Los Angeles
Chargers
LAC
Last 5 ATS
W/L0-8
ATS0-7
O/U2-6-0
FINAL SCORE
16
-
24
Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L7-1
ATS6-2
O/U5-3-0
Last 5 ATS
0-8
Win /Loss
7-1
0-7
Spread
6-2
2-6-0
Over / Under
5-3-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Thompson (hamstring) did not practice Thursday.
Njoku (fibula) was a limited participant at the Chargers' practice Thursday.
Mitchell (hip) was limited at practice Thursday.
Harris (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.
Herbert (finger) doesn't appear on the the Chargers' injury report ahead of Monday night's game against the Ravens.
Kincaid (ankle) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.
Henley remains with the Chargers, as the Broncos have backed out of trading for the linebacker, Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com reports.
Bernard recorded six tackles (two solo) and a pair of pass breakups, including an interception, in Monday night's 23-6 win over the Vikings.
Gaines (calf) was a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
Dawkins (ribs) was a limited participant in Wednesday's walkthrough practice.
There should be some reversion to the mean for the Chargers, but I’m not sure if that’s going to come on the road across the country in Buffalo after starting 0-2 at home. The Bills have legitimate defensive issues, and it’s possible they are a tad overrated considering neither the Texans nor Lions have strong defenses, but they have scored 72 points in two weeks compared to 28 for the Chargers. By margin, Buffalo is averaging +7.5, while LA is -12.0. If the Bills can move the ball with regularity on the ground, Josh Allen will carve up the Chargers with DJ Moore and Keon Coleman both active.
Buffalo’s offense looks absolutely unstoppable and the Chargers look clueless. This appears to be a good time for Los Angeles to get away after two straight disappointing home losses. Their offense should be able to generate some points against a Bills defense that is allowing 31 points per game. Buffalo’s offense is due for some regression and could be overlooking this Chargers team based off their first two weeks. Justin Herbert has been very good in the underdog role with this spread plus, Buffalo’s wearing those ugly gray uniforms.
The Buffalo Bills have a team total of 29.5 this Sunday vs. the Chargers. We expect points from the Bills and two of their receivers are questionable, and likely game-time decisions (DJ Moore and Keon Coleman). Kincaid has started this season on fire, with 12 receptions, 225 yards, and one touchdown in the first two games. He has 26% target share and 32% air yards share. Look for him to be a focal point again on Sunday. And I love this +185 price for a stud tight end on a high team total to find the endzone.
It’s still officially Dalton Kincaid season over at PropStarz HQ and I’m going back the ultra talented Tight End in a game that could feature plenty of passing volume. Kincaid has been sensational through the first two weeks and has seen his route participation increase and it’s yielded huge results and efficiency. He gets another strong matchup against a Chargers pass defense that has been bad. Conversely the Chargers run defense has been good, making them something of a run funnel. Kincaid could see additional targets in the event both DJ Moore and Keon Coleman are unable to suit up for this game. If that is the case, this line likely jumps into the low 60s. Either way Kincaid is set up very nicely.
A great setup for a workhorse RB, coming off extra rest with a likely positive game script. Cook only had 13 carries in Week 1, but bounced back at home in Week 2 with 21 carries in a positive game script. It wouldn't shock me if Cook got to that 20+ number again this week. As long as this game is even remotely competitive, we shouldn't see much of Ray Davis or Ty Johnson. I'll note that the Chargers rush defense has been solid through two weeks which is why I'm going with the volume play on attempts, although I think he can also get there on his rush yardage.
If the Chargers upset the Bills -- or give the Bills a game -- I won't be entirely surprised. It's a classic "they suck the Bills are awesome, we just have to take the Bills" situation. But if the Chargers are in the mix here, it's because they get better on offense, not better on defense. Which means the Bills will also have to throw the ball quite frequently. The Chargers defense gave up multiple deep balls to the Raiders and you can paint shades of Tre Tucker with Josh Palmer, particularly the way he's been involved this year down the field. At this price I am very interested.
So far, new Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel isn't flexing much. They’ve stayed under the total in both their games and haven't covered a spread while losing both games. Justin Herbert looks frustrated and tired when he's out there. They're playing the Bills, who are 2-0 straight up and against the spread and have gone over both their games. If the Chargers want to hang with the Bills, they’re going to have to do something with that offense, and I think they will. Expect both teams to score near the 30s and get this game over the total.
The Chargers are an absolute mess right now, and staring at a brutal schedule that could leave them 0-9 in the blink of an eye. With two straight no-shows at home against what are expected to be two of the weaker teams in the league, I have no confidence keeping this one close on the road against what has looked like one of the best teams in the league. The scoring probably starts at 30 for Buffalo, and the Chargers haven't shown they can score 20, so I expect this line to rise in the market as people continue to sour on Jim Harbaugh's squad.
