It’s slim pickings in Week 18, as evidenced by playing this near coin flip of a line. Since Week 3, the Panthers have only lost to the top teams in the NFL (and the Saints). The Buccaneers have not defeated a winning team since Oct. 12, going 1-7 overall (0-8 ATS) since Nov. 9; they only have two wins all season by 4+ points. Dave Canales is the better coach, Carolina has the better run game and Bryce Young has been playing better (mostly due to Baker Mayfield’s health). Considering Tampa Bay can barely run, and the visitors have a stronger pass defense, this should be another close game. So let’s take the points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers with their playoff lives on the line could not get a win. They have lost three straight games by a field goal or less. Even with today’s game against the Panthers out of their hands, I believe they will step up after losing seven out of eight. Carolina’s Bryce Young is coming off just a 54 yards passing against Seattle, and on the road has led the offense to an average of just 16 points. Take Tampa Bay.

Tet McMillan could lock up his rookie of the year award with one more productive game to close the season. He gets a great matchup here against a Bucs secondary that is in disarray. Tampa Bay is missing starting CBs Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum. When these teams played in Week 16, McMillan had 6 Rec/73 Yards/1 TD on 10 targets. With the NFC South, a playoff berth, and the ROTY award on the line, I’m expecting another big game from the Panthers WR1.

While Carolina has been alternating wins and losses since Week Seven, all the Bucs have done is lose seven of their last right, with nary a spread cover in that stretch. Part of the blame is on a depleted OL that has hindered the running game much more than a year ago, and Baker Mayfield has suffered, tossing interceptions in four straight games, and seven across the past seven weeks. Meanwhile, Bryce Young has had his ups and downs on the Panthers side, but unlike Mayfield, he's only thrown one pick across the past four games. The Panthers have at least been playing to a pattern; all the Bucs have been doing is losing, which on Saturday could cost them the NFC South. Play Panthers

DraftKings. Nick Scott has been a tackling machine for the Panthers over the last 10 games, clearing this line eight times, including in each of the last six games. The Bucs are a plus opponent for Scott, averaging the seventh most tackle opportunities per game to opposing safeties (per PFF data). Scott, who plays more as a deep safety, had 10 tackles in the first meeting with the Bucs, and Tampa Bay has allowed seven of their last 10 opponent’s deep safety to clear this line. I’d bet this up to -135.

I get that Bucky Irving is the RB1 for the Bucs. But Rachaad White still gets an average of 45% of the snaps since Irving returned in Week 13. Two weeks ago, in this same matchup against the Panthers, White had 45 rushing yards on just five carries. White has cleared this line in three of the last four games on limited carries. And as long as he gets three or four carries, I believe he'll clear this very low line again.

I am a little jaded at the Bucs because I worked at the Tampa Tribune forever. Ran the desk during their first Super Bowl. True story: You see those newspapers the SB winners hold up right after? WE WIN or whatever? I invented that. Well, I was told to. We were the first. Honest to God. 2001. Giants-Ravens in Tampa. I remember my boss saying make it memorable so we can market the paper, and am like how am I supposed to do that not knowing who wins? Guess I did (pic of a ring and the Lombardi). Suppose that's my legacy.

Tampa Bay is a disjointed product. Many of their star players haven't even been on the field for even half a season. They found ways to have success without them and now with some of them back, integrating them back into the flow has only caused more chaos. Let's not forget, when they were winning, early in the season, it was in minor miracle fashion, pulling games out in the final minutes of the 4th quarter. Carolina is healthier and can rush the football. That is a good formula on a sloppy, wet field in Florida for Week 18. Grab the full 3 points but I feel it won't be needed as the Panthers win the game outright.

What really stands out to me the most about how the Panthers are playing heading into this game, is how well Bryce Young is playing. His ability to create on both ends of offense is pushing me toward the Panthers side of things. Especially when you consider how out of sync the Bucs have looked on offense the last couple of weeks.

Dowdle is only over this receiving yards mark in 6 games this season, but has seen an increase in target share as of late. Dowdle has 3+ targets in 5 of the last 7 games, and had 4 receptions on 6 targets against Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago. He fell just short of this receiving yards total with 14, but got the volume he needed. Bryce Young took 2 sacks and 9 QB hits in that game, so I expect him to get the ball out quicker this time around. Dowdle should be the beneficiary of check-downs and screen passes against a blitz-heavy Todd Bowles defense.

Baker Mayfield is over this mark in 9/16 games this season. He soared over his rushing yards line in each of the first 3 games to start the year, but stopped taking off in the next 3 after sustaining some injuries. Mayfield is now back to his running ways, going for 49 rush yards against Panthers when they played just 2 weeks ago. Mayfield is the 9th most sacked QB this year, and has had to scramble out of necessity. A playoff berth and the NFC South are on the line, so I expect Mayfield to try to put the team on his back. Look for him to use his legs when the play breaks down.

Chris Godwin played more snaps (53) than any other Bucs wideout last week. He looks fully healthy and has caught four-plus passes in four straight games, including seven catches last week. The Panthers are weaker in the slot than on the outside. Look for Godwin to be a big factor in this must-win spot.

Baker Mayfield had 44 Pass Attempts last week, but that was more of a matchup and game script situation against Miami than anything. He's only gone over this Pass Attempt line in two of his last seven games and that includes only 26 pass attempts against Carolina in Week 16. In contrast to last week's game against Miami, the best path to attack Carolina is via the run (evidenced by a combined 33 rush attempts from Charbonnet and KWIII last week). Also notable that no QB has gone over this line against CAR since Week 9. In a likely neutral or positive game script, expect a lot of work from the Tampa RBs in this one. I like Baker's under 21.5 completions line as well.

DraftKings. In this win or go home spot for the Buccaneers, I expect Baker Mayfield to rely on his veterans in the passing game. Chris Godwin has cleared this line in each of the last four games, and I expect that trend to continue against the Panthers. Over the last three games, since Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan’s return to the lineup, Godwin’s average depth of target is 5.4 yards. The higher percentage throws have helped him stay efficient, catching 16 of his 18 targets over that span. The Panthers are tougher on outside receivers with cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. Godwin has lined up in the slot for 62% of his snaps over the last three games.

I'm not saying the Panthers should be favored or anything in this game, but Carolina just beat the Buccaneers and this is going to be a tight game on Saturday afternoon to kick off Week 18. I agree completely with the market move to make the Bucs less than three-point favorites, so I'm jumping on the last remaining full field goal before it disappears as well. Personally I think the Panthers win outright, but definitely believe they stay within a field goal.

Tet McMillan has had a very strong rookie season and is the betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Tet is 71 yards shy of 1K and he gets a matchup versus a Bucs defense that’s been getting absolutely torched as of late. Tampa ranks 19th in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition the to 26th in Sucesss Rate. However since Week 10 they rank 27th in EPA and 28th in Success Rate. In a must win game with the playoffs on the line, I like Tet to have a big game versus a struggling defense.

Neither of these teams is playing its best football heading into this critical game, and in those situations I like taking a full field goal and expecting the standard outcome will be a close, low-scoring game. Carolina is probably the team playing better at the moment even after a blowout loss to a great Seahawks team, as the Bucs have lost four straight to the Saints and Falcons at home as well as the Panthers and Dolphins on the road. They've won twice this year by more than three points, and the offense did next to nothing in one of those wins. The Bucs haven't been a team worth laying three points against a competitive opponent since October.