Buffalo
Bills
BUF
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-5
ATS8-9
O/U9-8-0
FINAL SCORE
26
-
7
Pittsburgh
Steelers
PIT
Last 5 ATS
W/L9-7
ATS9-8
O/U9-8-0
Last 5 ATS
11-5
Win /Loss
9-7
8-9
Spread
9-8
9-8-0
Over / Under
9-8-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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Oliver (hip) was limited during Thursday's practice.
Moore (shoulder) was listed as a non-participant in Thursday's practice.
Dowdle (toe) didn't practice Thursday, Alan Saunders of Steelers Now reports.
Warren (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Thursday while Rico Dowdle (toe) didn't practice, Alan Saunders of Steelers Now reports.
Pittman (foot) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice, Alan Saunders of Steelers Now reports.
Coleman (ankle) wasn't spotted at the start of Thursday's practice, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Moore (shoulder) was not spotted on the practice field at the beginning of Thursday's session, Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic reports.
Warren (shoulder) was in uniform and participating during the portion of Thursday's practice open to the media, Nick Farabaugh of PennLive.com reports.
Dowdle (toe) was out of his walking boot Thursday but wasn't in uniform at practice, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.
Oliver (hip) did not participate in Wednesday's practice.
There’s no telling what the Steelers or Aaron Rodgers are going to put on the field in any given week, but it is clear that the Bills are thin in protection of Josh Allen and capable of being picked apart defensively. Mike Tomlin is 23-8-3 ATS as a home underdog, and Pittsburgh must realize by now that its best chance of winning games is to run the ball early and often, which would allow it to control the clock at home. Buffalo will be without at least five starters on offense, including two linemen, which gives the Steelers a huge opportunity to dominate the edge with pressure. The hook would have been nice, but at least we’re still getting the field goal.
B365. Dawson Knox will once again fill in as the primary tight end for the Bills with Dalton Kincaid sidelined. He’s cleared this line in two of three games since Kincaid went down, and this is a perfect opportunity to back the tight end in a matchup against the Steelers, who allow the sixth most receptions to tight ends.
Buffalo will be missing both LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown in this game. The Bills O-line struggled to protect Allen last week against the Texans vaunted pass rush, and now they will have to face T.J Watt & Alex Highsmith. After taking 8 sacks last week, I expect Allen to take off when he feels the heat. Allen is over this rushing yards total in 7/11 games this season. I might even consider laddering it up to 50+ (+350).
The Bills rank 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.3), and starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (elbow) has been ruled out. Warren has cleared this number in three straight. Last week against Chicago, Kenneth Gainwell was far more effective than Warren. But it should be noted Warren had been on the injury report with an ankle issue. This week Warren was not on the injury report, so I'm expecting more explosion.
Jaylen Warren has an excellent matchup on Sunday, as the Bills are a run funnel. The Bills' defense allows 5.3 yards per carry and 118.4 yards per game to enemy running backs. The Bills are even worse against the run vs. 12 and 13 personnel, which the Steelers run very often. Warren has exceeded this rushing prop in five of his last six games, and I expect him to exceed it on Sunday, too.
Buffalo has been Jekyll & Hyde quite a bit this season and overly reliant on Josh Allen. The Steelers should be able to run the ball and open up the passing game for Aaron Rodgers. These teams are actually much closer to one another from a power ratings standpoint than one may realize - because the Bills are perceived as such an electric offense. When I crunch the numbers, I actually get Buffalo as a 2.5 point favorite - getting more than a field goal with the home team Steelers is a big deal in my opinion.
QB Aaron Rodgers appears in for Pittsburgh. (Though, wth A-Rod, one can never be too sure.) OTs Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are confrmed out for Buffalo. With Blls WR Curtis Samuel joining them in street clothes, while WR Joshua Palmer and TE end Dalton Kincaid are questionable, the burden on even QB Josh Allen seems too great. The Bllls have dropped three road games SU, falling short of 20 points in each. Given Rodgers' sore wrist, possible inclement weather and Bufallo's shoddy rush defense, the Steelers can control the game on the ground. They have followed their last 20 losses with 14 ATS victories.
The Bills struggled offensively last Thursday when facing an elite defensive front, and while the Steelers aren't on that same level anymore, they certainly still have defenders who can get after the passer. The Bills have major injury concerns on the O-line with both tackles missing practice to begin the week, including Dion Dawkins being in concussion protocol, and they might be held under 20 points for the third time in four weeks. The Steelers offense is 11th in scoring and has scored 23+ in seven of its last eight games, including against the Vikings, Browns, Packers and Colts. The Bills, who continue to suffer injuries on defense, should be among the weaker units Aaron Rodgers has faced all year. Sprinkle Steelers money line?
