vs. the number as it is apparent that Lamar Jackson is nowhere near 100%, his hamstring and other ailments preventing his normal electric bolts from the pocket. Play Bengals

The Bears would seem to constitute a step up from recent Browns foes such as the Raiders and Titans, and note how Cleveland fell well short in recent games vs. the likes of the 49ers and Patriots. Worth noting that the Browns lost at home last week to lowly Tennessee and not long ago were victimized by the-then 1-win (now 3-win) Jets at Met Life. Chicago is in a precarious spot in the NFC North, now a half-game back of the Pack in the division but also one loss from potentially dropping out of the NFC wild card field. The Bears had won five straight before the narrow miss at Lambeau, and the Caleb Williams-led offense has enough spark to extend this margin. Play Bears

Bolts news first, as word from Chargers camp is that QB Justin Herbert is a go tonight despite the cast on his left wrist from last week. Practically speaking, this means that Herbert is likely to be taking snaps out of the shotgun, and not behind center. Herbert has played with this sort of limitation before and not been negatively impacted. The bigger question is the Eagles, who have hardly looked their Super Bowl form of last season, with OL issues limiting the damage caused by Saquon Barkley, and the defense in some level of distress after allowing the Bears to pound for 281 YR when winning on Thanksgiving Friday at the Linc. Play Chargers.

Jumping right to it, the main issue tonight at Inglewood is Justin Herbert, as the Bolts' QB has a cast on his left wrist. Word is he'll be in the lineup, but likely only able to take snaps out of the shotgun. Herbert, however, has dealt with this type of situation before. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense was strafed by the Bears' running game to the tune of 281 YR on Thanksgiving Friday, and Philly has been giving indicators this is more a 2023 redux than 2022 or 2024. Still, note that Saquon Barkley and the offense had big nights the last time they played at So Fi (vs the Rams) last season, and this 41.5 total hardly looks prohibitive. Play Eagles-Chargers Over