Kansas City
Chiefs
KC
Last 5 ATS
W/L4-0
ATS2-2
O/U2-2-0
FINAL SCORE
30
-
27
Las Vegas
Raiders
LV
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-1
ATS4-0
O/U2-2-0
Last 5 ATS
4-0
Win /Loss
3-1
2-2
Spread
4-0
2-2-0
Over / Under
2-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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The Raiders elevated Thompkins from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
The Raiders elevated Hemby from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Zuhn (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Paul Gutierrez of Raiders.com reports.
Thornton (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Patriots, Paul Gutierrez of Raiders.com reports.
White (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game at New England, ESPN's Paul Gutierrez reports.
Nailor (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at New England, ESPN's Paul Gutierrez reports.
Jeanty (ankle/foot) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots, with Raiders coach Klint Kubiak saying Friday that the running back will "do his best to go,"Levi Edwards of the Raiders' official site reports.
Jeanty (ankle/foot) is not on the field during Friday's media viewing period of practice, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Powers-Johnson (groin) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
White (ankle) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.
All things being equal, both offenses will find little success in the passing game. Where this game can and will be decided is in the run game. Plus, if I had to trust a QB vs pressure and playing within the margins, it would be Patrick Mahomes. I also give the RB edge to the Chiefs as well.
For a matchup of top 10 defenses -- the Chiefs rank fifth, the Raiders 10th for yards allowed -- this game has drawn a relatively high total. Combined, the teams have allowed just a dozen touchdowns. Vegas' vaunted pass rush could put QB Patrick Mahomes in scramble mode and result in excessive handoffs to RB Kenneth Walker Jr. Raiders TE Brock Bowers, the AFC's reigning Offensive Player of the Week, was nearly a scratch because of illness but is expected to give it a go. Four of the last five meetings have resulted in scoring totals in the 20s and 30s.
This should be fun. A couple of 3-0 AFC West teams meeting with the pedigree of the Chiefs going up against a surprising Raiders squad that some believe has overachieved. Miami gave Kansas City a bit tougher test than many expected last week, but that’s what happens in the South Florida heat. Las Vegas has largely taken advantage of weaker opponents, and the Chiefs bring a huge step up in a prove-it game for Kirk Cousins & Co. Patrick Mahomes should have little issue with the Raiders’ secondary, and Kenneth Walker III is going to get his, too. Wanted this at -4, but the line is headed in the other direction as kickoff closes in.
Playing the -104 available on Kalshi at -4.5 here. Strong movement off the look-aheads, where I still priced KC -6 on the road. Look for Rashee Rice to have a strong game and KC to cover.
I’ve been very encouraged by Kansas City’s passing offense and that bodes well for Rashee Rice’s outlook. Rice has gotten off to a somewhat slow start, but both he and Mahomes were working there way back from injuries and Week 3’s performance was very encouraging where Rice posted an absurd 41% TPRR, with a 7.4 aDOT. Rice’s underlying metrics are strong and it looks like the Chiefs passing game is beginning to click. Rice looks like the clear focal point of the passing attack, coupled with him running deeper routes than he has historically. This game could also be fun as well if the Raiders are able to remain competitive.
The Raiders have been the surprise of the season at 3-0, and yet the market isn't buying in by making them significant home 'dogs in this game. I like taking this instead of the full game spread as I expect Klint Kubiak to come in with a good game plan to hang tough in the first half, and the presence of Brock Bowers should make the Raiders tough to stop when pushing for points late in the half as we saw last week. With the Raiders only trailing for about four and a half minutes in the first half across three games so far, this is my preferred angle to play in this game.
In 2025, Kansas City faced an unusual schedule—they never had to play two straight road games in back-to-back weeks unless there was a bye in between. The last time the Chiefs went on the road for consecutive games without extra rest was back in November 2024. Las Vegas averages 13.0 offensive yards per point, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Raiders' defensive front has quietly put up strong numbers with a 50% pass-rush win rate and a 36% run-stop win rate. Both teams have a positive sack differential, and with Jackson Powers-Johnson likely to miss time, the Raiders are counting on Caleb Rogers, who’s a solid replacement at right guard. After running my model last night and on Tuesday, there’s 1.2 points of value.
