Both teams enter this game off a bye, and the return of Patrick Surtain Jr. for the Broncos basically negates Terry McLaurin being inserted back into the Commanders lineup. Washington did play better defensively against Miami two weeks ago, but it is down multiple defensive starters in a game that should largely be contested on the ground given Bo Nix’s inconsistency and Jayden Daniels’ continued absence. Denver has not won its games by margin this season, but Washington has lost four of the last five by 21+ points. In fact, six of its eight losses this season have come by more than a touchdown. The Broncos defense will be the best unit on the field, and it should thrive over 60 minutes.
I like the Commanders to be competitive Sunday night with Terry McClaurin back, but this number is too low for Broncos rookie RJ Harvey. He should get a ton of opportunities against a Washington defense that ranks 25th in rushing efficiency defense and 27th in explosive rushes allowed. The Commanders also give up the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing backs -- one of Harvey's biggest strengths. With J.K. Dobbins out, look for Harvey to be very productive coming out of the bye.
Washington has the second-worst defense in the NFL, allowing 387 yards per game, and they also have the 29th-ranked pass defense, allowing 249.5 yards per game. During the Broncos' eight-game winning streak, Bo Nix has gone over 240 yds five times. Now, against a defense that has holes in it, Nix should do it again with a smaller target of 223. Washington allows an NFL-worst 6.6 yards per play. Bo Nix over 223 yards passing.
B365 at -115. You could probably make the case for a few Commanders’ under on their long reception prop, but I’m going with Deebo Samuel. The receiver is only under in four of ten games this season, but three of four when he plays alongside Terry McLaurin, who is active. With McLaurin on the field, Deebo has been relegated to the slot for 75% of his snaps, where his already tiny average depth of target (5.2 yards overall) shrinks to 3.8 yards (per PFF). He should struggle to separate today against the Broncos - Denver runs the third most man, per Fantasy Points Data. Deebo’s separation score and win rate against man coverage rate is in the bottom third of the league’s qualified wide receivers.
The Broncos are 7-3 to the under this season and 3-1 to the under when playing on the road. Denver will get back elite CB Patrick Surtain. Their defense has held 7 different opponents under 20 points, and should be able to keep Marcus Mariota in check. Washington’s defense isn’t very good, but they do play a good deal of zone coverage, which Bo Nix has been less efficient against. Both of these teams come into this game off a bye, which historically trends to the under.
Yes the Broncos get Patrick Surtain back, but Washington also gets key reinforcements including Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne and Will Harris. Thanks to its inconsistent offense, Denver has a slew of narrow wins over bad teams. Look for another on Sunday Night Football.
There is possible foul weather tonight in Landover but we hardly see where that helps the host Commanders. Washington has been in an extended slump, tis last win on October 5 in Inglewood vs. the Chargers, with six losses on the spin since. Terry McLaurin is apparently back to active duty tonight, but still no Jayden Daniels, as Marcus Mariota gets another start at QB after being at hem for the last four consecutive Washington defeats. Though not always scoring style points, Denver keeps winning (eight straight), gets back star CB Patrick Surtain tonight, and has beaten NFC teams seven straight times since last season (6-1 vs. line in those games). Play Broncos
FanDuel. This is a short line for Courtland Sutton, who is averaging 59 receiving yards per game, having cleared this line in seven of eleven contests. Yes, a lot of targets are going Troy Franklin’s way, but I don’t see Sutton needing a ton on Sunday for us to win on this line. The Commanders have been torched by receivers out wide, allowing the third highest yards per target (10) and the fourth highest yards per route run (2.33, per FantasyPoints Data). Without JK Dobbins, the Broncos run game hasn’t quite come together, and this reads as a get right spot for Bo Nix and the passing game, coming out of the bye. I’d bet this to over 52.5.
Siding with a sizable favorite that wins narrowly will be nerve-wracking. Of the Broncos’ eight consecuive SU wins, here are the margins in six of them: one, two, three, three, three, four. On the other hand, the Commodores have failed to cover once during their current six-game SU slide. While both teams have regained a modicum of health, Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains idled, while Denver All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II is expected to return after three games out. With the league’s 14-ranked offense, the Broncos should be able to find sufficient points against the No. 31 defense for a cover.
Both these teams come off their bye, but it'll likely be another week until we see Jayden Daniels while the Broncos will get key defenders like Patrick Surtain II and Alex Singleton back. That gives the Broncos a great shot at holding their opponent under 20 points, which they've done in 7 of 11 games. The Commanders haven't topped 14 in three of their last four, a stretch that has largely featured Marcus Mariota at QB. With Denver's defense tops in third down and red zone success rate, I can't see Washington's offense finding another gear this week.
Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday that Stidham will be the Broncos' backup quarterback to begin the 2026 season, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports.
Chaisson (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, Zach Selby of the Commanders' official site reports.
Head coach Sean Payton said Wednesday that Dobbins is "moving well" and on track to play Week 1 against the Chiefs on Monday, Sept. 14, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.
Croskey-Merritt (lower body) is dressed for Tuesday's practice, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports.
The Commanders re-signed Moreau on Monday.
Jacobs (undisclosed) reverted to Washington's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Maguranyanga (undisclosed) reverted to the Commanders' injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Moore (undisclosed) reverted to the Commanders' injured reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Jones (undisclosed) reverted to the Commanders' injured reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
Sanders (undisclosed) reverted to the Broncos' injured reserve list Monday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.
