Bruce's Picks (1 Live)
Not exactly Dolphins weather tonight in Pittsburgh, but Miami does have four wins on the spin as Mike McDaniel has found something that works the past month. All a bit unlikely following GM Chris Grier's midseason dismissal and McDaniel apparently just missing a similar fate. While not posting spectacular numbers, Tua Tagovailoa has at least stabilized at QB, running a low-risk offense leaning on the run, and the defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in each of the five wins in the current six-game span. Meanwhile, the Steelers are off of their win at Baltimore, but still fail to convince, as the defense has often leaked (and no TJ Watt tonight) and Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent at best at QB. Play Dolphins
Is the marketplace overthinking too much for this clash? The Broncos should not be underdogs at home against anybody, not with a ten-game SU win streak. The fact Denver is winning these games close shouldn't be held against Sean Payton's crew; their style of game simply is methodical, with few big plays these days on offense and the defense good enough to win most games. Margins can start to expand for Denver when the stop unit begins to convert pick-sixes and scoop-and-scores like a year ago. That hasn't happened as much this season, but the Broncos keep winning as Bo Nix and the offense do just enough each week. Note the Pack has covered just 3 of its last 12 away. Play Broncos.
Is it surprising the Bolts are getting this sort of price? Or more surprising the Chiefs are laying so many points? Not since October has KC won a game by more than three points, in fact it's been downright awful in one-score games this season, only 1-6, and playoff hopes hanging by a thread (one more loss effectively eliminates KC for the first time since 2014). Things aren't quite right, from Travis Kelce dropping passes he normally doesn't, to Patrick Mahomes lacking the old late-game magic. Meanwhile, the Chargers won 27-21 over the Chiefs on opening Friday in Brazil, Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal, and the Bolts are 4-1 vs, the line their last five at Arrowhead. Play Chargers
Sometimes we get a bit gun-shy when all of the trends seem to point in one direction. On the other hand, the eye test is always best. So maybe we shouldn't be afraid to buck the Cards, who are 0-5 SU (1-4 vs. the line) since the move to Jacoby Brissett at QB became official after the Nov. 3 win over Dallas. Arizona has also allowed 40+ points three times in the last five. For the Texans, they haven't lost since the same weekend Arizona last won (Nov. 2-3), and the five-game win streak has seen CJ Stroud return to active duty and the defense continue to excel. Allowing only 16 ppg, Houston looks like a blockade in front of the Big Red. Play Texans
Joe Burrow's cryptic midweek comments aside, we're still quite excited to ride the Bengals this week. Though chances to win the AFC North are remote, the Burrow-led Cincy is capable of winning out and forcing the Steelers and Ravens to show a bit more before they can get across the line. Two weeks ago on Thanksgiving night, Burrow returned to active duty and passed for 290 yards in a 32-14 win at Baltimore, which has been riding on fumes lately. If that much; the Ravens have dropped four straight vs. the number as it is apparent that Lamar Jackson is nowhere near 100%, his hamstring and other ailments preventing his normal electric bolts from the pocket. Play Bengals
The Bears would seem to constitute a step up from recent Browns foes such as the Raiders and Titans, and note how Cleveland fell well short in recent games vs. the likes of the 49ers and Patriots. Worth noting that the Browns lost at home last week to lowly Tennessee and not long ago were victimized by the-then 1-win (now 3-win) Jets at Met Life. Chicago is in a precarious spot in the NFC North, now a half-game back of the Pack in the division but also one loss from potentially dropping out of the NFC wild card field. The Bears had won five straight before the narrow miss at Lambeau, and the Caleb Williams-led offense has enough spark to extend this margin. Play Bears
Bolts news first, as word from Chargers camp is that QB Justin Herbert is a go tonight despite the cast on his left wrist from last week. Practically speaking, this means that Herbert is likely to be taking snaps out of the shotgun, and not behind center. Herbert has played with this sort of limitation before and not been negatively impacted. The bigger question is the Eagles, who have hardly looked their Super Bowl form of last season, with OL issues limiting the damage caused by Saquon Barkley, and the defense in some level of distress after allowing the Bears to pound for 281 YR when winning on Thanksgiving Friday at the Linc. Play Chargers.
Jumping right to it, the main issue tonight at Inglewood is Justin Herbert, as the Bolts' QB has a cast on his left wrist. Word is he'll be in the lineup, but likely only able to take snaps out of the shotgun. Herbert, however, has dealt with this type of situation before. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense was strafed by the Bears' running game to the tune of 281 YR on Thanksgiving Friday, and Philly has been giving indicators this is more a 2023 redux than 2022 or 2024. Still, note that Saquon Barkley and the offense had big nights the last time they played at So Fi (vs the Rams) last season, and this 41.5 total hardly looks prohibitive. Play Eagles-Chargers Over
The buy signal flashes for the Texans, now with CJ Stroud back at QB and looking quite menacing as they bring a four-game win streak into Arrowhead. The DeMeco Ryans defense has been ornery all season and has dealt with Patrick Mahomes before, and has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of the last six games. But it's the upside of the offense that intrigues with Stroud back in the lineup last week for the first time since getting KO'd vs. the Broncos on November 1. For the Chiefs, it's been one close game after another this season, with KC mostly losing in those games (1-6 in one-score games), and now leaving itself no room for error to qualify for the playoffs. Play Texans
How about 3-0 with...and 1-8 without. No, we're not talking about cheese steaks (at least for the moment), but that's the Bengals' record in games with Joe Burrow starting at QB, and games without Burrow starting at QB. Burrow is back and starting at QB again on Sunday at buffalo. There's more, but the Cincy argument always circles back to Burrow, especially in December, when the Bengals rallied min 2021, 2022, and 2024, all with Burrow at the helm (he missed December 2023 with injury). Not sure dominating a fading Pittsburgh last week and running roughshod over an tired Steelers defense was really a buy signal on the Bills, who have had their problems vs. Cincy in recent years. Play Bengals
For the Commanders we think the return of Jayden Daniels is a plus; for the Vikes, the return of JJ McCarthy,...we're not so sure. Te Commanders' seven-game losing streak has lasted long enough, especially as the team hasn't looked so bad behind Marcus Mariota in recent weeks. While the playoffs seem a lost cause, Dan Quinn's squad might have found something in last week's gallant OT loss to Denver, utilizing more quick-hitters on offense and improved schemes on defense. Nothing this season has suggested that the return of JJ McCarthy to the Vikings' lineup is going to be a plus save for the fact he'll likely be an improvement upon last week's rookie starter, Max Brosmer. Play Commanders
The Colts look to be leaking oil, dropping three of their last four and in the process the lead in the AFC South, the offense suddenly looking less potent as QB Daniel Jones has been starting to resemble his old Giants form. Jones wasn't all that bad last week vs. Houston but unlike the first half of the season when making all of the big plays, Jones and the rest of the offense have bene unable to consistently generate winning plays the past month as the downturn has endured. Meanwhile, the Jags are stirring, with wins in three straight, and a defense full of ballhawks ready to pounce on the next Jones mistake. The last three wins have been by a combined 87-33. Play Jaguars
Either something is wrong with the Ravens, or they're not that good. For several weeks, despite a recent 5-game win streak, we have suspected the same, much of it to do with QB Lamar Jackson and his return from a hamstring injury that kept him out of action for a month. Jackson has lacked the same electric burst from the pocket that he made famous in recent years. Baltimore still has Derrick Henry, however, and that might be enough to push past the Steelers, who have looked miserable in recent weeks. The old Steel Curtain defense is also showing real signs of wear and tear, such as allowing 249 rush yards last week to the Bills in the latest loss. Play Ravens
These two are playing so much on Thursdays that they might as well join the MAC! In the meantime, plenty of buzz about the recent form of the Cowboys, who have won three on the spin since getting humbled by the Cards on a Monday night, and while beating the Eagles and Chiefs in succession impresses, both of those wins came at home. We can't seem to get out of our mind how the Lions throttled Dallas 47-9 last season, and now some urgency on Detroit's side after recent losses has it outside the NFC playoff field. Dan Campbell's play-calling and gung-ho decision-making (especially 4th downs!) can rankle, but the Lions are equipped to outscore the Cowboys, no matter Dak Prescott's recent exploits. Play Lions