George Kittle has 67 or more receiving yards in each of his past five games, and his longest catch has gone for 24 or more yards in four straight. The Colts give up 8.64 targets per game to opposing tight ends, so Kittle should have multiple opportunities. With Ricky Pearsall out, and with Indy's success in stopping the run, I'm expecting 8-10 targets for Kittle in a plus-matchup.

Despite being significantly depleted on defense, the 49ers have largely figured out how to win this season -- against second- and third-tier teams. Their deficiencies are impossible to overcome against the upper echelon, but these Colts are losers of four straight. The Philip Rivers experiment surprisingly worked against a frustratingly inconsistent Seahawks team. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh are a different story. The spread has fallen two full points from its peak into a range that pushes a lot of value onto the surging visitors, who have won and covered four straight games.

I'm taking the leap here...I'm willing to back old man Rivers in a spot where he's facing a significant defensive downgrade compared to last week's debut. The 49ers have been vulnerable against the run and struggle to get pressure; a perfect recipe for a Colts team looking to possess the football and move methodically. While the other side of the ball does concern me given cluster injuries in the Colts' secondary this is just too big a number in what should be a strong homefield advantage for Indy. Don't be surprised if the Colts have a chance to win this outright late.

Michael Pittman is over this number in 9 games this season, and fell just shy last week with 26. In Phillip Rivers’ first start back out of retirement, he connected with Pittman for 3 receptions on 5 targets. The 49ers will be without CB Renardo Green, and have ranked bottom of the league in pressure rate all season. Rivers certainly looked his age in his return at 44 years old, but he was serviceable in a narrow defeat against the Seahawks. If the Colts find themselves in a trailing game script, Pittman should see 5-8 targets and go over this modest receiving yards total.

Brian Robinson is over this rushing yards mark in 5 of his last 6 games, and fell just short of his total last week. He has gotten a steady workload as San Fran’s RB2, seeing 7+ carries in 5 straight games. If the 49ers have the lead in this game, they should mix in Robinson to lighten Christian McCaffrey’s load, and chew up clock. The 49ers have two huge games against the Bears & Seahawks to close out the season, so a positive game script bodes well for the Niners RB2 in this spot.

Jauan Jennings has scored in 3 straight games, with 4 total TDs in that span. Jennings is typically Brock Purdy’s first read inside the red zone. He should get some opportunities tonight against a Colts secondary that is missing both starting CBs in Sauce Gardner & Charvarious Ward. I gave this out on The Early Edge at +170 a couple hours ago, and the line is already down to +145. Grab it now.

The Colts have lost four straight and risk elimination from the playoff race because they're not scoring enough points. There are valid reasons...injuries chief among them, and vet Philip Rivers, pulled off of the scrap heap after five years in retirement, is the third QB to start in the past four games. So, there's your main reason for the downturn, though with the exception of a loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago, Indy has been within four points in the other losses. We're thus a bit reluctant to back the 49ers, as a close SF win is possible, with the Niners controlling their destiny in the NFC playoff race. We just think this scoreline has a hard time clearing 46. Play 49ers-Colts Under

This seems like a low number for such a star player, but McCaffrey has had 57 yards or fewer in eight of his 14 games. He has been wildly inefficient this year, with his 3.6 yards per carry ranking 50th out of 52 qualified players. The Colts are second in yards per rush and have activated DeForest Buckner for tonight's game. McCaffrey should need a lot of volume to get over this number, and I think it's more likely the 49ers attack via the passing game. If San Francisco can build a big early lead, McCaffrey could also cede time to Brian Robinson in the second half to keep him fresh for the stretch run.

FanDuel. I’m back on Michael Pittman’s under long reception prop, after cashing in on it last week. In his 2025 debut, Philip Rivers only completed two passes that traveled more than 10 air yards, and only eight of his 27 attempts traveled that distance. The arm strength just isn’t there, and this once again is a tough matchup for Pittman. The 49ers allow the sixth fewest receiving yards per game to outside receivers at 86.2 yards, on the fifth fewest yards per target (7.40; data per Fantasy Points). I’d bet this down to under 14.5 yards.

Tyler Warren is having a fantastic season and while he got off to a strong start, the rookie TE has struggled recently. Losing Daniel Jones was a big blow to Warren and the Colts offense, however with 44 year old Philip Rivers under center there is still reasons to be optimistic. In Rivers season debut last week, Warren led the team in targets. Rivers historically has targeted his Tight Ends at a high rate, in addition to the 49ers being absolutely dreadful defending the position and this sets up a nice spot for Warren.

Colts safety Nick Cross is having his second straight strong season as he finishes his rookie deal. He's recorded seven or more stops in four of his last five games. The 49ers are the ideal opponent for safeties, generating a league-high 231 tackles for the position entering Week 16. (Minnesota had generated the least, 123). San Francisco ranks third in the NFL with 64.7 plays per game. Over their last three games, with the offense mostly healthy, the 49ers have averaged 34:59 time of possession, second only to the Rams. Look for the 49ers to sustain drives, enabling Cross to produce tackles.

DraftKings/Caesar’s. Nick Cross is over this tackle line in eight of 14 games this season, averaging 6.9 combined tackles per game. Playing 58% of his snaps from the tackle box or defensive line, this is the optimal opponent for tackle opportunities for Cross - the 49ers allow the most tackles to opposing safeties, at 16.5 per game (per PFF). A box safety has cleared this line against the 49ers in seven of the last eight games, and I don’t envision the Colts offense with Philip Rivers sustaining drives against the 49ers defense. I’d bet this up to -150.

George Kittle has only played 9 games but is still 2nd on the team in catches. When he is healthy, the volume is there. He has seen 24 targets over the last three games and is now facing a Colts squad that is bottom ten in DVOA against the tight end and has allowed an average of 6 catches and 66 yards a game to the position. They're allowing the 4th most targets and 5th most yards. Plus, Ricky Pearsall is banged up which could give us a boost in volume as well. Brock Purdy back under center has been huge as well for Kittle -- he's seen an average of 2 more targets and 25 more yards with QB1.

The Colts put up an impressive fight against the Seahawks in Seattle last week, but the close game was tied solely to holding Seattle to field goals instead of TDs as Sam Darnold struggled. The defense still gave up six scoring drives in the matchup, and I would expect the 49ers to do a better job of converting their trips into field goal range into touchdowns. The Colts offense looked DOA with Philip Rivers at QB last week as he lacked arm strength and the ability to push the ball downfield. Robert Saleh should have a field day scheming against such a limited QB, and I could see Indy held to single digits as a result. A surging 49ers team likely deserves to be -7.

This week with the Colts, expect a conservative passing game and the NFL’s No. 6 rush attack playing a defense that is last in quarterback sacks and second to last in interceptions, with a turnover margin of -5 on the season. This is it for the Colts' playoff hopes. They're going to have to play one of their better defensive games of the year and hope to get by with Philip Rivers. I like the Colts getting points, and for that to happen, the under is also in play.

Colts QB Philip Rivers became the NFL's heartwarming story of the season with his return from a five-year retirement. Now let's look at a telling stat: 120 yards passing Sunday, with a measly 4.4 yards per attempt. He avoided throwing downfield for a reason: reduced arm strength. RB Jonathan Taylor heard his number called 28 times (25 carries, three receptions), and he barely reached 100 yards combined. Count on San Fran coach Kyle Shanahan to figure out how to keep the Colts out of the end zone. The Niners have averaged 31 ppg during their four-game SU win streak and should have no trouble against a so-so defense to clearly outscore the limited Colts.