The production has been decent for Derrick Henry as of late, but I think this number is too high on the road in Cleveland. The Browns have faultered a bit lately against the run, but they are still a top rush defense from a YPC and yards before contact standpoint. Henry will get plenty of volume, but I think he has a lot of insignificant runs mixed in against the Browns.

Best number is at Draftkings and I'd be willing to play this where it is at other books at 61.5. Marks appears to be in the lead role now and that played itself out last week with his 14 rushing attempts (63 rushing yards v Jags). This week he is projected for between 14-16 rushing attempts against a Titans Defense that has a very hard time defending the run (allowing almost 5 YPC). The Titans are at home, coming off a bye and may get Jeffery Simmons back, but I still think this number is too low for a Woody Marks workhorse role.

It's tough to tie an over to anything correlating with JJ McCarthy, but if McCarthy can't throw on the Chicago Bears at home in a controlled environment, then he can't throw period. Enter Justin Jefferson who gets a great matchup and how is averaging double digit targets over his last 6 games. The yardage has been pedestrian for Jefferson, and that's mostly due to accuracy issues from his quarterback, but this matchup lends itself to more efficiency on just as many targets.

You may be able to wait and catch a 2.5, but I'll go ahead and take the 3 at nearly even money. The Vikings have lost 3 out of 4, but their schedule has been very tough. Their one win was at Detroit two weeks ago and I think we'll see that team against the Bears this Sunday. The Bears have won 6 of 7, but have barely escaped against some bad teams. Now they get a solid team on the road and I think it may go sideways for them.

It's easy to look at this line and fall inlove with the favorite and I'm legitmately trying to find paths for the Jets to be competitive. I just don't see it. The Patriots stock continues to be high, and perhaps overvalued, but getting the depleted Jets on a short week isn't the spot where I'm looking to fade the favorite. I think the Patriots will be able to put up enough points behinds their potential MVP quarterback and I don't see much coming from the Jets offense, mostly thanks to a terrible QB situation. No back door covers in this one as we see the Patriots slowly pull away.

There are a lot of teams in the NFC making their mark as the team to beat, but the Eagles haven't really come around to doing that quite yet. Tonight is a great opportunity to do just that against a solid Packers team. The Packers haven't been great as of late and are dealing with some big injuries at the skill positions. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a bye, added impact players at the trade deadline and appear to be playing better on both sides of the ball. They're no stranger to winning on the road against good teams either.

Kyren Williams hasn't surpassed this rushing total in either of his last two games, but neither of those games were competitive. This division battle should be close, and while Stafford does have the ability to throw it all over the yard, I think the 49ers will respect the pass enough to provide some light boxes for Kyren. Add that Mykel Williams is out for the season and this injury ravaged defense may be even more prone to chunk runs. The expectation is that Kyren gets 15 carries and his success rate and matchup indicate that he'll pass this rushing number.

Tez Johnson has surpassed this yardage number in each of the last 4 games and has 15 targets over his last two games. The WR group for Tampa remains very banged up so you can expect Tez to remain on the field for almost all of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks. Add that the Patriots rush defense is stout and that Baker is slated to throw for between 240-250 yards and my expectation is that a lot of that goes the direction of Tez.

This line is on the move and there are some 13.5 lines in the market now (which I would avoid). I think TreVeyon Henderson will have a tough time running the ball against a stout Bucs rush defense. His rush yard total is in the high 40s, and while I do think he can maybe get their on volume, I don't think that volume equates to 15 carries. The Patriots are likely to lean on their passing game and a little bit of Terrell Jennings along with Henderson. Henderson is an unproven product on the road and may get a trailing game script. It's enough for me to take the under on his rush attempts.

It feels counterintuitive to play a completions prop as opposed to an attempts prop with an extremely inefficient quarterback against a stellar defense, but I think this number is a touch too low. If the Raiders have any sense whatsoever (admittedly an open question) then they'll ensure that Geno Smith gets the ball out fast and peppers his reliable targets (Bowers, Mayer, Tucker). I don't think the rush game will have any legs for the Raiders so it'll be on Geno, and in my opinion, the short area passing game. This prop survives both types of game scripts.

This is a principle play for me as this number is very high. And while most books have this number shaded to the over, I can see plenty of scenarios where the over falls short. It's a good matchup for completions as the Cardinals defense likes to funnel things underneath, but I think the Cardinals will have some tricks up their sleeve defensively coming out of the bye. I can also see the Cardinals trying to control some clock in an effort to limit possessions. Dak's volume has decreased ever so slightly the last few games and I like that to continue on MNF.

Michael Pittman's efficiency and volume has seen a jump over the last two games and that shouldn't change against an exploitable Steelers secondary (he's caught 15 of 18 targets over the last two games for 153 yards). Pittman should be leaned on by Daniel Jones in what is expected to be a high scoring, back and forth affair. Yes, Jonathan Taylor will also be leaned upon, but the path to destroying the Steelers is through the air and that is evidenced by Daniel Jones nearly 240 yard passing prop. Look for Jones to get the ball out quickly to his most experienced and reliable target. Best number at BetMGM. Happy to play the 55.5 number also in the market.

Unfortunately the only reasonable price on this prop is over at Fanduel as most books will make you pay a lot more juice. Daniel Jones and this offense have been leaning on the productivity of Jonathan Taylor all season, and yet, Jones has hit this number in each of his last 4 games. With the sketchy Steelers defense actually being decent against the run, I expect Daniel Jones to lean on his arm when in scoring position. Yes, JT will get his, but a lof the points will come through the air for the Colts.

Tyrone Tracy is a very capable running back and has plenty of experience as a solid starter dating back to last year. He should get the Cam Skattebo treatment from a volume standpoint and that means he won't need to be super efficient to eclipse this line (Tracy is projected to receive 13-14 carries). This game is expected to be a competitive one and with the 49ers defense being as injured as it is, I expect Tracy to be very involved and have a solid game.

If you're looking at the season trends for Dobbins, you'd be taking his over on his longest rush as he's only gone under on this prop once this season. Add to that he continues to get plenty of volume, but a lot of his efficiency this year has been against poor rush defenses. This week he's up against a Top 5 rush defense on the road, and while I think the volume continues, I don't think we see him break any long runs. Not only are the Texans a great rush defense, but they're also great at creating immediate contact on rush attempts. I think it will be tough sledding for Dobbins.