As regular-season meetings had a combined score of Rams 58 - Seahawks 57, both games decided on the final play, it's worth noting of the 127 or so minutes (including OT) these teams played this season, Seattle led for only about 23 of those...the Rams mostly went wire-to-wire in both meetings. Matthew Stafford won't be surprised by anything Seattle does after passed for 457 yards on December 18 at Seattle, when Rams special teams blunders proved costly (as in other defeats this season). If LA has remedied those, Stafford can outpitch Sam Darnold, who tossed 6 picks across the pair of reg-season meetings, and didn't need to do much last week vs. the Niners when staked to an early 17-0 lead. Play Rams on ML

This number has dropped throughout the course of the week, and for good reason...it was too high, artificially so. We suspect the earlier spread was an overreaction to the Nix absence...at least if Stidham is as competent as Payton believes. Denver’s defense needs to play better than it did vs. the Bills, but one, or preferably two, big-play takeaways would give the Broncos a real chance If Vance Joseph’s platoon succeeds, Stidham will mostly be tasked with playing as error-free as possible. If he can do as much, the Broncos have a puncher’s chance, and might not need any help from the oddsmakers in the process. Not sure how the expected frigid weather impacts proceedings, but such conditions often help an underdog. Play Broncos

Much being made of the expected chill at Soldier Field, similar conditions which confronted the Rams at Philadelphia last January. Still, what we more expect as a factor is the recent LA results on the road, which beginning November 30 at Carolina have featured four harrowing games, three of those losses to the Panthers, Seahawks, and Falcons. Uncharacteristic, perhaps, but Matthew Stafford did make mistakes in the losses that proved costly. The Bears present a compelling underdog case because of their never-say-die mantra exemplified by 2nd-year QB Caleb Williams, author of several comebacks this season including last week from 18 down to corral the Packers. There's also room in this number for the Rams to win but not cover. Play Bears

A lot being made of the expected chill likely to dip into the single digits Sunday at Solider Field. Yet the last time the Rams played in somewhat-similar arctic conditions last January at Philadelphia, the scoreline hit 50 points. Matthew Stafford, in particular, hasn't seemed overly bothered by the Rams' infrequent cold-weather games, and LA scorelines in succession since November 30 are 59 (vs. Carolina), 62 (vs. Arizona), 75 (vs. Detroit), 75 again (vs. Seattle in OT), 51 (vs. Atlanta), 57 (vs. Arizona), and 65 in the Wild Card round (vs. Carolina again). The Bears can reciprocate, as Caleb Williams has been able to rally Chicago since Halloween, most recently last week's fightback vs. Green Bay (31-27) that reached 58 total points. Play Rams-Bears Over

No one doubts the Texans having enough defense to advance. Yet do they have enough offense? Open to debate even after the Wild Card win over the Steelers, a 7-6 game into the 4th Q before two Houston defensive TDs broke open the game. The offense bordered on disaster much of the night, especially QB CJ Stroud, who fumbled the ball five (five!) times and was fortunate to lose only two. Mike Vrabel's Patriots completely bottled the Chargers and Justin Herbert last Sunday, limiting the Bolts to 207 total yards. MVP candidate Drake Maye didn't have a big night, but did author a decisive 4th quarter TD drive. Wins in 14 of 15, regardless the opposition, presents a compelling New England case. Play Patriots

Though the Seahawks won this matchup two weeks ago, Kyle Shanahan did win at Seattle in opening week, and the 49er resilience was never more evident than last week at Philadelphia when Shanahan and Brock Purdy brilliantly improvised an upset of the Eagles. SF has played thru injuries all season and surged down the stretch once Purdy returned to active duty. Though the Seahawks have the top NFC seed, Sam Darnold still committed more giveaways (20) than any NFL QB, and only a couple of fortunate bounces prevented Darnold from authoring some huge mistakes two weeks ago in Santa Clara. Let us also remember than Shanahan has never lost a wild card or division round game (7-0!) as 49ers coach! Play 49ers

Josh Allen's magic can mesmerize, though he might have to reach deep into his bag of tricks to foil the Broncos on Saturday. Denver's heavy QB pressure (NFL-best 68 sacks) and tight man-coverage in the secondary might be the perfect anti-Bills formula. Meanwhile the Buffalo defense has been a liability for much of the season. Bo Nix isn't quite Allen, but he's good enough to damage the Bills, and Denver is quite comfy in close games because of Nix delivering consistently in the clutch and the big plays of the defense. With Sean McDermott recently changing PKs, an edge not to be overlooked might be Broncos PK Will Lutz. Play Broncos

We saw on Sunday that results history is no guarantee of future results: Buffalo hadn't won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game at Miami yet won at Jacksonville. Now we look at Pittsburgh, which hasn't lost a Monday night game as host since Chuck Noll was still coaching in 1991...but also has six straight playoff losses. As usual, history will play little part in what happens tonight, though there is more resourcefulness on this Steelers side than recent playoff exits thanks to Aaron Rodgers, whose savvy should come in handy vs. the Texans' defense. Houston has won the past two years in this round but both games were at home, can CJ Stroud extend the margin over Rodgers? Play Steelers.

We have seen mostly higher scores in the Wild Card round, with only the Chargers' failure to react to anything the Patriots were doing defensively last night helping hold down that scoreline at Gillette Stadium. Otherwise, each previous wild card game had scorelines higher than this 38. The Houston defense is rugged but Aaron Rodgers remains nothing if not resourceful, and gets top target DK Metcalf back from suspension tonight. Meanwhile, there are playmakers on the Houston side led by CJ Stroud. There doesn't have to be a lot of action to get this scoreline above 38 tonight. Play Texans-Steelers Over.

Read little into Jim Harbaugh resting Justin Herbert and other starters last week at Denver other than getting healthy for the postseason as the objective. Herbert, in particular, is another week beyond his left hand surgery and should be closer to 100%, while the various bumps and bruises for other starters have had an extra week to recuperate. The Chargers' punishing defense also looks a good match for Drake Maye, who, through no fault of his own, was able to skate thru this potential MVP season with as little resistance as possible. That refers to the New England schedule, which broke incredibly well as the season-closing 13-1 run was achieved almost completely vs. also-rans, with a split against the Bills the most-challenging assignments. Play Chargers

It proved a good idea to wait on this one as the line has moved upwards from 3.5 to 6 throughout the week. The 49ers are no more banged up than they have been since mid-November when they uncorked a six-game win streak that almost netted home edge on the NFC side thru the playoffs, and late word has perennial All-Pro OT Trent Williams likely to go on Sunday. SF dealt as effectively as it could with key defensive injuries (Nick Bosa, Fred Warner in particular) this season. The Eagles repeated as NFC East champs almost by default, as neither the OL nor Saquon Barkley the same as year ago. Can Jalen Hurts outgun Brock Purdy, hot until hitting punishing Seattle last week? Play Niners

Never mind that the Bills haven't won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC title game at Miami, and Josh Allen 0-4 away in the postseason (three of those losses at KC). It wasn't quite the same Buffalo this season because of defensive deficiencies, especially vs. the run. How much the Jags take advantage remains to be seen but the Bills might not be at levels they've been the past couple of seasons. Meanwhile, the Jags are as hot, winning and covering eight straight, with Trevor Lawrence reborn in the Liam Coen offense, and ballhawks in the secondary threatening to boomerang any passes in their vicinities. Note Lawrence has a wild card round win, too (three years ago vs. Chargers). Play Jags ML

Had Romeo Doubs fielded that onside kick cleanly three weeks ago at Soldier Field, the Pack would have had two December wins over the Bears and the inside track to win the North. Credit Chicago and Caleb Williams for doing something with their second chance, but questions arose again last week when the Bears seemed all-out at home vs. the Lions but was blanked for 3 Qs en route to a bitter 19-16 loss. Of course the Pack lost four straight down the stretch but QB Jordan Love is back after missing the last two games and much of that Dec. 20 OT loss at Chicago, and this is a series mostly controlled by the Pack the past decade. Play Packers ML

It was six weeks ago that LA invaded Bank of America Stadium and in pole position for the home edge thru the NFC playoffs, but three Matthew Stafford giveaways were key in a 31-28 loss to the Panthers, who made a habit of close games all season. Stafford would subsequently implode again two weeks ago at Atlanta, while the LA defense has sprung some unexpected leaks the past six weeks and special teams have remained a recurring issue. It's doubtful the Panthers win the TO battle to the degree they did on November 30 but Bryce Young has been able to make enough plays to keep the Panthers close almost every week...and close is good enough at this price. Play Panthers

Though the Patriots know a Denver loss is unlikely vs. a scaled-back Chargers lineup, thus most probably closing the door on a chance for the top seed in the AFC playoffs, it doesn't seem to be in the DNA of Mike Vrabel's team to take it easy. New England has been rolling since late September, winning 12 of 13, and Drake Maye is closing in on the league MVP honors as he completes a spectacular sophomore season, and might be off of his highlight-reel game of the season when tossing 5 TD passes last week vs. the Jets. Meanwhile, after hitting the high note of beating the Bucs last week, not expecting Quinn Ewers or Miami to do much in the Foxborough cold. Play Patriots