Detroit
Lions
DET
Last 5 ATS
W/L9-7
ATS8-9
O/U10-7-0
FINAL SCORE
19
-
16
Chicago
Bears
CHI
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-6
ATS10-6
O/U8-9-0
Last 5 ATS
9-7
Win /Loss
11-6
8-9
Spread
10-6
10-7-0
Over / Under
8-9-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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The Lions are not about to go quiet into the night, especially against Ben Johnson. This is evidenced by Amon-Ra St. Brown suiting up. While this was not originally playable at a field goal, it has grown to the point where there is value with Detroit, which is not going to turn the ball over six times like it did last week. The entire team needs a bounce-back performance, and Dan Campbell should be able to motivate the Lions to a strong finish. Detroit won this game 52-21 in Week 2, but all we’re predicting is the visitors finishing within four points. Chicago is playing for the No. 2 seed, but it generally does not win by margin against teams that move the ball.
FanDuel. Luther Burden has emerged as arguably the lead target for Caleb Williams and the Bears, especially with Rome Odunze remaining out. The rookie has cleared this line in each of his last three games, and should be poised to do so again. The Lions, whose secondary is decimated by injury, are allowing the seventh most yards to opposing wide receivers. I do think the Lions will play their starters as long as possible (as Dan Campbell has done before), and there is enough motivation for the Bears to keep throwing (Williams approaching 4,000 yards). I’d bet this up to over 59.5 yards.
Burden only has 2 TDs this season, but scored last week against the 49ers. Burden’s Anytime TD odds are set at a modest +140 because the breakout rookie wideout is getting way more usage late in the season. Burden gets a great matchup against a man coverage-heavy Lions defense, that hasn’t been able to overcome all the injuries to their defensive backs. I like the Bears to put up points, and for Burden to close the season on a high note.
Luther Burden has emerged as one of the most talented rookie wideouts this year, and has been feasting as of late. Burden is over this receiving yards mark in 3 straight games, and has seen 6+ targets in 4 straight. The Bears are still playing to secure the NFC’s #2 seed, and it doesn’t seem like starters will be resting in this Ben Johnson Vs. Dan Campbell showdown. Detroit’s secondary is in shambles, with injuries to DBs Terrion Arnold, Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, and Thomas Harper making their pass defense very thin. Burden has a 25+ yard grab in each of his last 3, and could burn the Lions for a couple big plays to cash this.
Bears running back Kyle Monangai is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and he continues to receive nearly half of Chicago's running back carries. He's facing a Lions team that's given up 6.5 yards per carry over its last three outings. That run defense has declined significantly without Brian Branch. In addition, Detroit won't have Alim McNeill, Alex Anzalone or Thomas Harper on Sunday.
There's plenty of variance that comes with passing touchdown props, but I'm willing to put said variance to the test against a terrible Lions defense and in a game that has a total north of 50. Caleb Williams has hit this number in each of his last four games. While one of those games was against the questionable 49er defense, the other three were against the Packers (twice) and the Browns. The main fear is rushing touchdowns for the Bears, but I like our chances of Caleb slinging at least two with his arm. Notable that the Bears have plenty to play for and that the Lions will push the Bears by rolling out their starters.
There are quite a few unknowns in Week 18 but I believe we do know that even with the season essentially finished, Dan Campbell will still come with everything he has. Unfortunately, everything he has is not a lot with all of the injuries but still, I believe this will be 100% effort out of Campbell's squad. Just by the numbers, the Lions are the better team. Again, it is about health and if they have enough to overcome the holes on defense. All the pressure in on Chicago - to win and secure the #2 seed. Meanwhile, Detroit can let it fly with no pressure whatsoever. If the Lions don't turn the ball over, they'll keep it close and possibly win it outright.
The Lions are coming off a six-turnover performance looking to end the season on a good note, but I'm not sure how much fight they have left in a disappointing season with a beat-up defense and offensive line. Making matters worse is that they have to go outdoors in freezing temperatures for this game against their former offensive coordinator, who should be pulling out all the stops to secure the No. 2 seed. I think the market is treating the Lions as a better, healthier team than they've shown down the stretch, as the Bears have a strong home-field advantage and they've looked like the better team for weeks. This line needs to be at least 3, and I'd actually make it even higher.
Gordon posted four solo tackles, including 3.0 sacks, and two forced fumbles during the Bears' 31-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Walker went without a target while playing 10 of the Bears' 77 snaps on offense in Sunday's 31-23 win over the Falcons.
Odunze brought in three of four targets for 39 yards in the Bears' 31-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Loveland brought in six of seven targets for 65 yards and a touchdown in the Bears' 31-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Burden secured all eight targets for 95 yards in the Bears' 31-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Swift rushed 16 times for 44 yards and two touchdowns and brought in four of five targets for 26 yards in the Bears' 31-23 win over the Falcons on Sunday.
Johnson rushed 13 times for 51 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 31-23 win over the Falcons. He caught both of his targets for 34 yards.
Jackson (hip) is doubtful to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons.
Lewis returned to Sunday's game against the Falcons, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Lewis (head) is being evaluated for a potential concussion and is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Falcons.
