Is Dan Campbell simply playing it too risky with his gung-ho 4th-down strategy?...

Though Jameis Winston gave the G-Men a fighting chance at QB the past two weeks, tonight's return of Jaxson Dart to the lineup should be a plus for New York, which if nothing else has shown a fighting spirit and sense of swashbuckling in two games under interim HC Mike Kafka (who also just dismissed DC Shane Bowen) . Dart was good enough to beat the Chargers and Eagles earlier and come within a whisker of beating the Broncos in Denver. Three straight spread covers for the Giants suggests this price should intrigue, especially as Mike Vrabel's high-flying Patriots have cut it close a few times in recent weeks even as they haven't lost a game outright since September 21 vs. the Steelers. Play Giants

There is possible foul weather tonight in Landover but we hardly see where that helps the host Commanders. Washington has been in an extended slump, tis last win on October 5 in Inglewood vs. the Chargers, with six losses on the spin since. Terry McLaurin is apparently back to active duty tonight, but still no Jayden Daniels, as Marcus Mariota gets another start at QB after being at hem for the last four consecutive Washington defeats. Though not always scoring style points, Denver keeps winning (eight straight), gets back star CB Patrick Surtain tonight, and has beaten NFC teams seven straight times since last season (6-1 vs. line in those games). Play Broncos

They're a mess! The dismissal of OC Chip Kelly this week is hardly going to solve personnel shortcomings that have hindered the Raiders all season. Geno Smith doesn't have time to throw as his wideouts never seem to get open; forced to make plays on the move, Geno gets out of his comfort zone quickly. We expect new/old OC Rich Olson (now in his third Raiders OC stint) to make better use of Ashton Jeanty...but the Chargers might figure the same. After a bye week to stew following a listless 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, expect a much sharper effort from Justin Herbert and the Bolts offense. The Chargers' 20-9 win at Allegiant Stadium September 15 was easier than the score suggests. Play Chargers

The Vikings don't have a QB, unless considering Minnesota Gophers rookie Max Brosmer the answer. It looks like JJ McCarthy (concussion) might miss this game, but Minnesota was already in a pickle at QB this season because of McCarthy's injuries and slow progress, plus season-ending shoulder surgery for Carson Wentz. Even at full strength, the Vikes would be in trouble vs. the raucous Seahawks defense that ranks fifth in the league and held hot Rams QB Matthew Stafford to his lowest production of the season (just 130 YP) two weeks ago at SoFi Stadium. With scoring avenues limited, no surprise if Minnesota loses contact as it did last Sunday at Green Bay. Play Seahawks

Maybe the Falcons aren't out of the NFC South race just yet. Still two games to make up in the standings, but with South leaders Tampa Bay and second-place Carolina unconvincing lately, it's hardly impossible. After some bitter defeats, the Falcons got well against the Saints last week, and many NFC insiders suggest that ATL might be better off with vet Kirk Cousins at QB in place of the skittish Michael Penix, who is down for the count (knee). The Jets might have a sharper edge with Tyrod Taylor at QB, and they've been close many times this season, but NY is still 2-9. Even if Taylor is preferable to Justin Fields, hard to trust the J-Men to score the winning points. Play Falcons

Don't look now, but the Dolphins aren't out of the AFC playoff race quite yet. Wins in three of four have revived hopes for Miami, which still has ground to make up but does have a favorable slate upcoming (Saints here, next two vs. the Jets and fading Steelers) that could get them to 7-7 by mid-December...and very much in the chase. The defense has excelled in recent weeks and we have seen some good efforts in the past month for Tua Tagovailoa. As for the Saints, the defense is stout but the offense is tied with the Raiders for fewest ppg in the league. Play Dolphins

The Texans seem to be getting a lot of attention this week and for good reason. The raucous Houston defense just got finished battering Josh Allen and the Bills last Thursday night; moreover, QB CJ Stroud returns to active duty for the first time since getting KO'd by a concussion vs. the Broncos on November 1. The Texans still have two games to make up on Indy in the division (and one game on the Jags) but still get the Colts twice, including here. As for Indy, concerns about QB Daniel Jones making more mistakes in recent weeks and starting to resemble his Giants form. Play Texans

The weather could be dicey on Sunday in Cleveland and that might work to the Browns' advantage. Especially as that wasn't a smooth performance by Brock Purdy for Kyle Shanahan's offense on Monday night vs. the Panthers, tossing three picks in just his second game back to active duty. The prospect of Myles Garrett bearing down on Purdy him from the edge could further disrupt the Niners attack. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders seemed to pump more life into the Browns offense last week in Las Vegas than Dillon Gabriel had the previous month, and Cleveland's home form hasn't been too bad, beating the Packers and routing the Dolphins, and narrowly losing to the Bengals and Ravens. Play Browns

Joe Burrow is back and it might not be too late for the Bengals to make a late-season run in the AFC North after they have done the same a few times in recent years. At 3-8, Cincy's playoff hopes seem remote, but no team is convincing in the North, certainly not the Steelers, nor even the Ravens, who have taken advantage of the schedule to win five straight. Lamar Jackson looks to be playing at about 60%, his hamstring preventing the electric bolts from the pocket we've been used to seeing in recent years. Even Derrick Henry is having a harder time finding room to run. The Bengals have usually been close in their losses, and Burrow's return could provide a spark. Play Bengals

A recent phenomenon in the NFL is reduced snap counts, often most pronounced in KC games; one example was the Raiders managing only 29 (29!) offensive plays in last month's loss at Arrowhead. That 31-0 Chiefs win is also the start of a five-game stretch where KC scorelines haven't exceeded 49. Indeed, totals in Chiefs games are averaging a tick under 40 points across those five. Snap counts in general are reduced...in that case, so can be scoring. When the Chiefs offense is working, it chips its way down the field, not working in big chunks, serving to run the clock. Recent improvements in the Dallas defense suggest we're not in for a fireworks show on Thanksgiving. Play Chiefs-Cowboys Under

With Tampa Bay off of another loss on Sunday and Baker Mayfield's status now in question, the door is open for the Panthers to move into first in the NFC South with a win tonight. Yet, is Carolina up to it? Before last week's rally in Atlanta, the Panthers offense had generated 45 points total in the preceding four games. Now Carolina faces a revived 49ers team that welcomed Brock Purdy back to the lineup with great results last week at Arizona, and with George Kittle having previously returned to active duty, SF is getting healthy at the same time the schedule is offering them a way forward to stay very relevant in the NFC wild card hunt. Play 49ers.

Tampa Bay's big game credentials need no amplification, the Bucs have played lots of big boys the past two seasons and beaten some along the way. Though falling short at Buffalo last week, Baker Mayfield and the offense still piled up 32 points, and the previous loss to the high-flying Patriots was only 28-23. Note the big effort put in by RB Sean Tucker (106 YR, plus a 28-yard TD reception) in place of Bucky Irving last week in Buffalo. Given all of the turnovers generated last week, the Rams probably should have been ahead more comfortably vs. the Seahawks instead of the 21-19 final margin, that the Seahawks almost flipped with a last-second field goal. A Rams runaway seems unlikely on Sunday. Play Bucs

We know that Michael Penix is now out for the Falcons, and top wideout Drake London is sidelined. No matter…should the 2-win Saints really be favored? We can take our chances with the Falcons, who in truth might lose little with Kirk Cousins in at QB for the erratic Penix. The offense revolves around Bijan Robinson anyway and he is good to go for this afternoon. The Saints are off of a win at Carolina and a bye week, and Tyler Shough might be a slight upgrade at QB from Spencer Rattler, but this offense has real limitations, and it's about time for the Falcons (who have played in bad luck) to end their numbing six-game skid. Play Falcons

Last week's results are prompting us to take a second look at the Jags after the 35-6 romp past the unsuspecting Chargers. Trevor Lawrence seemed back in control of the offense as J'ville has now scored at a 31 ppg clip across its past three games. We wonder about the Cards going to Jacoby Brissett, a career backup, as the starter at QB (Kyler Murray conveniently onto the IR afterward), and note that as soon as Jonathan Gannon made the announcement, the Big Red have been bounced in back-to-back games, now losing seven of eight overall. We're tempted to trust the Jags here, but as Arizona games are turning sloppy, and suspect this one is more likely to clear 46 in Glendale. Play Jags-Cards Over